UPD SOUTH AFRICA - MOZAMBIQUE RELATIONS IN THE 1990s Anthoni van Nieuwkerk, the Institute's Senior Research Officer, keeps a close watch on Mozambican developments. This paper is based on a very recent visit. 1. Introduction agricultural production is being revived. Are these hopes well-founded? Many analysts On the 27th and 28th of October 1994, remain sceptical. In my view, a more realistic Mozambique will experience its first national assessment must consider the following factors: multi-party elections in living memory. This event, although the culmination of a long process of * Economic growth must be seen in the negotiations between former adversaries Frelimo context of starting from an extremely low and Renamo, will be overshadowed by other base. Problematic too is the continuing considerations: among them, the daunting task of decline in industrial production, now in its rebuilding a shattered society, revitalising the fourth year of downturn. Industrial national economy, and rethinking Mozambique's operation is extremely ineffective, using place in the community of Southern African states. obsolete technology. There is a continuing Given its dominant position, it is perhaps inevitable shortage of raw materials and spare parts. that neighbouring South Africa will play a prominent role in all of these developments. In * In rural areas, appearances are deceptive. light of the remarkable interplay of forces in the Even though farmers are now benefitting transition processes evident in both countries, the from a peace dividend as well as good aim of this essay is to report on current agricultural prospects, more is needed to developments in Mozambique and relations between achieve sustainable growth. There is an it and South Africa. extreme shortage of skilled human resources, and as a result of the war, virtually no local government structures 2. Peace in Mozambique - But where is the are in operation. These deficiencies were development? well illustrated by the disastrous management of the 1993/4 bumper Visitors to Mozambique are often struck by the cashew-nut crop. Because of the failure of new mood of optimism evident in many quarters both the authorities and the delivery agents (especially noticeable among street vendors to reach agreement on prices, all five peddling curios: their prospects have improved processing plants have ground to a halt. dramatically with the influx of dollars from the Result: no cashew nuts for export. huge UN contingent in the capital). Closer investigation reveals that this is very much a * Even though investment opportunities psychological phenomena, flowing from a belief appear attractive, investors remain that the negotiation process (begun in 1992) will hesitant. The main reason for the delay, deliver peace and (redevelopment. Indeed, this apart from awaiting the outcome of the feeling is supported by economic data: it appears election in August, lies with the that the economy has turned around, growing by performance (or lack thereof) of the 5.6% in 1993: rural transport works again: and bureaucrats in Maputo. It is known that THE SOUTH AFRICAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Jan Smuts House P.O. Box 31596 University of the Witwatersrand Braamfontein Braamfontein Johannesburg 2017 South Africa Tel: (Oil) 339-2021 Telex: 4-27291 SA Fax: (Oil) 339-2154 some potential investors have been waiting so have 13 political parties. The CNE is also since 1992 for a detailed investment code, confident that the parallel-running peace process, without which informed decisions cannot which includes the demobilisation of the rival easily be made. armed forces, is well under control. It therefore does not foresee a 'Savimbi-option' scenario for * Many analysts believe that donor Mozambique. involvement perpetuates Mozambique's dependency on the North; the country therefore remains underdeveloped. Indeed, Electoral Divisions and Numbers of MPs for there are many problems related to aid each to elect dependency, including aid addiction. For example, the extent of external support for Area No. of Potential Voters No. of Seats the national budget to be balanced, South amounts to 75 % -80 %. Added to this is the City of Maputo 486,685 20 problem of growing corruption. World Maputo 440,432 14 Bank observers believe that paradoxically, Gaza 729,473 16 money is not the problem in Mozambique; Inhambane 687,559 19 rather, it is the 'absorption capacity' of the Centre country: the ability to spend money wisely Sofala 683,904 19 on development projects. Manica 328,141 11 Tete 464,601 14 * Underlying all of this is a wider question Zambezia 1,533,444 48 concerning the impact on society of North colonialism and underdevelopment, Nampula 1,473,853 52 inappropriate state policies, destabilisation, Niassa 413,158 10 and 're-colonialisation'. What has Cabo Delgado 653,600 24 variously been described as the collapse of Source: CNE (National Elections Commission) estimates, before the end of the state in Mozambique, social anarchy, voter registration and political decompression,1 has left an (See Map on Page 5). indelible mark on the country and its people, with after-effects to be felt for Talking to the public reveals that potential problem generations to come. areas do exist, however, and it has to do with voter education (adult literacy rate: 31%); the sheer Nevertheless, one need not be deterministic in inaccessibility of parts of the countryside; and the thinking about the country's future. New trends in lack of information available to potential voters in global as well as regional politics, and especially an especially the northern parts of the country. Given emphasis on societies to adopt democracy, might these obstacles, voting will almost definitively not offer hopeful possibilities. Some analysts argue that be completed within two days. Consider, also, that the dynamics of the peace process, international the CNE must organise the transport and delivery support for reconstruction, and the coming of voting material to 7000 'assembly points' or multi-party election in October are aspects of a voting stations throughout the country in the week development that should result in normalisation and prior to the election itself. As we have learnt in eventual recovery. What then are the prospects for South Africa, there is every possibility of the the coming election? voting process being dragged out considerably longer than actually planned or budgeted for. 3. Election 1994: Some Change? No On the question of the election outcome, opinion change? polls have generally put President Chissano and his ruling Frelimo party ahead of Mr Dhlakama and All indications are that with the invaluable support his ex-rebel Renamo movement. Of the 16 of the United Nations peace-keeping mission in opposition parties, only three or four (including Mozambique (ONUMOZ), preparations for a Renamo, Monamo/PMSD, and Fumo/PCD) can be relatively free and fair election are well advanced. considered as serious candidates for presidential elections and might obtain significant percentages At the time of writing, it appeared the 21-member 2 National Electoral Commission (CNE) was for the legislative elections. Generally, given the confident of successfully completing the registration lack of both democratic structures and a vibrant, of voters and political parties. According to the participatory civil society, it appears that the CNE, 80% of potential voters (7 million voters out prevailing balance of forces will result in little of a population of 16 million) have registered, and change of governance in the post-election phase. Given this situation, will it be possible for the new regardless of the outcome. Mozambican government to turn to the region for support in realising its National Reconstruction Plan Currently, the following bilateral agreements are in (NRP)? place: * The Nkomati Accord (to be phased out 4. Bilateral relations: No to politics, Yes to and replaced by agreements listed below); technical co-operation * Sea Fisheries Agreement; Mozambique has limited options. The dominant foreign policy direction in recent years has been * Trade Office Agreement; both to secure the flow of emergency and development aid from the North, and to maintain a * Labour Agreement; working relationship with those International Financial Institutions that are involved in (some * Bilateral Air Services Agreement; would argue, run) the country's economic rehabilitation programme. However, the problems * Civil Aviation Agreement; associated with this option are increasingly recognised by Mozambicans. Secondly, * Cahora Bassa Agreement (on electricity); Mozambique is tied into regional political initiatives primarily through membership of SADC. * Agreement on Relocation of Refugees; Thirdly, since 1990, Mozambique's relationship * Agreement on Diplomatic Relations. with South Africa, which previously was strained by political and ideological factors, have been In future, agreements on security, extradition, and characterised by a process of normalisation. road transport might be entered into. As things However, the relationship continues to be currently stand, therefore, the two countries have extremely uneven. full diplomatic relations (established in October 1993), with the extent of cooperation perhaps The current view from Pretoria (where bureaucrats reflected in the signing (by the two presidents) of still determine policy - rather than the new political an Agreement for the Establishment of a Joint elite) is that relations with Mozambique,