WHY DO POLITICAL PARTIES SPLIT? UNDERSTANDING PARTY SPLITS AND FORMATION OF SPLINTER PARTIES IN TURKEY A PhD Dissertation by ÖZHAN DEMİRKOL Department of Political Science İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University Ankara August 2014 To Defne and Günay WHY DO POLITICAL PARTIES SPLIT? UNDERSTANDING PARTY SPLITS AND FORMATION OF SPLINTER PARTIES IN TURKEY Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences of İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University by ÖZHAN DEMİRKOL In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE İHSAN DOĞRAMACI BİLKENT UNİVERSİTY ANKARA AUGUST 2014 I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science. -------------------------------------------- Assistant Professor Zeki Sarıgil Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science. -------------------------------------------- Professor Elizabeth Özdalga Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science. -------------------------------------------- Assistant Professor Cenk Saraçoğlu Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science. -------------------------------------------- Assistant Professor Ioannis N. Grigoriadis Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science. -------------------------------------------- Assistant Professor Dimitris Tsarouhas Examining Committee Member Approval of the Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences -------------------------------------------- Professor Erdal Erel Director ABSTRACT WHY DO POLITICAL PARTIES SPLIT? UNDERSTANDING PARTY SPLITS AND FORMATION OF SPLINTER PARTIES IN TURKEY Demirkol, Özhan PhD, Department of Political Science Supervisor: Assistant Prof. Dr. Zeki Sarıgil December 2013 The process of splinter party formation has been understudied. This is related with the difficulties in studying the intraparty realm of politics and the inability of the splinter parties to turn into successful competitors. Employing an actor-oriented approach, this study traces the reasons behind splits in mainstream parties and formation of splinter parties. It intends to develop a theoretical model for explaining party splits in Turkey. It is asserted that party split is one of the possible outcomes of the competition between the dissenting faction and the dominant faction supporting the party leader. This outcome is preceded by two stages: dissent, and intraparty conflict. Strategies developed by dissenting faction and the party leader’s response are conditioned by a number of endogenous and exogenous factors. Endogenous factors include the nature of disagreement, relative iii power of competing factions across the different layers of party organization and leadership autonomy. Exogenous factors include the costs of forming a new party and the perceived viability for a new party. Splinter party is formed in case the dissident faction that departs from the parent organization chooses to invest on a new party rather than switching to an established party. The model proposed in this dissertation is illustrated by a comparative analysis of five cases of party splits in Turkish party system since the transition to democracy in 1946. The political parties that are analyzed within the scope of this study include the Democrat Party, the Republican People’s Party, the Justice Party, the True Path Party and the Democratic Left Party. The analysis reveals that endogenous factors are more influential over party splits compared to the exogenous factors. Moreover, in case the dissidents are unlikely to voice within the party platforms, they might simply resign without voice. Key words: Party Split, Splinter Party Formation, Turkish Politics, Political Parties. iv ÖZET SİYASİ PARTİLER NEDEN BÖLÜNÜR? TÜRKİYE’DE PARTİ BÖLÜNMELERİNİ VE BÖLÜNEREK OLUŞAN PARTİLERİ ANLAMAK Demirkol, Özhan Doktora, Siyaset Bilimi Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Yar. Doç. Dr. Zeki Sarıgil Aralık 2013 Parti bölünmeleri ve bölünerek oluşan partiler üzerine fazla çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Bu durum parti içi dinamikleri çalışmanın zorluğundan ve bölünerek oluşan partilerin çoğunlukla tercih edilir partilere dönüşmemiş olmasından kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu çalışma aktör odaklı bir yaklaşım izleyerek ana partilerde bölünmelerin ve bölünerek parti oluşumlarının altında yatan sebeplere değinmektedir. Diğer bir deyişle Türkiye’de yaşanmış parti bölünmelerini açıklamaya yönelik teorik bir model ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışmada temel olarak parti bölünmesinin lideri destekleyen hizip ile muhalif hizip arasındaki çatışmada izlenebilecek yollardan birisi olduğu ortaya koyulmaktadır. Bu yolun tercih edilmesi üç aşamalı bir süreç sonunda gerçekleşmektedir: rahatsızlık, parti içi çatışma ve ayrılık. Muhalif hizip ve parti lideri tarafından tercih edilen stratejiler v parti içi ve parti dışı faktörler tarafından belirlenmektedir. Parti içi faktörler anlaşmazlığın niteliği, çatışan hiziplerin partinin değişik katmanlarındaki gücü ve lider otonomisinden oluşmakta iken parti dışı faktörler ise yeni parti kurma maliyeti ve yeni partiye olan ihtiyaç algısından oluşmaktadır. Yazar tarafından sunulan model 1946’da demokrasiye geçişten bu yana yaşanmış beş örnek olay üzerinde karşılaştırılmalı olarak uygulanmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında incelenen partiler Demokrat Parti, Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, Adalet Partisi, Doğru Yol Partisi ve Demokratik Sol Partiden oluşmaktadır. Parti dışı faktörlerin zaman içinde değişmiş olmasından kaynaklı olarak incelenen zaman dilimi üç parçaya bölünmüştür. Bahsi geçen parti bölünmelerinin incelenmesi sonucunda parti içi faktörlerin parti dışı faktörlere kıyasla parti bölünmelerinde daha belirleyici olduğu bulunmuştur. Ayrıca muhalif hizbe mensup üyelerin parti içinde rahatsızlıklarını dile getirme imkânı olmadığı durumlarda partiden direk ayrılmayı tercih ettikleri gözlemlenmiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Parti Bölünmeleri, Bölünerek Oluşan Partiler, Türk Siyasi Tarihi, Siyasi Partiler vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am deeply grateful to many people for their encouragement and support in the course of writing this dissertation. In this regard, I would like to take the opportunity to thank first to my supervisor Assistant Prof. Dr. Zeki Sarıgil, whose timely and detailed assistance and guidance were critical to the development of this work. I will always be grateful for the superb assistance, guidance and encouragement that I have received from him. The development of this work has also profoundly benefited from the input, feedback, and guidance of my other committee and jury members. I am very grateful to Prof. Dr. Elizabeth Özdalga, and Assistant Prof. Dr. Cenk Saraçoğlu for their feedback and suggestions on my work as it was developing. I would like to thank Assistant Prof. Dr. Ioannis Grigoriadis and Assistant Prof. Dr. Dimitris Tsarouhas for his suggestions and encouragement at the end of the process. I would also like to express my deep gratitude for Prof. Dr. Ergun Özbudun, Prof. Alev Çınar, Associate Prof. Dr. İlker Aytürk, Assistant Prof. Dr. Nesim Şeker, and Prof. Dr. Ahmet Gürbüz who provided critical help and encouragement. I would like to express sincere thanks to my fellow classmates and the other PhD students and candidates who were sojourning with me. So I would like to thank vii Sezen Yaraş, Güliz Sütçü, Nazlı Şenses, Şebnem Yardımcı, Duygu Ersoy, Ezgi Pınar, Duygu Tanış and many others for their wonderful friendship. I am also very grateful to Özkan Daysal, Lütfiye Akyol, Gökhan Kaya, Müjgan Ergül, Mustafa Yıldırım and Zeynep Diker for their kind support, help and friendship along the way. I would also like to express sincere thanks to Senem Mert, Alaaddin Köroğlu, Şenol Kör and Birgül Göroğlu for their hospitality. I would like to thank my family for the love, support and encouragement that they provided me during this process. I would like to thank my mother and father Nuri and Gülseren Demirkol and my brother Özgür Demirkol for both emotional and very tangible support that they provided along the way. I owe a very special thanks to my wife and very best friend, Günay. She has tirelessly stood behind me and undergone much difficulty to ensure that I completed this dissertation and PhD. I would also like to thank my little daughter, Defne, for providing me with necessary diversions from my dissertation and with hundreds of extra smiles and laughter that put the whole of my work in its proper perspective. Last but not least, I must express my special thanks to the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for the financial means they have provided all though my PhD studies at Bilkent University. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................... iii ÖZET........................................................................................................................ v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS