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ALEX MARLAND AND THIERRY GIASSON, EDS

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS Communication, Strategy, and Democracy POINTS DE VUE SUR 2015 L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE Communication, stratégie et démocratie About UBC Press The University of Press is ’s leading social sciences publisher. With an international reputation for publishing high-quality works of original scholarship, our books draw on and reflect cutting-edge research, pushing the boundaries of academic discourse in innovative directions. Each year UBC Press publishes seventy new titles in a number of fields, including Aboriginal studies, Asian studies, Canadian history, environmental studies, gender and women’s studies, geography, health and food studies, law, media and communications, military and security studies, planning and urban studies, and political science.

UBC Press | thought that counts About Samara Samara Canada is dedicated to reconnecting citizens to politics. Established as a charity in 2009, Samara has become Canada’s most trusted, non-partisan champion of increased civic engagement and a more positive public life. Samara’s research and educational programming shines new light on Canada’s democratic system and encourages greater political participation across the country to build better politics and a better Canada for everyone. About the Editors Alex Marland is an associate professor of political science and associate dean of arts at Memorial University of Newfoundland. His area of research concerns the use of communication and marketing in Canadian politics, government, and public policy. Alex is the author of Brand Command: Canadian Politics and Democracy in the Age of Message Control, to be published by UBC Press in early 2016. Thierry Giasson is an associate professor of political science at Université Laval, in Québec City. Thierry is the director of the Groupe de recherche en communication politique (GRCP). He is also the current president of the Société québécoise de science politique. His research focuses on political communication, online politique, as well as the effects political marketing practices on political participation and civic engagement. He is co-editor with Alex Marland of the series Communication, Strategy and Politics at UBC Press. Want to Read More? Communication, Strategy, and Politics is a ground-breaking series from UBC Press that examines elite decision making and political communication in today’s hyper-mediated and highly competitive environment. Publications in this series look at the intricate relations between marketing strategy, the media, and political actors and explain how this affects Canadian democracy. They also investigate such interconnected themes as strategic communication, mediatization, opinion research, electioneering, political management, public policy, and e-politics in a Canadian context and in comparison to other countries. Designed as a coherent and consolidated space for diffusion of research about Canadian political communication, the series promotes an interdisciplinary, multi-method, and theoretically pluralistic approach.

Series editors: Thierry Giasson and Alex Marland

To cite an article for Canadian Election Analysis 2015, please use the following wording: . 2015.

, in Canadian Election Analysis 2015: Communication, Strategy, and Democracy. Accessed from http://www.ubcpress.ca/CanadianElectionAnalysis2015. CONTENTS

ELECTION 2015: REFLECTIONS ON THIS PROJECT AND ON THE CAMPAIGN 1 | Editors’ Remarks: Recapping The 2015 Canadian Election 1 Anna Esselment, Thierry Giasson, Andrea Lawlor, Alex Marland, and Tamara A. Small 4 | Election 2015: Overview Chris Waddell,

6 | Election 42: What Happened? , Daisy Group

8 | The End of the Harper Dynasty Lawrence LeDuc, University of

THE RULES, REGULATIONS, AND REGIME OF THE CAMPAIGN 10 | Democratic Reform: From Campaign Promise to Policy Change 2 Maxwell A. Cameron, University of British Columbia 12 | Partisans and Elections: Electoral Reform is for Parliament to Address Robert P. Shepherd, Carleton University

14 | Data-Driven Microtargeting in the 2015 General Election Steve Patten, University of

16 | Political Parties, Campaigns, Data, and Privacy Paul G. Thomas, University of

18 | The Permanent Campaign Meets the 78-Day Campaign, and Falls Apart Mark Burgess, The Hill Times

20 | The Long March to the Ballot Box 2015: Voter Fatigue or Enhanced Engagement? Fred Fletcher,

THE PLAYERS AND THEIR STRATEGIES 3 3.1 POLITICAL PARTIES 22 | The 2015 Election and the Canadian Richard Johnston, University of British Columbia CONTENTS

24 | La campagne du Bloc québécois : Quand on n’a rien à perdre… Thierry Giasson, Université Laval

26 | The Conservative Campaign Tom Flanagan, University of

28 | Greens by the Numbers Susan Harada, Carleton University

30 | The ’ Campaign for the Ages Brooke Jeffrey,

32 | The NDP’s “Government in Waiting” Strategy David McGrane, St. Thomas More College, University of

3.2 LEADERS, MINISTERS, AND THEIR STAFF

34 | Leading the Party Troops on a Long Campaign: How the Party Leaders Managed the Message Cristine de Clercy, Western University

36 | Political Staff R. Paul Wilson, Carleton University

38 | The Presidentialization of Executive Leadership in Canada Jamie Gillies, St. Thomas University

40 | Ministerial (dis)Advantage in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election Matthew Kerby, Australian National University

3.3 CANDIDATES AND LOCAL CAMPAIGNS

42 | Constituency Campaigning in the 2015 Federal Election Royce Koop,

44 | All Politics Is Not Local: Local Candidate Tweeting in the 2015 Election Julie Killin, , and Tamara A. Small, University of

46 | Gender and Election 2015: Continuity with No Real Change Melanee Thomas, University of Calgary

48 | LGBT Activism in the 2015 Federal Election Joanna Everitt, University of —Saint John CONTENTS

50 | Visible Minority and Indigenous Members of Parliament Erin Tolley,

3.4. THIRD PARTIES AND ORGANIZED INTERESTS

52 | Third Parties in the 2015 Federal Election: Partying like It’s 1988? Andrea Lawlor, King’s University College, Western University, and Erin Crandall,

54 | Organized Interests Strike Back! Rachel Laforest, Queen’s University

56 | Les syndicats en campagne contre Harper Thomas Collombat, Université du Québec en Outaouais

58 | Public Servants, Political Activity, and “Harperman” Jonathan Craft, University of Toronto

60 | All About Strong Alliances: Engagement in the Federal Election Pamela Palmater,

62 | Struggles and Opportunities for Issues Advocacy: The Case of the Canadian Federation of Nurses Unions Georgina Grosenick, Carleton University

THE MEDIA AND POLITICAL COMMUNICATION 64 | Mobile News: The 2015 Election via News Apps 4 Mary Francoli, Carleton University 66 | Thinking Outside the Box: TV News Broadcasting during the 2015 General Election Jennifer Ditchburn,

68 | Leaders’ Debates in a Post-Broadcast Democracy Frédérick Bastien, Université de Montréal

70 | The “New Normal” of Mediatization and Narrowcasting Shannon Sampert, Free Press, and Linda Trimble,

72 | Shopping for Votes: A Sequel? Susan Delacourt, The CONTENTS

74 | Letting the Press Decide? Party Coverage, Media Tone, and Issue Salience in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election Newsprint Denver McNeney, McGill University

76 | The Political Science Professor and the Media Anna Esselment, University of Waterloo

78 | The ’s Image and Brand Management: Party Branding and Negative Ads in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election Jeff MacLeod, Mount Saint Vincent University

80 | Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Political Advertising in the 2015 Election Jonathan Rose, Queen’s University

82 | Trudeau as Celebrity Politician: Winning by More than a Hair Patricia Cormack, St. Francis Xavier University, and Mireille Lalancette, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières

84 | The Is Dead, Long Live the (Micro)Blog! Unpacking Dynamics in Political Blogging during #elxn42 Vincent Raynauld, Emerson College

THE CAMPAIGN (NON)ISSUES 86 | Did Election 2015 Prove Wrong? 5 Jennifer Robson, Carleton University 88 | Missing in Action: Disability Policy and Persons with Disabilities Mario Levesque, Mount Allison University

90 | The Syrian Refugee Crisis and the Salience of International Issues Sean Fleming, University of Cambridge

92 | We’ve Got Some Catching Up to Do: The Public Service and the 2015 Federal Election Amanda Clarke, Carleton University

94 | Constitutional Issues in the 2015 Federal Election Thomas M.J. Bateman, St. Thomas University, and Andrea Lawlor, King’s University College, Western University

96 | Election 2015 and Canada’s Public Services Bryan Evans, Ryerson University CONTENTS

THE PROVINCES AND 98 | Regional Sensibilities and Regional Voting 6 Nelson Wiseman, University of Toronto 100 | Le NPD au Québec : doublé sur sa gauche Eric Montigny et François Gélineau, Université Laval

102 | Provincial Premiers and the 2015 Federal Election Campaign J.P. Lewis, University of New Brunswick

104 | All Politics is Local: The Campaign to Put Urban Issues on the Election Agenda Angelia Wagner, McGill University

PUBLIC OPINION POLLS AND VOTER BEHAVIOUR 106 | Horserace under Stress? 7 J. Scott Matthews, Memorial University 108 | Canadian Pollsters and the 2015 Canadian Election: Did They Get It Right? Christopher Adams, University of Manitoba

110 | Better Together? Poll Aggregation and Canadian Election Forecasting Gregory Eady and Clifton van der Linden, Vox Pop Labs

114 | Digital Technology and Civic Engagement: The Case of Vote Compass Yannick Dufresne and Clifton van der Linden, Vox Pop Labs

116 | Change above All Else: The Public Opinion Dynamics That Led to the Liberal Majority David Coletto and Maciej Czop, Abacus Data

118 | The Youth Vote in the 2015 Election Allison Harell and Tania Gosselin, Université du Québec à Montréal

LOOKING AHEAD 120 | A Branding (and Rebranding) Reality 8 Alex Marland, Memorial University Editors’ Remarks: Recapping The 2015 Canadian Election

Anna Esselment, Thierry For many voters, this was a referen- the campaign. Many voters articulated Giasson, Andrea Lawlor, dum on continuing an interest in Canada as a cooperative Alex Marland and Tamara A. on as prime minister; for those who agent, a promoter of multilateralism Small are authors and editors wanted change, it was also about on the world stage, an environmental within the UBC Press series Communication, Strategy and which party and leader would ensure crusader, and as a comfortable middle Politics. Books include Political change. Immediate post-election re- power. On the other hand, we might Marketing in Canada (2012) flection centred on the idea that with question whether party politics itself and Political Communication a new government, Canadian politics has changed. The election results in Canada: Meet the Press and Tweet the Rest (2014). Work is will not only have a different tone, but mark a return to the Liberals being underway on follow-up books it will be fundamentally different. Yet, Canada’s “natural governing party” about permanent campaigning a change in political administration, heading up a so-called two-plus party in Canada and about political even after a long stint in power by a system with the NDP back in third elites in Canada. single party, is not transformation so place, a similar distribution of seats to much as it is normal. Governments the early (albeit, with a smaller come and go and, in Canada, ten-year role for the Bloc Québécois, and the stretches of a single party in power are presence of the Green leader), and a hardly unprecedented. What makes Trudeau once again heading up the the 2015 federal election different is Prime Minister’s Office. the way that the structure and dy- What transpired to bring us back from namics of the campaign led to the a Conservative agenda, the precipice third-place party winning a majority of a more polarized party system, of seats. and the possibility of minority gover- Plenty happened during this historic nance? The governing Conservatives eleven-week long campaign. The out- calculated every advantage: years set of the election featured the New of permanent campaigning in the Democratic Party and its leader Tom form of the Economic Action Plan, Mulcair as a competitive and viable a balanced budget, enhanced (and governing alternative, the governing retroactive) benefits for families just Conservative Party and Harper as an before the writ drop, a pre-campaign experienced and steady hand on the branding of the Liberal leader as not economy, and the led by ready to govern, the ability to greatly with much to prove to outspend their opponents, campaign voters. There was enough of a shift rules that limited the influence of over 78 days in the articulated prior- special interests, and a healthy dose ities of , from a focus on of public opinion on their side. It was middle-class families and the Senate a strategy that couldn’t fail as long scandal, to a far more diverse set of in- as enough voters opted for the status terests that led to conversations about quo in the face of concern about the security, individual , and our re- alternatives. And yet, it did. sponsibility as global citizens. Indeed, Perhaps the most plausible explana- there was a change in voters’ mindset tion is that the “change vote” among and priorities during this campaign. citizens was palpable and the only Whereas the Conservative Party’s question was around which opposi- negative communication irreparably tion leader, Mulcair or Trudeau, that damaged Stéphane Dion and Michael vote would coalesce. They both took Ignatieff in 2008 and 2011, this time risks in changing their party’s typical Canadians appeared to push back stance on government spending: the against the negative campaign style NDP moved to the centre by promising that dominated the last few weeks of a balanced budget, while the Liberals

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 1 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Editors’ Remarks: Recapping The 2015 Canadian Election

moved to the left by pledging budget thirty years. While the 2015 election deficits. Many NDP supporters in 2011 doesn’t represent a change to a new decamped when they saw a shift in system (or even a clear entrenchment support, beginning in , prolif- of the change that many people sup- erate around the country. Low expec- posed had already happened), it repre- tations of the Liberal leader provided sents a change back to a fairly familiar the opportunity for him to exceed Parliament. A surprise outcome to say them by not stumbling throughout the least. the campaign, resurrecting the Liberal brand along the way. At the same time, the Conservatives were struck Editors’ Note (Marland and Giasson) by the negative coverage of Senator This project was initially inspired by Duffy’s trial and by external events the UK Election Analysis initiative fol- that did them no favours. A stock lowing the last British election in May market plunge or a terrorism incident 2015. Impressed by the feat that James would have fed into the Conservative Jackson and Einar Thorsen from message of sticking with economic Bournemouth University achieved stability and security. Instead, the in assembling, in 10 days, 71 short party responded coldly to the Syrian post-electoral analyses in a download- refugee crisis and then descended able open-access e-book, we decided into the pitfalls of setting conditions to challenge ourselves, as well as over on when women should be allowed to 60 other Canadian academics, jour- wear a niqab in Canada. nalists and pollsters, to do the same Polls also told a variety of stories for Canada’s 2015 federal election. explaining the twists and turns of We expected our idea to be met with the campaign. The real change was incredulity, as scholarly work usu- in what the polls were used for in this ally commands a lot of time to come election. Poll aggregators and seat about. To our surprise, most of our projection sites became more familiar initial invitations to prospective col- to Canadians who consulted them laborators were received with mas- frequently. The conversation about sive enthusiasm. After that, every strategic voting was heavily reliant on single contributor who said yes came local polling numbers and on “reading through. They each provided us with the riding” through observing which strong, thoughtful contributions— constituencies had the potential to be and everyone submitted them on leveraged for strategic considerations. time. That many did so despite travel- The general theme in the media ling, while preparing grant proposals seemed to be that the polls may not be or grading essays, dealing with family able to predict the results until quite obligations and, in a couple of cases, late in the campaign, but that they coping with some emergency situa- were playing an increasingly impor- tions, speaks to the professionalism tant role in micro-level outcomes. and commitment of the participants Thus, on the surface, it looks like Ca- in this innovative project. nadian political science can dispense From the start, UBC Press, the pub- with the conversation about party lisher of the book series Communica- system realignment—at least for the tion, Strategy and Politics, showed moment—since a decade roughly fits similar excitement with the project, with party cycles of reorganization immediately committing to the very and reestablishment over the past short 10-day production schedule and

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 2 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Editors’ Remarks: Recapping The 2015 Canadian Election

to making the compilation available events that just happened, and cap- open-access. This is extraordinary in tures details while they are still fresh academic publishing, and we are ex- in contributors’ minds. It is a potential tremely grateful to the entire editorial source of information for researchers and production team at UBC Press for who will be preparing deeper analysis. their unwavering support and dedi- It complements the important con- cation in making the project come tributions that other colleagues will to fruition, in particular the organi- assemble and publish in the coming zational wizardry of Laraine Coates, months and years, for instance after along with Emily Andrew, Melissa analyzing large electoral datasets. It Pitts and the talents of layout design- is freely accessible for use by students ers Alexa Love and Shyla Seller. Sa- and teachers in a timely manner. mara Canada is likewise an enthusias- Perhaps most importantly, it seeks to tic and exemplary partner. We thank connect Canadian citizens with a vari- Kendall Anderson, Laura Anthony, ety of non-partisan perspectives about Jane Hilderman, Jennifer Phillips, and Canadian democracy. Emily Walker at Samara for making This assortment of immediate impres- the contributions even more accessi- sions about the 2015 Canadian federal ble as a blog and for generally getting election is a clear demonstration that the word out beyond the confines of Canadian scholars and practitioners academia. can provide insightful, concise, and We felt that writing about the election useful analysis in a swift and efficient in such a timely manner was impor- manner. Ours was an insane idea that tant for a number of reasons. To our talented contributors and partners knowledge nothing like it existed or turned into a dream project. We thank had been tried before in Canada. It them all, and wish you a great read. brings together a strong collection of essays, reflections and analyses on

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 3 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Election 2015: Overview

In the end, it wasn’t close at all. But the visuals were just as important Television networks could have come as Trudeau’s message. The camera on the air at 9:30 pm Eastern time loves the Liberal leader and the on October 19 saying Canadians had party used that to great effect every voted for a Liberal government even day, beginning with an unorthodox before a single vote had been counted campaign launch at the gay pride between Quebec and Alberta. They parade in . Playing to and politely waited for a few minutes off the enthusiasm of crowds in both before doing just that and then, seem- staged and spontaneous moments, ingly within moments, called a Liberal the Trudeau campaign looked differ- majority. So much for predictions ent than the others in stills and video. Chris Waddell of a long night of tight races ending You didn’t even need sound to get it. The leader thrived on the attention Associate Professor, School of an eleven-week campaign, during Journalism and Communication most of which opinion polls showed and crowds reciprocated. The mes- Carleton University Liberals, Conservatives, and New sage was spontaneity, risk-taking, and generational change. Visually, neither Christopher Waddell joined Democrats all clustered around 30% Carleton in 2001 after ten support. Stephen Harper nor Thomas Mulcair years at CBC News producing stood a chance. Not much else they The National. He was also the In hindsight, things unfolded just as tried worked either. Was all that the parliamentary bureau chief anticipated. Polling in July consis- result of the specific dynamics of this from 1993 to 2001, and, from tently found two thirds of Canadians campaign, or perhaps it was a reflec- 1995, the executive producer, wanted change and two thirds of those news specials. Prior to joining tion of the broader societal changes the CBC, he was an economics would vote for whoever could defeat that will force re-evaluation of basic reporter in , the Ottawa the Conservative Party. The opposi- principles of political strategy and bureau chief, an associate editor, tion party that had the momentum by communication? and then the national editor, at Thanksgiving (October 12) would have . He has won the advantage. That was the Liberals. People may not like negative advertis- two National Newspaper Awards ing, but it works, is the rationale often for business reporting and CBC Whether voters really decided in offered. This time it failed miser- programs he has supervised that last week or earlier may become have won six Gemini awards ably, despite millions of dollars spent for television excellence. He is obvious by comparing the results of primarily by the Conservatives with the editor (with David Taras) of the record 3.6 million votes cast at the NDP piling on as its hopes slipped How Canadians Communicate: Thanksgiving-weekend advance polls away. Who did the ads actually reach? Media and Politics (Athabasca with the counts on October 19. What’s University Press, 2012). Certainly not younger Canadians harder to tell is whether Canadians who have no interest in cable and voted for the Liberals or against the satellite television in their turn away Conservatives. The answer to that from mainstream media. Four years could play a major role in the longev- from now more Canadians will have ity of Justin Trudeau’s government. embraced that view. Voters in much What is clear is that the Liberals of Canada also found the almost-uni- caught the public’s current desire for versal print media endorsement of the change and each day of the campaign Conservatives anachronistic border- they drove home a positive message of ing on ridiculous, damaging remain- change, one that was in contrast with ing media credibility. the style and tone of Conservative party politics. Toronto, , and If the was designed Vancouver responded, where ignoring to discourage participation by making gridlock and environmental concerns voting more difficult, it failed to do so. seemed by-products of the cost-cut- Turnout at 68.5% was the highest in ting induced by the Conservatives’ two decades, from an encouragingly balanced-budget obsession. sharp increase in First Nations peoples

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 4 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Election 2015: Overview

voting, possibly more young people Also unsuccessful was the change participating, and the return of some in leaders’ debates. The benefit to people previously turned off politics. voters of having five debates was lost What appears to have succeeded, in as online and cable audiences were part, was the Conservative and Bloc small compared to the audiences for Québécois divisive appeals through broadcast debates of past campaigns. their anti-niqab campaigns. It may If, however, the result of this mess is have contributed, along with a split an institutionalized process for future of the progressive vote between the debates that puts voters’ interests first, NDP and the Liberals in a number of it may have been almost worth the ridings, to the Bloc unexpectedly win- pain. ning 10 seats and Conservatives more In electoral terms, Justin Trudeau’s than doubling their Quebec represen- Canada on October 20 looks a lot like tation to 12. Fear of Muslims may also ’s Canada on February explain the Conservatives’ strength in 19, 1980. The Liberals dominate At- rural Canada and their crumbling in lantic Canada, Quebec, , urban urban centres. centres, and immigrant communities. For the media, a long campaign The Conservatives have sacrificed a and its revenue crisis caused by the decade of organizing and pandering, collapse of advertising forced news reduced to a narrow geographic and organizations to finally risk what they population base in had previously lacked the courage to and rural Quebec and Ontario. The try—abandoning the leaders’ national New Democrats are again very much tours. On the planes, reporters were the third party. What’s different is how outnumbered by party staff. As a Canadians got there. result, voters enjoyed a greater depth Accepted wisdom about campaign and range of news coverage from strategy and communications was mainstream sources and online up- steamrollered by a demand for change starts such as iPolitics, Buzzfeed, Vice, in 2015. There are now four years to and the Huffington Post. That may assess whether that was merely an have also increased turnout. Canadian aberration or evidence that politics is politics, though, seems no closer to now ensnared in the same maelstrom the transformational change social- that has overwhelmed the media. The media organizations now predict and enticing possibility is that the result promote with each election. is a reversal of what seemed to be un- stoppable declines in political engage- ment and Canadian democracy itself.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 5 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Election 42: What Happened?

