Russian Arms Transfers to East Asia in the 1990s Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by the Swedish Parliament. The staff and the Governing Board are international. The Institute also has an Advisory Committee as an international consultative body. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Professor Daniel Tarschys, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Oscar Arias Sánchez (Costa Rica) Sir Marrack Goulding (United Kingdom) Dr Ryukichi Imai (Japan) Dr Catherine Kelleher (United States) Dr Marjatta Rautio (Finland) Dr Lothar Rühl (Germany) Dr Abdullah Toukan (Jordan) The Director Director Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Signalistgatan 9, S-169 70 Solna, Sweden Cable: SIPRI Telephone: 46 8/655 97 00 Telefax: 46 8/655 97 33 E-mail: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.sipri.se Russian Arms Transfers to East Asia in the 1990s SIPRI Research Report No. 15 Alexander A. Sergounin and Sergey V. Subbotin OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 1999 Oxford University Press, Walton Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford New York Athens Auckland Bangkok Bombay Calcutta Cape Town Dar es Salaam Delhi Florence Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madras Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi Paris Singapore Taipei Tokyo Toronto and associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Oxford is a trade mark of Oxford University Press Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © SIPRI 1999 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press. Within the UK, exceptions are allowed in respect of any fair dealing for the purpose of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. Enquiries concerning reproduction in other countries should be sent to SIPRI. The paperback edition of this book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, re-sold, hired out or otherwise circulated without the publisher’s prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Data available ISBN 0–19–829576–6 ISBN 0–19–829577–4 (pbk.) Typeset and originated by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Printed in Great Britain on acid-free paper by Biddles Ltd, Guildford and King’s Lynn Contents Preface vii Acknowledgements viii Acronyms x 1. Introduction 1 I. Russian policy towards East Asia 1 II. The research agenda 3 III. Sources 6 IV. Structure of the book 9 2. The determinants of Russian arms trade policy 12 I. Introduction 12 II. The domestic environment 13 III. The international environment 39 Table 2.1. Indicators of economic decline in the Russian 14 defence industry, 1992–94 3. The management of Russian arms transfers 44 I. Introduction 44 II. The decision-making system 45 III. Arms deals with countries in East Asia 61 IV. Management: production and finance 63 V. Management: problems and solutions 64 Figure 3.1. The Russian arms export decision-making system, 46 1992 Figure 3.2. The Russian arms export decision-making system, 54 1994 Figure 3.3. The Russian arms export decision-making system, 58 April 1997 Figure 3.4. The Russian arms export decision-making system, 60 August 1997 4. China 70 I. Introduction 70 II. Land forces 72 III. The air force 73 IV. The navy 78 V. Military technology transfer 83 vi RUSSIAN ARMS TRANSFERS TO EAST ASIA VI. Defence industry conversion 89 VII. Other programmes 90 VIII. Conclusions 92 Table 4.1. Value of the transfers of major conventional weapons 72 to China by the leading suppliers, 1990–97 5. South-East Asia 93 I. Introduction 93 II. Myanmar 94 III. Laos 96 IV. Malaysia 96 V. Indonesia 101 VI. Singapore 103 VII. Thailand 104 VIII. Viet Nam 105 6. North and South Korea 107 I. Introduction 107 II. North Korea 107 III. South Korea 111 7. The security implications of Russian arms transfers to 116 East Asia I. Introduction 116 II. Bilateral relations 117 III. Regional relations 121 IV. Global relations 124 V. Conclusions 128 Table 7.1. Russian armed forces and equipment in the Far 118 Eastern Strategic Theatre, 1986 and 1996 Table 7.2. Chinese armed forces in the regions adjacent to 120 Russia, 1986 and 1996 Appendix. Register of transfers of major conventional 132 weapons from Russia to countries in East Asia, 1992–98 Index 137 Preface In 1994–96 Alexander A. Sergounin carried out a research project entitled Arms Transfers and Security in East and Southeast Asia, sponsored by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and administered by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). A key role in the execution of this project was played by Dr Ian Anthony, then Leader of the SIPRI Arms Transfers Project, who provided useful advice for the preparation of earlier drafts of this research report. The report is both the end-product and a continuation of this project, with emphasis on Russia’s role in the arms trade with countries of East Asia. Arms and military technology transfers are one of the main instruments of Russia’s security strategy in East Asia. Why does Russia lay emphasis on arms exports? What is its motivation? Is it an attempt to help the troubled domestic defence industry, a vehicle for alliance politics, a tool in the regional power struggle or something else? How are decisions on arms transfers taken in Russia? What are the legal and institutional frameworks? What are the programmes of military–technical cooperation with the East Asian nations? How do they affect the balance of power in the region? What are the security implications? This book addresses these questions. There are some grounds for assuming that Russia relies on the arms trade not only because of domestic problems but also because of the lack of other effective instruments of policy towards East Asia. For this reason, it is important to make Russia, as well as China, an equal participant in regional multilateral institutions, thus eliminating the grounds for temptation to use destabilizing measures for self-affirmation in the area. Inclusive rather than exclusive policies and multilateralism rather than power politics can help to ensure that Russia and other regional actors are constructive and help to pave the way to establishing a cooperative security regime in East Asia. It should be noted that this book was written in the mid-1990s, before the major economic crisis hit many of the East Asian economies. This, as well as the continuing crises and changes in Russia, will undoubtedly have an impact on some of the trends described here. While it could not document the dramatic developments of the last years of this decade, the book makes an important contribution to our understanding of the early phases of arms transfer policy in the new Russian Federation. Adam Daniel Rotfeld Director of SIPRI October 1998 Acknowledgements This volume is the result of several projects carried out in close cooperation and consultation with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The work on this project was truly collegial: this report also reflects the results of previous studies conducted by Sergey V. Subbotin. SIPRI, under its Director, Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld, has provided invalu- able help to the authors in many ways. The authors are indebted to Dr Ian Anthony, former Leader of the SIPRI Arms Transfers Project, who played a key role in execution of the project with the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) by being its principal consultant. The authors extend special thanks to Siemon T. Wezeman and Pieter D. Wezeman for their extensive and insightful comments and suggestions as well for sharing SIPRI Arms Trans- fers Project data with us. It is a pleasant duty to mention here our gratitude to some colleagues who have helped us with especially useful advice or materials for this report. They include: Ambassador Michael Armacost, President, the Brookings Institution; Dr Frank Fischer, Professor of Political Science, Rutgers Uni- versity; Dr Bates Gill, former Leader of the SIPRI Project on Security and Arms Control in East Asia; Dr Bjørn Møller, Leader of the Military Restruc- turing Project, Copenhagen Peace Research Institute (COPRI); Dr Jerry Segal, Senior Fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS); Dr Dmitry Trenin, Research Fellow, Moscow Carnegie Centre; Digby Waller, Defence Economist, IISS; Dr Howard J. Wiarda, Professor of Foreign Policy Studies, University of Massachusetts; Håkan Wiberg, Director, COPRI; Susan Willett, former Research Fellow, COPRI; and Ruan Zongze, Deputy Director, World Politics Studies, China Institute of International Studies. We would like to thank Eve Johansson for her sharp eye and outstanding editorial assistance. Our fruitful cooperation has lasted for several years and resulted in a number of successful book projects. Her kind assistance was especially valuable as neither author is a native English-speaker. Connie Wall edited the book in the last phase of the project.