CDP2018/PLEN/6.e Committee for Development Policy 20 th Plenary Session United Nations New York, 12-16 March 2018 Conference Room 6 Vulnerability Profile of Solomon Islands 1 Contents Solomon Islands: graduation road map at a glance 1. Introduction: historical and institutional context 2. The Solomon Islands and the per capita income criterion 3. The Solomon Islands and the human assets criterion 3.1 Proportion of undernourished in the population 3.2 Child (under five) mortality 3.3 Secondary school enrolment 3.4 Adult literacy 4. The Solomon Islands and the economic vulnerability criterion 4.1 Economic remoteness 4.2 Merchandise export concentration 4.3 Environmental vulnerability 4.4 Victims of natural disasters 4.5 Instability of agricultural production and of exports of goods and services Annex: The graduation criteria and the graduation rule 2 Solomon Islands: graduation road map at a glance March 2015: The Solomon Islands, for the first time, met two of the three thresholds of graduation from LDC status (see p. 6 and p. 9). The Committee for Development Policy (CDP) accordingly found the country pre-eligible for graduation, a finding which brought no immediate change to the entitlement of the Solomon Islands to LDC status. The CDP will re-examine the potential graduation case of the Solomon Islands in its next triennial review of the list of LDCs in March 2018. March 2018: If the Solomon Islands again meets two of the three graduation thresholds, the CDP will normally find the country fully eligible for graduation, and accordingly recommend graduation from LDC status in its report to the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). July 2018: ECOSOC will normally endorse the CDP's recommendation to graduate the Solomon Islands from LDC status. December 2018: The UN General Assembly, in turn, will normally endorse the recommendation to graduate the Solomon Islands, through a resolution formally stating the UN decision to take the country out of the list of LDCs. On the day of adoption of this resolution, the Solomon Islands will enter the standard (normally three-year) grace period during which it retains its LDC status and is expected to negotiate, with its development partners, a "smooth transition" to post-LDC status. NB: The adverb "normally" qualifying the action of the CDP, ECOSOC and the General Assembly indicates that the relevant decisions by these three bodies are expected to take place in accordance with a "normal" calendar. However, flexibility from this normal timeframe can take place at the discretion of any relevant body if that is deemed to be in the interest of the country under review: (i) the CDP may delay its decision to recommend the graduation of a country; or it may never resolve to make this recommendation; (ii) the Economic and Social Council may delay its action on a CDP recommendation to graduate a country; or it may never resolve to endorse this recommendation; (iii) the General Assembly may avail itself of the possibility of delaying its endorsement of a recommendation to graduate the country, or it may never resolve to endorse this recommendation; it may also, if it endorses the recommendation, decide to grant the country a grace period of a duration different from the standard three-year prescription. December 2021: At the end of the grace period, the Solomon Islands will officially graduate from LDC status. Yet it may continue, for a period of time, to have the benefit of LDC treatment under "smooth transition" measures. There are two types of smooth transition measures: (i) those that are negotiated with development partners on a case-by-case basis; and (ii) those that are systemic, i.e. established for all graduating LDCs and automatically extended to them. 3 1. Introduction: historical and institutional context The Solomon Islands was added to the list of LDCs in 1991 1, the year in which the notion of graduation from LDC status was conceptualized by the Committee for Development Planning (CDP). It was also in 1991 that the first major revision of the criteria for identifying LDCs or graduation cases took place. In its 2015 review of the list of LDCs in March 2015, the Committee for Development Policy (CDP) observed that the Solomon Islands was meeting two of the three graduation thresholds, namely, the graduation lines relevant to the per capita income and human assets criteria. The CDP accordingly found that the Solomon Islands was meeting " eligibility criteria for graduation for the first time " 2 , thereby demonstrating pre-eligibility for graduation from LDC status. In accordance with the graduation rule, the Committee stated that the Solomon Islands would in theory "be considered for graduation at the next triennial review [of the list of LDCs] in 2018 " if the country's performance by then remained above two graduation thresholds, thereby normally indicating full eligibility for graduation. Table 1 indicates the parameters which brought