Warren Kinsella In politics, as in life, the simplest cling to the false notion that Question explanation—while beguiling—is not Period is relevant—were enthralled by President Daisy Group always the best one. So, too, the inter- the NDP leader’s prosecutorial style minable Canadian general election of in the House. They spared no glowing Warren Kinsella was previously 2015. No single thing can account for adjective, and predicted that Mulcair a partner at the law firm of McMillan Binch and has a change this big. Consider: would win every campaign debate. also worked as a consultant, • When compared to 2011’s debacle, But he did not. Pundits rather stated journalist, and political chief the in- that Mulcair “struggled,” “fell short,” of staff. From 1990 to 1993, or “sank” in the different debates. Warren was special assistant to creased its share of the vote by the Rt. Hon. Jean Chrétien. He more than 4.1 million—an im- Another problem is that the NDP ran is the author of Fight the Right provement of 60 per cent. a low-bridge, front-runner campaign (Random House, 2012). • When also contrasted with 2011, when their front-runner status was @kinsellawarren the shed anything but certain. When an aspir- www.warrenkinsella.com nearly one million votes—a loss of ing leader is always playing it safe, almost 30% support. it gives wings to the notion that he or she is arrogant, or has a hidden • Many, many seats changed hands, agenda, or both. Paradoxically, taking principally benefitting the Liber- no risks is in itself a risk. The NDP als—they took nearly 90 from the took none. Conservatives, and almost 60 from the New Democrats. Finally, Mulcair embraced the los- ing electoral strategy of Ontario NDP Those dramatic figures notwithstand- leader and Toronto ing, Canadian voters engaged in mayoral candidate : he comparison shopping in the year lead- moved to the ideological right. On ing up to the election campaign, and deficits, on defence, on virtually any moved around in a way that we had issue, the New Democrat leader didn’t not seen before. At any given point, sound like a traditional New Demo- Messrs. Harper, Trudeau, or Mulcair crat. In his mad dash to get to the were considered the best choice for centre, he left behind his bewildered Prime Minister—and then summarily core vote, who accordingly wandered discarded. over to the more-progressive Trudeau Why? Embracing a single, pithy Liberals. explanation for it all is seductive, Second, the Conservatives faced a but it probably isn’t the best way to “Harper-endum.” In the days since approach an event as multifaceted as Election 42, it has become convention- Election 2015. A few observations can al wisdom that the entire result can be made, however, in respect to each be reduced to a single cause: namely, of the parties. that many voted to get rid of Stephen First, the NDP collapsed. One mil- Harper. lion votes: that is what As mesmerizing as this rationalization achieved in 2011, and that is what may be, it doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. Thomas Mulcair lost in 2015. He lost The numbers tell the tale: the Conser- those votes for a myriad of reasons. vative Party shed only 50,000 votes Chief among them: Mulcair did not between 2011 and 2015. In percentage win the debates. In an era where terms, they dropped by less than a few voters still watch these televised single point. That is all. contests, this should not have been fatal. But for Mulcair, it was. Ottawa- While many Canadians may have based journalists—the ones who still professed to detest the departing

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Prime Minister, his core vote does not. ti-Trudeau ad campaigns in virtually Through scandals and policy the same week in August. Just prior to controversies, the one-third of Canadi- the dropping of the writ, the Con- ans who self-identify as Conservative servatives commenced aggressively did not give up on their man. Unlike promoting their ubiquitous “just not progressive voters—who are highly ready” theme about Trudeau—and the promiscuous and flit, butterfly-like, New Democrats debuted advertising between the Liberals, the New Demo- stating that “Justin Trudeau just isn’t crats, and the Greens—the Conserva- up to the job.” tive bedrock remained with Stephen The CPC and the NDP didn’t land on Harper. the same strategy by chance: their Harper’s principal problem was that quantitative and qualitative find- he was a prime minister who had been ings had shown them it would hurt in power for a decade—and every Trudeau. And, for a time, it did. prime minister becomes unpopular The attacks produced an unexpected after a decade. Harper had held onto result, however. They lowered expec- his loyalists, but he could not acquire tations about him so low that he could new ones. In Election 2015, poll after not help but exceed them. In debates, poll registered the same result: only a in media encounters, at rallies, and on miniscule number of voters indicated the hustings, Trudeau did far better that the Conservative Party was their than anyone had been led to believe second choice. To win again, Harper he would. The campaign, which went needed to grow his vote by six or on for week after interminable week, seven more percentage points. But he assisted him, too: he literally grew as a could not, and it ended his decade. candidate within it. The Trudeau who And third, the Liberals undersold, started the campaign was not the one but overperformed. Justin Trudeau who ended it. won mostly because he adopted Jean Those, in the end, are the three most Chretien’s well-known maxim: under- plausible explanations for what hap- sell and overperform. In this regard, pened in Election 2015. The NDP tried the Liberal leader was greatly assisted to be something they weren’t; the by his opponents. Their research had Conservatives could not acquire new clearly shown them that Trudeau was friends; and the Liberals were grossly seen by the electorate as too young and underestimated. too inexperienced, and therefore a risk. The New Democrats and the Conserva- There is no single, simple reason for tives accordingly spent millions on ads the result in Election 2015. But, for our to exploit this vulnerability. purposes, three will suffice. In one extraordinary bit of political Note: An earlier version of this piece appeared symmetry, the and the Dippers in The Hill Times, October 26, 2015. came up with nearly-identical an-

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 7 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The End of the Harper Dynasty

A fourth election victory would have clear until the majority victory of the placed Stephen Harper firmly among Conservatives in 2011. Canada’s longest enduring and most The Harper Conservatives came to electorally successful leaders. But power in 2006 in the wake of the the “Harper dynasty,” as we have sponsorship scandal that had en- described it elsewhere (LeDuc et al. gulfed the Liberals. Their 2006 victory 2016), ended decisively in the election was fashioned, not by “uniting the of October 19, 2015. The Harper Con- right” as was often asserted, but by servatives were defeated largely be- positioning the newly merged party cause of their failure to manage three closer to the centre of the ideological fundamental issue areas that have spectrum and appealing to interests Lawrence LeDuc long been the key to sustained elec- outside of its more secure western toral success in Canada. Contribut- Professor Emeritus, Department of base. Promising increased spending Political Science ing to their defeat was the successful on health care and a reduction in the University of Toronto repositioning of the Trudeau Liberals GST, the Conservatives in power also as the principal alternative following Lawrence LeDuc’s recent initiated a number of targeted “pock- publications include Comparing the decline in support for the Mulcair etbook” programs. The economic Democracies 4 (with Richard G. NDP over the course of the campaign. stimulus package brought in belatedly Niemi and Pippa Norris) and This dynamic substantially reduced in response to the deepening econom- Dynasties and Interludes: Past the probability of three-way vote splits and Present in Canadian Electoral ic crisis of 2008-09 (the “Economic Politics (with Jon H. Pammett, at the constituency level that might Action Plan”) became the centerpiece Judith I. McKenzie, and André have treated the Conservatives more of the government’s economic policy. Turcotte), and “The Federal favourably. While Trudeau “won” and The Conservatives repeatedly as- Election in Canada: May 2011,” Harper “lost” are both reasonable Electoral Studies 31 (2012). In serted their competence in managing 2015, Professor LeDuc received interpretations of the 2015 election the economy and offered assurances the Mildred A. Schwartz lifetime outcome, I will place the emphasis that a Harper-led government would achievement award from the here on the latter. continue to pursue lower taxes, job Canadian Politics Section of the American Political Science Canadian electoral politics presents a creation, and (in the longer term) Association. puzzle that has long intrigued schol- balanced budgets. Combined with ars. A volatile electorate can often aggressive attacks on its opponents, @leduc42pl bring about sudden and dramatic these strategies were successful in www.chass.utoronto.ca/~leduc/ shifts in electoral fortunes. Yet suc- producing a majority in 2011. How- cessful parties and their leaders have ever, like the Chrétien/Martin dynasty frequently been able to hold on to that preceded it, the Harper dynasty power for substantial periods of time. also depended heavily on a divided These “dynasties” create the illusion opposition to remain in power. of a dominant political alignment, but The keys to maintaining a dynasty sustaining these over time has never have essentially been to be well posi- been an easy task in the Canadian tioned on the major economic issues political environment. They have of the time; to successfully manage sometimes ended in defeat or been the social, linguistic and regional divi- interrupted by short, sharp interludes. sions of the country; and (in modern It is never possible to identify a true times) to sustain the essential ele- dynasty until it has been tested in ments of the . In their multiple elections. Harper’s first such three successful campaigns, the Harp- test in 2008 was successful but incon- er Conservatives held at least some clusive. The shape and potential du- strengths in each of these areas. By rability of his dynasty did not become the time of the 2015 election however,

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 8 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The End of the Harper Dynasty

they displayed significant weaknesses magnified by our first-past-the-post in all three of these core issue areas. electoral system, do not reliably fore- Although all parties in 2015 promised cast future success. With a substan- continued support for health care, the tially dealigned electorate, Canadian Conservatives’ commitment in this parties and leaders must regularly be area was compromised by its quest for prepared to reposition themselves and balanced budgets. The party’s Quebec to navigate through problems that strategy was largely unsuccessful after arise in each of the three core issue 2006, and they likewise failed to build areas. The leader is a critical element on the 2011 breakthrough in urban in this process. Politically successful areas such as Toronto. The embrace leaders in Canada are not necessarily of divisive “wedge” issues did not charismatic figures, although they help. And, finally, the claim of greater might be. But in the longer term, they economic competence no longer are more likely to be skillful and prag- appeared entirely credible. With col- matic politicians, who understand the lapsing oil prices and a falling dollar fundamental elements of Canadian in the background, the 2015 election politics and society and can adapt campaign began with a debate over effectively to new and unforeseen whether the Canadian economy has challenges. already tipped once again into condi- tions of recession. REFERENCE It is too soon to assess the potential LeDuc, Lawrence, Jon H. Pammett, Judith I. of the Trudeau Liberals to establish a McKenzie and André Turcotte. Dynasties and Interludes: Past and Present in Canadian Electoral new dynasty, or of the Conservatives Politics. Toronto: Dundurn Press, 2nd ed., under a new leader to challenge them. forthcoming. Dramatic election victories, often

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 9 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Democratic Reform: From Campaign Promise to Policy Change

The 2015 election ended a majority reform while in opposition, yet rarely Conservative government that prac- deliver once in government. There is ticed disciplined message control one democratic reform, in particular, in its communications, centralized in which perverse incentives may kick decision-making, and a strategic ap- in—electoral reform. proach to legislation and policymak- The Liberal Party directly benefited ing. Ordinary members of parliament from the first-past-the-post (FPTP) found themselves under the control system. The 42nd parliament offers of party leaders, with little room for another example of what Peter H. independent action. Moreover, the Russell (2008: 5-6) calls a “false ma- public impression was that Prime jority” government. Liberal candi- Maxwell A. Cameron Minister Stephen Harper chose to dates won less than 40% of the vote, govern single-mindedly on behalf of Professor, Political Science yet they captured 54% of the seats. If University of British Columbia his electoral base, which represented seats were allocated in proportion to slightly under 40% of the elector- votes, the Liberals would have won Maxwell A. Cameron ate. This alienated a large number of has published widely on something like 135 seats rather than constitutionalism and voters, for whom change in govern- 184. Other major parties would have democracy. His most recent ment became the top issue in the 2015 seen increases, most notably the New book was entitled Strong election. Democratic Party (NDP) which would Constitutions (Oxford University Press, 2013). Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau have garnered between 65-70 rather promised a different style of lead- than 44 seats, and the Greens which @MaxwellACameron ership. More than the other leaders would have secured approximately 13 .ubc.ca/cameron/ (except , leader of the seats instead of just May’s. A minority ), Trudeau and his party government or coalition would have accepted and responded to com- been inevitable. plaints about the dysfunction of the The Liberals also indirectly benefited democratic system. Specifically, they from the FPTP system. The collapse promised no omnibus bills or proroga- of the NDP was partly an effect of the tion; less centralized decision-making electoral system. Voters who wanted in the PMO; more free votes; more to remove Prime Minister Harper were openness in parliament; more ac- prepared to rally behind the most countability in Question Period; a promising agent of change. In the more effective Speaker of the House; course of the campaign, as it became election of committee chairs by secret clear that the Liberal Party had the ballot; more independence for the Par- best shot at unseating the Conserva- liamentary Budget Officer; a ban on tives, a bandwagon began to form government ads; more transparency behind the Trudeau Liberals. in Supreme Court and other appoint- ments; parliamentary oversight of Having benefitted from the status CSIS, Canada’s spy agency; repeal of quo, will the Liberal Party deliver parts of Fair Elections Act; senate on the promise of electoral reform? reform; and electoral reform. A majority in parliament gives the Liberals the means to effect change, Many of the changes outlined in but paradoxically may diminish their the Liberal could be motivation. That said, immediately af- implemented unilaterally and without ter the election Trudeau re-committed difficult negotiations. But caution himself to an all-party committee to is in order on the subject of political review the electoral system. Making reform. Opposition parties tend to cross-­partisan use of committees is talk enthusiastically about democratic

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 10 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Democratic Reform: From Campaign Promise to Policy Change

consistent with the larger goal of mak- On balance, the result of the 2015 was ing parliament work more effectively. positive for Canadian democracy. It A challenge for such a committee, brought an end to the term of a Prime however, will be to reach agreement Minister who often clashed with among parties that are likely to advo- Canada’s democratic institutions and cate reforms that benefit their own conventions, and elevated to high of- party’s narrower interests. fice a new leader committed to an am- One solution would be to remove bitious agenda of democratic renewal. deliberation over the electoral system How far the Trudeau government will from the partisan arena. A citizens’ persist in this agenda is impossible to assembly, like the one created in know in advance. Given the incentives British Columbia in 2004-05, could and interests that confront any party generate a reform proposal that would as it moves from opposition to govern- not be motivated by partisan gain. A ment, there are grounds for caution as referendum on such a proposal (with well as optimism. a 50% plus one threshold to prevent a minority from thwarting the will of REFERENCE the majority) could help ensure that Russell, Peter H. Two Cheers for Minority the result of its deliberations could Government: The Evolution of Canadian Parliamentary Democracy. Toronto: Edmond not simply be ignored. In the end, of Montgomery Publications Ltd., 2008. course, any proposal would have to be approved by parliament and enjoy broad support in public opinion.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 11 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Partisans and Elections: Electoral Reform is for Parliament to Address

Over a year before Election 2015, Somewhere in the early 2000s federal former Auditor General of Canada parties stopped working together Sheila Fraser expressed concern about on these issues, and governments in the ramifications of the Fair Elections power reformed electoral rules uni- Act arguing, “Elections are the base of laterally. This is worrisome because our democracy, and if we do not have it suggests that there is no agreed or a truly independent body, it really is consistent process for changing rules an attack on our democracy and we in the future: the process is set by the should all be concerned about that” majority party. (CBC 2014). Fraser points to two core It is no stretch to imagine then that elements of any electoral process: any electoral rule changes under this Robert P. Shepherd fairness and inclusivity. In essence, if model will likely benefit the party in there was any process that ought to be Associate Professor, School of power, and the Fair Elections Act is no Public Policy and Administration rigorously protected under our rule of exception. One question of fairness in- Carleton University law, it is the electoral process. volves limiting the voting franchise it- Robert P. Shepherd’s research Bill C-23, titled the Fair Elections self. A major “problem” highlighted in focuses on the effectiveness Act came into force on June 19 2014 the Act regards voter identity. Under of evaluation functions in under controversy not only for its s. 143, the voter information card is no government, ethics, and questionable intentions, but because longer enough: voters are required to public management reforms. His most recent publications its rationale and the process by which produce two documents as proof of examine politicization of public it came about was contrary to con- identity and address. Concerns about services in Canada, take a vention. Given investigations into this requirement include that it places comparative look at federal and questionable election expenses and some groups at a disadvantage, such provincial lobbying regimes, and investigate the potential for breaking spending limits (2006), the as some Indigenous peoples living external evaluation functions “in and out scandal” whereby $1.3 mil- on reserves, or homeless people, or within the Canadian system lion was allegedly moved in and out of some elderly individuals where an of government. A recent sixty-seven federal ridings to pay for address on more than one piece of publication is “How Ottawa Reforms: Improving Democracy, national advertising (2011), and inves- identification may not be available. or Keeping up Appearances,” in tigations by auditors Likewise, students living away from G. Bruce Doern and Christopher regarding misleading robocalls (2011), home during the election may have Stoney (Eds.), How Ottawa the Conservative Party believed it was identification with their home address Spends 2015/16 (McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2015). under siege, and that the authorities rather than that of the riding in which of Elections Canada had to be re- they reside currently. In addition, www.carleton.ca/sppa viewed. approximately 600,000 persons are That a government has a right to pro- typically in the process of moving at pose solutions to problems, perceived any given time, and cannot prove their or real, is not an issue. However, address until settled. With respect to there is a longstanding convention in identity, the requirement places some Canada over electoral reform that all individuals such as trans-gendered, parties must agree on the problem and transitioning, or transvestite persons process of repair, including proposing at a disadvantage as their identifica- legislative amendments that affect tion may not represent them. As such, questions of electoral system fairness. they may feel compelled to avoid vot- For example, Parliament often would ing altogether. agree to appoint independent elec- In addition, the Ontario Court of Ap- toral commissions to work through peal upheld federal voting restrictions financing rules, and how advance in July 2015 that prevent expatriates polls will work and be scrutinized, from voting who have lived outside and to agree on electoral boundaries. Canada for more than five years.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 12 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Partisans and Elections: Electoral Reform is for Parliament to Address

­Elections Canada estimates there are by virtue of a majority vote in Parlia- over one million former residents who ment. Although not exhaustive, these fall into this category. several problems raise concerns about From an institutional perspective, the the cohesion of the current law and Act separates the responsibility for the process by which it is arrived at, managing the election from regulat- thereby leaving it open to manipula- ing elections practices. All prosecu- tion. In essence, enforcing the rule of tion of breaches under the Elections law becomes suspect. Act is now handled by the Director of The “rule of politics” over “” Public Prosecutions (DPP), an office should be a concern to all Canadians. under the direction of the Executive Fairness demands a review of the Fair Branch. The question arises as to Elections Act, and a repeal of those whether the DPP is better positioned sections that cannot be substantiated to house and prosecute matters of with evidence of wrongdoing. As Shei- electoral law than an independent la Fraser rightly concluded, “When agent of Parliament. Even intuitively, you look at the people who may not it stands to reason that the governing be able to vote, when you look at the party that can exercise influence over limitations that are being put on the executive branch agents would be able Chief Electoral Officer, when you see to make its preferences well known to the operational difficulties that are go- the DPP. ing to be created in all this, I think it’s At present, it can be argued the going to be very difficult to have a fair, electoral reform process is highly a truly fair, election” (CBC 2014). charged and politicized. Under the Act, obstacles for prosecution can be REFERENCE put in the way of independent agents CBC. “Fair Elections Act: Ex-watchdog Sheila of Parliament to do their jobs. Cabinet Fraser Slams Bill as Attack on Democracy.” April 3, 2014. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fair- can influence whether enforcement of elections-act-ex-watchdog-sheila-fraser-slams- election laws occurs. And rules can be bill-as-attack-on-democracy-1.2596652 changed to limit the voting franchise

