Survey of existing bioeconomic models Final report April 2009 For: The European Commission Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries ii Survey of existing bioeconomic models Final Report Studies and Pilot Projects for Carrying Out the Common Fisheries Policy No FISH/2007/07 Lot 5 Survey of existing bioeconomic models (SI2.507729) Report prepared by, AZTI-Tecnalia: Raúl Prellezo. CEFAS: Alyson Little. DTU-AQUA: Rasmus Nielsen and Bo Sølgaard Andersen. FOI: Jesper Levring Andersen. Wageningen IMARES: Christine Röckmann. IREPA: Paolo Accadia. LEI: Jeff Powell and Erik Buisman. Disclaimer This report has been prepared under contract FISH/2007/07 – Lot 5 – by AZTI-Tecnalia, CEFAS, DTU-Aqua, FOI, Wageningen IMARES, IREPA and LEI. It does not necessarily reflect the view of the European Commission. Citation Prellezo, R., Accadia, P., Andersen J. L, Little, A., Nielsen R., Andersen, B.S., Röckmann C., Powell J. and Buisman, E. (2009) Survey of existing bioeconomic models: Final report. Sukarrieta: AZTI-Tecnalia. 283 pages. Survey of existing bioeconomic models Survey of existing bioeconomic models iii Preparation of this document The sustainability of fisheries in terms of biological conservation and economic viability of the fleets is integrally linked to the approach followed in the management of the fisheries. For this reason, the Commission is seeking to assess different management options with a view to improving the overall effectiveness of fisheries management and so bioeconomic models can play a key role. Under the scope of different research projects, where research has been done to support the introduction of various financial instruments or by personal initiatives, several models have been developed to evaluate options. Each of the models developed has specific tasks with more or less generality in terms of covering the specific characteristics of the fisheries and with more or less flexibility in order to deal with some other questions or other types of management advice. These models are not clearly addressed in term of usability for the assessment of a range of management issues. In that sense it is necessary to explicitly address the advantages and limitations of each model when assessing a management alternative. In that sense several initiatives have been carried out to review bioeconomic models, and of special interest to this tender is the SGECA report (SEC 2006c), where some of the operational bioeconomic models that could be used by the STECF were listed. In the review of that work (SEC 2006a) the STECF recommended the provision of documentation for each model according to the guidelines given in the Report of the Subgroup on bioeconomic models. With these guidelines as a starting point, but also considering the key issues explained above, a full review of the EIAA, TEMAS, MOSES, BEMMFISH, BIRDMOD, MEFISTO, AHF, EMMFID, SRRMCF, COBAS, ECOCORP, ECONMULT and EFIMAS models, has been undertaken. This document presents the final report of this study, funded by the EC project “Survey of existing bioeconomic models”, (SI2.507729), and coordinated by AZTI-Tecnalia in collaboration with CEFAS, DTU-Aqua, FOI, IMARES, IREPA and LEI. Survey of existing bioeconomic models iv Executive summary Executive Summary A bioeconomic model is a theoretical construct that represents a system, with a set of variables and a set of logical and quantitative relationships between them. They are constructed to enable reasoning within an idealized logical framework about these economic processes, integrating biological processes and industry behaviour. They have played an important role in exploring diverse issues in fisheries management for the last 40 years. In fisheries there is an extensive range of models that provide a comprehensive impact assessment of different management alternatives as asked by the CFP. This report presents a review of the existing operating bioeconomic models within the EU. In particular the following models have been reviewed; EIAA, TEMAS, MOSES, BEMMFISH, BIRDMOD (including Aladym), MEFISTO, AHF, EMMFID, SRRMCF, COBAS, ECOCORP, ECONMULT and FLR (EFIMAS). The structure of the report as well as the review performed has focused on giving the reader a reference rather than something to be read cover to cover. The review has been based on the existing literature (reports and scientific papers), communication with model developers, and a feedback process among the project group and two external reviewers. The possible tasks for which bioeconomic models produce advice, range from the general evaluation of the fisheries sector to the evaluation of specific regulations. Within these tasks, we have paid particular attention to the tasks performed within the EU STECF. For each analyzed task some