+ Center for Strategic and International Studies Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy 1800 K Street, N.W. • Suite 400 • Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1 (202) 775 -3270 • Fax: 1 (202) 457 -8746 Web: http://www.csis.org/burke • Email: [email protected] Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development Main Report Anthony H. Cordesman Martin Klei ber Burke Chair in Strategy Burke Chair Researcher Working Draft, Revised: September 7, 2006 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. Cordesman and Kleiber: Chinese Military Modernization 9/7/06 Page ii Table of Contents I. ASSESSING CHINA’S ARMED FORCES ................................ ................................ ............................ 1 CAPABILITIES AS AN INDI CATOR OF INTENTIONS ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 1 II. UNDERLYING RESOU RCES FOR CHINA’S SEC URITY CAPABILITIES ................................ 3 ECONOMIC TRENDS ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 3 Figure 1: China’s annual GDP growth rates in % (1975 -2006) ................................ ................................ ........................ 4 Figure 2: GDP growth vs. national government revenue growth ................................ ................................ ...................... 5 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 5 Figure 3: Demographic Trends – total population and population growth (1975 –2004) ................................ ................. 7 CURRENT SOCIAL ISSUES ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 7 III. CHINA’S SECURIT Y FORCES ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 9 CHINESE DOCTRINE ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 9 CHINESE OVERALL COMMAND STRUCTURE ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 11 THE ORGANIZATION OF CHINESE MILITARY AND SECURITY FORCES ................................ ................................ ........... 12 OPERATIONAL COMMAND OF THE CHINESE MILITARY ................................ ................................ ................................ 12 Figure 4: Command Structure of PLA forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 15 MANPOWER TRENDS ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 16 Figure 5: PLA and security forces manpower (in thousands) ................................ ................................ ......................... 18 Figure 6: PLA Personnel structure, service share of total ................................ ................................ ............................... 19 MILITARY SPENDING ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 19 Figure 7: Military spending as percentage of GDP, 1989 -2004 ................................ ................................ ...................... 23 Figure 8: Chinese reported components of military spending 2004 ................................ ................................ ................ 23 Figure 9: U.S. Estimate of China’s Defense Budget 1 994 -2006 ................................ ................................ ..................... 24 Figure 10: U.S. Estimate of China’s Defense Budget 1994 -2006, adjusted for inflation ................................ ................ 25 Figure 11: Share of GDP for Chinese reported and U.S. high and low estimates, 1989 -2004 ................................ ........ 26 Figure 12: Chinese Defense Budget Growth Rate vs. GDP Growth Rate, 1995 -2006 ................................ .................... 26 MODERNIZATION ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 27 The Uncertain Pattern of Change ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 27 The Chine se Technology Base ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 28 Focus on C4SI and Information Technology ................................ ................................ ...................... 28 ARMS TRADE AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER BY SERVICE ................................ ................................ ............................ 29 Key Shifts in Naval Systems ................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 30 Key Shifts in Air Force Systems ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 30 Figure 13: Chinese vs. Russian -made holdings of advanced navy systems ................................ ................................ .... 31 Figure 14: Chinese vs. Russian -made holdings of advanced air force weapon syst ems ................................ ................. 31 IV. PLA GROUND FORCE S................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 32 COMMAND STRUCTURE ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 32 Figure 15: The Standard Organization of a PLA Group Army ................................ ................................ ....................... 33 MANPOWER ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ 34 Figure 16: PLA ground forces manpower vs. People’s Armed Police numbers ................................ ............................. 35 1985 -2006 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 35 GROUND FORCE DOCTRINE AND STRATEGY ................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 36 FORCE STRUCTURE ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 36 Figure 17: PLA ground forces: Force Structure 1985 -2006 ................................ ................................ ............................ 36 ARMORED FORCES AND MAIN BATTLE TANKS ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 42 Main Battle Tanks ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 42 Figure 18: Chinese main battle tanks: Ration of modern to total MBTs* ................................ ................................ ....... 43 Figure 19: Holdings of total and modern* tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and artillery 1985 -2006 ........................... 45 Mechanized Infantry and Light Tanks ................................ ................................ ................................ 46 Figure 20: Ratio of Total to Modern Holdings of AIFVs (incl. light tanks) ................................ ................................ .... 48 Anti -tank Weapons ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 49 ARTILLERY ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ 49 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. Cordesman and Kleiber: Chinese Military Modernization 9/7/06 Page iii Towed Artillery ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 49 Self -propelled artillery ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 50 Multiple Rocket Launchers ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 50 Figure 21: Holdings of towed vs. SP vs. MRLS artillery pieces ................................ ................................ ..................... 51 Figure 22: Firing Ra nges of Chinese Artillery Systems (Towed, and SP howitzers, and MRLS) in meters ................... 53 AIR DEFENSE ARTILLERY ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 53 ARMY AVIATION ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 53 BALLISTIC MISSILES ................................ ................................ ...............................