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 13 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Data-Driven Microtargeting in the 2015 General Election

If there was any doubt left, the 2015 Conservative database contained con- general election campaign confirmed siderably more personal information the arrival of the era of database on voters, and it was employed most politics in Canada. All of the country’s effectively. Thus, as they prepared for major parties now rely on massive da- the 2015 election, the New Democratic tabases, data analytics and predictive Party and the Liberals overhauled modeling, and data-driven microtar- their databases, known as Populus geting to maximize their opportuni- and Liberalist, and invested heavily in ties for electoral success. More than training local campaign teams to col- ever before, parties are able to derive lect and employ data in voter persua- intelligence on the electorate from sion and mobilization. Both parties Steve Patten polling and data mining, and this developed in-house analytics opera- research informs party strategy, in- tions, with the Liberals spending three Associate Professor, Department of Political Science cluding the crafting of messages that times what they had invested in data University of Alberta are likely to win the support of key and data analytics in 2011. segments of the electorate. But, Cana- Steve Patten’s research and As an illustration, the Liberal Party’s teaching are driven by an dian political parties have also built 2015 central analytics team employed interest in the ways particular their own voter databases, sometimes their research to develop a predictive ideological agendas and called voter management systems. model that identified the personal approaches to politics and These databases are used to identify governance shape the quality characteristics of voters who were, of democracy in Canada. He is those individuals who are likely sup- first, highly likely to vote and, sec- co-editor (with Lois Harder) of porters or could be persuaded to be- ond, highly likely to vote Liberal. The and Its Consequences: come supporters. The process of using analytics team employed this model Constitution Making in Canada targeted communication, designed to (UBC Press, 2015) and “The to construct a six-tier ranking system ’s One-Party influence and mobilize identified vot- that guided the voter identification State” in B.M. Evans and C.W. ers is known as microtargeting. and get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts of Smith, eds., Transforming The backbone of party databases is local campaigns. In one Alberta-based Provincial Politics: The Political Economy of Canada’s Provinces the electronic voters list—containing battleground constituency the local and Territories in the Neoliberal the name, address, gender, and date of campaign team found that there was Era (University of Toronto Press, birth of each eligible voter—­provided a 60% chance that a visit or telephone 2015). by Elections Canada. The parties call to a tier-one voter would result in https://sites.google.com/a/ merge this list with their membership the campaign identifying a supporter ualberta.ca/steve-patten-dept/ and donor records, and then employ who they would want to mobilize on home a range of techniques to gather and election day. The corresponding re- input information on voters’ cultural sults for tier two and three were in the background, occupation, policy con- 35-40% range, and numbers dropped cerns, and more. The Conservatives off after that. Thus, the decision was led the pack with the development of made to focus the canvass campaign their database, the Constituent Infor- on households with tier one through mation Management System (CIMS), three voters. in 2004. In the 2006 and 2008 gen- Using an app designed for smart eral election the CIMS database was phones and tablets, Liberal canvass- effectively employed in battleground ers were provided with the addresses constituencies where centrally coor- (or telephone numbers) of the tier dinated voter contact programs were one through three voters they were to used to identify and get supporters to contact. After speaking with the voter, the polls. the canvasser would then use this app By 2011 all three major parties had to input information about this voter, roughly similar databases, but the including whether or not they indicat-

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 14 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Data-Driven Microtargeting in the 2015 General Election

ed ­support for the Liberal candidate. battleground constituencies. As the Once uploaded to the central Liberal- scope and detail of the information ist database, this information would in databases expands, and parties be available to guide future communi- become more proficient at employing cation with that voter. microtargeting in voter persuasion, The Liberalist software’s functionality highly personalized targeted cam- includes a capacity to generate letters paign messages will rival the impor- to be mailed to voters or send email or tance of the messaging of the national text blasts to specific groups of voters. campaign and party leader tours. This Most campaigns used these functions will make campaign communications to intensify their GOTV activities, but less and less transparent. In fact, data- they were also used for fundraising driven microtargeting shifts the focus and persuasion. Canvassers in some of partisan campaigns from the work local campaigns were armed with a of public persuasion and the building variety of centrally produced issue of a national consensus toward what cards, and information extracted from could be described as manipulative Liberalist determined which card they exercises in private persuasion. Con- would leave with the voter. cerns have also been raised about the fact that party databases are not gov- Although Canada’s parties are still erned by either of Canada’s two core learning how to make the most of privacy laws. The loss of transparency, their databases and voter manage- the manipulative character of targeted ment software, there is no doubt persuasion, and privacy concerns that microtargeting has made for suggest data-driven microtargeting is more efficient GTOV efforts, and not making a positive contribution to even influenced the results in some Canadian democracy.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 15 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Political Parties, Campaigns, Data, and Privacy

Paul G. Thomas Canada has just passed through in their databases with additional Professor Emeritus, Political another election contest in which contents from the census, polling, Studies the three main political parties have focus groups, retail marketing sur- University of Manitoba relied on extensive databases contain- veys, geo- and psycho-demographic Paul G. Thomas is a professor ing sensitive personal information on research purchased from commercial emeritus and a member of the the social backgrounds of supporters firms, constituency-level information Elections Canada Advisory and voters in general, including what provided by volunteers, and the trails Board. In December 2014 he completed a research report issues are important to them and left by people using social media like entitled “A Code of Ethics or whether they might be persuaded to Facebook and . Code of Conduct as a Potential vote for a particular party. Of the three main parties, the Con- Tool to Strengthen Electoral Democracy in Canada: A All parties use predictive analytics servative Party of Canada was the Discussion Paper of the based on mathematical algorithms first to exploit the advantages of data Advantages and Disadvantages and statistical methodologies to collection to identify and target their of a Code.” Previously he served discern voter intentions. On this basis supporters using the Conservative on the External Advisory Committee to the Privacy they craft messages targeted at both Information Management System Commissioner of Canada. broad and narrow segments of the vot- (CIMS). Rushing to make up for lost ing population. The analysis is used by time, both the Liberal Party (Liberalist) central campaign operations but it is and the NDP (Populous) have in recent also shared with candidates, political years refined their voter management staff, and volunteers at the constitu- systems. While all parties are reluc- ency level. The data is communicated tant to share much detail about those in digital and non-digital formats and systems, available evidence suggests many of the people who handle it are there is close to parity among them not well informed about privacy law. today. With the incentive of remain- Since 1997 Elections Canada has ing competitive, and as technology assigned voters a unique identifica- advances, all parties will continue to tion number and this eight-digit ID expand their reach into the private is shared with parties, along with lives of Canadians and privacy regu- names, addresses, and gender. In past lation in the political domain will elections parties gathered informa- become more difficult. tion on who voted and who did not Because political parties do not en- through a labour intensive process gage in commercial activity, they are of having volunteers collect so-called not subject to the Personal Informa- “bingo cards” at thousands of polling tion Protection and Electronic Docu- stations. For the convenience of the ments Act (PIPEDA). Nor are they parties and against warnings from subject to the Privacy Act that applies the CEO of Elections Canada about to the public sector at the national its privacy implications, a provision level. in the Fair Elections Act (2014) now The websites for all three parties requires Elections Canada to inform contain privacy policy statements that the parties which registered voters claim they will respect privacy prin- have cast a ballot and which have not. ciples and identify a privacy officer This change will further enable parties who will deal with voter concerns. to develop their databases and could Parties also maintain that the data- encourage them to ignore non-voters bases have become an indispensible who are not inclined to support them. tool to identify, inform, and mobilize, All parties supplement the basic voters, thereby enhancing electoral information from Elections Canada democracy.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 16 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Political Parties, Campaigns, Data, and Privacy

It is easy to understand then why should be reviewed and resolved by parties want to protect the to the independent officer of Parliament collect and use personal information, called the Privacy Commissioner, not but their shared self-interest should by the parties themselves. not trump the public interest that There was no talk during the election requires they be brought within the of amending PIPEDA to make political scope of the privacy laws. It is wrong parties, like most other institutions that citizens do not have a legal right within society, subject to its provi- to give informed consent to the col- sions. The Liberals did offer a pack- lection of certain information about age of democratic reforms and with a them, to see it, to control its distribu- solid majority as well as promises of tion, nor to modify or remove it from a more consultative governing style, parties’ databases. one might hope the new government Technological breakdowns, human would open discussions with opposi- error, and abuses to gain political ad- tion parties and Canadians about how vantage mean that there have already best to uphold their privacy rights been recorded breeches of privacy in the political field, whether this by parties and candidates and more involved an all-party code of conduct are likely to happen in the future. to follow the privacy rules or actual Complaints about privacy violations amendments to law.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 17 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Permanent Campaign Meets the 78-day Campaign, and Falls Apart

Pegging the start of an election period in the month before the election in the era of the permanent campaign was called. Since coming to office might be a fool’s errand, but the race in 2006, the Conservative govern- that ended October 19 probably started ment spent more than $693-million in earnest 354 days before voting day. on advertising, according to Public That’s when Stephen Harper an- Works reports, from 2006-07 to 2013- nounced his expanded Universal Child 14, the most recent figure available. Care Benefit and income splitting for Documents showed the government families. The announcement was the planned to spend $13.5 million on main feature of the 2015 budget in post-2015 budget promotional adver- April and the party’s central campaign tising on the family tax cuts, mostly Mark Burgess plank. And though the increased during the NHL playoffs. amount in those monthly cheques to Deputy Editor While the Conservatives benefited The Hill Times families went into effect in January from the government apparatus 2015, the first payments didn’t go out to take full advantage of the pre- Mark Burgess is the deputy until July 20, making for a retroactive editor of The Hill Times, a election period, the other parties weekly newspaper covering lump three months before election weren’t waiting either. federal politics from Ottawa. He day—“Christmas in July,” as Minister announced one of the NDP’s ma- recently authored “Go Local or unsubtly declared. jor policy planks—$15-a-day child Keep the International Desk? The Evolving Role of Local Though it followed four years of ma- care—a couple of weeks ahead of Reporting in International jority government, the 2015 election the Conservative tax cuts last year; Coverage,” Journal of Professional combined at least three new elements Justin Trudeau was out with his own Communication 2, no. 2 (2012). of the permanent campaign at the variation on the child tax benefit and @marktburgess federal level. For starters, it was the democratic reform proposal long www.hilltimes.com first fixed-date election. Doubts re- before the campaign. The tables below mained that the Conservatives would show the extent to which the parties go earlier but the parties could still were advertising, fundraising, and more or less plan with October 19, 2015 polling between elections. in mind. The second was the end of The Conservatives offered few ma- the per-vote subsidy: there would be jor policy announcements once the no taxpayer money propping up party official campaign was underway. balance sheets going into the cam- There is some irony that the party paign, and no windfall afterwards to that arguably invented the perma- refill coffers, so identifying supporters nent campaign in Canada, and ap- and soliciting donations was never peared to be using it to its advantage, more important. may have diminished that edge by The third was a move to even more calling a 78-day election campaign. brazen government advertising and There are three principal reasons for stunts to promote programs. Public that decision: they could outspend servants worked overtime on a Sunday their opponents; they would head off in May to film Mr. Poilievre glad- third-party advertising against them handing constituents and explaining by subjecting it to election spending Conservative tax breaks for a govern- limits; and they would give their op- ment YouTube video; at the end of ponents, particularly Trudeau, more June, he was in Winnipeg to watch opportunities to stumble. It didn’t the cheques roll off the printer before work out as planned. The idea of the they were sent in the mail. The climax permanent campaign is to do the hard was billions in government spending work in advance so that reinforcing announcements across the country the brand is the primary task of the

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 18 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Permanent Campaign Meets the 78-day Campaign, and Falls Apart

actual ­campaign. But the campaign Party spending on campaign-related ­activities, was so long that events to which the 2012-2014 Conservatives had to respond inter- vened throughout, and there was no Conservatives major policy plank to win back the Year Advertising Fundraising Polling narrative. 2012 $1,424,231 $64,197 $219,478 The campaign’s length also managed 2013 $1,567,575 $5,440,134 $280,805 to undo the investment in negative 2014 $2,525,243 $5,875,287 $358,422 advertising about the Liberal leader. Trudeau’s momentum built slowly, Liberals over the course of 11 weeks and five Year Advertising Fundraising Polling leaders’ debates, peaking just in time for voting day. Would Conservative 2012 $44,602 $1,690,365 $104,885 framing, particularly from its “Just 2013 $1,646,563 $2,983,612 $121,010 Not Ready” ads, have held up bet- 2014 $1,784,790 $1,782,000 $242,932 ter in a 37-day campaign? All parties will want to study the interplay of the NDP permanent campaign and the actual Year Advertising Fundraising Polling campaign in 2015, and determine new 2012 $1,924,265 $3,574,613 $118,619 schedules for framing and policy roll- 2013 $200,087 $2,829,759 $140,807 outs that don’t undermine them when it matters most. 2014 $196,352 $2,049,348 $372,254

The permanent campaign is unlikely Source: Elections Canada to go away, despite another . All parties were using Party fundraising, 2012-2014 more sophisticated tools at the door while canvassing; they won’t waste Party Year Amount Raised Number of contributors the data gleaned from those millions Conservatives 2012 $17,258,098.41 87,153 of knocks, and the opportunity to Conservatives 2013 $18,100,956.42 80,135 turn it into targeted fundraising. But Conservatives 2014 $20,113,303.63 91,736 the Liberal win also brings the prom- ise of regulatory change that would undermine the permanent campaign. Party Year Amount Raised Number of contributors The party promised to end partisan Liberals 2012 $8,166,657.76 44,466 government advertising by appointing Liberals 2013 $11,292,845.85 71,655 a commissioner to ensure neutral ads. Liberals 2014 $15,063,142.28 77,064 More importantly, they promised to limit party spending between elec- Party Year Amount Raised Number of contributors tions. If implemented, those moves would hamper future governments’ NDP 2012 $7,670,748.71 43,537 ability to use the levers of power for NDP 2013 $8,162,309.02 39,218 partisan gain and to turn a fundrais- NDP 2014 $9,527,136.75 46,355 ing advantage into a real advantage between elections. Source: Elections Canada

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 19 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Long March to the Ballot Box 2015: Voter Fatigue or Enhanced Engagement?

When the writs were issued on August Some argued that, given the advent of 4 for a vote on October 19, Canadians the “permanent campaign,” in which were subjected to the longest election political parties remain on campaign campaign in modern history. This was footing while in government, an a clear departure from recent practice, elongated formal campaign would not but, perhaps, not surprising in this era make much difference. In fact, how- of continual campaigning. ever, there are important differences. In its 1991 report, “Reforming Electoral First, the formal campaign is tightly Democracy,” the Royal Commission regulated, with limits on party and on Electoral Reform and Party Financ- candidate spending, and on advertis- ing (Lortie Commission) observed ing by third parties (anyone other than Fred Fletcher that “one of the strongest messages parties and candidates who intend to Professor Emeritus, we received at our hearings was that spend more than $10,000 on adver- Communication Studies and Canadian election campaigns are too tising). It seems clear that the Con- Political Science servative Party wished in particular York University long” (Canada, 1991: 77). Intervenors at public hearings cited voter fatigue, to limit third-party advertising, since Fred Fletcher served as the stress on volunteers, and the financial union-funded advertising had been research coordinator, media effective in defeating their provincial and elections, for the Royal costs of campaigning and election Commission on Electoral administration. Citing advances in counterparts in the two most recent Reform and Party Financing and communication and transportation, Ontario elections. In fact, the cam- has published widely on media the Commission recommended a paign focused primarily on the parties and elections and the social and and their leaders; partisan advertising political effects of the internet campaign period of 40 to 47 days, not- in Canada. Recent publications ing that a permanent voters list would from third parties was quite limited. include “Journalism, Corporate end time-consuming door-to-door Second, the long campaign appears to Media and Democracy in enumeration (voter registration). The have registered differently with voters the Digital Era” in Kirsten Kozolanka, ed., Publicity and subsequent amendment to the Canada than non-election political marketing. the Canadian State (University Elections Act in 1997 set the minimum Because an actual election gives voters of Toronto Press, 2014) and, at 36 days with no maximum. the opportunity to make a choice at with Mary Lynn Young, the ballot box, many appear to have “Political Communication, The 1997 amendment did not alter Globalization and Changing party and candidate spending limits, tuned into the campaign discourse Media Environments,” in H. without regard to campaign length, an when they were ready and tuned out Semetko & M. Scammell, eds., obvious disincentive for lengthening when they had made up their minds. The Sage Handbook of Political Even though many voters appeared to Communication (Sage, 2012). the campaign. In rejecting a maxi- mum length, Parliament opened the experience campaign ennui, turn- @fredjfletcher door for Bill C-23 (2014) that increased out increased from 61.1% in 2011 to the party- and candidate-spending 68.5%, the highest result since 1993. limit by establishing a daily rate and The highly competitive campaign, adding that amount for each day of with the three major parties closely the campaign beyond the 36-day mini- bunched in most voter preference mum. Since the 11-week campaign polls, was undoubtedly a factor, along was more than twice the minimum with the strongly held desire for a length, the party and candidate change of government, cited by 28% spending limits more than doubled, as their main reason for voting in the to around $50 million for a registered Forum Research post-election poll. party running candidates in all 338 On the other hand, perhaps many of ridings. It seems likely that the Con- those more than three million citizens servatives expected the long campaign who voted in the advance polls (up to be to their advantage. 71% from 2011) were not only register- ing a choice but also saying “enough

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 20 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Long March to the Ballot Box 2015: Voter Fatigue or Enhanced Engagement?

already!” The Forum Research post- The long campaign of 2015 did cost election poll found that by the middle considerably more than recent cam- of the campaign, 58% of voters had paigns, but, arguably, the benefit to already made their vote decision. Nev- voters was worth the price. In most ertheless, the early election call clearly constituencies, the ground campaign- facilitated an unprecedented range of ing, with sign distribution, robocalls, get-out-the-vote campaigns in many and door knocking did not start until communities, especially First Nations, a few weeks before the vote and volun- and provided more time for strategic teer involvement seems to have been voting campaigns to make their case unaffected. News coverage included against the Harper government. It a wider range of issues and pollsters seems clear that a wider range of is- offered more than party preference sues than usual in shorter campaigns analysis. In the end, a majority of became part of the general electoral voters tuned in and, in many cases, discourse and that voters were offered turned out. more opportunities to cast an in- formed vote. The fact that most voters REFERENCE appear to have voted on the basis of Canada. “Reforming Electoral Democracy.” “vision and values rather than specific Volume 2 of the Royal Commission on Electoral policies” indicates that many distilled Reform and Party Financing (Lortie Commission). particular issues into larger visions. Ottawa: Supply and Services Canada, 1991.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 21 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The 2015 Election and the Canadian Party System

