BASEBALL AND THE LEFT HANDED HITTER A THESIS Presented to The Faculty of the Department of Economics and Business The Colorado College In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Bachelor of Arts By Addison Alan DeBoer May/2010 BASEBALL AND THE LEFT HANDED HITTER Addison Alan DeBoer May, 2010 Mathematical Economics Abstract This thesis is designed to explain the unordinary amount of left-handed hitters found in Major League Baseball (MLB). The focus of this study is to determine the appropriate amount of left-handed hitters a MLB team should employ in order to maximize their success. The driving force behind this study is that the average amount of lefties in MLB is substantially higher than the amount of lefties found in everyday society. The hypothesis is that a team should employ between 33% and 55% of their hitters to be left- handed in order to achieve a team's optimal rate of success. This study will include all 30 MLB baseball teams over the span often years including more than 4100 hitters. Two models will be used to link the effect left-handed hitters have on the total number of runs a team scores, and also a team's season long winning percentage. The regressions produced R-squared values of .91 and .45 respectively. While the model was able to prove several different variables do significantly affect runs scored, and winning percentage the results were inconclusive in relating left-handed hitting to either dependent variable. For that reason the research could not support the hypothesis that MLB teams should employ between 33% and 55% left-handed hitters. KEYWORDS: (Major League Baseball, Left-handed Hitter, Runs Scored, Winning Percentage) ON MY HONOR, I HAVE NEITHER GIVEN NOR RECEIVED UNAUTHORIZED AID ON THIS THESIS Signature TABLE OF CONTENTS I INTRODUCTION 1 Literature Review 4 Player Value 5 Player Productivity 8 Natural Handedness 14 Conclusion 18 II THEORY 19 The Left-Handed Hitter 20 Team Success in MLB 21 Sample and Time Frame 22 Model 1 23 Dependent Variable 23 Hitters 24 Independent Variables 24 Model 2 27 Dependent Variable 28 Team 28 Independent Variables 29 Method 34 Conclusion 36 III DATA 38 Data Resources 38 Data Analysis 39 Variable Explanation 41 Conclusion 41 IV RESULTS 42 Regression Results 42 Model 1 43 Model 2 45 Conclusion 47 V CONCLUSION 48 Regression Conclusions 48 Further Research 51 Final Discussion 51 SOURCES CONSULTED 53 LIST OF TABLES 2.1 New York Yankees Batting Order and OPS for 2009 Season 31 2.2 Washington Nationals Batting Order and OPS for 2009 Season 31 2.3 Expected Signs for Independent Variables for Model 1 35 2.4 Expected Signs for Independent Variables for Model 2 36 3.1 Descriptive Statistics 40 4.1 Regression Results: Model 1 44 4.2 Regression Results: Model 2 46 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my teacher, advisor, and friend, Kristina Lybecker for all her guidance and encouragement throughout this thesis. Your support throughout was greatly appreciated and will not be forgotten. I would also like to thank my family for their never-ending support not only throughout my college career, but also throughout my whole life. Lastly, I would like to thank my parents for everything they have sacrificed over the years in order to support me. Without you guys I can't imagine where I would be today. Everything I've ever accomplished I owe to you. CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Introduction Major League Baseball (MLB), has been commonly referred to as America's pastime for over a century. It has been a focal point in the sporting world for the United States since its expansion in 1869.' This study has two purposes. The first question that will be answered is do left-handed hitters increase a team's run production or winning percentage? Secondly this study will look to uncover just how many lefties a team should use to maximize their run production and winning percentage. The focus of this study will be in MLB baseball performance, based upon the batting handedness of each team's players. This topic brings interest to players, managers, general managers, and fans alike. Each has their own reasons for their interest in this topic. For instance a player would like to know how many lefties a team is looking to employ when signing his contract to better understand the demand for him on that team. Knowing the appropriate number of lefties a team is looking to employ could help a player decide which team is the best fit for him when signing a new contract. The manager could use this information in deciding which players he wants to use on a daily basis, and from this research determine how many left-handers he should use throughout 1 "Baseball Almanac - The Official Baseball History Site," [cited 2010]. Available from http://www.baseball-almanac.com/. 1 the season. Along the same lines a general manager could use this study to help determine how many lefties they want to employ from season to season. Knowing how many lefties to hire in order to maximize statistics and winning percentage would be extremely valuable in selecting their roster year in and year out. Finally, a fan could appreciate this knowledge simply from their general interest in the game. Since fans are essentially the revenue generators for this industry, their right to this knowledge is as strong as any of the aforementioned others. These reasons, among others play to the importance of this study. Fundamentally this research can help determine the effect lefties have in today's game. The role of a left-handed hitter has gradually evolved just as the game of baseball has over the past century. It has become prominent in Major League Baseball to have left-handed hitters in your line-up in order to succeed. This was seen very clearly when manager of the Chicago Cubs Lou Pinella said, "The only thing I talked about last season was a need for a left-hand bat... We didn't bring Edmonds back and Edmonds hit quite a few homeruns, so we needed a left-handed bat. That's it."2 Without question the role of a left-hander in MLB is one that cannot be overlooked and this study will shed light on that. In a game where the livelihood of everyone involved relies on production many studies have been done to explain it. There have been countless studies on professional sports and the production of players relating to their age, race, contract, and countless other characteristics. As explained above a left-handed hitter plays a very large role in baseball yet none of these studies have identified exactly what that role is. These studies, 2 "Chicago Tribune Online - Chicago Cubs," [cited 2010]. Available from http://www.chicagotribune.com/. done in baseball, basketball, cricket, football, hockey, and soccer, will provide beneficial background for this research. Many factors must be accounted for in order to place a value to the left-handed hitter. First, factors that relate to player, or even employee, productivity must be accounted for. Variables affecting production never seen on the score sheet such as experience, physical attributes, position played, age, contract, among a host of others must be considered. Inside team production variables along with the number of left- handed hitters include, winning percentage, homeruns, hits, strikeouts, stolen bases, and walks among others. It also must be noted that each individual statistic used will not incorporate each individual event, or even each player's season totals. This study will use team averages and totals to get a wider view of the role lefties play in MLB. The goal of this study is to determine the appropriate number of left-handed hitting players a team should utilize to maximize their run production and winning percentage. The regressions in this study will test the hypothesis that each team should employ between three and five left-handed hitters to maximize success. This section has illustrated the importance of this study and has laid the framework for determining the value of lefties. The rest of this chapter will discuss previous research that pertains to player value, player productivity, and handedness. The following chapter will review relevant economic theory and explain the methodology and data used in this study. Chapter III will discuss the data set for this study in detail, while Chapter IV will cover regression results and their meanings. Finally Chapter V will provide conclusions based upon the results of this study while providing suggestions for possible future research to this topic. Literature Review The purpose of this section is to review the literature on player and team performance in Major League Baseball. There have been many studies done on player productivity and their value to the team, but few studies have incorporated physical attributes into the equation. Economists Gwartney, and Charles Haworth (1974) studied the impact of a player's ethnicity on a team's winning percentage, but studies of a player's natural handedness is relatively untouched by the research world.3 Many economists such as Bradbury (2007)4, and Berri (1999)5 have found ways to evaluate an athlete's value, such as attributing monetary or statistical values to a player's worth, based on the effect he personally has on a team's winning percentage. Differentially this element of their research was based strictly on their on field and court performances, never accounting for a player's natural hand preference. Other studies, such as the one done by Oorlog (1995), on marginal revenue and a player's salary tried to relate a player's value to his marginal revenue, generated through ticket sales and broadcast revenue.6 This study tried to put a fiscal value on each player, and relate a player to a strict monetary value.