I I I I I I I I RETAIL I AND I I COMMERCIAL I CENTRES I STUDY I I upper yarra valley and dandenong ranges region I I september 1979 george j. con nor & associates pty ltd 711. 3 I 099452 UPP:R I 1979 I I I I I I I I ,I I I I I I 1 11 1111a> I 11 11 11 l 1 TOWN AND COUNTRY 4386 PLANN'NG BOARD I LIBRARY I I. RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL (. CENTRES STUDY ..( '[ A study of future retail and commercial requirements :!( in the Upper Yarra Valley and Dandenong Ranges Region. ·,1·. ,' - - c- 11 ·Se pteJn.b~r, 1979 '.,(,, A report prepared for the Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Authority :1 PY I George J. Connor & Associates Pty. Ltd. ,( l:IJ:: ·----------·-,I 711.3 George J. Connor & i 099452 Associates I ,·l UPP:R $a Retail and · 1979 commercial centres i study $b a study of 1 :I. I I I • I LIST OF CONTENTS PAGE I INTRODUCTION (i) SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS (iii) I SECTION: 1 EXISTING PATTERNS OF RETAIL AND 1 COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY I 1. 1 SIZE AND. COMPOSITION OF EXISTING 1 CENTRES I Retail Floorspace by Store Type Provision of Retail Floorspace in Relation I to Population Retail Trading Levels 10 I Commercial Service Patterns in the Region 12 Descriptio·n of Existing Centres 14 ·1 Chirnside ·Fair 14 Lilydale Centre 16 I Mooroolbark 18 Kilsyth Shopping Centre 19 I Belgrave Centre 20 Healesville Centre 22 I Monbulk Centre 23 Warburton 24 I · Mount Evelyn 24 Wandin North 25 I Yarra Glen 26 Montrose 26 !I Seville 27 Collins Place 27 ·1 I I 11 List of Contents • I 1. 1 Upper Ferntree Gully 28 Emerald 29 I Upwey 30 Yarra Junction 31 I Other Centres 32 I 1. 2 EXISTING RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL 33 PATTERNS Mode of Travel 36 I Main Trip Purpose 36 Centre Usage 37 I Frequency of Centre Usage 37 Trade Area 37 I Goods Purchased by Shop.pers 40 Centre Improvements 40 I Other Centres Used 40 1. 3 CLASSIFICATION OF CENTRES 41 I Centre Hierarchy 42 L Small Neighbourhood Centre 43 I Large Neighbourhood Centre 43 Small Community Centre 43 I Large Community Centre 44 Small District Centre 45 I Large District Centre 45 Regional Centre 45 I Central Business District 46 I SECTION: 2 RETAIL SALES AND EXPENDITURE PATTERNS 51 2. 1 RETAIL SALES 51 I I I I I I List of Contents 2.2 ESCAPE SPENDING I Retail Spending Capability of Residents 55 Captured Spending and Resident Escape 58 I Spending Retail Sales and Expenditure Patterns 60 I in 1978- 79 SECTION: 3 POPULATION 66 I 3. 1 EXISTING POPULATION 67 I Distribution of Population by Sector 71 3. 2 FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH IN THE 72 REGION I Mooroolbark-Kilsyth 75 Population Projections 77 I Population Projections by Sector 79 SECTION: 4 FUTURE RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL 82 I . REQUIREMENTS 4. 1 FUTURE RETAIL REQUIREMENTS IN THE 83 I REGION Spending per Capita 84 I Retail Self-Sufficiency 85 Captured Spending 86 I Sales per Square Metre 87 4.2 RETAIL FLOORSPACE PROJECTIONS 88 4.3 DISTRIBUTION OF FUTURE RETAIL 90 FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS 4.4 OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING PLANNING FOR 93 I FUTURE RETAIL REQUIREMENTS Capacity of Existing Centres 93 I I I List of Contents. I Changes in Shopping Patterns 95 Changing Retail Marketing Techniques 96 11 4.5 GOALS, OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES 97 The Strategy Planning Process 98 Recommended Goals and Objectives for 99 Retail and Commercial Development in the I Region Goals 100 I Objectives 100 Policies 101 I 4.6 RECOMMENDED STRATEGY 102 Region 102 Lillydale 102 Upper Yarra 105 He ale sville 106 Commercial Floorspace Provision 106 I' Development Control Aspects 112 Recommendations For Development Control 116 APPENDIX: 1 CENTRE USER SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE 118 2 SHOPPER SUR VEY PLACE OF RESIDENCE 120 SECTOR CODE & RECONCILIATION SCHEDULE I I I I I LIST OF TABLES I Page I TABLE: 1 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 3 Size and Composition of Shopping Centres, 1979 4 I 2 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 6 Comparison of Retail Floorspace by Store Type I by LGA, 1979 3 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 7 Per Capita Provision of Operational Retail -1 Floorspace by LGA, 1978-79 4 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 9 I Per Capita Provi.sion of Retail and Commercial Floorspace by LGA, 1979 I 5 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 10 Estimated Retail Trading Levels by LGA, 1978-79 I 6 Average Retail Trading Levels of Selected 11 Melbourne LGA's, 1973-74 I 7 Chirnside Fair Shoppi:r:ig Centre 15 8 Centre User Patterns in Belgrave, HeaLesville, 35 Lilydale, Monbulk, Mooroolbark and Warburton I Centres ,-I 9 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 38 Trade Area Sector of Residence of Centre Users :I 10 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 48 Existing Hierarchy of Shopping Centres 11 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 