Richard Johnston When Marty McFly and Doc Brown strong: notwithstanding the debacle Professor, Political Science, returned to the future two days after of 2011, the Liberals emerged from and Canada Research Chair in the 2015 election, they must have been that campaign with a clear edge over Public Opinion, Elections, and struck by how little had changed. the NDP in party identification. Ac- Representation The prime minister designate is a cording to the post-election wave of The University of British Columbia Quebecker with an English-Canadian 2011 Canadian Election Study, about manner. His Liberal party has broad one respondent in four identified with Richard Johnston has taught at UBC, Toronto, Caltech, representation from all provinces and the Liberal Party; for the New Demo- Harvard (Mackenzie King territories. The prospective cabinet crats, the share was one in six. On the chair), and the University of promises to be a strong cast. More- eve of the 2011 election, in spite of the Pennsylvania. He has written over, Justin Trudeau evokes memories polls and in spite of the shift in CES five books and co-edited four, and has written more than 80 that go further back, to Sir Wilfrid respondents’ own intentions, more articles and book chapters. He Laurier, famous for his “sunny ways” respondents expected a Liberal vic- headed the Canadian Election and genius at compromise. The shade than an NDP one (although few Study (1988-92-93) and the of André Siegfried, the French po- expected either party to win). (US) National Annenberg Election Survey (2000-8). His litical writer, is probably looking on Some of the resilience may be orga- recent publications include approvingly. nizational. If some Liberal moves “Alignment, Realignment, and Of course, not all is exactly as before. had the whiff of desperation, many Dealignment in Canada: The View From Above,” Canadian Although the New Democratic Party seemed smart and forward-looking. Journal of Political Science 46, no. experienced a serious setback, it is For the leadership race in 2012-13, for 2 (June 2013). still stronger than in most earlier instance, the bar for de facto participa- decades, especially in Quebec. Al- tion was set very low; it sufficed to de- @rgcjohnston3 though Quebec was critical to the clare oneself a “supporter.” The gam- Liberals winning an outright major- ble was that the mere fact of making ity, it occurred so in ways that would the declaration would induce further puzzle a time-traveller from the 1950s. psychological processes of identifi- It was true then and remained true cation and motivated cognition. The until 1993 that Quebec was the pivot platform, including the elements for government. That province’s seats revealed during the campaign, always came en bloc and went only to one seemed thought through. Cumulative- or the other of the historically major ly, the platform addressed what was parties, usually the Liberals. For the arguably the party’s abiding weakness: Liberals, winning that bloc was the its relative . If this seems necessary and sufficient condition for paradoxical, consider the empirics of winning in the country as a whole. party positioning in other Westmin- Failure to win the bloc would hand the ster democracies and in the United election to the Conservatives. From States. Political parties may feel the 1993 to 2011, however, Quebec effec- pull of the centre, but major parties do tively opted out of the government- not start there. Rather, competition formation game. In 2011 and 2015 is between flanking parties; centrists Quebec rejoined the federalist enter- get squeezed. Historically, the ability prise, but to back the wrong horse in of the Liberals to avoid such a squeeze 2011 and to back the right one in 2015 reflected their strength in Quebec, at through fragmentation of the vote, least as the most credible federalist not its consolidation. party. After 2011, even that seemed In sum, the Liberals continue to be to be forfeit. In 2015, however, the one of the world’s most resilient politi- Liberals outflanked the NDP in at least cal parties, and some of this may be three ways: progressivity in ­personal self-fulfilling. The “brand” remains

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 22 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The 2015 Election and the Canadian Party System

income tax, in deficit­ spending, and in weakened the link. Meanwhile, the defence in ditching the F-35. lack of the union link may enhance The Liberals may benefit from a Liberals’ appeal to young voters. trend in the Westminster world. Even Finally, history suggests that when the though the progressive alternative is electorate polarizes, the Liberals are usually a party of organized labour, the beneficiary. In 1988, Liberal leader such parties have shed much of the commanded the high associated policy baggage; labour par- ground of opposition to the Canada- ties look a lot like the Liberal Party of US Agreement. As voters Canada. This reflects the weakening resolved to banish the Progressive of the union movement and emptying Conservatives in 1993, they flocked to out of traditional manual occupations. the Liberals even before the campaign In Canada, prohibition on financial began. In 2011, defeat of the Conserva- contributions from unions (as well tives was not an overarching objective. from corporations) may have further In 2015 it was.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 23 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE La campagne du Bloc québécois. Quand on n’a rien à perdre...

Quand on a rien perdre, on dit, à du déclenchement de l’élection le 2 l’instar du slogan officiel du Bloc août, le parti retombe dans les in- québécois pour l’élection de 2015, que tentions de votes et sa campagne l’«On a tout à gagner». Et, stratégique- n’attire pas l’attention des médias. Le ment, le parti indépendantiste a véri- parti maintient néanmoins le cap sur tablement tout tenté pour assurer sa l’objectif de reconquête de l’électorat survie. Cantonné à la quatrième place du NPD. Toute la communication des intentions de vote dans plusieurs électorale y sera largement consacrée : sondages préélectoraux et délaissé par des (trop) nombreux slogans (Signe les médias au cours des premières se- de fierté; Qui prend pays, prend parti; Le maines de campagne, le Bloc se devait Québec revient en force), aux choix des Thierry Giasson de secouer en profondeur l’échiquier enjeux mis en avant, aux déclarations politique fédéral québécois afin de du chef et aux publicités électorales. Professeur agrégé, Département de science politique retrouver une visibilité médiatique, et Le Bloc n’a qu’une seule cible pendant Université Laval ainsi un semblant d’existence, auprès 78 jours : Tom Mulcair et les députés des électeurs. Et c’est le 18 septembre, néo-démocrates du Québec, associés à Thierry Giasson est directeur du Groupe de recherche en par le biais d’une publicité choc, que le un « Bloc canadien ». communication politique (GRCP). Bloc réussira son coup. Lentement, mais sûrement, la cam- Il est également président de la Société québécoise de science Il faut toutefois remonter au 10 pagne bloquiste gagne en force au politique. Ses recherches juin 2015 pour assister au début de retour du congé de la Fête du travail. portent sur la communication l’opération sauvetage organisée par C’est toutefois le 18 septembre que politique, le web politique les stratèges bloquistes. Leur premier le Bloc porte le coup marquant de sa et l’incidence du marketing politique sur les campagnes coup fumant consiste alors à convain- campagne. Le parti lance sa première électorales, la participation cre leur chef, , de céder publicité électorale qui attaque de politique et l’engagement citoyen. sa place à l’ancien leader de la forma- plein fouet les positions du NPD sur Thierry Giasson co-dirige avec tion, . Ce retour de les enjeux du pipeline Énergie-Est et Alex Marland la collection Communication, Strategy and Duceppe à la tête de l’organisation vise la décision des tribunaux fédéraux re- Politics chez UBC Press. à stimuler les appuis du parti dans connaissant le droit des Canadiennes l’opinion publique et à réimposer le de porter un niqab lors de cérémonies @thierrygiasson Bloc dans l’espace médiatique comme de citoyenneté. Dans les deux cas, les www.pol.ulaval.ca/?pid=1633 force politique réelle à l’approche de la sondages révèlent que la grande ma- www.grcp.ulaval.ca/thierry-giasson campagne fédérale. jorité des électeurs québécois sont en Cette première étape porte ses fruits, porte-à-faux avec les positions du NPD puisqu’un «effet Duceppe» se fera sen- sur ces questions. Par cet usage stra- tir dès les premiers jours de l’annonce tégique, et abondamment critiqué, de de la passation du pouvoir alors que le la politique de brèche (wedge politics), Bloc est crédité de la deuxième place le Bloc réussit à semer le doute dans dans les sondages, derrière le NPD, l’esprit des Québécois face à leur appui toujours en tête au Québec. Le NPD et de 2011 aux NPD. Plusieurs commen- le Bloc se font la lutte pour l’électorat cent alors à considérer de nouvelles québécois francophone nationaliste et options. Libéraux et bloquistes devi- progressiste. Dès lors, l’objectif de la ennent ainsi des alternatives viables campagne bloquiste est fixé : recon- pour les électeurs progressistes, alors quérir les nationalistes et les indépen- que certains nationalistes plus conser- dantistes progressistes québécois qui vateurs hésitent maintenant entre les ont voté NPD en 2011. bloquistes et les conservateurs. Néanmoins, l’effet Duceppe s’estompe Malgré ce coup d’éclat qui impose pendant les vacances estivales. Lors la question du niqab dans l’ordre du jour médiatique, et de bonnes

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 24 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE La campagne du Bloc québécois. Quand on a rien à perdre...

performances de Duceppe lors des alors que Mario Beaulieu, le sacrifié, débats télévisés francophones en fin remporte son élection. de campagne, le Bloc est cantonné à Lors de l’annonce de sa démission la troisième place dans les sondages comme chef du parti le 22 octobre, d’opinion. L’opération «niqab», qui Duceppe dira que l’élection des dix contribue certes à la diminution des députés bloquistes assure l’avenir de intentions de vote du NPD, favorise la formation pour les quatre pro- plutôt les libéraux à l’échelle de la chaines années. Pourtant, l’échec est province et les conservateurs dans la manifeste. Malgré une campagne grande région de Québec. audacieuse sur le plan stratégique Le 19 octobre, le Bloc remporte qui a permis au parti d’atteindre ses finalement 19,3% des voix, sa pire objectifs de faire dérailler la cam- performance électorale, et fait élire pagne du NPD et de conquérir l’ordre 10 députés, dont sept dans des circon- du jour électoral, la majorité des scriptions majoritairement franco- Québécois n’appuie pas le Bloc. Le phones de la région de Montréal. sauveur, la politique de brèche et les Plusieurs de ces gains, comme dans slogans patriotiques de 2015 n’ont pas Mirabel, Rivière-du-Nord ou Pierre- permis de convaincre les électeurs du Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchère, Québec qu’ils avaient tout à gagner en sont très serrés et s’expliquent par la votant pour lui. Au cours des quatre division du vote entre le NPD et les prochaines années, ce sont plutôt libéraux. Par ces courtes victoires, le les stratèges bloquistes qui devront Bloc sauve les meubles… et la face. relever d’importants défis afin as- Comble de l’ironie, Gilles Duceppe, le surer réellement l’avenir du parti qui sauveur, subit la défaite dans sa pro- semble, aujourd’hui, plus qu’incertain. pre circonscription aux mains du NPD

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 25 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Conservative Campaign

The Conservative campaign never re- And it was affordable because Paul ally moved the dial. The party started Martin’s government had run a sur- and ended at about 30% in the polls. It plus that could now be spent without has now been pushed back to its core going into deficit (that came later with support in western Canada and rural the Great Recession of 2008). Ontario, roughly where it was after the Experience suggests that a conserva- 2004 election. tive party cannot successfully run only With the benefit of hindsight, one can on a theme of balanced budgets and see that the basic conception of the fiscal responsibility, except perhaps Conservative campaign was funda- when government spending has got- mentally flawed. Making economic ten completely out of hand. In normal Tom Flanagan management the central theme was times—and this was a very normal Professor Emeritus, Political okay, but beyond that the campaign time—a conservative party has to Science and Distinguished Fellow, was too defensive, almost paranoid. show how its free-market, fiscally re- School of Public Policy “Protect our economy”—what kind of sponsible policies will make ordinary University of Calgary slogan is that? Fear of what opponents people better off—and that means bet- Tom Flanagan is a retired might do in government is important, ter off in the next four years, not in the professor of political science but it can’t be the only motivation. A past. The Conservative party of 2015 and a former campaign manager campaign has to offer positive benefits seemed to have forgotten the lesson of for conservative parties. He is the author of Winning Power: to voters to secure their support. 2006. Canadian Campaigning in the Indeed, the Conservatives did offer Another problem was that the Con- 21st Century (McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2014) and benefits, such as enrichment of the servative campaign was so centred “Resource Revenue Sharing, Universal Child Care Benefit, income around the theme of Harper’s leader- Property Rights, and Economic splitting for parents, and raising of the ship. This might have worked before Incentives,” Frontier Centre for TFSA contribution limit; but these had the Duffy scandal, when Harper was Public Policy (2015). already been legislated in the spring widely respected if not liked, but the www.tom-flanagan.ca budget, so there was little new to be Duffy revelations did damage to his said during the campaign. Even worse, personal brand that had not been making the offer so far in advance repaired by the beginning of the cam- allowed the Liberals to craft their own paign. The leadership trope was such counter-offer—richer benefits for an obvious failure that by the end of most parents, a tax cut for everyone the campaign, the party was reduced making more than $45,000 in taxable to running ads saying that Mr. Harper income, and higher taxes only for the was “not perfect” and the election was “one percent” reporting more than “not about” him—quite the contrary $200,000 in taxable income. It was to what the campaign was supposed rather like the 2000 election, when to be. leader Stockwell Against this backdrop, dropping the Day revealed his flat tax proposal ear- writ early for an eleven-week cam- ly, allowing Jean Chrétien to respond paign seems to have been another with his own package of tax cuts. mistake, though it did cut off hostile Contrast this to the 2005-06 cam- third-party advertising. It was sup- paign, which first brought the Con- posed to allow the Conservatives to servatives to power. Then they offered capitalize on their financial advan- a GST cut for everyone and the Child tage, but money cannot substitute Care Allowance for parents. The de- for message. If you have nothing tails were held back, so that no other compelling to say, saying it over and party could outbid the Conservatives. over doesn’t help. The long writ period

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 26 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Conservative Campaign

­allowed the campaign to be disrupted was strategic voting on a grand scale by external factors such as the Duffy by voters who wanted Harper gone trial, the refugee crisis, and the niqab and who did not particularly care decision from the Federal Court of whether the NDP or Liberals finished Appeal. Since the Conservatives the job. didn’t have a persuasive message of All in all, it was a big disappoint- their own, their campaign was easily ment for the Conservatives but not a thrown off track by such develop- catastrophe. Their organization and ments. core vote remains intact, and if they The niqab issue, suddenly propelled find the right leader to replace Harper, to the fore by an unexpected decision they can be competitive again in the from the bench by the Federal Court next election. Of course, that’s a big of Appeal, gave the Conservatives an “if.” Ask the Liberals about the differ- opportunity for wedge politics against ence between being led by Michael the NDP, which they exploited to win Ignatieff or Justin Trudeau. twelve seats in Quebec. But it back- fired in the larger Canadian context. [Note: An earlier version appeared in The The anti-Harper “change” vote was Globe and Mail on October 20, 2015 at http:// like a see-saw; and when the NDP www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/ went down, the Liberals went up. It conservatives-had-the-money-but-forgot-the- message/article26883457/

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 27 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Greens by the Numbers

The Greens went into the campaign niques. Excluded from three of the with the optimistic goal of amplifying five leaders’ debates, and not routinely the party’s voice in Ottawa—not only covered alongside other parties by reclaiming seats for leader Elizabeth the mainstream media, May and the May and deputy leader , Greens set out to capture national who was originally elected as an NDP attention by staging virtual debates MP, but adding to the tiny caucus. At via social media. As the other party the very least, the Greens hoped for leaders sparred in Calgary during the enough seats to give them the balance second major encounter of the cam- of power in a minority Parliament; at paign, May weighed in from Victoria, best, enough to push them into official tweeting answers and challenging her Susan Harada party status of 12 seats. However, they opponents’ facts in a series of short fell well short of their goals. The party video clips recorded on the spot. Her Associate Professor and Associate Director, School of Journalism was cut back down to one seat—May’s some two dozen debate video tweets and Communication, and Head, Vancouver Island riding of Saan- were retweeted nearly 12,000 times. Journalism Program ich-Gulf Island—and finished with May used the same Twitter tactic Carleton University its lowest national vote share in more when she was excluded from the sub- Susan Harada, a former CBC than a decade. In the new majority sequent foreign policy debate in To- parliamentary correspondent, Parliament, they wield no power and ronto. Her use of Twitter, as well as the has written about the Green have limited influence. meme of her “super sassy peace sign,” Party of Canada since its “breakthrough” 2004 campaign The failure to add another Green MP, which she flashed as the French-lan- for The Canadian Federal Election, especially on Vancouver Island, was a guage debate that she participated in a series edited by Jon Pammett blow, given the key elements they had got underway, garnered her additional and Christopher Dornan social media traffic. (Dundurn) and will also write aligned there: a high-profile leader about the 2015 Green campaign. with long coattails; a team with star Wielded as an attention-getting tool, She profiled leader Elizabeth candidates such as prominent local the Greens’ social media strategy May for The Walrus (2012). journalist Jo-Ann Roberts, and evi- clearly worked. The larger issue is one @SHarada3 dence of popular support in a handful of efficacy. At no time was there doubt of ridings, including Roberts’ Victoria, that May would reclaim her own seat, where the party had come close to so a more pertinent measurement victory in the 2012 federal by-election. of success would be connected to They had money in the bank and a fo- the strategy’s impact on the party’s cused strategy in place. May’s national popular vote, especially in its targeted leadership tour was a roadmap of the ridings. Rachel Gibson and Ian McAl- ridings holding the party’s hopes; lister are among the scholars whose in the campaign’s 78 days she only work suggests social media campaign- ventured out of British Columbia nine ing helps smaller parties become more times—and two of the trips beyond competitive; however, it is difficult to the province included leadership de- accurately gauge the potential halo ef- bates, not just local campaign-boost- fect of May’s digital personality given ing elsewhere. Her main message was the other factors at play—including that democracy needed rescuing and the push for strategic voting—during that the Greens could precipitate that campaign 2015. process. Much easier to measure is the success From the start, the party sought to of the party’s fundraising campaign. insert itself and its leader into the Contrary to expectations, losing the national campaign discourse through per vote subsidy did not take the the adoption of social-media messag- Greens out of the game financially. By ing and targeted fundraising tech- the time that they received their last

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 28 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Greens by the Numbers

subsidy instalment of ­approximately level. Canadians who may have been $72,000 in early 2015, they had al- inclined to vote Green under different ready fundraised more than $3 million circumstances, as they have provin- dollars in 2014 alone. Between the cially (in BC, New Brunswick, and PEI) beginning of 2015 and election day, and municipally (in Vancouver), put the number rose to $4 million. The their votes elsewhere. party fine-tuned its fundraising tech- According to Fair Vote Canada, under niques to target a growing number a proportional system the Greens of supporters with appeals for small would have netted eleven seats on amounts tied to specific goals. The October 19. Given past patterns, the money allowed them to mount a more party’s supporters likely need to professional campaign and to join the depend on electoral system reform national conversation with their own if they hope to elect more than one political messaging. Green MP in the future. If the Liberals But at the end of the day, the Greens’ follow through on their promise that final numbers told the tale of a 2015 will be the last first-past-the-post- successful fundraising push and a election, and if the Greens spend the carefully planned campaign strategy next few years cultivating their small that did not translate into seat gains, pockets of local support across the in no small part due to the larger country, there is potential for them to political forces at work across the ensure their federal election results in country. The party could not capitalize 2019 and beyond more closely match on its pre-existing support at the local their national aspirations.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 29 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Liberals’ Campaign for the Ages

Even before the polls closed it was history and the winding down of the clear the Liberal Party had staged per-vote financial subsidy. one of the most remarkable come- The Liberals’ rebuilding exercise was backs in Canadian history. From their accompanied by a gradual recovery third- place standing on August 2, the in the polls. The party occupied first Liberals roared back to take over 39% place for much of 2014 and early 2015. of the popular vote and 184 seats, win- Still, there were ongoing concerns ning a decisive majority government. about the leader’s lack of experience And with support in every region of (fuelled by Conservative ads claim- the country, including with Quebec’s ing Trudeau was “just not ready”) and francophone voters and in Alberta, the party’s lack of policy substance. Brooke Jeffrey the party could legitimately claim to Trudeau’s controversial decision to be truly national. Professor, Political Science, support the Conservatives’ anti-terror and Director, Masters in Public The magnitude of the party’s ac- bill (C-51) added to doubts and contrib- Administration and Public Policy complishment is apparent when uted to the NDP’s emergence as the Program contrasted with the situation in May frontrunner by May 2015, when the Concordia University 2011. The Liberals were reeling from Liberals fell once more to third place. Brooke Jeffrey has published an unprecedented third-place fin- Fears within the party resurfaced that widely on political strategy and ish in that election, reduced to 19% the NDP would become the preferred policy development within the Liberal Party. Her recent works of the popular vote and 34 seats. The alternative for “Anybody-but-Harper” on the Liberals include Divided party’s vaunted electoral machine was voters, some 65% of the electorate. Loyalties: The Liberal Party of in ruins. The party itself was close to Indeed, at the start of the campaign, Canada 1984-2008 (University bankruptcy and looking for its fourth talk centred on the possibility of a of Toronto Press, 2010) and “The Disappearing Liberals: permanent leader in less than eight NDP federal government. Caught in the Crossfire,” in years. Conventional wisdom predicted Yet barely four weeks later, the tables Pammett and Dornan, eds., the Liberals’ imminent demise or a were turned, and by October 2 the The Canadian General Election merger with the NDP, and the death of of 2011 (Dundurn, 2011). She is Liberals were ahead to stay. Their also the author of Dismantling modern . recovery was undoubtedly helped by Canada: Stephen Harper’s New Part of their comeback is due to many the Conservatives’ decision to launch Conservative Agenda (McGill Queen’s University Press, 2015). concrete steps taken long before the an 11-week official campaign which 2015 campaign began. First, the deci- allowed the Liberals to define them- sion of the party executive to defer selves, and also by NDP leader Thomas the leadership race until spring 2013 Mulcair’s underwhelming perfor- proved crucial. Then, under newly- mance in the debates, to say noth- elected leader Justin Trudeau, the ing of the unexpected NDP platform Liberals undertook a significant re- which combined a commitment to organization, rebuilding at the riding balanced budgets with a wish list of level, introducing state-of-the-art future social programs that would be technology, and dramatically improv- delayed due to lack of revenue. But ing their fundraising capacity. In 2014 with Trudeau’s August 25 declaration alone the party’s revenue increased by that his party would run small deficits 40% over 2013, bringing in a total of to finance infrastructure investment, $15.8 million, or double the amount the Liberals carved out a niche on the raised by the NDP, despite the latter’s left to distinguish themselves from the Official Opposition status. The impor- NDP. That move appears to have pro- tance of this can hardly be overem- duced significant gains in public opin- phasized in light of the Conservatives’ ion, breaking them out of a lengthy decision to conduct one of the longest three-way tie. The Liberals’ momen- and most expensive campaigns in tum then took flight. Announcements