specific issues need to be considered: • Model orientation: If the model is output or input driven. • If it is a simulation (what if) or an optimization model (what’s best). • Characteristics of the economic and biological modules and the links between them. • Data requirements: Biological and economic modules initializations. We have paid particular attention to the model requirements of stocks assessments and also analyzed data requirements in relation to whether the DCR provides sufficient information for each model. • The output format and in particular the bioeconomic indicators that each model produces. Based on the specific issues explained above and some others considered as relevant, a review framework consisting of specific and general tables has been created to facilitate a quick comparison and selection between models. In addition a summary table has been produced with the STECF tasks for which each model could produce advice. Survey of existing bioeconomic models Executive summary v Following the review provided, the next paragraphs summarise the main characteristics of each model, in terms of the objectives for which they were created, the advice they provide, the software used, the data requirements and the main limitations that they face. AHF AHF has been created to simulate the economic behavioural response of fishing fleets to the economic outcome in previous years of the fishery with response to the entry exit or invest- disinvest in the fishery changing fleet capacity. The model contains an economic and biological module. AHF can assess TAC (total allowable catches) and effort regulations (switching between harvest and effort regulations), in addition to HCR (harvest control rules), discards, and cases of non- compliance (assuming that landings are proportional to quotas). Implemented in FLR, AHF has been applied to North Sea Flatfish and Roundfish fisheries, and can be run with data provided by the DCR. In any case it should be taken into account that results are extremely sensitive to the calibration of the model. BEMMFISH BEMMFISH is a simulation model that projects biological and economic variables into the future to test different Mediterranean fisheries management and policies. BEMMFISH can assess; effort regulations, vessel numbers and changes in taxation (by period), where it is possible to adjust effort for each species. Selectivity changes can also be assessed (but not directly). Implemented in Java, the economic and biological models are linked, however the main limitations are that a maximum of 4 species and 3 fleets can be modelled and that BEMMFISH cannot be run only using DCR data. BIRDMOD BIRDMOD is a simulation model to predict effects of different management policies from a biological, economic and social perspective and consists of 4 modules; a biological, an economic, management and a state variation module. BIRDMOD can assess restrictions on fishing effort (in terms of capacity and activity) and also provide advice in relation to changes in selectivity, taxes and subsidies. Survey of existing bioeconomic models vi Executive summary Implemented in R, BIRDMOD has been designed specifically for Mediterranean fisheries management. The applications analyzed use the Aladyn biological module and can be run with data provided by the DCR. COBAS COBAS is an option comparison model in which the effects of a particular policy are compared to the effect of the current management system. COBAS provides assessment for management of the commercial and the recreational sector, changing of effort regulations, TACs, decommissioning schemes, levies, prices of fish, mesh sizes, area closures and post harvest policy options (traceability, ecolabelling,…). Implemented in GAMS it has been used for fisheries in the English Channel, Celtic Sea and Western approaches. The main limitation of COBAS is that is does not include a biological model. Data supplied from the DCR data should be sufficient for running COBAS, excluding the environmental and recreational components. ECOCORP ECOCORP is a simulation model to assess the economic impacts of effort reductions imposed by the North Sea Cod recovery plan of the North Sea fishing fleet segments. It incorporates short-terms impacts and multi-species interactions. ECOCORP provides advice in terms of effort regulation (e.g. decommissioning, cod fishing moratorium). Implemented in a dynamic system framework, the model can be used with the data provided by the DCR given the MSVPA estimates to initialise the biological sub-model. Whilst ECOCORP includes multi-species interactions, the main limitation is that it is very case study specific. ECONMULT ECONMULT is a simulation model for the management of the Barents Sea fisheries using a multi-species and multi-fleet