Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41 Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41 Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper This publication presents examples of applying sea level change scenarios in spatial planning. The project “Sea Level Change Affecting Spatial devel- opment in the Baltic Sea Region” developed a “Decision Support Frame” (DSF) to facilitate this process. The DSF structures research efforts and provides an interface between for practical applications. It demonstrates the Sea Level Change Affecting the Spatial connections between climate change induced sea level rise in the Baltic Sea region and planning concerns on local and regional levels. The DSF also Development in the Baltic Sea Region builds on facilitating a communication process. It includes guidelines for communication between different stakeholders and provides information and case study examples to demonstrate the interactions between the changing global climate and local planning drawing conclusions on eventual necessi- ties for mitigation strategies. Edited by Philipp Schmidt-Thomé Tätä julkaisua myy Denna publikation säljes av This publication can be obtained from GEOLOGIAN GEOLOGISKA GEOLOGICAL SURVEY TUTKIMUSKESKUS (GTK) FORSKNINGSCENTRALEN (GTK) OF FINLAND (GTK) Julkaisumyynti Publikationsförsäljning Publication sales PL 96 PB 96 P.O. Box 96 02151 Espoo 02151 Esbo FI-02151 Espoo, Finland ( 020 550 11 ( 020 550 11 ( +358 20 550 11 Telekopio: 020 550 12 Telefax: 020 550 12 Telefax: +358 20 550 12 Philipp Schmidt-Thomé (ed.) GTK, Itä-Suomen yksikkö GTK, Östra Finlands enhet GTK, Eastern Finland Office Kirjasto Biblioteket Library PL 1237 PB 1237 P.O. Box 1237 70211 Kuopio 70211 Kuopio FI-70211 Kuopio, Finland ( 020 550 11 ( 020 550 11 ( +358 20 550 11 Telekopio: 020 550 13 Telefax: 020 550 13 Telefax: +358 20 550 13 GTK, Pohjois-Suomen yksikkö GTK, Norra Finlands enhet GTK, Northern Finland Office Kirjasto Biblioteket Library PL 77 PB 77 P.O. Box 77 96101 Rovaniemi 96101 Rovaniemi FI-96101 Rovaniemi, Finland ( 020 550 11 ( 020 550 11 ( +358 20 550 11 Telekopio: 020 550 14 Telefax: 020 550 14 Telefax: +358 20 550 14 E-mail: [email protected] ISBN 951-690-935-3 WWW-address: www.gtk.fi ISSN 0782-8535 Geological Survey of Finland Espoo 2006 Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41 Sea Level Change Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region edited by Philipp Schmidt-Thom A collection of peer reviewed articles on the results of the INTERREG IIIB Baltic Sea Region (BSR) project “Sea level Change Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region – SEAREG”. The project was co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) between 2002 and 2005. Geological Survey of Finland Espoo 2006 Schmidt-Thom, P. (ed.) 2006. Sea Level Change Affecting the Spatial De- velopment of the Baltic Sea Region. Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41, 154 pages, 53 figures and 29 tables. The BSR Interreg IIIB project “Sea Level Change Affecting the Spatial De- velopment of the Baltic Sea Region” (SEAREG) aimed at strengthening the linkages from climate change to planning and decision-making and at enhanc- ing adaptation to climate change. In the scope of the project, existing global climate models from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were first downscaled to the Baltic Sea Region and selected case study areas, and then combined with topographical data. The resulting scenario maps of potential coastlines changes and flood prone areas were then analysed together with various relevant actors to discuss po- tential impacts on the territory, referring also to the socio economic system and development. The results of this process were structured in a set of tools, the Decision Support Frame, to better bridge the gap between climate change models and spatial planning by integrated scenario interpretation. The intensity and the sort of impacts that might affect the Baltic Sea coastal area will largely differ depending on the location of the assessed area. Gener- ally, the northern part of the Baltic Sea Region faces a smaller problem of sea level rise as the postglacial rebound lessens its impact. Whereas northern Scandinavia still rebounds up to 9 mm/year, there is a subsidence of about 1 mm/year in some parts of the southern Baltic Sea coast. Land loss caused by inundation can be negligible in sparsely populated areas; however, for areas with a high population density and development areas for housing close to the shore, a similar land loss will be much more serious. The Decision Support Frame aims at guiding and supporting the discussion between the relevant planner and other stakeholders in defining necessities and possibilities of mitigation strategies. The