52 I Retail Sales & Turnover by Store Type and Local 'I Government Area, 1973-4 11 List of Tables Page TABLE: 12 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 54 I Average Per Capita Retail Sales in Relation to Melbourne Statistical Division Average, 1973-74 I 13 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 56 Selected Socio-Economic Indicators, 1976 I 14 Upper Yarra Valley and Dandenong Ranges Region 59 Retail Expenditure of Residents and Apparent Escape Spending by LGA and Store Type, 1973-74 I 15 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 61 Captured & Escape Spending by Store Type I and LGA, 1973-74 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 63 Estimated Retail Expenditure of Residents and Apparent Es cape Spending by LGA and Store Type, 1978-79 1 7 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 64 Estimated Captured & Escape Spending by Store Type and LGA, 1978-79 1·· 18 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 68 Population by Local Government Area, 1971- 78 19 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ra-nges Region 69 I Population Growth by Local Government Area. 1971-78 I 20 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region Population Projections - Land Management and Stream Environment Study, 1976. I 21 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 78 Revised Population Projections, 1978-1990 I 22 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 81 Population Growth Projections by Sector, 1976-1990 I 23 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 87 Summary of Existing Retail Situation, 1978- 79 I I I I L List of Tables TABLE: 24 Upper Yarra Valley &·Dandenong Ranges Region 88 Summary of Existing Retail Situation, 1978-79 25 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 89 Projection of Future Retail Floorspace Requirements 1978-79 to 1990 26 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 91 Specific Trade Area Analysis, Lilydale - -I Chirnside Park - North Mooroolbark Sectors : 1990 27 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 92 SpecifiC Trade Area Analysis, South Mooroolbark "' & Kilsyth Sectors : 1990 ..I 28 Upper Yarra -Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 107 Additional Retail Floorspace Required by Location 1990 29 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong Ranges Region 109 Additional Retail and Commercial Floorspace Required by Location - 1990 ·1 .I I I I -I I ·1 I LIST OF ILL US TRA T IONS I After Page FIGURE: 1 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong 2· I Ranges Region : Local Government Area Components I 2 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong 4 Ranges Region : Pattern of I Shopping Centres 3 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong 38 Ranges Region : Place of I Residence Sectors 4 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong 62 I Ranges Region : Retail Sales and Expenditure Flows, 1973-74 I 5 Upper Yarra Vall.ey & Dandenong 64 Ranges Region : Retail Sales and I Expenditure Flows, 1978-79 6 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong 65 Ranges Region : Retail Sales and '1 Expenditure Flows by L. G. A,, 1978-79 I 7 Upper Yarra Valley & Dandenong 71 Ranges Region : Population Sectors I I I I I I I I ( i) I I INTRODUCTION In accordance with the requirements of its Act, the Upper Yarra Valley and Dandenong Ranges Authority is currently preparing I ·a regional strategy plan. As part of its overall strategy plan study programme, the Authority has commissioned this study of existing retail and commercial patterns in the Region and I future retail and commercial requirements. Section l of this report contains a comprehensive inventory I and assessment of the existing provision of retail and commercial facilities in the Region, including those under construction, based on the results of a comprehensive land use I and floorspace survey. The form, composition and main characteristics of the Region's larger centres are described.· Also, the existing patterns of centre usage and function in I the Region are analysed, using the results of the in-centre surveys of centre users which were specially conducted as part of this study. The Region's existing centres are I classified into a hierarchical framework according to the size, composition and performance characteristics of each. I In Section 2, the patterns of retail sales and expenditure in the Region as a whole are examined, including the inflow of non-resident captured spending and the outflow of resident I escape spending. Similarly, the flows of retail spending between each of the four Local Government Areas compr:ising I the Region are also examined. Section 3 analyses the patterns of resident population distribu­ tion and growth in the Region, each of the Region's constituent I Local Government Areas, and the various sectors within each of these Local Government Areas, over the period since l 971.. Previous projections of future population growth in I the Region are reviewed and new, up to date projections prepared.