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 30 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Liberals’ Campaign for the Ages

cancelling the F-35 defence contract confident and comfortable in the and a sympathetic open letter to pub- leaders’ debates and on the hustings lic servants caught the NDP off guard. and quickly proved to be a major as- Meanwhile Trudeau’s debate perfor- set to the party. Similarly, the Liberal mances and impassioned speeches at ad campaign proved highly effective huge public rallies, where he focused while the platform was widely consid- on a positive message and an over- ered to be progressive but practical, arching liberal vision for the country, again differentiating the Liberals from sent the Liberals’ stock soaring. The the NDP. Finally, the Liberals recruited party was also aided by the Conserva- a broad range of strong candidates, tives’ decision to launch a campaign of providing Trudeau with bench fear over the niqab, which kneecapped strength to convince voters the party the NDP in Quebec and confirmed was ready to govern. the Liberals as the party of choice to In the end the Liberal comeback defeat the Harper government. resulted from their long-term rebuild- The various strategic errors of the ing plan and an exceptionally well-­ other opposition parties only helped executed campaign strategy. Their to enhance the already positive impact margin of victory in terms of seats made by the Liberals’ own efforts. In- also demonstrates that their message deed, the Liberal campaign was widely resonated with voters, confirming judged to be superior on every front. that the era of modern liberalism is far Justin Trudeau appeared increasingly from over.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 31 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The NDP’s “Government in Waiting” Strategy

The federal New Democratic Party in a NDP government. Fourth, the entered the 2015 election in a position NDP choose to emphasize a long-term that was unprecedented in its 80-year policy vision to portray itself as a electoral history. For the first time moderate and reasonable party that ever, the party began a campaign as had plans to kickstart the economy the Official Opposition, with a solid and protect the interests of Canada’s base of seats in Quebec and in first middle class. It promised to balance place in the majority of public domain the budget in every year of its man- polls. Given the legitimacy of the idea date and phase-in its social policy en- that the NDP represented the “gov- gagements, such as a national $15-a- ernment in waiting,” the overarching day childcare plan, over several years. David McGrane strategic consideration of the party It also touted its plan for promoting was to present the NDP as a governing economic growth that included a Associate Professor, Political Studies party and to present leader Tom Mul- reduction in small-business taxes. St. Thomas More College, cair as the next prime minister. All However, the NDP was forced to adjust University of Saskatchewan other possible strategic priorities—at- its strategy during the later part of David McGrane is the past tacking Stephen Harper, attacking the campaign in reaction to the rise president of the Prairie Political Justin Trudeau, representing social of the Liberals in public polling (and Science Association and is the democratic values, being seen to be one can only assume within internal principal investigator of the accommodating of Québécois nation- Canadian polling as well). The first, and most Study. He is currently working alism—became subordinated to this evident, strategic change was to attack on a book examining the overarching campaign objective. Trudeau and the Liberal Party on cuts activity of the federal NDP A closer look at the press releases that they would enact, the deficits that from 2000 to 2015. He is the author of Remaining Loyal: and television advertising of the NDP they would run, and the Bill C-51 Anti- Social Democracy in Quebec and during the first part of the campaign Terrorism Act. The second and related Saskatchewan (McGill-Queen’s reveals four primary elements of strategic alteration was to shift the University Press, 2014). their government-in-waiting strategy. emphasis to issues that showed the @ProfMcGrane First, early NDP television advertising NDP to be more “progressive” than the www.davidmcgrane.ca focused on an initial campaign of pre- Liberals. In the party’s press releases senting Mulcair’s family background and commercials, issues of health and his experience as a cabinet min- care, the environment, and the Trans- ister in the Quebec provincial gov- Pacific Partnership (TPP) replaced the ernment. There was a clear attempt emphasis on fiscal responsibility and to positively brand Mulcair as an the economy. The NDP also began to experienced leader who personified make a direct strategic-voting pitch to middle-class values. Second, another voters by pointing out that it needed series of televised ads opted for hard- to win only 35 new seats to beat the edged attacks on corruption within Conservatives whereas the Liber- the Harper government and Canada’s als had to win over 100 new seats to poor economic performance since ensure that Stephen Harper would the Conservatives took power. NDP no longer be Prime Minister. These communications from early in the strategic shifts were accompanied by campaign therefore barely mentioned continued references to the experi- Trudeau and the Liberal Party. enced leadership of Mulcair, and of Third, while the initial phase of NDP highlighting the quality of the NDP’s television ads focused on Mulcair, team of candidates. the party’s press releases highlighted Judging the success or failure of this various members of the NDP team strategy depends on whether some- who would form an eventual cabinet one uses a long-term or short-term

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 32 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The NDP’s “Government in Waiting” Strategy

perspective. Winning 20% of the 2015 the impression that voting NDP is popular vote ranks among the high- somehow a wasted vote because the est scores in the CCF-NDP’s electoral Liberals can actually deliver on their history. Its popular vote and seat total promises as the governing party and in Quebec is much higher than any because voting Liberal prevents the of the federal elections that took Conservatives from getting back into place before 2011. However, taking a power. Barring a major change in the short-term view, if public domain polls electoral system—something that the during the summer were accurate, the Trudeau Liberals have pledged—the situation is less rosy. The NDP went primary consequence of the NDP’s from a contender to form government poor electoral performance for Ca- in the middle of August to reverting nadian democracy may be a renewed back to its traditional position as the dominance of the national political third party in the House of Commons discourse by the Liberals and the Con- on election night. servatives. Under the existing elec- As such, the 2015 federal election toral framework, the NDP will struggle returned Canada to a two-and-half to be heard and will have to constantly party system similar to what prevailed fight to be seen as relevant in the eyes for most of the second half of the 20th of the media and the public. century. The party will have to combat

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 33 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Leading the Party Troops on a Long Campaign: How the Party Leaders Managed the Message

To lead is to communicate; this so reporters and voters focused on behaviour is fundamental to success- how the Conservatives were respond- ful political campaigns. The leader’s ing to several attention-grabbing messaging guides each team of media stories, such as poor economic candidates, ensuring that core ideas numbers and the Syrian refugee crisis. are repeated faithfully in thousands By the campaign’s midway point in of local conversations with voters September the Tories were losing and community media. Party leaders’ ground in opinion-poll standings and communications serve also to help insiders were complaining that they focus and co-ordinate 338 campaign were off message. A campaign reset teams and the volunteers supplying was undertaken: Harper began talking Cristine de Clercy critical resources on the ground. For more actively about the other leaders’ voters and the media, leaders’ messag- deficiencies, and emphasizing his con- Associate Professor, Department of Political Science es usually are the key source of party troversial position that women should Western University information. not be allowed to wear a face veil at citizenship ceremonies. Harper ended Cristine de Clercy is an associate The unusual length of the 2015 federal professor and co-director of election challenged party leader mes- the campaign by focusing on public the Leadership and Democracy saging in two ways. First, the 78-day security issues, likely to try to shore Lab at Western University. campaign meant that leaders faced up his base of support. Her research focuses on how political leaders mobilize a large challenge in communicating New Democratic Party leader Tom their organizations, and a consistent theme while avoiding Mulcair’s main message, at the outset, their strategies for managing being pulled “off message” by unex- emphasized the real possibility that uncertainty and crisis pected events and news headlines. his party would replace the governing conditions. She is editor (with Hans Michelmann) of Continuity A second challenge was to keep the Conservatives. Buoyed by the NDP’s and Change in Canadian Politics central message fresh, and relevant success in taking government in Al- (University of Toronto Press, to the campaign’s context, to engage berta, and by his record as Official Op- 2006) and “Uncertainty and citizens and attract media coverage. position leader, Mulcair positioned his the General Interest in the American Constitution,” in How well did each of the three major party as the best choice for change. “I Louis Imbeau and Steve Jacob party leaders address these pressures? want to speak to every Canadian who (eds.), Behind a Veil of Ignorance? The leaders of the Conservative and thinks Mr. Harper’s government is on Power and Uncertainty in New Democratic parties had trouble the wrong track, to every Canadian Constitutional Design (Springer, 2015). managing these challenges, while who is looking for change in Ottawa,” the Liberal leader was much more he said in early August. Mulcair com- @declercy successful in keeping his message municated a dignified but cautious @DemoLabUWO consistent, focused, and relevant. front-runner stance in the first lead- In early August, Conservative Prime ers’ debate. However, as the campaign Minister Stephen Harper began the wore on, he devoted much attention to campaign by emphasizing his proven using headline issues to try to further leadership ability and his party’s com- undermine the Tories. He spent much mitment to maintaining a steady eco- time speaking about the Harper gov- nomic approach. He stayed on mes- ernment’s failure to manage the Syri- sage during the resumption of Senator an refugee issue, the problems within ’s trial, despite much media the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade scrutiny. However, despite the virtues deal, and the right of women to wear of his confident, consistent commu- a niqab. The NDP leader’s messaging nications, by mid-September the mes- became diffused across a number of sage seemed stale. “More of the same” issues. Moreover, when he tried to made for rather boring headlines, and restore focus late in the campaign, he

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 34 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Leading the Party Troops on a Long Campaign: How the Party Leaders Managed the Message

seemed out of touch. In the context of ­generous, open minded, optimistic opinion polls showing marked decline and know in their heart of hearts that in support—to third place—Mulcair a Canadian is a Canadian is a Cana- continued to repeat that the NDP was dian.” As his third-place party moved the most competitive alternative, up in the poll standings, Trudeau re- needing only 35 more seats to replace mained on message. Although he, like the Conservatives. Mulcair, defended the right of women Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau to wear the niqab, he communicated began campaigning with a positive this position clearly, and without message, emphasizing that his party muddying his messaging or sacrific- was the only one with a real plan to ing the focus of his communications. strengthen the middle class and the Justin Trudeau concluded the cam- economy. He consistently reiterated paign with much the same message this theme and while he commented he had begun with: only the Liberals on several headline issues such as the will help people by raising taxes on Trans-Pacific Partnership deal and the the wealthiest citizens—Mulcair and Syrian refugee issue, he managed to Harper will not. avoid becoming enmeshed in these is- The eleven-week long campaign sues and being pulled off message. At amply demonstrates the difficulties the same time, he addressed Harper’s that party leaders face in articulating charge that he was “just not ready” consistent, responsive communica- to govern in part by aggressively tions. The Liberal Party’s majority win challenging the other leaders and by owes much to adroit party leadership defending the integrity of citizen- in managing the message across a ship during the Munk leaders’ debate protracted election period. by asserting Canadians “are kind,

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 35 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Political Staff

R. Paul Wilson Distinct species of staffers roam the their own personal time and may not Associate Professor, Clayton H. corridors of federal politics. Some use any government or parliamen- Riddell Graduate Program in work for political parties directly, but tary resources. Recent guidance from Political Management most are employed by Members of the Commissioner of Lobbying has Carleton University Parliament and by ministers. Paid by significantly curtailed the ability of A long-serving political taxpayers yet hired explicitly to pro- government-relations professionals to staffer in opposition and vide political support, these staffers campaign. with government ministers, including as director of represent a large pool of experienced It is essential, however, that staffers policy to the Prime Minister, and highly motivated political talent respect the precept “first, do no harm.” Paul Wilson teaches in the for all parliamentary parties. Party When political staff attract media professionally-oriented Riddell election teams are also augmented by Graduate Program in Political attention they risk derailing the cam- Management at Carleton loyalists who take time out from their paign. Stories about former or cur- University, specializing in the private sector lives to assist the cam- rent Conservative staffers during the study of the core executive, paign, usually on a volunteer basis. 2015 election campaign gave aid and caucus, and political staff. His article “A Profile of Ministerial When an election is called, those comfort to the party’s opponents. This Policy Staff in the Government privileged to hold political jobs are was clear during the August trial of of Canada,” Canadian Journal of expected to contribute to the politi- Senator Mike Duffy when former Political Science 48, no. 2 (2015) cal cause. Indeed, campaign work is Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) staffers is forthcoming. essential for establishing credibility Nigel Wright, Ben Perrin and Chris on any political team. A few staffers Woodcock were called to testify, and run for elected office, but most help when Nick Koolsbergen, PMO director with heavy lifting behind the scenes, of issues management on leave for whether with local campaigns, the na- the campaign, precipitated questions tional leader’s tour, or in the national about witness tampering by speaking party war room. This might involve with his former colleague during a developing and communicating the break in his testimony. In mid-Sep- party’s platform, scripting announce- tember, the prime minister was forced ments, preparing backgrounders off message by questions about staff and press releases for distribution, as anonymous sources grumbled coordinating voter identification and about Conservative campaign manag- get-out-the-vote efforts, managing a er and the internal “blame digital brand for a candidate or the game” became reporters’ preferred leader across various social media topic. platforms, responding to breaking Eruptions were not limited to the issues and even opposition research Conservatives. New Democratic Party so that campaigns know—and can leader Thomas Mulcair’s director exploit—their opponents’ previous of communications, Shawn Dearn, statements and record. became the story of the day when The rules of engagement for min- pressed to apologize for offensive two- isterial staff are clearly spelled out year-old tweets about the pope. Lib- by Treasury Board and by the Privy eral campaign co-chair Dan Gagnier Council Office, and for parliamentary was forced to resign after press reports staff by the House of Commons Board that he had provided advice to an of Internal Economy. Taxpayer funds energy company on how best to lobby may not be used for election purposes, a new Liberal government, something and so any staffers who wish to run Justin Trudeau conceded was “inap- for office or campaign full time must propriate”. Such episodes are damag- take a leave of absence; those cam- ing for two reasons. First, national po- paigning part time must do so only on litical campaigns are tightly scripted.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 36 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Political Staff

Leaders have only limited opportunity savvy mixed with (often) the energy, to communicate their policies and enthusiasm, and stamina of youth. priorities. Therefore when journalists Further, they are highly motivated to report problems generated by staffers, work for the party’s success since their they are not talking about the party’s future employment prospects depend carefully planned messages. Second, on it. But staffers need to do so behind because staff are often personally the scenes. When they become the connected to the leader, their gaffes or story bad things usually result. misconduct reflect on the leader more Elections represent a watershed directly than might be the case with moment at a personal level for politi- local candidates who are not part of cal staffers. Those belonging to the the inner circle. victorious party scramble for posts in Even positive publicity for political a euphoric but personally high-stakes staff, such as headlines acclaiming game of musical chairs. Many on the Liberal advisors Gerald Butts and Ka- losing side end up out on the streets tie Telford as “architects” of the party’s and competing with their former victory, can, however well deserved, colleagues for a much smaller num- distract from the leader and the ber of parliamentary positions, or for leader’s message and even insinuate private-sector jobs when their political that the leader is only being managed currency is trading at a big discount. by the big brains in the back room. No This is especially hard for staffers leader welcomes this image, least of when high campaign expectations all a prime minister, who must both be have just been dashed by cold water and be seen to be in charge. from the electorate. It is important Ultimately, political staffers have therefore to remember the deep hu- a vital role to play on any election man dimension of elections, which is campaign. They bring experience and true for staffers behind the scenes as much as it is for MPs and candidates.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 37 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Presidentialization of Executive Leadership in Canada

Three days before the 2015 election, consist of more than just the spectacle The Globe and Mail endorsed the of an American-style presidential Conservative Party, but not Stephen election campaign. Power and author- Harper, as its preferred choice to lead ity over government decision-making the country. The newspaper was im- has shifted from cabinet and Parlia- mediately mocked on social media ment to the prime minister and a for its implausible preferred scenario. group of unelected officials that work How can you endorse a party but not directly for the Canadian executive in its leader? The reaction demonstrated a very concentrated and centralizing a new truth about Canadian federal way. In this regard, presidentializing politics. It is increasingly difficult leadership is compounded by the Jamie Gillies to ascertain whether voters are in weakness of Canadian party mecha- fact voting for or against a particu- nisms that force executives to bend to Assistant Professor of Communications and Public lar party or whether they are voting Parliamentary caucus will. This makes Policy, Department of Journalism for or against a particular leader. removal of party leaders by cabinet and Communications The 2015 federal election was one in and elected members more difficult St. Thomas University which the vast majority of Canadi- than other Westminster democracies. Jamie Gillies’s research focuses ans were apparently casting a ballot The growth and aggrandizement of primarily on American and against Harper and in favour of Justin central agencies, especially the Prime Canadian executive leadership. Trudeau or Thomas Mulcair. They Minister’s Office, further presiden- His most recent publications include (with Howard Cody) were less likely to be voting Liberal or tializes the most important files and “The Canadian Party System NDP, and against the Conservatives. issues and has changed the role of and the Leadership of Stephen Further, the vast majority of voters cabinet considerably, from a first- Harper,” New England Journal of were likely unaware of the details in among-equals decision making body Political Science 8, no. 1 (2015), and (with Philip Orchard) each of the political party platforms. to a focus group to arguably a mere “Atypical Leadership: The It was indicative of a steadily increas- conduit for media releases today. Role of the Presidency and ing presidentialization of politics and The Globe and Mail endorsement also Refugee Protection, 1932-1952,” leadership in Canada. Presidential Studies Quarterly 45, alluded to the other key presidential- no. 3 (2015). In 2015, presidentializing forces izing element: the desire of Canadian focused the public’s attention on the citizens to view the prime minister not w3.stu.ca/stu/sites/faculty/gil- lies/index.aspx character, temperament, and elect- just as but as de ability of party leaders. This trend has facto head of state. This fused power significant effects on how campaigns then further complicates the norms are structured and goes to the heart of Parliamentary democracy because of how Canadian politicians today Canadians demand both a symbolic conceive of Parliamentary democracy. national leader and a committed So thinking about politics as a leader- partisan. driven spectacle is likely here to stay Stephen Harper discovered after with elections focused on how lead- three increasingly successful election ers perform and how leaders frame campaigns just how difficult this role their political opponents. The Team is when the public holds the executive Trudeaus, Team Mulcairs and Team responsible for government failures Harpers are the new reality. The same and also demands that the leader be can be said about the attention paid a positive symbol for the country. The to Elizabeth May over the Green Party, changes in campaign style, advertis- and to Gilles Duceppe rather than the ing, credit-claiming, and the personal- Bloc Québécois. ized nature of executive leadership These presidentializing, American- itself is sometimes an uncomfortable izing, and personalizing tendencies fit in a non-presidential system. It