Decision Support Frame found strong support from local and regional spatial planning authorities that can thus lead to timely decisions on integrated mitigation strategies. Key words (GeoRef Thesaurus, AGI): climate change, sea-level changes, transgression, floods, coastal environment, risk assessment, regional planning, Baltic Sea. Philipp Schmidt-Thom, Geological Survey of Finland, Betonimiehenkuja 4, 02150 Espoo, Finland; E-mail: [email protected] ISBN 951-690-935-3 ISSN 0782-8535 Vammalan Kirjapaino Oy 2006 2 FOREWORD This publication presents the final results of the INTERREG IIIB Baltic Sea Region project “Sea Level Change Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region – SEAREG”. The Project was part financed by the European Union (Regional Development Fund - ERDF), and developed the steps from downscaling of climate models, regional and local scenario ap- plications towards subsequent discussions with regional stakeholders, and finally assessing the potential impacts of sea level rise in case study areas. The project developed around the idea to involve spatial planners and other stakeholders into the discussion and the assessment of climate change impacts. Since planners are not usually confronted with the topic of climate change, the project developed methods and materials to illustrate and communicate both the potential impacts as well as the uncertainties of climate change impact research and assessment. The project was very successful, as it was able to start a communication process on climate change impact in the case study areas presented here. Nevertheless, this project was only a first start on an integrated climate change impact assessment on spatial development, much more activities in this sector are needed in the future. The project group hopes to have constructively contributed to the discussion and to the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Philipp Schmidt-Thom Acknowledgements The project group wants to thank all institutes and persons that have contributed to the work without financial reimbursement, i.e. in Estonia the Geological Survey of Estonia and the City Government of Prnu; in Finland the Regional Council of Uusimaa and the City Planning Departments of Helsinki, Loviisa and Porvoo; in Germany the Regional Planning Office of Vorpommern; in Poland the Polish Geological Institute and the City Planning Departments of Gdansk and Sopot; in Sweden the Office of Regional Planning and Urban Transportation Stockholm County and the Stockholm City Planning Administration. 3 CONTENTS Sea level change assessment in the Baltic Sea Region and spatial planning responses By: Philipp Schmidt-Thom and Lasse Peltonen ......................................................... 7 The evolution of the Baltic Sea – changing shorelines and unique coasts By: Hilkka Kallio ......................................................................................................... 17 Projections of future surface winds, sea levels, and wind waves in the late 21st century and their application for impact studies of flood prone areas in the Baltic Sea region By: H.E. Markus Meier, Barry Broman, Hilkka Kallio and Erik Kjellström ................ 23 Impacts and Coping Capacity as key elements in a Vulnerability Assessment on Sea Level Change Scenarios By: Johannes Klein and Philipp Schmidt-Thom ......................................................... 45 Actors, networks and actor-networks in coping with sea-level rise By: Kaisa Schmidt-Thom and Lasse Peltonen ............................................................ 51 Risk communication and sea-level rise: bridging the gap between climate science and planning practice By: Samuli Lehtonen and Lasse Peltonen .................................................................... 61 Evaluation of future sea level rise impacts in Prnu / Estonia By: Johannes Klein and Michael Staudt ...................................................................... 71 Incorporating sea level rise scenarios in Helsinki City planning By: Samuli Lehtonen and Samrit Luoma ...................................................................... 83 Sea Level Rise and Flood Risk Assessment in It-Uusimaa By: Heidi Virkki, Hilkka Kallio and Oskari Orenius .................................................... 95 Usedom – Coastal Development and Implementation of Geo Information in a Decision Support Frame By: �����Bernd �ö������������er, Hartmut ���������udolphi, �einhard����������������� Lampe and ��������einhard �����ölit�-Möller������� .... 107 Assessment of modelled sea level rise impacts in the Gdańsk region, Poland By: Michael Staudt, Zbigniew Kordalski and Jaku� �muda ........................................ 121 Impacts of future climate change and sea level rise in the