Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs Republic of Indonesia JABODETABEK Urban Transportation Policy Integration Project Phase 2 in the Republic of Indonesia Annex 06: Travel Demand Forecast October 2019 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) ALMEC Corporation I N J R 2 0 - 0 0 4 Exchange rates used in the report EUR 1.00 = IDR 15,610.00 USD 1.00 = IDR 14,181.97 JPY 1.00 = IDR 131.69 (as of September 2019) JABODETABEK Urban Transportation Policy Integration Project Phase 2 in the Republic of Indonesia Annex 06: Travel Demand Forecast Table of Contents Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background and Objectives ................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 Background ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 Objectives ............................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Demand Forecast Workflow ................................................................................................ 1 1.2.1 Overall Framework ................................................................................................. 1 1.2.2 Activity-Based Modelling Structure ....................................................................... 2 Chapter 2 SOCIOECONOMIC FRAMEWORK .......................................................................... 11 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 11 2.2 Population .......................................................................................................................... 11 2.2.1 Population Profile ................................................................................................. 11 2.2.2 Population Projection ........................................................................................... 14 2.2.3 Distributing Population to TAZ ............................................................................ 16 2.3 Employment and School Enrollment ................................................................................. 34 2.3.1 Workers at Residential and Workplace Profile .................................................... 34 2.3.2 Workers at Residential and Workplace Projection ............................................... 43 2.3.3 Students at Residential and School Place Profile ................................................. 51 2.3.4 Students at Residential and School Place Projection ............................................ 57 2.4 GDP and GRDP ................................................................................................................. 63 2.5 Household Income ............................................................................................................. 65 Chapter 3 ZONE SYSTEM AND NETWORK DEVELOPMENT .............................................. 69 3.1 Coverage Area for Travel Demand Forecast ..................................................................... 69 3.2 Zone System ...................................................................................................................... 70 3.3 Vehicle Type Classification ............................................................................................... 71 3.4 Project Year ....................................................................................................................... 72 3.5 Study Network ................................................................................................................... 72 3.5.1 Road Network ....................................................................................................... 72 3.5.2 Public Transport Network .................................................................................... 74 Chapter 4 MODEL DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................... 77 - i - JABODETABEK Urban Transportation Policy Integration Project Phase 2 in the Republic of Indonesia Annex 06: Travel Demand Forecast 4.1 Explanatory Variables ........................................................................................................ 77 4.1.1 Individual Status ................................................................................................... 77 4.1.2 Household Income ................................................................................................ 77 4.2 Model Estimation Results .................................................................................................. 78 4.2.1 Daily Activity-Travel Pattern Choice ................................................................... 79 4.2.2 Time-of-Day Choice ............................................................................................. 82 4.2.3 Mode and Destination Choice .............................................................................. 90 4.2.4 Additional Sub-Models ......................................................................................... 95 4.3 Application to a Microsimulation Model ........................................................................... 98 4.3.1 Auto/Motorcycle Ownership Model ..................................................................... 99 4.3.2 Activity Rescheduling ........................................................................................ 101 4.3.3 Joint Tour/Activity Generation ........................................................................... 102 4.3.4 Household Maintenance Tour Allocation ........................................................... 104 Chapter 5 MICROSIMULATION .............................................................................................. 105 5.1 Population Synthesis ........................................................................................................ 105 5.1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 105 5.1.2 Population Synthesis Methodology .................................................................... 105 5.1.3 Reproduction Check for Synthesized Population ............................................... 112 5.1.4 Summary ............................................................................................................. 117 5.2 Input Preparation .............................................................................................................. 117 5.3 Activity-Based Models .................................................................................................... 118 5.4 Intra-Household Interaction Rules ................................................................................... 119 5.5 Output Processing ............................................................................................................ 119 Chapter 6 TRUCK AND EXTERNAL OD ................................................................................ 122 6.1 Cargo Traffic Model ........................................................................................................ 122 6.1.1 Truck OD Survey................................................................................................ 122 6.1.2 Truck OD Matrix Development.......................................................................... 123 6.2 External OD ..................................................................................................................... 130 6.2.1 Cordon Line Survey............................................................................................ 130 6.2.2 External OD Matrix Development...................................................................... 131 Chapter 7 NETWORK ASSIGNMENT ..................................................................................... 133 7.1 Key Features .................................................................................................................... 133 - ii - JABODETABEK Urban Transportation Policy Integration Project Phase 2 in the Republic of Indonesia Annex 06: Travel Demand Forecast 7.2 Assumption ...................................................................................................................... 133 7.2.1 Value of Time (VoT), Occupancy, and PCU ..................................................... 133 7.2.2 Tariff System and Public Transport Parameter .................................................. 135 7.2.3 Capacity and Speed Relationship ....................................................................... 136 7.3 Validation......................................................................................................................... 138 Chapter 8 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECAST ............................................................................ 143 8.1 Do-Minimum and RITJ Case ........................................................................................... 143 8.1.1 Do-Minimum Case ............................................................................................. 143 8.1.2 RITJ Case ........................................................................................................... 147 8.2 Scenario Development ..................................................................................................... 149 8.2.1 Basic