the CDP to observe the pre-eligibility of the Solomon Islands for graduation from LDC status. This Profile was prepared in accordance with General Assembly resolution 59/209 of 20 December 2004, which decided that "after a country has met the criteria for graduation for the first time, UNCTAD is mandated to prepare a vulnerability profile on the identified country to be taken into account by the Committee for Development Policy at its subsequent triennial review"3. It is an input to the work of the CDP in answering the question of the graduation of the Solomon Islands from LDC status. Sections 2, 3 and 4 examine the performance of the Solomon Islands under the graduation thresholds relevant to the three criteria for identifying LDCs, namely the per capita income criteria, the human assets criterion, and the economic vulnerability criterion, respectively. Table 1 1 Addition of the Solomon Islands to the list of LDCs became official on 20 December 1991, through General Assembly resolution 46/206. Four other countries were granted LDC status through the same resolution: Cambodia, Madagascar, Zaire, Zambia. 2 Committee for Development Policy, Report on the seventeenth session (23-27 March 2015), Economic and Social Council, Official Records, 2015, Supplement No. 13, E/2015/33, para. 59. 3 General Assembly resolution A/RES/59/209, Smooth transition strategy for countries graduating from the list of least developed countries, para. 3(b), 20 December 2004 4 Parameters of the Solomon Islands pre-eligibility for graduation from LDC status in the 2015 review of the list of LDCs PER CAPITA HUMAN ASSETS ECONOMIC INCOME VULNERABILITY To pre-qualify for …to have a gross …to have a score >66 …to have a score <32 under graduation in the 2015 national income per under the Human Assets the Economic Vulnerability review of the list, an capita of at least US Index (HAI), extreme Index (EVI), extreme values LDC had to meet at least $1,242 (2011-2013 three- values of which, among of which, among LDCs, two of the following year average) LDCs, were 7.8 (lowest were 71.5 (highest three graduation human assets) and 87.6 vulnerability) and 24.9 thresholds… (highest human assets) (lowest vulnerability) Solomon Islands' score $1,402 71.7 50.6 under the relevant criterion (3-.year average (Human Assets Index (Economic Vulnerability GNI per capita) score) Index score) Solomon Islands' score at 112.9% of the at 108.6% of the at 63.4% of the in % of the graduation graduation threshold graduation threshold graduation threshold threshold (see footnote 9) Source: UNCTAD, based on CDP data Graphs 1, 2 and 3 illustrate the evolving performance of the Solomon Islands, since 1991, under the graduation thresholds relevant to the per capita income, human assets and economic vulnerability criteria, respectively. The data, under each criterion, indicate the country's distance to or from the graduation threshold, as well as the distance to the admission threshold (the level for admitting new countries into the list). All data through the nine triennial reviews of the list of LDCs since 1991 (1991, 1994, 1997, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015) have been standardized in index form, with the graduation threshold standing out as the 100 basis. For example, a score of 113 observed in 2015 under the first criterion indicates that the Solomon Islands stood at 113% of the relevant graduation threshold. 2. The Solomon Islands and the per capita income criterion The gross national income (GNI) per capita provides information on the average income of a nation. GNI is the sum of the gross domestic product (GDP) and the difference between the factor income brought or sent to the domestic economy by nationals temporarily residing abroad where this income was generated, on the one hand, and the factor accruing to non-residents and leaking out of the domestic economy where this income was generated. 5 The GNI estimates used by the CDP are expressed in current US dollars (Table 2)4. Graph 1 indicates the Solomon Islands’ situation over time under the graduation threshold relevant to the per capital income criterion, at 113% of the threshold in 2015, and a provisionally estimated 143% in 2018. A rise in the performance of the country in Graph 1 will not necessarily be proportionate to the actual evolution of the (3-year average) per capita GNI performance of the Solomon Islands, considering the change in the graduation threshold from the one triennial review to the next. Table 2 Solomon Islands: GNI per capita in US $ Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 WB 1010 930 840 840 860 900 970 960 970 820 910 1,120 1,510 1,820 1,820 1,910 1,880 UNSD 821 795 626 702 802 919 989 1,110 1,069 898 1,011 1,228 1,615 1,785 1,830 Source: World Bank (WB), World Development Indicators database online (GNI, Atlas method); National Accounts Main Aggregates, United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), accessed in July 2016.