PONARS Eurasia POLICY PERSPECTIVES Policy Conference September 2012 IERES • THE INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN, RUSSIAN AND EURASIAN STUDIES PONARS Eurasia POLICY PERSPECTIVES Policy Conference September 2012 PONARS Eurasia is an international network of academics that advances new policy approaches to research and security in Russia and Eurasia. PONARS Eurasia is based at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. The program is generously supported by the International Program of Carnegie Corporation of New York and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors. Co-directed by Henry E. Hale and Cory Welt Managing Editor: Alexander Schmemann Program Coordinator: Olga Novikova Research Assistant: Jeanmarie O’Leary PONARS Eurasia Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) Elliott School of International Affairs George Washington University 1957 E Street, NW, Suite 412 Washington, DC 20052 Tel: (202) 994-6340 www.ponarseurasia.org © PONARS Eurasia 2012. All rights reserved Cover images: A supporter of the punk band Pussy Riot holds a hand-crafted design symbolizing the three members of the Russian punk group Pussy Riot, with a sign on her wrist reading "They are your children, Russia," outside a court in Moscow, Russia, Friday, August 17, 2012. A Moscow judge has sentenced each of three members of the provocative punk band Pussy Riot to two years in prison on hooliganism charges following a trial that has drawn international outrage as an emblem of Russia's intolerance to dissent. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko) Officials take part in a ceremony after the train carrying 45 tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imported from Kazakhstan arrived at the Alashankou (Alataw Pass) Port in Bozhou in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region on Monday, June 14, 2010. Railway is a one way of energy transportation between China and Central Asia, while the Sino-Kazak Pipeline carries almost 8 million tons of crude oil from Kazakhstan to China.(Photo By Zhi Jun/Color China Photo/AP Images) Contents About the Authors v Foreword xiii Cory Welt, George Washington University A RUSSIAN SPRING? PROTESTS AND PUBLIC OPINION IN RUSSIA Bolstering Exchange Programs to Link University Education with Liberal Views in Russia: A Different Perspective on “Democracy Assistance” 1 Theodore P. Gerber, University of Wisconsin-Madison The Passive Majority in Russian Politics: Can Quality Beat Quantity? 6 Viatcheslav Morozov, University of Tartu Is Russian Society Waking Up? 11 Nikolay Petrov, Carnegie Moscow Center Election Observers and Key Constituencies in Russia’s 2011-2012 Election Cycle 18 Graeme Robertson, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Thief or Savior? Contesting Personalism in Russia’s Rallies and Protests 23 Regina Smyth, Indiana University CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN CENTRAL ASIA Passive Eagle, Rising Dragon: U.S. Policy toward China’s Rise in Central Asia 28 Alexander Cooley, Barnard College, Columbia University Central Asia’s Cold War? Water and Politics in Uzbek-Tajik Relations 33 Shairbek Juraev, American University of Central Asia Drug Trafficking in Central Asia: A Poorly Considered Fight? 38 Sébastien Peyrouse, George Washington University The Constraints of Partnership: China’s Approach to Afghanistan 43 Elizabeth Wishnick, Montclair State University/Columbia University i THE FUTURE OF LEADERSHIP: RUSSIA Protests Without Leaders: Making Multiple Choices into a Source of Strength 48 Pavel K. Baev, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Why “Reputation” Is Irrelevant in Russian Public Politics 53 Serghei Golunov, University of Tartu The Twilight of the Vertical: Can a Governor in Volgograd Play a New Game? 58 Ivan Kurilla, Volgograd State University/ George Washington University “Natsdem”: The New Wave of Anti-Putin Nationalists 62 Marlène Laruelle, George Washington University Escalating Uncertainty: The Next Round of Gubernatorial Elections in Russia 67 Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, Miami University Faking It in Russian Politics 72 Mikhail Troitskiy, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)/ MacArthur Foundation RUSSIA’S PERIMETER: SYRIA, IRAN, AND JAPAN The Southern Kuril Islands Dispute 77 Dmitry Gorenburg, CNA Strategic Studies/Harvard University Can There Be Common Ground? The Iranian Nuclear Program in the U.S.-Russia Dialogue 84 Polina Sinovets, Odessa National University The Syrian Civil War: Transition without Intervention? 88 Ekaterina Stepanova, Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) ii THE FUTURE OF LEADERSHIP: UKRAINE, KAZAKAHSTAN, AND THE CAUCASUS Electoral Laws and Patronage Politics in Ukraine 94 Oleksandr Fisun, Kharkiv National University Georgia’s Parliamentary Elections: The Start of a Peaceful Transfer of Power? 