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 38 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Presidentialization of Executive Leadership in Canada

is ironic that presidentialization in tendency that builds up leaders can Canadian leadership began with the also knock them off the pedestal. ascendancy of Pierre Trudeau and Following the elections of Barack that this same set of presidentializing Obama and Justin Trudeau, no one forces would help lead to Stephen should be under the illusion that the Harper’s downfall, outmaneuvered combination of the public’s focus on in the image-is-everything sweep- executive leadership and the techno- stakes by Justin Trudeau running on a logical savvy of political campaigns hope-and-change message. After all, communicating directly with the Harper institutionalized this presi- people is going to shift in the oppo- dentialization with the official use of site direction. Trudeau utilized social the “Harper Government” slogan in all media and direct two-way interaction communica- with voters and integrated it suc- tions. So he should not have been sur- cessfully into a very presidentialized prised then that in trying at the end of 2015 campaign. Consequently, in the very long 2015 campaign to frame an era of leader-focused Canadian the contest as not about him, it was in- politics, the public understanding of deed very much about him, and quite executive leadership looks remarkably personally. The same presidentializing ­presidential.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 39 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Ministerial (dis)Advantage in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election

Matthew Kerby The 2015 Canadian general election as the performance of the government Senior Lecturer, School of Politics has been described globally as a politi- of which the minister is an emissary. and International Relations cal earthquake, an unexpected rout, In this way, ministers’ electoral perfor- Australian National University and a stunning election victory or a mance may cast a broader light on to Matthew Kerby researches historic majority win. Headline news voter sentiment and the perception of broadly in the areas of elite is prone to exaggeration; to avoid get- government performance at the time political careers, judicial ting too caught up in the moment it is of an election. politics, and political communication. His work has useful to reflect on the past in order to The history of ministerial electoral appeared in the Canadian Journal inform the present. How best to assess performance typically plays in favour of Political Science, Political the outcome of the 2015 election? One of ministers. They win more often Communication, Legislative way is to examine how the election af- Studies Quarterly, and elsewhere. than their party confrères and they His recent publications include, fected cabinet ministers, but without win by wider margins of victory; if and with Alex Marland, “Media reference to individual ministers and when ministers lose, their margins Management in a Small Polity: their election narratives, which might of defeat are usually smaller than the Political Elites’ Synchronized otherwise taint our perspective. Calls to Regional Talk Radio margins for non-ministers. There and Attempted Manipulation of Cabinet ministers provide a unique are a number of explanations for this Public Opinion Polls” Political window into election dynamics. As phenomenon: political experience, Communication, 32, no. 4 (2015). both incumbent MPs running for re- access to privileged resources, name @matthewkerby election and members of the govern- recognition and exposure, safe seats matthewkerby.net ment, ministers are accountable for and better redistribution of perks in their performance as an MP as well as the minister’s riding. Regardless, the the success and failure of government take-home message is that ministers policy, to their constituents. The twin typically fare better than non-minis- conventions of individual and collec- ters when it comes to winning their tive ministerial responsibility mean seats in election. that the buck stops at the minister’s Yet when we look at ministerial turn- desk when it comes to matters that over at elections, we find considerable pertain to her portfolio, but ministers variation over the years. A compari- as a team take responsibility for the son of the 2015 election with the his- deeds and actions of government as a torical record reveals that the current whole by giving the House of Com- crop of vacating ministers exhibits mons the opportunity to pull the rug the fourth highest rate of defeat in out from under government at any 70 years. When put into context, the time. is a three elections which saw more minis- core pillar of Canadian democracy. ters lose their seats were the 1993 Votes of confidence are seldom an election in which the governing Pro- issue when the governing party holds gressive Conservative (PC) Party was a majority of the seats in the House, decimated down to two seats, and the which is why elections are so interest- 1984 and 1957 elections in which the ing from a ministerial point of view. PCs were elected to government on Every four years or so, voters take over the waves of the largest majorities in as judge, jury, and executioner with Canadian political history. The change respect to their incumbent MP. This in ministerial electoral fortunes expe- typically entails an assessment of MPs’ rienced in 2015 immediately follows performance or, by extension, the these landmark elections. performance of the party or leader. In If we turn our attention to measures the case of ministers, the assessment of individual ministerial performance, can extend directly to the minister’s an examination of ministers’ margins handling of their portfolio area as well

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 40 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Ministerial (dis)Advantage in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election

of victory reveals that ministers who kept their seats in the 2015 election won by considerably smaller margins than their predecessors in earlier elec- tions. Indeed, they fared only slightly better than ministers serving at the tu- multuous tail end of the Dienfenbaker ministry and those Liberal ministers who perished in the crushing Mul- roney victory in 1984. The margins of defeat for those unlucky and unlikely ministers who lost their seats in 2015 was also considerably higher, ranking fifth overall since 1945.1 The 2015 election may not have been the most earthshattering election in Canadian political history. But, from the perspective of ministers, there was certainly something different. The ministers who went into the 2015 elec- tion lost more seats, won by smaller margins, and lost by bigger margins than is usually the case. Indeed, the 2015 experience situates those minis- ters in a class typically associated with exceptional elections characterized by significant changes. When placed in the context of its peers, an examina- tion of the electoral fates of cabinet ministers suggests that the 2015 election was, as the outgoing finance minister described it, a “significant defeat” for the Conservative Party and by extension a remarkable win for the Liberals.

1 The 2015 ministers could arguably be ranked fourth given that only one minister, , a former un-elected senator lost in his bid to win a seat in the 2008 election.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 41 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Constituency Campaigning in the 2015 Federal Election

Canadian parties’ national campaigns volunteers or funds—into the local are accompanied by the constituency canvass. campaigns that must be run in each of Observing the canvass in several con- the nation’s ridings. The goals of con- stituencies allows for three observa- stituency campaigns in 2015 remained tions to be drawn about constituency largely identical to those of campaigns campaigning in the 2015 election. of the past. The 2015 election, howev- First, there is substantial variability er, saw some innovation in how local in the resources available to commit campaigns pursued their goals. to both the canvass and other forms There are two such goals. First, and of local campaigning. Some MPs hit most important, constituency cam- the streets with a group of six or more Royce Koop paigns identify supporters and get volunteers. One volunteer (typically Associate Professor, Department of them out to vote in either the advance armed with a smart phone or tablet) Political Studies polls or on election day. Second, local records names and whether residents University of Manitoba campaigns seek to identify and per- are supporters, while the other volun- Royce Koop writes about suade undecided voters. teers knock on doors. If a resident is political parties, representation, Constituency campaigns draw on an home and is identified as undecided, local politics, and online arsenal of methods to achieve these the candidate jogs up to the doorstep political communication. He is to provide their pitch. In this way, the author of Grassroots Liberals: goals. Canvassing and phone calls are Organizing for Local National used to identify supporters. Litera- campaigns can canvass entire neigh- Politics (UBC Press, 2015), which ture drops, door hangers, and signs bourhoods in a single afternoon. In won the 2014 Seymour Martin are used to help persuade undecided contrast, other candidates canvass all Lipset Best Book Award from by their lonesome selves, slowly and the American Political Science voters as well as give the campaign a Association, and, with Peter sense of momentum. On election day, inefficiently making their way down J. Loewen, Jaime Settle, and campaigns dispatch scrutineers to streets. James H. Fowler, “A Natural Experiment in Proposal Power polling stations where they mark off Second, the canvass in 2015, while and Electoral Success,” American supporters who have cast their ballots similar to past elections, was charac- Journal of Political Science 58, no. on sheets of paper; “runners” who terized by some technological innova- 1 (2014). retrieve these sheets from scrutineers; tion. Canvassers from all parties were @RoyceKoop callers who phone supporters who equipped with apps on their mobile home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~koopraj/ have not yet cast their ballots; and phones that carried the names and fleets of drivers who fan out into the contact information of electors in the riding to shuttle those who need a ride riding, provided by Elections Canada, to the polls. and included in their organization’s The local canvass remains the cen- database. Canvassers used the apps trepiece of any strong constituency to quickly identify whether residents campaign. Canvassing—or door- were supporters, confirm telephone knocking—remains likely the most numbers so residents could be called important activity carried out by these on election day, and record whether campaigns. Face-to-face contact, both residents would like to host a lawn campaign managers and political sign or volunteer with the campaign. scientists know, is the gold standard All information was updated in real for getting supporters out to vote, and time to the party’s central database. canvassing allows for a reliable record Furthermore, the apps use GPS tech- of supporters to be constructed. Ac- nology to track the location of can- cordingly, campaigns typically com- vassers so that others working on the mit substantial resources—either campaign can coordinate with teams already in the field.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 42 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Constituency Campaigning in the 2015 Federal Election

Finally, the canvass provides an ex- also paid to put up and maintain elec- ample of how central party campaigns tion signs along roadways throughout attempt to direct local operations. For the campaign. And volunteer callers instance, in 2015 the central Conserva- in some local operations were re- tive campaign mandated the number placed by firms that delivered robo- of supporters local organizations calls into the constituency; indeed, would be required to identify each day one campaign (Gordon Giesbrecht’s of the campaign. Those that fell short Conservative campaign in Winni- of their targets could expect to receive peg South) planned to dispatch four a disapproving phone call from “na- robocalls to every identified supporter tional.” This behaviour suggests that on election day reminding them to the parties appreciate the role of con- get out and vote. While volunteers are stituency campaigns in identifying undoubtedly important to campaigns, supporters and subsequently getting these examples demonstrate that them to the polls. some of the functions traditionally A classic question about constitu- associated with volunteers have been ency campaigning is whether they replaced with paid services. are labour or capital intensive. While Constituency campaigning is by its the tasks described above would seem nature a massive exercise in voter to demand a vast army of grassroots engagement and mobilization. While volunteers, capital also played a role the national campaigns may engage in the 2015 campaign. Some cam- in voter suppression and drive down paigns hired specialized businesses or turnout, through negative advertising even community leaders to carry out a for instance, constituency campaign- quick canvass of the riding in order to ing exists to literally move voters from identify supporters. Companies were their homes to voting booths.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 43 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE All Politics Is Not Local: Local Candidate Tweeting in the 2015 Election

Julie Killin Social media is generally considered of tweets written by the candidates to PhD Candidate, Political Science a positive development for election- assess the nature of campaign com- University of Calgary eering. ’s use of social munication in the Twittersphere.2 Julie Killin’s dissertation media in the 2008 American election First, we found that the majority of focuses on how a political continues to be heralded as the model all candidates in our study referenced candidate’s gender affects for the full potential of digital technol- their leader at some point during the the nature of their campaign ogy in an election campaign (Strömer- communications in Australian last month of the election. For ex- state and Canadian provincial Galley 2014). The Obama campaign ample, Liberal candidate election campaigns. was successful in using social media (Bonavista Burin Trinity) highlighted to solicit donations, mobilize grass- her leader in the following policy- Tamara A. Small roots supporters, and engage young tweet: “@JustinTrudeau’s plan invests Associate Professor voters. $3B for home, long-term and pallia- A different side of social media tive care” (October 2, 2015). This is Tamara A. Small’s research emerged in the 2015 Canadian fed- consistent with findings from the 2011 interests focus on digital eral election campaign. Several local Ontario election, which found that politics, specifically the use candidates became major news stories local candidates put a good amount of and impact of the internet for Canadian political actors. She because of comments and actions attention on the party leader within is the co-author of Fighting for made or captured on social media. Af- constituency campaigning (Cross et Votes: Parties, the Media and ter four-year old inappropriate tweets al., 2015). Voters in an Ontario Election (UBC surfaced, a Liberal candidate dropped Press, 2015), co-editor of Political While the local-candidate campaign Communication in Canada: Meet out the race. As did a Conservative carries little importance relative to the Press, Tweet the Rest (UBC candidate, who had posted YouTube the national campaign in the minds Press, 2014), and Mind the Gaps: videos making crank calls. Several of voters (see Blais et al., 2003), Canadian Perspectives on Gender other candidates were forced to apolo- and Politics (Fernwood Press, incumbent candidates and those in 2013). gize for comments/actions previously competitive ridings do tend to focus made on social media, including an their communication more on the NDP candidate who was rebuked for local campaign. These tweets pre- a disrespectful online remark about dominately include messages about Auschwitz. While these incidents gen- their daily whereabouts, and acknowl- erated considerable media attention, edge various community businesses, it is not clear how typical this is. residents, and local points of interest Much has been written, going back to like sports teams and community the 2008 election, on the use of social festivals. Interestingly, of those can- media by Canadian political parties didates in our study, none of those and their leaders (e.g., Francoli et al. who focused their messages more on 2012), however we know very little issues of national importance, like the about how Canada’s local candidates economy or the environment, were make use of it. We therefore decided elected. This might suggest that some to explore the use of one social media, candidates have a greater ability to Twitter, by sampling 33 local candi- present an independent message from dates across nine ridings in the last the national party than others, which month of the 2015 campaign.1 More coincides with their competitiveness specifically, we examine the content (Sayers, 1999).

1 Our sample was selected to include competitive and non-competitive electoral races across rural, suburban and urban ridings. The ridings include: Fleetwood Port Kells (BC), - (BC), Foothills (AB), (AB), Centre (MB), University Rosedale (ON), Bruce Grey Owen Sound (ON), (NS), and Bonavista Burin Trinity (NL). Data were collected for the four weeks prior to the election. 2 Retweets excluded.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 44 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE All Politics Is Not Local: Local Candidate Tweeting in the 2015 Election

This focus on the leaders extends to and (University . When lo- Rosedale); both candidates ran in very cal candidates in the sample “go competitive races and tweeted for negative,” they tweet against their followers to vote for them more times opponent(s)’ party and/or leader. than they requested followers to vote For example, liberal candidate Kim- for their party. berly Love (Bruce Grey Owen Sound) It appears that the controversial pre- tweeted, “Harper lacks ambition for campaign uses of social media that our country. His vision of Canada is got some candidates in trouble in 2015 small, meek and fearful” (October 5, is atypical against our sample of local 2015). Indeed, 20 of the 33 candidates candidates’ Twitter accounts during we followed tweeted a negative op- the campaign. Overall, we found that ponent leader reference. The tweeting candidates use Twitter rather con- of negative messages against local servatively. Rather than engaging in opponents was somewhat less com- local topic and issue, candidates stick mon (10/30 candidates). An example to the national party line. Despite the includes, “Why does @LarryMill- old adage, all politics is not local in the erMP support moves that sell out his Canadian Twittersphere. (former) fellow dairy farmers?” (Chris Albinati, Green Party, Sept. 29, 2015). REFERENCES The candidates from the Liberal and Blais, Andre, Elisabeth Gidengil, Agineszka the NDP parties were most likely to Dobryznska, Neil Nevette and . engage in negative campaigning at “Does the Local Candidate Matter? Candidate the local level, presenting an interest- Effects in the Canadian Election of 2000.” ing counter-narrative to the national Canadian Journal of Political Science 36, no. 3 (2003): 657-664. frame of the Conservative Party as the one most prone to propagating nega- Cross, William, Jonathan Malloy, Tamara A. Small, and Laura Stephenson. Fighting for Votes: tive messages. Parties, the Media and Voters in the 2011 Ontario Finally, the evidence of the dominance Election. Vancouver: UBC Press, 2015. of the national campaign narrative Francoli, Mary, Josh Greenberg, and Christopher in Twitter communication emerges Waddell. “The Campaign in the Digital Media,” in The Canadian Federal Election of 2011, edited when we examine the tweets that ex- by Jon H. Pammett and Christopher Dornan, plicitly ask followers to vote on Elec- 219-246. Toronto: Dundurn Press. tion Day. The majority of candidates Sayers, Anthony. Parties, Candidates and did not actually ask their followers to Constituency Campaigns in Canadian Elections. vote for them, but they rather invited Vancouver, UBC Press, 1999. followers to vote for their party. The Strömer-Galley, Jennifer. Presidential exceptions to this trend being Liberal Campaigning in the Internet Age. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014. candidates (Calgary Centre)

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 45 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Gender and Election 2015: Continuity with No Real Change

The 2015 federal election could be do not demand women candidates in broadly defined as about change. Yet, large numbers. for , the election repre- Parties only needed to nominate 169 sents the status quo: Canadian women women to field a gender-equal slate of are about as underrepresented now candidates in 2015. It is implausible as they were before the election. For that, of the 17 million women in Can- women, Election 2015 was more about ada, a party could not find 169 willing continuity than it was about change. to serve as candidates who could also This continuity can be seen in three survive an internal vetting process. places: the leaders, the candidates, Every political party centrally sets and the issues. some rules surrounding candidate Melanee Thomas Like most campaigns, this election nomination: it is clear this central pro- Assistant Professor, Department of focused on the party leaders. By defi- cess could, but often doesn’t, require Political Science nition, this main narrative was about that local party associations actively University of Calgary men: Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau, recruit women as candidates. Melanee Thomas’s research and Thomas Mulcair. Notably absent Of the three most competitive parties, focuses on the causes and is Elizabeth May. The Green Party and the New Democratic Party consis- consequences of gender-based political inequality in Canada May predicated their electoral strategy tently nominates the most women as and other post-industrial on earning media coverage through candidates: 43% of NDP candidates democracies, with a particular debates. This did not go as planned as in 2015 were women. Despite unex- focus on political attitudes May was often not invited to partici- pectedly losing a number of seats, the and behaviour. Her relevant publications include (with Marc pate in most of the scheduled debates. NDP’s caucus following the election André Bodet) “Sacrificial Lambs, Her absence ensured the voices most is 42% women. This suggests that the Women Candidates, and District Canadians heard during the campaign NDP actively recruits women as can- Competitiveness in Canada,” were primarily, if not exclusively, didates in ridings they stand a good Electoral Studies 32, no. 1. men’s. chance to win. @MelaneeLThomas Though absent as leaders, women The Conservative Party, by contrast, poli.ucalgary.ca/profiles/mel- were more present in the campaign as continues to lag behind other parties. anee-thomas candidates than ever before. Over 500 Only 19% of Conservative candidates, women were nominated candidates and only 17% of the new caucus, are and 16.5% of them (88) were elected. women. The Conservatives doubled This is the highest number of women the number of women nominated as ever elected to the House of Commons candidates between 2006 and 2008, in Canadian history. However, given suggesting that if the party chose to, the increase in seats to 338, the pro- it could recruit more women candi- portion of elected women candidates dates. That they do not do so reveals is about the same in 2015 as what it that gender equality is not a priority was in 2011, 2006, 2004, and 2000. for the party. Research suggests that Canadians For the Liberals, 2015 is a perplex- happily vote for women candidates, ing election with respect to gender so women’s presence as nominated equality. About 31% of Liberal candi- candidates (or lack thereof) is typically dates were women, and a number of framed in terms of supply to and de- Liberal candidates were unexpectedly mand from political parties. In 2015, elected. Despite this, the proportion of the problem was not with supply. women elected to the Liberal caucus is Instead, women are underrepresented markedly lower (27%). This suggests as candidates mostly because parties that the Liberals’ women candidates were disproportionately nominated

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 46 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Gender and Election 2015: Continuity with No Real Change

in ridings they had no hope of win- at all. Economic issues were framed ning, even unexpectedly. Though in terms of tax credits or government disappointing, this is in keeping with deficits; no party addressed Canada’s research that shows parties dispropor- pay gap. Childcare debates were fo- tionately nominate women in ridings cused on families rather than women; that they cannot win. The silver lining had a gendered lens been applied, is that the Liberal platform promised the role childcare plays in facilitat- that a Liberal cabinet would have ing mothers’ labour force participa- gender parity. tion may have been raised. Even the Still, Election 2015 highlights how niqab was presented as primarily most political parties in Canada are about security and . Had unwilling to nominate women as the niqab been viewed as a gender-­ candidates in equal numbers as men. equality issue, the absurdity of the This marks parties as a key, informal state using its power to coerce women barrier to women’s election. Given out of a garment would have been this, perhaps the most effective way to readily apparent. remove this barrier would be to pro- Overall, the 2015 federal election vide financial incentives for parties to marks a missed opportunity to ad- nominate more women as candidates. dress gender inequality in Canadian Finally, nearly every issue raised dur- politics. Instead, Canadians were pre- ing the campaign could have, but was sented with a campaign that, by these not, viewed through a gendered lens. measures, is more in line with the Murdered and missing Indigenous status quo than it was with change. women were addressed in passing, if

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 47 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE LGBT Activism in the 2015 Federal Election

