front cover_light box_volume black Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD With Addendums 30 September 2004 volume II of III Final Cut 8.5 X 11 with Full Bleed For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800: DC area (202)512-1800 Fax: (202) 512-2250 Mail: Stop SSOP. Washington, DC 20402-00001 ISBN-13: 978-0-16-072488-6 / ISBN-10: 0-16-072488-0 (Vol. 1) ISBN-13: 978-0-16-072489-3 / ISBN-10: 0-16-072489-9 (Vol. 2) ISBN-13: 978-0-16-072490-9 / ISBN-10: 0-16-072490-2 (Vol. 3) ISBN-13: 978-0-16-072491-6 / ISBN-10: 0-16-072491-0 (Addendum) ISBN-13: 978-0-16-072492-3 / ISBN-10: 0-16-072492-9 (Set) Delivery Systems Still, I believe that the Arab nation has a right to ask: Delivery Systems thirty nine missiles? Who will fi re the Fortieth? Saddam Husayn This page intentionally left blank. Contents Key Findings............................................................................................................................................ 1 Evolution of Iraq’s Delivery Systems........................................................................................... 3 The Regime Strategy and WMD Timeline.......................................................................... 3 Ambition (1980-91) ............................................................................................................ 3 Decline (1991-96) ...............................................................................................................4 Recovery (1996-98)............................................................................................................. 5 Miscalculation (2002-2003) ................................................................................................ 7 Resolving the Retained Scud-Variant Missile Question .............................................................. 9 Liquid-Propellant Missile Developments .................................................................................... 9 Al Samud II ...................................................................................................................... 10 Al Samud Warhead ........................................................................................................... 14 Al Samud II Warhead ....................................................................................................... 16 Solid-Propellant Missile Developments .................................................................................... 17 Al Fat’h Missile Program ........................................................................................................... 17 Background ....................................................................................................................... 17 Delivery Systems General Characteristics ..................................................................................................... 18 Propulsion.......................................................................................................................... 18 Guidance and Control........................................................................................................ 19 Warhead............................................................................................................................. 21 Testing ............................................................................................................................... 25 Material Balance ............................................................................................................... 25 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 28 Al ‘Ubur Missile Program ......................................................................................................... 28 Background ....................................................................................................................... 28 Propulsion.......................................................................................................................... 29 Guidance and Control........................................................................................................ 29 Warhead............................................................................................................................. 30 Testing ............................................................................................................................... 30 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 30 Other Composite Solid-Propellant Systems ..................................................................... 30 Long-Range Ballistic Missile Projects ............................................................................. 31 Clustering SA-2/Volga Engines Designs ................................................................................... 31 SA-2 Conversions to Surface-to-Surface Missiles .................................................................... 35 Large-Diameter Solid-Propellant Missile Project ..................................................................... 35 Program Development ...................................................................................................... 35 i New Cruise Missile Projects ...................................................................................................... 37 HY-2 Range Extension ..................................................................................................... 37 Propulsion System ............................................................................................................ 39 Warhead ............................................................................................................................ 39 Guidance and Control ....................................................................................................... 39 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 39 The Jinin [Jenin] Project ............................................................................................................ 39 Propulsion System ............................................................................................................ 40 Warhead ............................................................................................................................ 41 Guidance and Control ....................................................................................................... 41 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 41 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs)............................. 41 Brief History...................................................................................................................... 42 MiG-21 RPV ............................................................................................................................. 42 Background ....................................................................................................................... 42 Roles and Missions............................................................................................................ 44 L-29 RPV (Al Bay’ah) .............................................................................................................. 44 Background ....................................................................................................................... 44 Roles and Missions ........................................................................................................... 44 Huwaysh’s Accounting of the L-29 RPV Program .................................................................... 45 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 46 Al Yamamah Project .................................................................................................................. 46 Background ....................................................................................................................... 46 Ibn-Firnas UAVs ........................................................................................................................ 47 Background ....................................................................................................................... 47 Characteristics ................................................................................................................... 47 Missions ............................................................................................................................ 48 Foreign Assistance............................................................................................................. 48 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 51 Al Quds UAV Program .............................................................................................................. 52 Background ....................................................................................................................... 52 Characteristics ..................................................................................................................