Review of Keynesian Studies Vol.2 Rod O’Donnell Maynard Keynes and William Paley: Rarely Explored Connections Rod O’Donnell Abstract Keynes and Paley are two names rarely conjoined in the literature of either figure. Keynes, however, made significant references to Paley in four of his essays. Most commentators treat these as historical ephemera, but closer investigations reveal that they illuminate key aspects of his thought. These include whether Paley or Malthus was the first Cambridge economist, methodological issues concerning the nature of economic theorising and how best to disseminate economic thought, and relationships between scientific and religious explanations. They also serve the useful task of clarifying and correcting certain errors in Keynes’s essays due to exaggeration or inaccuracy. In these contexts, Keynes’s remarks on Paley repay investigation. Keywords: Keynes; Paley; Malthus; Darwin; Mary Marshall JEL Classification Number: B19; B22; B30; B31; E12 46 Review of Keynesian Studies Vol.2 Rod O’Donnell I. Introduction Keynes referred to Paley several times in significant ways, yet Keynes and Paley seldom appear together in the literatures of either figure. In exploring this largely uncharted territory, my aim is to examine Keynes’s references to Paley from 1922 to 1944, and to clarify the nature of the connections, positive and negative, arising therefrom in relation to economic, political and philosophical matters.1 The almost complete absence of analytical commentary in the Keynes literature is illustrated by the substantial intellectual biographies by Harrod, Skidelsky, Moggridge and Dostaler, none of which examine the issue. A similar absence appears characteristic of the Paley literature. That such connections are viewed as details in the intellectual contributions of both men is understandable given the many other important matters to discuss. Closer enquiry reveals that complete neglect is unjustified, however, and that, despite differences in historical eras and intellectual milieux, the connections highlight certain key themes in Keynes’s writings. II. William Paley Paley (1743-1805), Cambridge don, fellow of Christ’s College, clergyman, and moral and political philosopher, articulated a distinctive standpoint in morality, politics and economics. In 1766 he became a fellow of Christ’s and began lecturing on metaphysics, moral philosophy and the New Testament, his reputation being that of an engaging, thought-provoking, non-didactic teacher prepared to put unconventional ideas before his students. 1 One earlier explorer is Waterman (1996, 2017) who discusses one of Keynes’s references to Paley (see below). 47 Review of Keynesian Studies Vol.2 Rod O’Donnell He often challenged the complacent assumptions of his undergraduates, himself advocating a position so extreme that his students were forced to clarify their own opinions in relation to it. ... At Cambridge, Paley associated himself with Latitudinarians ... and endorsed an open and tolerant marketplace of ideas. (Le Mahieu 2002, pp. xii-xiii) 2 This influenced his pupil, William Frend, who was Malthus’s tutor as an undergraduate. Malthus would have found the atmosphere highly congenial, having been previously educated by dissenters (i.e. those not conforming to official Anglican doctrine).3 Two of Paley’s books are relevant. His first, The Principles of Moral and Political Philosophy of 1785 (hereafter Principles), became a set text for Cambridge undergraduates into the Victorian era. His second, Natural Theology, appeared in 1802, subtitled Evidences of the Existences and Attributes of the Deity Collected from the Appearances of Nature. Prompted by a rise of scepticism about Christianity, it sought to demonstrate to a wide audience the existence of God and the credibility of biblical doctrine using appeals to “empirical” considerations rather than authority. His core argument for a designed universe derived from his famous watchmaker analogy. Just as a watch is a clever, complex and intricate object based on natural laws that is designed by humans for human purposes, so the universe is a far cleverer, more complex and more intricate object designed by God for divine purposes. In short, “Design must have a designer. That designer must have been a person. That person is God”.4 Several other aspects of Natural Theology are relevant. First, it revealed the impact of Malthus’s 1798 Population essay, for Paley now accepted Malthus’s arguments and abandoned the ‘greater population/greater happiness’ argument in his Principles. Second, it was read by Charles Darwin, a later member of Christs’s College. And third, his natural 2 Latitudinarianism emphasised the importance of reason and personal judgment, and hence tolerance towards divergent creeds and forms of worship in Christianity. 3 For a resumé of Paley’s life, see Waterman (2017, pp.209-211). 4 Paley (1854, ch.23 conclusion). 