LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF THE ROAD NETWORK DEVELOPMENT AND LAND- COVER DYNAMICS IN LOP BURI PROVINCE, THAILAND, 1989-2006 By RISA PATARASUK A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2011 1 © 2011 Risa Patarasuk 2 To my family, and friends In memory of Dr. Kwadwo Konadu-Agyemung 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to start by thanking the Department of Geography at the University of Florida for its financial support during the past several years. I am especially grateful to Dr. Peter Waylen and Dr. Jane Southworth for their help in securing funding, and for their moral support. I don’t know how I would have made it without them. Next, I would like to thank my dissertation chair, Dr. Michael Binford, and other committee members Dr. Timothy Fik, Dr. Jane Southworth, and Dr. Bon Dewitt for their academic support. I also thank professors, Dr. Stephen Golant, Dr. Cesar Caviedes, and Dr. Peter Waylen, for their guidance and support in proposal and dissertation writing. My field work in Thailand was made possible through the support of the faculty and staff at the University of Chicago (Dr. Robert Townsend and John Felkner) as well as the University of Chicago Research Center at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC). Special thanks to Dr. Vimut Vanicharearnth, Khun Wichian Kaeosombat for providing me the data that I needed. I would like to extend my gratitude to the ‘nong nong’ at UTCC Research Center, namely, Teerachat Techapaisarnsaroenkit, Surayose Sricharoen, Pinyo Supakatisun, Kitti Chiewchan for assisting me with the data collection as well as being my lunch buddies. Also, thank you to the Thai Family Research Centre, especially, Khun Sombat Sakuntasathien , Nong Eu, Khun Bu, and other staff members in Lop Buri Province Office. Special thanks to Khun Bu who provided me accommodation as well as other ‘pe pe’ staff members who helped me in the field. I would like to extend a very heartfelt thank you to my now sister- in-law, Attitan Pongisal, who assisted me in the field, kept me company on many long 4 data collecting drives through the countryside, made sure I didn’t get trampled by livestock, and got me hooked on Thai soap operas. This dissertation was made possible through financial support and data provision from the National Science Foundation “Economic Growth, Social Inequality, and Environmental Change in Thailand and Cambodia” project (BCS-0433787), Altrusa International and UF Map and Imagery Library. I am very grateful to Carol McAuliffe and Hesham Monsef, staff members at UF Libraries, for helping me to obtain and process satellite images from USGS. Also, I would like to thank the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA), especially, Khun Kanokwan Ganhakiti, who has helped me obtain satellite images. Other agencies that I would like to extend my gratitude to for providing data include: the Office of Agricultural Economics (Khun Yupa Limsawad), the Department of Highways offices in both Bangkok and Lop Buri (Khun Apisith Wiyanrat, Khun Sithichai Wananuvetchapong, and Khun Kornwipat Kittiboonyathiwakorn), the Department of Rural Roads (Khun Chatchawal Lerkaram and Khun Suchart Inphao), and the Department of Environmental Quality Promotion (Khun Peamsook Predee). To my friends within and outside Geography Department, I would like to say a special thanks to Sanchayeeta Adhikari and Ryan Kremser who have helped me with thinking, writing and editing processes. I would like to thank all of my friends namely Lin Cassidy, Andrea Gaughan, Anna Szyniszewska, Stefan Szyniszewski, Betty Lininger, Erin Bunting, Andrea Wolf, Cerian Gibbs, Zhuojie Huang (Seen), Carlos Canas, Keith Yearwood, Ursula Garfield, Kofi Adu-Brempong, Pinki Mondal, Forrest Stevens, Kittipat Kampa, and Siripon Kamontum for their academic and personal advice. Thank you to 5 Department of Geography staff members (Rhonda Black, Desiree Price, and Julia Williams) for their advice and help with logistics. Finally, I thank you my parents and family for your input, ideas, advice, financial assistance, and moral support. 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 9 LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ 10 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 14 The Role of Roads and Road Network Development ............................................. 14 Land-Cover Change and Road Network Development ........................................... 16 Road Network Development in Lop Buri Province .................................................. 18 Study Area .............................................................................................................. 19 Dissertation Research............................................................................................. 21 Dissertation Outline ................................................................................................ 22 2 LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF THE ROAD NETWORK DEVELOPMENT AND LAND-COVER CHANGE IN LOP BURI PROVINCE, THAILAND, 1989-2006 ....... 24 Data and Methods .................................................................................................. 28 The Study Area ................................................................................................ 28 Data Sources .................................................................................................... 30 Land-Cover Classification ................................................................................. 31 Change Trajectory Analysis .............................................................................. 32 Road Network Analysis .................................................................................... 32 Results .................................................................................................................... 33 Land-Cover Distribution .................................................................................... 33 Land-Cover Trajectories ................................................................................... 34 Road Network Distribution ................................................................................ 35 Spatial Relationship between the Road Network and Land-Cover Distribution .................................................................................................... 35 Spatial Relationship between the Road Network and Land-Cover Change ..... 36 Discussion .............................................................................................................. 38 3 SPATIAL MODELING OF ROAD NETWORK DEVELOPMENT, POPULATION PRESSURE, AND BIOPHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF UPLAND CROP AND FOREST CONVERSIONS IN LOP BURI PROVINCE, THAILAND, 1989-2006 ..... 58 Study Area .............................................................................................................. 61 Methods .................................................................................................................. 62 Land-Cover Data .............................................................................................. 62 7 Logistic Regression Models .............................................................................. 63 Dependent Variables ........................................................................................ 64 Independent Variables ..................................................................................... 64 Sample Selection ............................................................................................. 67 Results and Discussion........................................................................................... 67 Logistic Regression Analysis ............................................................................ 68 Change to Upland Crops Models (Models 1 And 2) ......................................... 68 Forest Loss Models (Models 3 and 4) .............................................................. 73 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 78 4 ROAD NETWORK CONNECTIVITY AND LAND-COVER DYNAMICS IN LOP BURI PROVINCE ................................................................................................... 90 Study Area .............................................................................................................. 94 Methods .................................................................................................................. 96 Road Network Data .......................................................................................... 96 Land Cover Data .............................................................................................. 96 Intensive Study Areas Selections ..................................................................... 96 Graph Theory-Based Measures and Indices .................................................... 97 Statistical Analysis .........................................................................................