99 Kornely Kakachia, Tbilisi State University Resolving Kazakhstan’s Unlikely Succession Crisis 105 Sean R. Roberts, George Washington University Police Reform and Corruption in Georgia, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh 110 Nona Shahnazarian, Center for Pontic and Caucasian Studies/Kuban Social and Economic Institute DESIGNING POLICY TOWARD UKRAINE AND THE EU-RUSSIA NEIGHBORHOOD Ukraine and the United States: Assessing their Relationship on the Eve of Elections 115 Volodymyr Dubovyk, Odessa National University Russkii Mir and the Future of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church 119 Olexiy Haran, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy; Serhiy Zdioruk, National Institute for Strategic Studies The EU Transformed: Why Should Russia Care? 125 Andrey Makarychev, Free University of Berlin Will Europe Walk Away from Ukraine? 130 Arkady Moshes, Finnish Institute of International Affairs iii RESOLVING ENERGY TRADE DISPUTES IN EURASIA No Correct Price: Recent Energy Negotiations between Russia and China 135 Andrew Barnes, Kent State University The Domestic Limits of International Expansion: Russian National Oil Companies & Global Markets 140 Pauline Jones Luong, University of Michigan Energy Deposits and Contested Maritime Boundaries in Eurasia 145 Robert Orttung, George Washington University; Sascha Langenbach and Andreas Wenger, Center for Security Studies, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich Restoring Brotherly Bonds: Turkey-Azerbaijani Energy Relations 150 Şuhnaz Yılmaz and M. Tahir Kılavuz, Koç University THE CAUCASUS: A CHANGING SECURITY LANDSCAPE Crossing Borders, Validating Sovereignty: Russia, Georgia, and the WTO 154 Mikhail A. Alexseev, San Diego State University Coercion in Action: Deterrence and Compellence in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict 160 Sergey Minasyan, Caucasus Institute The Politics of Foreign Intrigue in the Caucasus 165 Scott Radnitz, University of Washington Azerbaijan-Iran Relations: Quo Vadis, Baku? 170 Anar M. Valiyev, Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy Recognition Without Independence: Abkhazia’s International Context 175 Sufian Zhemukhov, Institute for International Education/Center for Advanced Holocaust Studies iv About the Authors Mikhail A. Alexseev is Professor of Political Science at San Diego State University. He specializes in comparative analysis of migration and ethnic conflict. His latest book is Immigration Phobia and the Security Dilemma: Russia, Europe, and the United States (Cambridge, 2006), and his current research focuses on the social and political implications of the Hajj pilgrimage and violent anti-government insurgency in the North Caucasus. Pavel K. Baev is Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). He is also a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Institution. His current research projects focus on Russian military reform, Russia’s conflict management in the Caucasus and Central Asia, energy interests in Russia’s foreign and security policy, and Russia’s relations with Europe and NATO. He is the author of Russian Energy Policy and Military Power: Putin's Quest for Greatness (Routledge, 2008). His weekly column appears in the Eurasia Daily Monitor. Andrew Barnes is Associate Professor of Political Science at Kent State University. His research interests include the international political economy of oil, Russian property reform, and the links between markets and democracy. His first book was called Owning Russia: The Struggle over Factories, Farms, and Power (Cornell, 2006). Alexander Cooley is the Tow Professor and Chair of the Political Science Department at Barnard College, Columbia University and a faculty member of Columbia’s Harriman Institute and Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies. Cooley has just completed a new book on the politics of US-Russia-China competition for influence in Central Asia, titled Great Games, Local Rules: The New Great Power Contest for Central Asia (Oxford, 2012). He has also written Logics of Hierarchy: The Organization of Empires, States and Military Occupations; Base Politics: Democratic Change and the US Military Abroad; and, with Hendrik Spruyt, Contracting States: Sovereign Transfers in International Relations. Volodymyr Dubovyk is Associate Professor of International Relations and Director of the Center for International Studies at Odessa National University. He has conducted research at the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (1997, 2006-2007) and at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland (2002). He is the co-author of Ukraine and European Security (Macmillan,