With a lesbian premier of Ontario and ideologically predisposed to promote a gay premier of , equality, being an early adopter of one might think that attention to the the Declaration of Montreal on LGBT equal representation of sexual orien- Human Rights, it has also enshrined tation is no longer necessary. equality for LGBT members in its par- However, lesbian, gay, bisexual, and ty constitution and has a LGBT Com- transgendered (LGBT) Canadians mission as one of its representative are still far from achieving equitable bodies. Furthermore, its affirmative representation in the political pro- action policies require that it makes cess. Only six acknowledged LGBT special efforts to encourage and politicians held seats in the House of facilitate the electoral participation of Joanna Everitt Commons at the time of dissolution. women, LGBT, and minority candi- Professor, History and Politics One, , decided not to run dates. These policies only allow the University of New Brunswick— again. This election, once again six holding of nomination meetings once Saint John LGBT candidates (albeit several dif- candidates from under-represented Joanna Everitt is Dean of ferent ones) were successful despite groups have been sought out. The Arts at the University of New a slight increase in the number who Liberals established Queer Liberals in Brunswick in Saint John. She 2011, based originally in Toronto, but specializes in Canadian politics, actually ran. These numbers remain gender and public opinion, small, with the new members rep- now with chapters across the country. media coverage of male and resenting just 1.8% of the 338 seats The Conservatives followed with LGB- female party leaders, leadership in the House of Commons.Why are Tories, also set up in Toronto, with the evaluations, LGBT political goal of providing a “LGBT voice within activism, and voting behaviour so few LGBT candidates running for in Canadian elections. She is office and even fewer getting elected? the party, and a Conservative voice the co-author of Dominance The answer lies in many of the same in the LGBT community.” However, and Decline: Making Sense challenges that women and racial mi- representation is not as institutional- of Recent Canadian Elections ized, nor are the recruitment policies (University of Toronto Press norities have historically confronted. 2012) and Advocacy Groups as strong in either of these parties (nor First, it is not due to voter bias. A 2012 for that matter in the Bloc Québécois (UBC Press 2004) along with Environics survey found that 67% numerous articles and book or the Greens), as it is with the NDP. chapters. Recently she authored of Canadians showed a high level of “Gender and Sexual Diversity in agreement with the idea that gays and In 2015, women made up under 30% Provincial Election Campaigns” lesbians should be permitted to run of the candidates and won 26% of the Canadian Political Science Review seats in Parliament. Only six female 9, no. 1 (2015). for public office; a further 27% held no strong opinion. Only 6% disapproved. LGBT candidates ran, and only one www.unb.ca/saintjohn/arts/ These results put Canada ahead of all was elected. There were also few LGBT depts/historypolitics/politics/ other countries in the Americas in candidates who were non-white. Only people/everitt.html terms of openness to LGBT politicians. one trans candidate ran in this elec- However we fall behind other coun- tion (for the Strength through Democ- tries, including the United Kingdom, racy Party), although at least one other in terms of representation. ran for a NDP nomination. Instead, the barriers seem to be Attention to LGBT issues in the elec- located at the party level with party tion focused on parties’ and leaders’ gatekeepers, or with potential candi- efforts to demonstrate support for dates who do not feel that they would LGBT rights, evidenced by the appear- be welcomed by their party. ance of Mulcair, Trudeau, Duceppe, and May at major pride parades, and It is clear from the table following their criticism of Harper for not at- that the New Democratic Party is the tending. Conservative candidates also party that has been most open to run- failed to attend well-­publicized de- ning LGBT candidates. Not only is it

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 48 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE LGBT Activism in the 2015 Federal Election

bates on LGBT issues held in Toronto, comments made on the campaign Montreal and Ottawa. Grassroots trail. LGBT organizations within the parties While there are some signs that Cana- attempted to promote an inclusive da is becoming more open to the LGBT image by appearing at pride parades, community, the lack of any real debate providing information booths at these in this election on issues such as trans events, or hosting LGBT Family Day rights, housing for LGBT youth, or the celebrations. However, these efforts to criminalization of HIV status suggests show support were occasionally over- that much of the efforts of political shadowed by candidates in various parties continue to remain symbolic parties who drew attention, or were as opposed to substantive. forced to resign, due to homophobic

Number of out LGBT candidates by party, 2004-2015 Conservatives Liberals NDP BQ Greens Other Total 2004 2 4 15 1 0 22 2006 0 2 10 2 0 14 2008 2 3 3 0 1 9 2011 0 3 10 0 5 19 2015 1 6 9 0 3 1 20 Total 5 18 47 3 9 1 84

Source: Data compiled by the author

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 49 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Visible Minority and Indigenous Members of Parliament

Canada’s 42nd Parliament will include Numerical under-representation is 47 visible minority Members of Parlia- also evident when we look at Indige- ment and 10 Indigenous MPs, record nous MPs. While Indigenous peoples, highs for both groups. The Liberals including First Nations, Métis, and elected the most MPs of colour—83% Inuit, make up more than 4% of the of visible minority and Indigenous Canadian population, Indigenous MPs MPs will sit in the government cau- occupy just 3% of seats in the House cus—followed by the Conservatives of Commons, meaning they are only and the New Democrats. three-quarters of the way to propor- Visible minority and Indigenous Members of tionality. Parliament, by party Fifteen visible minority women and Erin Tolley three Indigenous women were elected Assistant Professor, Political Liberal Cons. NDP Total in 2015. This is on par with the 15 vis- Science University of Toronto Visible minorities 39 6 2 47 ible minority women and two Indig- enous women who were elected four Indigenous peoples 8 0 2 10 Erin Tolley’s research looks years earlier, but because the number at women, minorities, % of caucus 26 6 9 17 and diversity in Canadian of seats in the House of Commons has politics. She is co-editor of also increased, in proportionate terms, five books on immigration The diversity of the 42nd Parliament women of colour have in fact seen and and the their presence decrease. Still, they author of Framed: Media and dramatically outpaces the high-water the Coverage of Race in Canadian mark reached in the previous Parlia- remain a powerful force among visible Politics (UBC Press, 2015). ment when 28 visible minority and minority and Indigenous MPs where seven Indigenous candidates were 32% are women, compared to 25% of @e_tolley women among white MPs. politics.utoronto.ca/faculty/ elected. Following the 2011 election, profile/288/ MPs of colour made up 11% of the Candidates of colour tend to be elected House of Commons, compared to in only the most racially diverse rid- 17% following the 2015 election, an ings. On average, visible minority MPs increase of 54%. were elected in ridings where visible The presence of visible minority MPs minorities made up 45% of the popu- reasonably reflects the presence of lation, compared to the average feder- visible minorities in Canada. Among al riding, where 18% of the population Canadian citizens—those who are identifies as visible minority. Indige- eligible to run for office and vote in nous MPs, meanwhile, were elected Canadian elections—visible minori- in ridings where Indigenous peoples ties make up 15% of the population. make up, on average, 33% of the Visible minority MPs, meanwhile, population, even though Indigenous occupy 14% of seats in the House of peoples make up 5% of the population Commons, meaning that near mirror of the average federal riding. In other representation has been achieved. words, to the extent that people of co- However, the bulk of visible minority lour are elevated to elected office, this MPs are of South Asian and Chinese typically only occurs when they run in descent; most other visible minority ridings whose demographic complex- groups are under-represented in Par- ion mirrors their own. Analysis by liament. This underscores that while myself and Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant benchmarking the elevation of diverse shows that the majority of ridings voices to elected office is important, a did not include a single candidate of singular focus on “success” can con- colour running for any of the competi- ceal persistent representational gaps. tive political parties, even though vot- ers—both white and minority—show

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 50 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Visible Minority and Indigenous Members of Parliament

little bias against candidates of colour. bency in Canadian politics, running in This suggests party elites are making a riding that does not include a sitting assumptions about the ridings in MP is a considerable electoral advan- which they think candidates of colour tage. Of the visible minority candi- can win. dates who were elected, 85% were The Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP non-incumbents, compared to 59% of fielded 143 visible minority and 44 white candidates. Indigenous candidates in this elec- When political parties make an ef- tion. That compares to the 64 visible fort to recruit and nominate diverse ­minority and 23 Indigenous candi- candidates and do so in ridings where dates nominated by the same three the party is competitive, those candi- parties in advance of the 2011 election. dates can—and do—win. We should The number of candidates of colour celebrate the inclusion of diverse faces thus more than doubled in just one in the House of Commons, but remain electoral cycle, though we should conscious of the ways in which their bear in mind that 30 more electoral pathways to politics can be obstructed. districts existed in the 2015 contest. Although it is beyond the scope of this The large number of ridings without analysis, we should also examine the incumbent candidates undoubtedly positions that MPs of colour occupy widened the pipeline for new polit- on committees, within caucus, and ical entrants. Visible minority MPs in Cabinet. Presence is important, were more likely than others to run in but influence matters most. Above ridings without an incumbent (34% of all, in spite of the representational visible minority MPs ran in so-called gains that have been made, they are open ridings, compared to 27% of in some cases small, meaning we still white MPs and 20% of Indigenous have some way to go to achieve a truly MPs). Given the advantage of incum- representative democracy.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 51 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Third Parties in the 2015 Federal Election: Partying like It’s 1988?

Third-party spending has been the to the August 2 writ-drop, bypassing focus of much attention over the last spending limits altogether. couple decades. While policy debates Because third parties have up to four go back to the 1970s, the estimated months after election day to report $4.7 million spent by third parties their campaign spending and have during the 1988 federal election was no obligation to report spending that what first raised serious questions occurred prior to the writ drop, it is concerning the harms of unrestricted nearly impossible to estimate third- Andrea Lawlor spending by persons or groups who party spending so soon after the Assistant Professor, Political participate in elections, other than a election. However, some preliminary Science political candidate, registered political observations are possible based on King’s University College, party, or constituency association. A Western University the list of registered third parties and Royal Commission and several Su- their publicised activities during the Andrea Lawlor’s research preme Court cases later, the question campaign. focuses on the impact of of how third parties should be regu- media on politics and public lated has reached a point of relative Our first step is to identify which policy. Her most recent actors decided to put themselves publications include (with policy stability. Since the 2004 federal Erin Crandall) “Third Party election, third parties have operated forward as third parties. Of the Election Spending in Canada under relatively modest spending 110 registered third parties, six are and the United Kingdom: A limits during the official campaign individuals, four represent business Comparative Analysis,” Election interests, 31 are unions or labour asso- Law Journal 13, no. 4, and period: $150,000, of which no more “Local and National Accounts than $3,000 can be used to promote or ciations, and 69 are interest advocacy of Immigration Framing in a oppose the election of candidates in a organizations (mostly non-partisan, Cross-National Perspective,” particular electoral district. This num- either incorporated or struck only for Journal of Ethnic and Migration the purpose of this campaign). We can Studies 41, no. 3 (2015). ber is adjusted for both inflation and election length such that for the 2015 also get a sense of where these parties www.kings.uwo.ca/academics/ federal election third parties were are located: more than three-quarters kings-faculty/faculty- are listed in Ontario (48 out of 110) biographies/andrea-lawlor/ permitted to spend approximately $430,000. or British Columbia (41 out of 110). Interestingly, some of the third-party Interestingly, these modest limits have Erin Crandall advertisers that gained the most trac- been followed with even humbler tion in the media, such as Working Assistant Professor, Department spending. With only a few exceptions, Canadians and Engage Canada, are of Politics third parties over the last several elec- Acadia University not on the registered list. Despite their tions have not maximized their spend- activity in the pre-writ period, these Erin Crandall’s research ing, nor have they participated in large two groups opted to either forego or interests include Canadian numbers. In the 2011 election, 55 third courts and constitutionalism, limit their campaign spending to less as well as election law. Recent parties spent a total of $1.2 million, than the $500 registration threshold. publications include “Does the in comparison to the approximately System of Judicial Appointment $67 million spent by political parties. A second step for understanding Matter? Exploring Women’s However, a shift, and a potentially third-party advertising in the 2015 Representation on Ontario’s important one at that, appears to have election is to look at third parties in Courts,” Canadian Journal of light of their stated interests. Some Women and the Law 26, no. occurred with the 2015 election: 1) a 2 (2014) and, with Andrea record number of groups and indi- third parties are allied (in intent, Lawlor, “Understanding Third viduals registered as third parties though not formally) with the goals Party Electoral Spending: A (110 as of October 19), and 2) some of political parties, while others are Comparison of Canada and the focussed on advocating for particular United Kingdom,” Election Law third parties, like Engage Canada Journal 13, no. 4 (2014). and Conservative Voice, appeared to issues. Motivations for participating engage in strategic election spending likely differ for these groups, but in @ErinLCrandall any case, the outcomes frequently polisci.acadiau.ca/dr-erin- by beginning their advertising prior crandall.html

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 52 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Third Parties in the 2015 Federal Election: Partying like It’s 1988?

­appear quite similar. Advertising by ties will inevitably have overlapping the former can be leveraged to the views on campaign issues, connec- advantage of one party (though any tions are often fodder for critics. The formal attempt to do so would be col- UNIFOR case is no exception: prior to lusion, which is illegal under the Elec- the writ-drop, Stephen Harper mused tions Act). While uncoordinated, such that he was “quite sure that the NDP alliances can hardly go unnoticed. [was] working very closely with those Engage Canada’s radio advertising unions and their ads.” specifically referenced “Harper and The 2015 election may indeed raise the Conservatives,” connecting them concerns similar to those of the 1988 to big business. Even HarperPAC’s “free trade” election despite there now pro-Conservative advertising made being firm spending limits in place. few friends in the party, with party That said, the increased participation officials rumoured to be furious about by third parties in this campaign is unsanctioned ads undoing elements arguably as much a cause for celebra- of the party’s communication strategy. tion as concern. Even so, that some The same is theoretically true of issue- third parties chose to spend large based third parties. Take the recently sums prior to the regulated campaign debated Trans-Pacific Partnership period, and are doing so in a way that deal. Registered third party and auto- may overlap with party goals, suggests motive-sector labour group UNIFOR that the current policy framework spoke out forcefully against the deal. may need to be revisited. While some interest groups and par-

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 53 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Organized Interests Strike Back!

Organized interests in Canada no help consolidate early party leads and doubt shelled out a record amount to help frame the dominant narrative at influence the latest federal election. the start of the campaign. And unfortunately, we may never The issue of the role of PACs in Cana- know how much. Indeed, one of the dian elections surfaced when a group key distinctive features of this elec- called HarperPAC emerged on the tion was the visibility that political scene in June. The overt reference to action committees such as Harper- Harper in the name made it difficult to PAC, Engage Canada, and Working distinguish it from the political party, Canadians gained in the months prior raising concerns regarding the inde- to the official election period. More pendence of the PAC. It was rapidly common in the , political shut down after public efforts from Rachel Laforest action committees (PACs) are broad the Conservative Party to distance Associate Professor, and Director, coalitions that pool campaign contri- itself from the organization. Neverthe- Master of Public Administration butions from members to endorse or less, a debate on the place of PACs in Program, School of Policy Studies Canadian politics was launched. Queen’s University oppose political candidates or specific issues. Through political action com- Some argue that organized interests Rachel Laforest is one of can circumvent rules regarding the Canada’s foremost experts on mittees, special interests (like corpora- the nonprofit sector. Rachel tions, labour unions, and even private amounts that can be spent in a politi- has been working in this field individuals) can spend millions of cal campaign and thus undermine the for over fifteen years and dollars on television and radio ads democratic process. Others counter is respected nationally and to further their position on specific that as long as the integrity of the internationally for her research official electoral period is protected, on governance and government- issues or industry, none of which is nonprofit relations. She is also required to be reported. As a result, then PACs are operating within the interested in intergovernmental they are a new vehicle for organized current legislative framework. They relations and Canadian politics. are simply exercising their freedom of interests, that have only recently been She is the author of Voluntary speech—one of the many actors who strictly banned from making dona- Sector Organizations and the State could add their voice to the demo- (UBC Press, 2011) and editor of tions in Canada. Their growing pres- cratic debate. Government-Nonprofit Relations ence promises to usher in a new era in in Times of Recession (McGill- Canadian politics. What is clear from the latest election Queen’s University Press, 2013). result is that the influence of the early Third-party spending outside of the @r_laforest advertising campaign eroded over electoral period is not new. However, time, as illustrated by the movement election laws in Canada ban corpo- in the polls. The fact that this was one rate and union donations to political of the longest election periods in Ca- parties and candidates. Furthermore, nadian history certainly helped limit individual and third-party annual the ability of PACs to sway voters. donations are limited in an effort to However, the future role of PACs in keep the electoral process fair and Canadian politics shouldn’t be judged transparent. In addition, spending by simply on their apparent ability to political parties and third-party sup- influence public opinion. We need to porters is strictly limited once the writ remember that millions of dollars are is dropped. As a result, organized in- being spent behind their ads, both on terests have to find new ways to influ- the left and the right of the political ence politics. With fixed election dates spectrum. Within shorter election now implemented, they can start their timeframes, the impact these organi- advertising campaigns early and take zations have may start to materialize advantage of the months leading up in electoral outcomes. to the official electoral period in order to sway voters. Although they cannot Furthermore, political action com- assist the campaign directly, PACs can mittees can have a polarizing effect

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 54 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Organized Interests Strike Back!

on our electoral debates. While one The rising influence of PACs in would expect PACs to form along ideo- Canadian politics has the potential logical lines, the 2015 pre-electoral to distort the democratic process in period witnessed of favour of wealthier and more power- GreenPAC, a single-issue committee ful interests. This practice stands in formed to champion environmental clear contrast to the spirit of current issues. If PACs continue to grow as campaign finance laws that restrict a vehicle for political influence, it the ability of interest groups to make is likely that we may see a greater contributions to national electoral number of these single-issue orga- campaigns and to engage in political nized interests and the rise of politi- advertising. If we want to preserve the cal activism centered around single integrity of the democratic process, issues could increase dramatically. In we need clarity and transparency with such a way, organized interests could regards to the politics of influence, take advantage of wedge issues and or else Canadians’ basic democratic partisan conflict. values will be undermined.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 55 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Les syndicats en campagne contre Harper

L’implication des syndicats durant les sociaux que par affichage et dans les campagnes électorales n’est pas chose médias traditionnels, elle a commencé nouvelle, et le scrutin de 2015 n’a pas dès le mi-juillet et s’est poursuivie fait exception. Au contraire, l’enga- jusqu’à la tenue du scrutin. gement syndical semble même avoir Plus modeste, la campagne « Votez été particulièrement fort cette fois-ci pour les services publics » de l’Institut puisque vingt-huit organisations syn- de la fonction publique du Canada dicales se sont enregistrées comme (IFPC), qui représente les profession- tierces parties auprès d’Élections nels du gouvernement du Canada, a Canada, de loin le chiffre le plus élevé porté un message similaire à celui de des quatre dernières élections géné- l’AFPC. Elle a surtout été visible en rales. Parmi elles se trouvent à la fois ligne et par quelques affichages ciblés. Thomas Collombat de grandes structures nationales telles Professeur adjoint, Département l’Alliance de la fonction publique du Le CTC, qui porte la voix de la grande des sciences sociales Canada (AFPC), le Syndicat canadien majorité des syndicats au pays, a Université du Québec en opté pour une campagne axée sur les ­Outaouais de la fonction publique (SCFP) ou le Congrès du travail du Canada (CTC), enjeux socio-économiques (emploi, Thomas Collombat est retraite, santé, services à l’enfance) et membre du Centre d’études mais aussi des organisations d’enver- gure provinciale ou même locale. invitant la population à voter « pour sur l’intégration et la un meilleur choix », mais sans indi- mondialisation (CEIM) et du C’est la vigueur des attaques menées Centre de recherche sur les quer ouvertement duquel il s’agissait. innovations sociales (CRISES). contre eux par le gouvernement Le message fut plus explicite du côté Ses travaux se concentrent fédéral dans les dernières années qui du SCFP, le plus grand syndicat au sur les dynamiques de a poussé les syndicats à s’impliquer pays, qui a soutenu ouvertement le l’internationalisme syndical si ouvertement dans la campagne. dans les Amériques et sur les Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD). Ceux de la fonction publique fédérale dimensions socio-politiques du Une fois encore, le mouvement syn- syndicalisme au Québec et au en avaient non seulement contre les Canada. Il est l’auteur de « Labor coupures imposées par Ottawa, mais dical canadien fut donc partagé entre and Austerity in Québec: aussi contre les changements à leur un appel au vote stratégique afin de Lessons from the Maple Spring » régime de négociation collective ou battre les conservateurs et un soutien Labor Studies Journal 39, no. 2 au NPD. Ce débat n’a toutefois pas (2014). encore le resserrement des règles d’accréditation syndicale. Par ailleurs, créé autant de remous qu’en 2006, @TCollombat tous les syndicats au pays, même ceux alors qu’un des principaux dirigeants prof.uqo.ca/thomas.collombat de juridiction provinciale, ont été tou- syndicaux du pays avait explicitement chés par la loi C-377 leur imposant la appelé à voter libéral dans certaines remise d’un rapport financier annuel circonscriptions pour bloquer le Parti et sapant indirectement la légitimité conservateur. Il semble qu’après dix de leurs actions politiques. ans de régime Harper, les syndicats aient été plus enclins à opter pour le Les stratégies engagées par les diffé- vote stratégique, quitte à ne pas le rents syndicats ont été variées. La plus faire en faveur de leur allié tradition- visible fut sans doute celle de l’AFPC. nel, le NPD. L’avance du NPD dans les Représentant la grande majorité des sondages en début de campagne fai- fonctionnaires fédéraux, celle-ci a sait toutefois en sorte que celui-ci se consacré cinq millions de dollars à sa trouvait pour une rare fois à bénéficier campagne « Stoppons l’hémorragie » des appels au vote stratégique. qui a cherché à souligner l’impact des coupures engagées par le gouverne- Au Québec, les syndicats ne sont ment Harper sur la qualité des ser- généralement pas traversés par ces vices offerts par la fonction publique états d’âme. Plusieurs organisations, fédérale. Déployée tant sur les médias dont la Confédération des syndicats

