Continuous Modular Strategic Planning Photo courtesy of P. Blowfeld, SERUG West of England Line Study 2020 1 Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5 1.1 West of England Line: The problem.................................................................................. 5 1.2 The West of England Line: The solution ......................................................................... 7 1.3 Emerging Strategic Advice ................................................................................................ 10 2.0 Continuous Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) .................................................................... 12 2.1 CMSP Governance ................................................................................................................. 13 3.0 The West of England Line ................................................................................................................. 14 3.1 Geographic scope .................................................................................................................. 14 3.2 Historic context ....................................................................................................................... 16 3.3 Passenger service levels and journey times ................................................................ 17 3.3.1 West of England Line patronage trends ....................................................... 20 3.4 Freight services ....................................................................................................................... 22 3.5 Operational Resilience and Performance .................................................................... 23 3.5.1 Infrastructure and operations ........................................................................... 23 3.5.2 Rolling Stock and depot capability .................................................................. 24 3.5.3 Performance and resilience ................................................................................ 25 4.0 Strategic Context .................................................................................................................................. 28 4.1 Why this study? ...................................................................................................................... 28 4.2 Rail Strategy ............................................................................................................................. 29 4.2.1 Wessex Main Line Strategy ................................................................................ 29 4.3 Wider Context ......................................................................................................................... 30 4.3.1 Train and infrastructure reliability (service resilience) ........................... 30 4.3.2 Overcrowding and capacity ................................................................................ 31 4.3.3 Journey times............................................................................................................ 31 4.3.4 Diversionary capability ......................................................................................... 31 4.3.5 Other strategies and policies ............................................................................. 32 4.3.6 Summary..................................................................................................................... 36 5.0 Strategic Questions .............................................................................................................................. 37 6.0 Markets and Demand ......................................................................................................................... 38 6.1 Market analysis ....................................................................................................................... 38 6.2 Journey time analysis........................................................................................................... 40 6.3 Future passenger demand ................................................................................................. 41 6.3.1 The current picture ................................................................................................. 42 6.3.2 The future picture ................................................................................................... 43 6.4 Freight markets ....................................................................................................................... 48 2 6.4.1 Freight growth areas ............................................................................................. 48 6.4.2 Constraints to freight growth ............................................................................ 48 6.4.3 Freight impact on this CMSP module ............................................................ 49 7.0 Timetable Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 50 7.1 Train Service Specification Remit ................................................................................... 50 7.1.1 Basingstoke to Yeovil Junction ......................................................................... 50 7.1.2 Axminster to Exeter St David’s .......................................................................... 51 7.1.3 Castle Cary to Exeter Diversionary .................................................................. 51 7.1.4 New Stations ............................................................................................................. 52 7.1.5 Train Service Specification Summary ............................................................. 52 7.2 Timetable Outputs ................................................................................................................ 53 7.2.1 Assumptions .............................................................................................................. 54 7.2.2 Timetable Study Findings ................................................................................... 54 7.3 Timetable Analysis Conclusions ...................................................................................... 62 8.0 Proposed interventions and solutions .......................................................................................... 64 8.1 Tisbury Loop ............................................................................................................................. 64 8.1.1 Description ................................................................................................................. 64 8.1.2 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 64 8.1.3 Tisbury – Alternatives ............................................................................................ 65 8.2 Gillingham Loop ..................................................................................................................... 66 8.2.1 Description ................................................................................................................. 66 8.2.2 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 66 8.3 Yeovil Junction ........................................................................................................................ 67 8.3.1 Description ................................................................................................................. 67 8.3.2 Track ............................................................................................................................. 67 8.4 Axminster Loop ....................................................................................................................... 68 8.4.1 Description ................................................................................................................. 68 8.4.2 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 68 8.5 Honiton Loop ........................................................................................................................... 69 8.5.1 Description ................................................................................................................. 69 8.5.2 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 69 8.6 Whimple to Cranbrook ........................................................................................................ 70 8.6.1 Description ................................................................................................................. 70 8.6.2 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 70 8.6.3 Whimple – Cranbrook Alternatives ................................................................. 71 9.0 Emerging Strategic Advice ............................................................................................................... 72 3 9.1 Passenger services ................................................................................................................. 72 9.2 Freight services ......................................................................................................................