C O R P O R A T I O N MIRANDA PRIEBE, BRYAN ROONEY, NATHAN BEAUCHAMP-MUSTAFAGA, JEFFREY MARTINI, STEPHANIE PEZARD Implementing Restraint Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA739-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0630-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover graphic by Yuriy Panyukov/Adobe Stock Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface In recent years, there has been growing interest in rethinking the U.S. approach to the world. This report discusses one alternative to the cur- rent U.S. approach, a realist grand strategy of restraint, which has long been prominent in the academic security studies community. To help leaders and the public evaluate this option, which has now entered the policy discourse, this report describes how U.S. regional security poli- cies would change if the United States adopted this grand strategy. For analysts, we also offer a framework for identifying the set of security policy issues that any grand strategy needs to inform for each region, focusing on conditions under which the United States would use force, U.S. relationships with potential adversaries and allies, military pos- ture, and security cooperation activities. The report also identifies unanswered questions about a grand strategy of restraint and proposes next steps for clarifying the policy implications of such a strategy in each region. The research in this report was completed in November 2020 and was conducted within the RAND Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy. The center’s mission is to inform the debate about the U.S. role in the world by more clearly specifying new approaches to U.S. grand strategy, evaluating the logic of different approaches, and identifying the trade-offs each option creates. Initial funding for the center was provided by a seed grant from the Charles Koch Institute. On going funding comes from RAND supporters, and from founda- tions and philanthropists. The center is an initiative of the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Divi- iii iv Implementing Restraint sion (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the U.S. Intelligence Community, U.S. State Department, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on the RAND Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy, see www.rand.org/nsrd/isdp/grand-strategy or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Tables .............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................... xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Overview of the Debate About U.S. Grand Strategy .......................... 5 Overview of a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint ...........................11 Approach .......................................................................... 23 Outline of This Report ......................................................... 26 CHAPTER TWO Europe ............................................................................ 27 U.S. Policy Toward Russia ...................................................... 28 Alliances and Partnerships ...................................................... 38 Posture ..............................................................................41 Security Cooperation and Assistance ...........................................45 Summary of Next Steps to Develop Prescriptions for U.S. Policy Toward Europe .............................................................. 46 CHAPTER THREE The Asia-Pacific ..................................................................49 U.S. Policy Toward China .......................................................52 v vi Implementing Restraint U.S. Policy Toward North Korea ...............................................63 Alliances and Partnerships ...................................................... 68 Posture ..............................................................................73 Security Cooperation and Assistance ...........................................78 Summary of Next Steps to Develop Prescriptions for U.S. Policy Toward the Asia-Pacific .....................................................81 CHAPTER FOUR The Middle East..................................................................83 U.S. Policy Toward Iran ..........................................................85 U.S. Policy Toward Syria and Iraq ............................................ 90 U.S. Policy Toward Terrorism and Intrastate Conflict .......................95 Partnerships ....................................................................... 98 Posture ........................................................................... 102 Security Cooperation and Assistance ......................................... 106 Summary of Next Steps to Develop Prescriptions for U.S. Policy Toward the Middle East ................................................... 108 CHAPTER FIVE South Asia ....................................................................... 111 Ongoing Operations in Afghanistan ......................................... 112 U.S. Policy Toward Terrorism and State Collapse .......................... 114 Partnerships ...................................................................... 117 Posture ............................................................................ 121 Security Cooperation and Assistance ........................................ 122 Summary of Next Steps to Develop Prescriptions for U.S. Policy Toward South Asia ........................................................ 125 CHAPTER SIX Next Steps for Operationalizing a Grand Strategy of Restraint ...... 127 Findings .......................................................................... 127 Recommendations for Developing the Policy Implications of a Grand Strategy of Restraint ....................................................... 130 Final Thoughts .................................................................. 139 References ...................................................................... 141 Figures 1.1. Alternative Grand Strategies ......................................... 6 1.2. Focus of This Report ................................................25 vii Tables 2.1. Identifying Threats and Clarifying When the United States Would Use Force Against Russia ..................................32 2.2. Developing U.S. Policy Toward Peacetime Relations with Russia ..................................................................37 2.3. Developing U.S. Policy Toward Alliances and Partnerships in Europe .............................................................41 2.4. Operationalizing Plans for U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Europe ................................................................ 44 2.5. Designing a New Security Cooperation Policy Toward Europe ................................................................ 46 3.1. Alternative Recommendations for U.S. Asia-Pacific Security Policy Proposed by Advocates of Restraint .......................51 3.2. Identifying Threats and Clarifying When the United States Would Use Force Against China ...................................59 3.3. Developing U.S. Policy Toward Peacetime Relations with China ..................................................................63 3.4. Developing U.S. Policy Toward North Korea .................. 68 3.5. Developing U.S. Policy Toward Alliances and Partnerships in the Asia-Pacific ....................................................73 3.6. Operationalizing U.S. Posture Changes in the Asia-Pacific ....79 3.7. Designing Security Cooperation and Assistance Policies Toward the Asia-Pacific .............................................81 4.1. Developing U.S. Policy Toward Iran