THINK LOGISTICS – SPACE LOGISTICS ! Florian Loire Strategy for civil launchers Space School - 25 June 2019 #spaceenablers 1 DISRUPTION IN THE SPACE MARKET COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SPACE LOGISTICS @ ESTACA - 25/06/2019 Existing Space Economy has real economic value to society Science & Meteorology …. Exploration Navigation/Positioning Earth Observation Telecommunications THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. #space- enablers THE GOOD OLD DAYS: A FEW WELL SEGMENTED LAUNCH SERVICE MARKET SEGMENTS THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S SPACE LOGISTICS @ ESTACA 07/12/2018 WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - ARIANE 5 THE EUROPEAN WORKHORSE WITH 104 LAUNCHES PERFORMED ARIANE 5 ES Fairing ARIANE 5 ECA Height: 17 m Launch weight: 760 t Ø 5.4 m Launch weight: 780 t Thrust: 1,340 t Thrust: 1,340 t Dual Launch System (SYLDA) Ø 4 m useful Last HM7B engine Still the Thrust: 6.5 t mission in benchmark 2018 Reignitable Aestus engine for GTO Thrust: 2.7 t missions 2 boosters Vulcain 2 engine Thrust: 136 t * All references to tons (t) are metric tons throughout THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SASGMBH – ALL– ALL RIGHTS RIGHTS RESERVED. RESERVED. - 25/06/2019 REVOLUTION: LEO SMALLSATS CONSTELLATIONS THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SPACE LOGISTICS @ ESTACA - Source: bloomberg.com REVOLUTION: GEO SMALLSATS THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - Source: www.astranis.com REVOLUTION: IN ORBIT SERVICING Source: ESA.blog.int Source: Effective Space Solution THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SPACE LOGISTICS @ ESTACA - Institutional market complemented with Digital Economy financing …. New business models What Disruption is taking place? High Tech Industry Industrial optimization Geopolitical environment Acceleration of Innovation Cycles National interests of contributing nations New work methodologies Sovereignty and strategic / military interests (digitalization, Agile…) …. THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - QUICK EVOLUTION OF COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 1st launch Domestic competition 1st launch st in 2018 1 launch in 2017 MEDIUM / HEAVY LAUNCHERS in 2016 2021 Ariane 5 Soyuz Proton Falcon 9 Atlas V H-II Long March-3 GSLV Mk.II Ariane 6 Falcon Heavy New Glenn Vulcan OmegA Starship Angara H-III Soyuz 5 Long March-5 GSLV Mk.III Falcon 9 A5 Block 5 1st launch in 1st launch 2015 et 2016 SMALL LAUNCHERS in 2016 1st launch in 2018 Vega PSLV Dnepr Minotaur-C Rockot Long March-2 Soyuz-1 Vega C PSLV Angara 1.2 Cyclone 4M Epsilon 2 Long March- 6 & 7 Electron LauncherOne Vector Alpha TODAY TOMORROW THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 25/06/2019 2 TOWARDS SPACE LOGISTICS SERVICES THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 25/06/2019 SPACE LOGISTICS CONCEPT ADAPTING END-TO-END TRANSPORTATION SERVICE TO CLIENT NEEDS Defining the nodes and flows of the space transportation network (Constellation) Satellite GEO Satellite Asteroids Mars Earth Sub-orbital/ HAPS Space Station(s) Moon To transport: For activities on nodes Enabling growth in market segments • Micro/small to large satellites Navigation Telecom Earth Observation • Cargo / payloads • Humans Safety & Security Human flight + cargo Science • Raw materials • Fuels Space Production Mining • … THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 25/06/2019 THE DRIVERS FOR SPACE ECONOMY A (very) profitable business prospect Conventional Futuristic Conventional commercial customers Futuristic visions of scalability • Telecom broadcast • “Millions of people working and living in space” (Blue Origin) • Broadband • “Making life multi-planetary” (SpaceX) • Earth observation • “Moon Village” (ESA) • … • “Space belongs to everyone” (PTScientists) • “There are $20 trillion checks up there to be cashed” (Planetary Resources) Institutional enablers / customers • “The addressable market could be as large as $37 billion” (NASA, DoD, EC, ESA, CNES, DLR, …) (Bigelow) Enabled through cash available for investment • Customer contracts • Company investments Public Private • R&D contracts / Grants (institutional, • Private fortune Partnerships conventional commercial) • Equity raises through venture capital THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 25/06/2019 What is our European answer ? Enabling Space Economy Identification of minimum bricks for an efficient transport service Simplification for customer by offering end-to-end service Increasing addressable market by offering extra service capabilities for increased societal return THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - ARIANE 6 UNPRECEDENTED FLEXIBILITY, MODULARITY AND COMPETITIVENESS Fairing ARIANE 62 Height: 14 or 20 m ARIANE 64 (2 BOOSTERS) Ø 5.4 m (4 BOOSTERS) Performance: Dual launch system Performance: 4.5-5 t GTO Ø 4.5 m useful 12 t* GTO Launch weight: 530 t* Launch weight: 860 t Thrust: 816 t Reignitable Vinci engine Thrust: 1,530 t Thrust: 18 t 2 or 4 P120C boosters (common with Vega C) Thrust: 459 t Vulcain 2.1 engine Thrust: 140 t * All references to tons (t) are metric tons throughout THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SASGMBH – ALL– ALL RIGHTS RIGHTS RESERVED. RESERVED. - 25/06/2019 ARIANE 6 ALL COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL MISSIONS ARIANE 64 PERFORMANCE MEO LEO 20 t GTO 12 t SSO THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SASGMBH – ALL– ALL RIGHTS RIGHTS RESERVED. RESERVED. - 25/06/2019 LAUNCHERS ARE THE FIRST KEY ENABLER FOR SPACE LOGISTICS A competitive and continuously improving launcher Development of alternative vs launch vehicles targeting the same family is the first key building block timeframe ICARUS new lightweight upper stage (by 2025) Vega-C 2020 Ariane 6 maiden flight 2020 maiden flight FOC 2023 Prometheus THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 25/06/2019 MISSION VERSATILITY IS KEY COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE A family of innovative dispensers and future AG kickstage to answer several market needs and improve Ariane 6 market capture Multi-payload for GTO and M/LEO constellation GEO dispatching • Dual launch towards GTO • Deploying (big) constellations • Transportation of stack of small • Replenishing in multiple planes sats to GEO • Galileo 1st and 2nd generation Dispenser(s) MLS Rideshare • A regular piggyback Launch Service for light Satellites Enabling complex and long • Offering affordable tickets to any duration missions Orbit, to all segments of the light Satellites market • From the spare capacity of the • Exploration (lunar and cargo) Launcher, after the primary Kick Stage(s) • Large Science missions A62 A64 passenger mission THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 25/06/2019 18 LUNAR EXPLORATION Total Government Investment Global interest converging towards 2013-2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 the Moon $67B $81B $93B 2017 $15B (74% from US ) 2008-2017 -> 6 Mars missions 53% 25% 10% 9% 3% transportation orbital Mars other deep Moon 2018-2027 -> Mars missions 10 infrastructure exploration space exploration exploration 44% 26% 14% 9% 7% 2008-2017 -> 8 Lunar missions transportation orbital Moon other deep Mars infrastructure exploration space exploration exploration 2018-2027 -> 50 Lunar missions 2027 $20B (64% from US ) Lunar Surface End-to-End Services (ISRU) Ariane 6 + Lander + ~300kg A flagship missions for Europe, payload transportation to the by Europe, for strategic lunar