48 Review of Keynesian Studies Vol.2 Rod O’Donnell theology arguments met with opposition from theologians as well as scientists. III. Keynes’s Remarks concerning Paley These appear in four essays in two volumes of The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes − Essays in Persuasion, first published in 1931 and then posthumously in 1951, with one relevant essay; and Essays in Biography published from 1933 onwards, with three relevant essays. In order of first composition, the essays are as follows. (1) “Thomas Robert Malthus”, first read in 1922 prior to publication in 1933 (CW X, pp.71-108).5 (2) “The End of Laissez-Faire”, delivered as a 1924 Oxford lecture before being published in 1926 (CW IX, pp.272-294). (3) “My Early Beliefs”, first read in 1938 prior to posthumous publication in 1949 (CW X, pp.433-450), and (4) “Mary Paley Marshall”, Keynes’s obituary of whom appeared in 1944 (CW X, pp.232-250).6 Keynes regarded Paley as having an important place in the intellectual history of Cambridge. He regretted not having written about him, and awarded him two remarkable accolades. I wish I could have included some account of Paley amongst these Essays [on Biography]. For Paley, so little appreciated now, was for a generation or more an 5 In what follows, all references to Keynes’s writings are to Keynes (1971-1989), and take the form of CW, followed by the volume number and page numbers. 6 Indirect references to Paley arise in Keynes’s Treatise on Probability. Arguments by design are found to be logically insufficient unless appreciable prior probabilities of designer existence are available (CW VIII, pp. 329-30, 334). 49 Review of Keynesian Studies Vol.2 Rod O’Donnell intellectual influence on Cambridge only second to Newton. Perhaps, in a sense, he was the first of the Cambridge economists. If anyone will take up again Paley’s Principles he will find, contrary perhaps to his expectations, an immortal book. (CW X, p.79 n2, original emphasis) It is unclear why Keynes chose the adjective immortal, for it would not have been based on the belief that the book’s central arguments were correct or enduring. It appears to have been used because the book was one that would ‘live on’ due to its significance in relation to the development of thought during the (English) Enlightenment, its synthesis of morality, politics, economics and religion, and its thought-provoking nature. That aside, to be placed second only to Newton in his influence on Cambridge, and possibly to have displaced Malthus as the first of the Cambridge economists was high praise indeed. Concerning Newton, Keynes’s essay on the natural philosopher suggests one possible reason. [Newton] looked on the whole universe ... as a secret which could be read by applying pure thought to certain evidence, certain mystic clues which God had laid about the world [that] were to be found partly in the evidence of the heavens [and] partly in certain papers ... handed down ... in an unbroken chain back to the original...revelation... He regarded the universe as a cryptogram set by the Almighty (CW X, p.366; also p.377). In their different ways, both Newton and Paley sought decipherment. Concerning the possible displacement of Malthus as the title-holder, Paley’s Principles is the key work. Although focused on moral and political philosophy, it contained significant economic content. Moral philosophy might set ends, but political philosophy is related to means and so involves economics. In addition, Paley’s work is related to other issues in Keynes’s writings (see below). While not highly significant, Keynes’s remarks on Paley are still far from insignificant and repay exploration. The key analytical themes in the Keynes-Paley links are as follows. 50 Review of Keynesian Studies Vol.2 Rod O’Donnell (i) The degrees of consilience between private and public interests. (ii) The respective roles of markets and the state. (iii) Whether current economic systems require significant change. (iv) The reasons for such changes. (v) The connections, if any, between economic and religious explanations. IV. Paley on Happiness, Population and Economic Policy The scope of Paley’s thought ranged from God’s design of the universe and its inhabitants; how individuals do, and should, use their faculties to make rational choices; how society should be constituted to better serve God’s purpose; and reflections on current issues. However, in discussing these, he used ideas that were not always internally compatible. The views in his Principles may be summarised as follows. First, the argument is teleological. It bases itself on God’s purposeful design of the universe, this purposiveness being revealed by natural religion (the evidence provided by nature) and revealed religion (the evidence provided by the bible). Concerning humans, Paley saw God’s purpose as having two primary elements: the happiness of humans, the beings placed at the pinnacle of living creatures; and the endowment of humans with intelligence and free will, such faculties ensuring that choice becomes a necessity. Second, in explaining how humans go about making choices, he was influenced by Bentham’s utilitarianism.