ALEX MARLAND AND THIERRY GIASSON, EDS CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS Communication, Strategy, and Democracy POINTS DE VUE SUR 2015 L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE Communication, stratégie et démocratie About UBC Press The University of British Columbia Press is Canada’s leading social sciences publisher. With an international reputation for publishing high-quality works of original scholarship, our books draw on and reflect cutting-edge research, pushing the boundaries of academic discourse in innovative directions. Each year UBC Press publishes seventy new titles in a number of fields, including Aboriginal studies, Asian studies, Canadian history, environmental studies, gender and women’s studies, geography, health and food studies, law, media and communications, military and security studies, planning and urban studies, and political science. UBC Press | thought that counts About Samara Samara Canada is dedicated to reconnecting citizens to politics. Established as a charity in 2009, Samara has become Canada’s most trusted, non-partisan champion of increased civic engagement and a more positive public life. Samara’s research and educational programming shines new light on Canada’s democratic system and encourages greater political participation across the country to build better politics and a better Canada for everyone. About the Editors Alex Marland is an associate professor of political science and associate dean of arts at Memorial University of Newfoundland. His area of research concerns the use of communication and marketing in Canadian politics, government, and public policy. Alex is the author of Brand Command: Canadian Politics and Democracy in the Age of Message Control, to be published by UBC Press in early 2016. Thierry Giasson is an associate professor of political science at Université Laval, in Québec City. Thierry is the director of the Groupe de recherche en communication politique (GRCP). He is also the current president of the Société québécoise de science politique. His research focuses on political communication, online politique, as well as the effects political marketing practices on political participation and civic engagement. He is co-editor with Alex Marland of the series Communication, Strategy and Politics at UBC Press. Want to Read More? Communication, Strategy, and Politics is a ground-breaking series from UBC Press that examines elite decision making and political communication in today’s hyper-mediated and highly competitive environment. Publications in this series look at the intricate relations between marketing strategy, the media, and political actors and explain how this affects Canadian democracy. They also investigate such interconnected themes as strategic communication, mediatization, opinion research, electioneering, political management, public policy, and e-politics in a Canadian context and in comparison to other countries. Designed as a coherent and consolidated space for diffusion of research about Canadian political communication, the series promotes an interdisciplinary, multi-method, and theoretically pluralistic approach. Series editors: Thierry Giasson and Alex Marland To cite an article for Canadian Election Analysis 2015, please use the following wording: <author name>. 2015. <article title>, in Canadian Election Analysis 2015: Communication, Strategy, and Democracy. Accessed from http://www.ubcpress.ca/CanadianElectionAnalysis2015. CONTENTS ELECTION 2015: REFLECTIONS ON THIS PROJECT AND ON THE CAMPAIGN 1 | Editors’ Remarks: Recapping The 2015 Canadian Election 1 Anna Esselment, Thierry Giasson, Andrea Lawlor, Alex Marland, and Tamara A. Small 4 | Election 2015: Overview Chris Waddell, Carleton University 6 | Election 42: What Happened? Warren Kinsella, Daisy Group 8 | The End of the Harper Dynasty Lawrence LeDuc, University of Toronto THE RULES, REGULATIONS, AND REGIME OF THE CAMPAIGN 10 | Democratic Reform: From Campaign Promise to Policy Change 2 Maxwell A. Cameron, University of British Columbia 12 | Partisans and Elections: Electoral Reform is for Parliament to Address Robert P. Shepherd, Carleton University 14 | Data-Driven Microtargeting in the 2015 General Election Steve Patten, University of Alberta 16 | Political Parties, Campaigns, Data, and Privacy Paul G. Thomas, University of Manitoba 18 | The Permanent Campaign Meets the 78-Day Campaign, and Falls Apart Mark Burgess, The Hill Times 20 | The Long March to the Ballot Box 2015: Voter Fatigue or Enhanced Engagement? Fred Fletcher, York University THE PLAYERS AND THEIR STRATEGIES 3 3.1 POLITICAL PARTIES 22 | The 2015 Election and the Canadian Party System Richard Johnston, University of British Columbia CONTENTS 24 | La campagne du Bloc québécois : Quand on n’a rien à perdre… Thierry Giasson, Université Laval 26 | The Conservative