1 Jordan joining the Gulf Co- positions dating back to the rift which operation Council (GCC), strategic divided the Arab world with Iraq's invasion regional re-alignment of Kuwait in 1990, and the "vengeance politics" that followed. As Jordan grew Republished with the kind permission of Dr. Fares closer to the policy positions of Saudi Braizat, Associate Professor of Political Science, and Arabia over the past decade, the likelihood Associate Researcher, heading the Public Opinion of its being able to bridge differences with Program, at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (Doha Institute, Qatar) other Gulf states improved significantly but still were not sufficient to make the GCC accept Jordanian membership. Instead, it was the spread of revolution across the Arab t was not widely viewed as surprising region that has made it possible for Jordan to that the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC)i receive an unequivocal favorable reception. consultative summit announced a I favorable position on Jordan's application to join the GCC. The same cannot be said, Also for Jordan, accession to the GCC is essential for the security and survival of a however, of the GCC's vulnerable country that faces a record simultaneous decision budget deficit, soaring foreign debt, rising to invite Morocco. unemployment, numerous pockets of While it is striking poverty - and remains surrounded understandable, for by bloody instability in Palestine, Syria, and both geopolitical and geographic proximity reasons, for the GCC to accept Jordan's Iraq. The regime also faces a serious threat request to join the grouping, Morocco has from Israel's unstated but unmistakable "transfer policy," which seeks to force as only the geopolitical perspective in its favor. many Palestinians as possible to flee However, geography and geopolitics are not occupation and its associated hardships for the only factors at play here, especially for other countries - mainly neighboring Jordan. the GCC. Accession to the GCC would mitigate some, but not all, of these problems. In Jordan's case, the GCC's invitation to start negotiating accession into the GCC is as For the GCC, Jordan has proved to be a timely for Jordan as it is for the reliable partner in securing the northern organization. Both sides have vested borders of Saudi Arabia, and, by extension, interests in building this partnership. Over contributed to the security goals of other the past 11 years, Jordan has covertly Gulf states, particularly with regard to lobbied the Gulf states and other influential effective control of drug smuggling. Yet countries as part of a campaign to realize even this does not seem to have been a this strategic goal. The ebbs and flows of decisive factor in the GCC decision. Should this process have been affected by regional this factor have been sufficient to convince events and trends, some of which flow from 2011 © 2 GCC to accept Jordan's membership, it accession to the GCC. It is too early to tell would have joined years ago. whether this eventuality will materialize, but also too soon to rule it out. The newly Monarchies across the region have also felt emerging movement of democratic activism the heat of Arab revolutions and found across the Arab world will no doubt remain themselves in a position where they have to vigilant and probably be aggressive in come to the rescue and preservation of one criticizing backtracking by any state, be it a another. Consequently, Saudi Arabia defied monarchy or a republic. This kind of the "advice" of its staunch Western allies, "oversight" could be a major force in the leading other GCC states to stabilize the coming years, particularly since the current monarchy in Bahrain by sending in the reinvigoration of the Pan-Arab democratic "Peninsula Shield" force.ii It also pledged spirit has gained sufficient momentum to $10 billion to Bahrain and an equal amount influence internal political structures in all to another GCC state rocked by protests, states, regardless of their rulers' positions. Oman. This strategic repositioning, largely in response to domestic calls for sweeping On another level, regime similarities that political change, also has led the GCC to Jordan and Morocco already share with the reshape itself as a club for the other GCC states figure to help make the remaining monarchies in the Arab world: inauguration of an enlarged bloc of eight Jordan and Morocco. Both of these countries, a force to reckon with, whether countries, however, have officially begun within the Arab League or vis-à-vis other processes of political reform which have not Arab states which are not monarchies. The yet yielded a change of existing power latter include post-revolution republics structures. Given the history of previous which are likely to make considerable "reform projects", current reform initiatives progress towards functioning democracies. are not expected to produce significant These may be perceived by the monarchies, change in the existing political power. Royal therefore, as "threats by example," a families giving up power, or some of it, to collective challenge with which the GCC elected governments in new member-states members will have to deal for the hardly seems an outcome the GCC would foreseeable future. It is therefore possible like to see happening because the spillover that the two blocs will come to find effects would challenge the very structures themselves locked in a power struggle, which existing members have so closely perhaps even a new Arab cold war between guarded. monarchies of various degrees of liberalism and despotism and republics of varying Critics in Jordan have pointed to the democratic functionality. possibility that political reform might be sacrificed to the potential economic prosperity promised by the kingdom's Views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of SAGE International 2011 © 3 http://english.dohainstitute.org/ *** GCC logo image: http://topnews.ae/images/GCC-LOGO.jpg (Accessed: 17/06/2011) i A political organisation comprising the Arabian Gulf states of: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Founded in 1981. ii Peninsula Shield is a multinational military force formed from among the GCC states in 1984 to ensure their mutual defence. 2011 © .