The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia VOLUME III Missile, DPRK and ROK Nuclear Forces, and External Nuclear Forces AUTHORS Anthony H. Cordesman and Ashley Hess A Report of the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy JUNE 2013 Blank The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia VOLUME III Missile, DPRK and ROK Nuclear Forces, and External Nuclear Forces AUTHORS Anthony H. Cordesman and Ashley Hess A Report of the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy June 2013 ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK About CSIS—50th Anniversary Year For 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has developed solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. As we celebrate this milestone, CSIS scholars are developing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn has chaired the CSIS Board of Trustees since 1999. Former deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre became the Center’s president and chief executive officer in April 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2013 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data CIP information available on request. ISBN: 978-1-4422-2519-0 (pb); 978-1-4422-2520-6 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org 301-459-3366 | www.rowman.com Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ VII THE MISSILE WARFARE BALANCE ........................................................................................................... VII THE NUCLEAR AND CBRN BALANCE ....................................................................................................... IX THE ROLE OF CHINESE, US, AND OTHER OUTSIDE MISSILE AND NUCLEAR FORCES ...................................... X THE BALANCE OF US AND CHINESE MISSILE AND PRECISION STRIKE FORCES ............................................ XII THE BALANCE OF WEAPONS OF MASS EFFECTIVENESS AND “OFFENSIVE” VS. “DEFENSIVE” WEAPONS ......... XV THE BROADER BALANCE OF US AND CHINESE STRATEGIC AND THEATER NUCLEAR FORCES ........................ XVI US POLICY OPTIONS ............................................................................................................................ XVI VII. KOREAN MISSILE FORCES ...................................................................................... 1 OVERVIEW OF DPRK MISSILE DEVELOPMENTS ........................................................................................ 1 Arsenal and Capabilities .............................................................................................................. 1 DPRK MISSILE PROGRAMS .................................................................................................................... 8 The Hwasong and Toksa Programs ............................................................................................. 8 The Nodong ................................................................................................................................ 10 The Taepodong Program ........................................................................................................... 11 The Musudan ............................................................................................................................. 18 The KN-08 .................................................................................................................................. 19 DPRK MISSILE FACILITIES .................................................................................................................. 22 DPRK AIR DEFENSE AND COUNTER-SPACE CAPABILITIES ....................................................................... 25 ROK MISSILE DEVELOPMENT .............................................................................................................. 26 The Early Program – The NHK Program ................................................................................... 26 The 2001 MTCR and the Hyunmu-3 Cruise Missile ................................................................ 27 Further Missile Limitation Agreement Revisions ..................................................................... 28 ROK MISSILE DEFENSE AND SPACE ..................................................................................................... 29 Missile Defense ......................................................................................................................... 30 Space .......................................................................................................................................... 32 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................... 32 VIII. KOREAN WMD FORCES ......................................................................................... 36 DPRK CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS .............................................................................. 37 DPRK CHEMICAL WEAPONS ................................................................................................................ 38 Western Estimates of DPRK Stockpiles and Capacity ............................................................ 39 Korean Estimates of DPRK Stockpiles and Capacity .............................................................. 41 Guesstimates of Key Locations ................................................................................................ 42 DPRK BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ............................................................................................................. 48 Capabilities ................................................................................................................................. 48 Facilities ..................................................................................................................................... 50 DPRK NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENTS ........................................................................................................ 54 Motivations for Acquisition ........................................................................................................ 54 Assessments of Capabilities: Plutonium and Uranium ........................................................... 55 Nuclear Weapons and Warhead Developments ...................................................................... 58 Moves Toward Sanctions .......................................................................................................... 73 Key Current Issues, Weapons Design, and Further Tensions ................................................ 77 ROK and US Response .............................................................................................................. 83 Japanese Response .................................................................................................................. 85 Russian and Chinese Response ............................................................................................... 86 Further DPRK-ROK-US Tensions ............................................................................................... 87 iv Anthony H. Cordesman and Ashley Hess Halting Operations at the ROK-DPRK Joint Industrial Complex at Kaesong .......................... 89 De-escalation .............................................................................................................................. 92 DPRK Facilities ........................................................................................................................... 95 ROK CHEMICAL DEVELOPMENTS ....................................................................................................... 102 ROK BIOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS..................................................................................................... 102 ROK NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENTS ........................................................................................................ 103 Initial Weapons Research ....................................................................................................... 103 Reprocessing and Enrichment Activities ............................................................................... 104 2010-2013 and the ROK Nuclear Development Debate ..................................................... 105 Civilian Facilities and the 123 Agreement ...........................................................................