Campaign Tom Flanagan, University of Calgary 28 | Greens by the Numbers Susan Harada, Carleton University 30 | The Liberals’ Campaign for the Ages Brooke Jeffrey, Concordia University 32 | The NDP’s “Government in Waiting” Strategy David McGrane, St. Thomas More College, University of Saskatchewan 3.2 LEADERS, MINISTERS, AND THEIR STAFF 34 | Leading the Party Troops on a Long Campaign: How the Party Leaders Managed the Message Cristine de Clercy, Western University 36 | Political Staff R. Paul Wilson, Carleton University 38 | The Presidentialization of Executive Leadership in Canada Jamie Gillies, St. Thomas University 40 | Ministerial (dis)Advantage in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election Matthew Kerby, Australian National University 3.3 CANDIDATES AND LOCAL CAMPAIGNS 42 | Constituency Campaigning in the 2015 Federal Election Royce Koop, University of Manitoba 44 | All Politics Is Not Local: Local Candidate Tweeting in the 2015 Election Julie Killin, University of Calgary, and Tamara A. Small, University of Guelph 46 | Gender and Election 2015: Continuity with No Real Change Melanee Thomas, University of Calgary 48 | LGBT Activism in the 2015 Federal Election Joanna Everitt, University of New Brunswick—Saint John CONTENTS 50 | Visible Minority and Indigenous Members of Parliament Erin Tolley, University of Toronto 3.4. THIRD PARTIES AND ORGANIZED INTERESTS 52 | Third Parties in the 2015 Federal Election: Partying like It’s 1988? Andrea Lawlor, King’s University College, Western University, and Erin Crandall, Acadia University 54 | Organized Interests Strike Back! Rachel Laforest, Queen’s University 56 | Les syndicats en campagne contre Harper Thomas Collombat, Université du Québec en Outaouais 58 | Public Servants, Political Activity, and “Harperman” Jonathan Craft, University of Toronto 60 | All About Strong Alliances: First Nations Engagement in the Federal Election Pamela Palmater, Ryerson University 62 | Struggles and Opportunities for Issues Advocacy: The Case of the Canadian Federation of Nurses Unions Georgina Grosenick, Carleton University THE MEDIA AND POLITICAL COMMUNICATION 64 | Mobile News: The 2015 Election via News Apps 4 Mary Francoli, Carleton University 66 | Thinking Outside the Box: TV News Broadcasting during the 2015 General Election Jennifer Ditchburn, The Canadian Press 68 | Leaders’ Debates in a Post-Broadcast Democracy Frédérick Bastien, Université de Montréal 70 | The “New Normal” of Mediatization and Narrowcasting Shannon Sampert, Winnipeg Free Press, and Linda Trimble, University of Alberta 72 | Shopping for Votes: A Sequel? Susan Delacourt, The Toronto Star CONTENTS 74 | Letting the Press Decide? Party Coverage, Media Tone, and Issue Salience in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election Newsprint Denver McNeney, McGill University 76 | The Political Science Professor and the Media Anna Esselment, University of Waterloo 78 | The Party Leader’s Image and Brand Management: Party Branding and Negative Ads in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election Jeff MacLeod, Mount Saint Vincent University 80 | Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Political Advertising in the 2015 Election Jonathan Rose, Queen’s University 82 | Trudeau as Celebrity Politician: Winning by More than a Hair Patricia Cormack, St. Francis Xavier University, and Mireille Lalancette, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières 84 | The Blog Is Dead, Long Live the (Micro)Blog! Unpacking Dynamics in Political Blogging during #elxn42 Vincent Raynauld, Emerson College THE CAMPAIGN (NON)ISSUES 86 | Did Election 2015 Prove Kim Campbell Wrong? 5 Jennifer Robson, Carleton University 88 | Missing in Action: Disability Policy and Persons with Disabilities Mario Levesque, Mount Allison University 90 | The Syrian Refugee Crisis and the Salience of International Issues Sean Fleming, University of Cambridge 92 | We’ve Got Some Catching Up to Do: The Public Service and the 2015 Federal Election Amanda Clarke, Carleton University 94 | Constitutional Issues in the 2015 Federal Election Thomas M.J. Bateman, St. Thomas University, and Andrea Lawlor, King’s University College, Western University 96 | Election 2015 and Canada’s Public Services Bryan Evans, Ryerson University CONTENTS THE PROVINCES AND REGIONALISM 98 | Regional Sensibilities and Regional Voting 6 Nelson Wiseman, University of Toronto 100 | Le NPD au Québec : doublé sur sa gauche Eric Montigny et François Gélineau, Université Laval 102 | Provincial Premiers and the 2015 Federal Election Campaign J.P. Lewis, University of New Brunswick 104 | All Politics is Local: The Campaign to Put Urban Issues on the Election Agenda Angelia Wagner, McGill University PUBLIC OPINION POLLS AND VOTER BEHAVIOUR 106 | Horserace Journalism under Stress? 7 J. Scott Matthews, Memorial University 108