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 56 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Les syndicats en campagne contre Harper

nationaux (CSN), ne peuvent statutai- appel de la centrale syndicale comme rement se prononcer en faveur d’un un appui tacite au NPD, malgré les parti politique. Ceci n’a par contre pas explications données par la FTQ elle- empêché la CSN de faire activement même. campagne contre le Parti conservateur Il est toujours difficile d’évaluer auprès de ses membres, que ce soit l’impact des campagnes syndicales dans ses publications ou par le biais sur le résultat du vote, même s’il est des interventions publiques de ses raisonnable de penser qu’il fut plus dirigeants. fort au sein de leur membership La plus grande surprise est sans doute que dans le reste de la population. venue de la Fédération des travail- Se réjouissant ouvertement de la leurs et travailleuses du Québec (FTQ) défaite conservatrice, le mouvement qui avait toujours soutenu le Bloc syndical se chargera au cours des québécois depuis sa fondation, à une quatre prochaines années de rappeler exception près. Cette fois-ci, la FTQ a au nouveau gouvernement libéral non seulement décidé d’opter pour le plusieurs de ses engagements, en vote stratégique contre Harper mais particulier celui d’abroger la loi C-377. de concentrer ses efforts dans dix cir- Mais par ces campagnes les syndicats conscriptions du Québec en appuyant ont surtout souligné qu’ils avaient le candidat qui avait le plus de chances encore un rôle à jouer en politique, de battre les conservateurs. La volonté une fonction que les conservateurs de renverser Harper l’a emporté sur les ont justement constamment cherché à allégeances partisanes traditionnelles. leur ­contester. Cette position inattendue de la FTQ fut décrite dans les médias comme une tuile dans la campagne difficile du Bloc au Québec. Elle a aussi conduit Thomas Mulcair à interpréter cet

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 57 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Public Servants, Political Activity, and “Harperman”

Most Canadians would be hard cross a line, given that it was led by a pressed to remember most, if any of public servant? The short answer is the political parties’ campaign songs yes, the longer answer is, it’s compli- used to boost energy at campaign cated. events and bookend speeches across Over the years, the Supreme Court of the country. Though, there is one song Canada has wrestled with questions from the 2015 campaign that may still of public service political activity. The be ringing in the ears of some Canadi- landmark 1991 decision in Osborne v. ans: “Harperman.” Canada is particularly noteworthy. A Tony Turner, then a public servant group of public servants challenged working as a scientist at Environment the existing prohibitions on political Jonathan Craft Canada, attracted international atten- activity arguing they violated public Assistant Professor, Political tion with his “Harperman” YouTube servants’ freedom of expression and Science and the School of Public music video. It is a trenchant critique freedom of association under the Policy and Governance of then Prime Minister Harper’s Charter of Rights and . The University of Toronto governance approach and policies. court agreed, finding that the existing Jonathan Craft specializes It features a folksy laundry list of provisions were too broad and struck in comparative political- complaints along with a chorus that them down. This opened the door administrative relations, the policy-making process, and makes crystal clear Turner’s disdain for most public servants (save for the policy advice and analysis. He is for the Conservative governing party most senior appointments) to engage the author of the forthcoming and Prime Minister Harper: in a variety of political activities, for book Backrooms and Beyond: example, volunteering on election Partisan Advisers and the campaigns and posting political lawn Politics of Policy Work in Canada We want you gone (gone, gone) (University of Toronto Press, signs. Yet, the courts have also found 2016). You and your pawn (pawn, pawns) that public servants owe a duty of loyalty to the Government of Canada, @Jonathan_craft No more con (con, cons) and therein lies the rub. As well, the www.jonathancraft.ca Time to move on (on, on) 1991 decision pre-dates the ability of Get out of town (town, town) a dissatisfied public servant to upload Don’t want you round (round, round) a video that can be accessed by an au- Harperman, it’s time for you to go. dience of hundreds of thousands and replayed in mainstream news. Canada’s Public Service Employment With 730,000 views and a cross- Act (PSEA), its Values and Ethics Code country sing-along on September for the Public Sector, and the oath that 17, “Harperman” shines a light on an all public servants take upon assum- important facet of Canadian gover- ing office all include provisions that nance: the political activities deemed compel public servants to carry out either permissible or out of bounds for their duties in a non-partisan and our nation’s public servants. It reveals impartial manner and “loyally” serve an interesting tension between the the Government of Canada. Loyalty is, fundamental rights for public ser- however, not absolute and the Gov- vants, as Canadian citizens, and their ernment of Canada’s guidance on the duties and obligations as professional, matter points to three situations that non-partisan, and loyal servants to the may result in an exception to the duty Government of Canada. Where are the of loyalty, including if: lines to be drawn between a worker’s basic Charter rights and the duties of • the Government is engaged in a public servant? Did “Harperman” illegal acts;

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 58 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Public Servants, Political Activity, and “Harperman”

• government policies jeopardize dismissal. His resignation before the life, health or safety; or conclusion of the investigation into • the public servant’s criticism a potential conflict of interest means has no impact on the ability to we will never know for sure. While perform effectively the duties of this is an isolated and rare instance a public servant or on the public of explicit political protest by a public perception of that ability. servant, the potential damage to the institution of the public service will likely outlast Turner’s sense of person- While Turner may argue that “Harper- al satisfaction and 15 minutes of fame. man” does not affect his ability to Charter rights are paramount but not perform effectively, perception is as absolute. The public service oath, its important as reality. “Harperman” is core values, and Canada’s fundamen- highly problematic because it involves tal governance arrangement require a public servant publicly rebuk- real and perceptively fair, impartial, ing the government of the day, and and loyal public servants, regardless of actively calling for the replacement whichever party forms government. of a government, and prime minister. Within the boundaries of the law, the Measured against the three criteria public service must march to the tune above it is likely that Turner would of a democratically elected drummer. have faced disciplinary action, if not

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 59 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE All About Strong Alliances: First Nations Engagement in the Federal Election

For many members of First Nations girls was, by many, interpreted as a communities, the basic rights of First synopsis of how little his party cared Nations and the protection of their for the plight of members of First Na- environment were at stake in the tions communities: “It’s not high on 2015 Canadian federal election. The our radar, to be honest.” His position thought of another Conservative ma- during the campaign on this impor- jority was too much to bear for many tant issue would not change, despite of them. the Truth and Reconciliation Commis- To prevent this Conservative major- sion’s report, which included a call for ity from happening, First Nations an inquiry. and like-minded Canadians used the The Tories also all but ignored a loom- Pamela Palmater alliances they forged under the Idle ing crisis facing Canada, and a matter No More movement to rally the vote of importance to many members of Associate Professor and Chair in Indigenous Governance against this possibility. First Nations communities: climate Ryerson University was the largest social movement Can- change. During the Conservative ada has ever seen. For over six months tenure, Canada withdrew from the Pam Palmater is Mi’kmaw from the Eel River Bar First Nation. in 2013, it captured media headlines Kyoto Accord to reduce greenhouse She has been a practising around the world. To members of this gas emissions and enacted Bills C-45 for sixteen years, focusing on movement, Stephen Harper’s focus and C-38, which ended protections laws impacting Indigenous on security was based on a campaign for many waterways and reduced peoples. She is also a social justice activist and frequent of fear, not facts. The Conservative environmental evaluation and public media commentator on First government’s Anti-Terrorism Act (Bill consultative processes. The poten- Nations issues. Her two books C-51) had the potential to make Cana- tially catastrophic consequences for are Beyond Blood: Rethinking dians terrorists for merely expressing future generations were not some- Indigenous Identity (Purich Publishing, 2011) and Indigenous their dissent. The result was public thing that many members of the First Nationhood: Empowering outcry from many segments of society, Nations movement would accept. Grassroots Citizens (Fernwood, including some former prime minis- However, it is important to note that 2015). ters, former this was never a partisan issue. Those @Pam_Palmater justices, Canadian Security Intelli- First Nations who do vote have voted www.pampalmater.com gence Service (CSIS) officials, for different parties at different times, and academics. How Bill C-51 might be at both federal and provincial levels. used to supress another Idle No More In this election, there were a few First movement was a source of concern. Nations candidates running for the Throughout the campaign, the Con- Conservative Party. The issue was servative Party chose not to address more about Harper’s control over the the rising incarceration rates of First party and its ideological orientation. Nations, the 1,200 murdered and It seems like the Idle No More move- missing Indigenous women and girls ment regrouped during the 2015 from over the past 30 years, or the election campaign. Numerous civil thousands of Indigenous children in society groups, First Nations commu- care. There was similarly no plan for nities, and grassroots groups banned the 120 First Nations without clean together and used every opportunity water, the many who die from pre- to engage with the public through ventable diseases, or the thousands lectures, community meetings, house without housing or education. Prime visits, mail-outs, and media com- Minister Harper’s response during mentary. Numerous conference calls a CBC interview in December 2014 and strategy sessions were held with regarding an inquiry on murdered diverse groups all over Canada. First and missing Indigenous women and Nations and various organizations like

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 60 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE All About Strong Alliances: First Nations Engagement in the Federal Election

the Council of Canadians, The David Nations’ (AFN) National Chief, Perry Suzuki Foundation, Amnesty Inter- Bellegarde, flip-flopped during the national, and many others, including campaign on whether he would vote unions, youth groups, students, law- or not and on his commitment that yers, academics, scientists, environ- the AFN would remain non-partisan. mentalists, and a wide range of social Yet, the movement for change was so justice activists, collectively used so- strong that First Nations grassroots cial media to engage with Canadians organizations and community either of all ages with reports, analyses, vid- “rocked the Indigenous vote” or mobi- eos, webcasts, commentaries and fact lized their Canadian allies to do so. sheets. This was a historic example of While it is important to note that all a peaceful, but powerful movement of parties have had a hand in the dis- members of First Nations communi- possession and oppression of First ties and other like-minded Canadians Nations, Harper’s administration was to get rid of a government. particularly rough. But Canada has However, there was debate within changed. Its people, First Nations and First Nations communities about Canadians alike, worked together for whether they should vote or not. change both within the election pro- Many members of First Nations cess, in terms of voting, and outside traditionally do not participate in that process, in terms of public educa- federal elections because they iden- tion and mobilization. It remains to be tify as members of sovereign nations seen what that change will look like, rather than as Canadian citizens. In but at the moment there is a sense of 2015, many still felt the same way optimism that the new Liberal govern- about voting, but were so adamant ment may afford First Nations peo- about getting rid of the Conservative ples, the environment, and Canadians government that they felt they should more just treatment than the outgoing vote. Controversy arose within com- Conservative administration did. munities when the Assembly of First

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 61 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Struggles and Opportunites for Issues Advocacy: The Case of The Canadian Federation of Nurses Unions

Elections provide unique opportuni- beyond 37 days). Restrictions on the ties for non-profit organizations to amount spent in any one electoral bring public attention to their issues district also apply. and to influence political-party plat- For non-profit organizations wanting forms. The focus on image over issue to influence political agendas, election in the media coverage of the 2015 campaigns are important opportuni- campaign significantly impacted this ties for action given that future policy dynamic. In the case of the Canadian makers (i.e. candidates) are mostly ac- Federation of Nurses Unions (CFNU), cessible for issues discussion and are despite a well-executed strategy, the reactive to public opinion and political political and media attention sur- messaging. Much of this advocacy Georgina Grosenick rounding the issue of health care flows through media forums. Agen- remained wanting. However, social Instructor, School of Journalism da-setting theory holds that the issues and Communication media and targeted audience engage- that become prioritized by the media Carleton University ment provided alternative opportu- influence what candidates, parties nities for CFNU to influence public Georgina Grosenick is an and the electorate later accept to be instructor and a non-profit dialogue around the issue. important issues. The electorate rein- strategic communication Issue advocacy is an important forces these priorities in their discus- trainer and consultant. communication function for many sions with candidates on their door- Her research analyzes the strategic communication and non-profit organizations. Outside steps or in local forums, which then advocacy practices of non- of election periods, most non-profit get reinforced with party leadership. profit organizations to achieve advocacy is unrestricted. Charities The more grassroots and sustained social and political change. are the exception, operating under the media interest in an issue, the In her professional practice, she has been instrumental the strict guidelines of the Income higher the likelihood that candidates in helping organizations to Tax Act. During federal elections, and parties will take a position on the more effectively communicate once the writ is dropped, non-profits issue and incorporate that position their issues to key stakeholder must restrict their spending to less into their platform during the election groups and to raise their issues within public discourse. She is than $500, as prescribed by Elections and in their governing mandate. the author of “Opportunities Canada, for activities that “promote or CFNU’s #Vote4Care initiative was a Missed: Non-profit Public oppose a registered party or the elec- comprehensive, effectively strategized Communication and Advocacy tion of a candidate, including one that in Canada,” in Alex Marland, and well-executed issues advocacy Tamara Small, and Thierry takes the position on an issue with campaign. Launched during National Giasson (eds.), Political which a registered party or candidate Nurses week, #Vote4Care sought to Communication in Canada (UBC is associated.” Messages posted freely Press, 2014). put health care on political and public (social media, third-party websites, agendas and to connect government @grosenickg earned media) are not included. Most health-care cuts with nurses’ work- non-profit organizations with limited places (CFNU, personal communi- budgets and activities remain within cation, October 16). The campaign the $500 limit. Organizations with was extensive and multi-faceted. It deeper pockets and wanting to under- included a website, paid radio adver- write a more expansive and impactful tisements, paid social-media adver- issues advocacy campaign, like CFNU, tisements, professional videos and must register as a “third party” with infographics, Facebook promotions Elections Canada. These organizations and selfie shares, Twitter campaigns, may spend up to $150,000 on election twibbons, op-eds, and directed com- communication (adjusted for infla- munication to member organizations tion and the length of election periods

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 62 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Struggles and Opportunites for Issues Advocacy: The Case of The Canadian Federation of Nurses Unions

and nursing workplaces around the surrounding the issue or CFNUs posi- country. The messaging was poignant, tion on the campaign trail. accessible, and clearly articulated the Yet, the #Vote4Care campaign was need for citizens to vote for better not without impact. Sidestepping the health care and to hold candidates mainstream media, it communicated accountable. CFNU also live tweeted directly to the electorate on the issues health-care issues during the Munk through extensive paid advertise- Debate and hosted a tweet-up. Nearing ments and targeted and social-media election day, CFNU released a perfor- networking. While direct correlations mance report of each party’s position are problematic, the contribution on health care. To promote media of these efforts to public sentiments coverage, it pursued and pitched news that prioritize health care cannot be stories, provided spokespeople, and discounted. CFNU also mobilized the offered media kits made up of re- nursing community to become en- search and background materials on gaged and advocate for health care to the campaign and the issues. local candidates. And they effectively Media coverage of the 2015 election positioned themselves as an impor- paid scant attention to issues. Instead, tant stakeholder in future political coverage was dominated by poll discussions surrounding health care. tracking, character assessments, and As media agendas prioritized images stories about the gaffes and personali- over issues in the 2015 election, effec- ties of party leaders and candidates. tive advocates turned to other forums These priorities offered few oppor- to raise and debate important political tunities for non-profit advocates to issues. The impact achieved by the influence media and party agendas; #Vote4Care campaign suggests that therefore, health care was a lost the agenda-setting authority of main- political issue in the campaign. Only stream media is no longer absolute. a smattering of news stories reported For non-profit advocates who, despite on it in any depth, and few mentioned best efforts, struggle to garner me- CFNU. All four parties made summary dia attention this may be a welcome announcements about health care but ­opportunity. there was little meaningful discussion

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 63 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Mobile News: The 2015 Election via News Apps

Mary Francoli We know that the news media plays monitored daily during the two week Associate Professor, School of an important role in helping citizens period preceding the election, from Journalism and Communication to make an informed decision at the October 5 to October 18. Election-relat- Carleton University ballot box. However, we know little ed content was tracked and coded in re- Dr. Francoli’s research looks about the impact of mobile media lation to the percentage of overall news at the relationship between on election coverage, or the impact content, and efforts were made to iden- digital media and issues related of the architecture of various news tify the percentage of unique content— to politics and governance. applications—or apps—on the ability content that had not appear­ ed on other While this is a large and diverse field, most of her research has of users to stay informed during the days or on multiple occasions on the focused on the way that digital election campaign. Understanding same day—on a daily basis. Attention media has impacted three broad this is important given that the way was also paid to the architecture of the areas: citizen engagement and that Canadians consume election apps to see how election coverage was mobilization, governance, and access to information and data. coverage is changing as mobile media built in, or not, as the case may be. She is a leading researcher in increases in popularity. The majority The findings point to a fairly wide the field of open government of Canadians access the Internet via a discrepancy in the design, or archi- and open data. Her recent mobile device. Today, 68% of Canadi- publications include (with A. tecture, of the apps. Of the four, The Clarke), “What’s in a name? ans use smartphones and that number Globe and Mail was the only app to Questioning the homogeneity is projected to rise. Tablets are also have a built in button, or explicit cat- of ‘open government’ programs becoming commonplace and are now egory, for Election 2015 in its regular across seven countries,” Journal used by over half of Canadians with of e-Democracy and Open menu. The architecture of La Presse+ Government 6, no.1 (2014). Internet access. News consumption is is such that its menu changes daily, one of the top five activities of tablet but the election was not a category in @maryfrancoli users in Canada. Media consumption the two weeks prior to the election. Maryfrancoli.com habits have changed so significantly However, it does have a news feed, that Montreal-based daily La Presse En Direct, which had a regular menu announced plans to stop its print edi- featuring the election on a daily tion with the exception of Saturday, basis. There was no clear location for noting that its tablet subscriptions are election-­specific coverage for either doubled its print subscriptions. the Star Touch app or for The National This analysis offers some early insight Post Mobile app. This is not to say the into the question: How was the 2015 content was not there, but it was more federal election presented in mobile sporadically built into other general media? It looks at the freely available categories. news apps of four major daily papers An analysis of the content found on in Canada: The Toronto Star’s Star the apps in the two weeks preceding Touch, The Globe and Mail’s Globe and the election points to some correlation Mail, The ’s National Post between architecture and content. Mobile, and La Presse’s La Presse +. The Globe and Mail’s app was the only Content of each of the four apps was app to build a category for the election

Election Content on Four ­Major News Apps (October 5 to 18, 2015)

The Globe and Mail La Presse+ National Post Mobile Star Touch Total election content 803 (33%) 201 (12%) 258 (10%) 150 (12%)

Unique election content 285 (12%) 165 (9%) 111 (4%) 145 (11%)

Total app content (n) 2429 (100%) 1741 (100%) 2551 (100%) 1303 (100%)

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 64 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Mobile News: The 2015 Election via News Apps

directly into its menu. As can be seen of app architecture. Design has the in the table below, it also had a dra- potential to influence what users learn matically higher total percentage of about the election. Those that relied election related content then the other primarily on The Globe and Mail’s app apps. However, it also had the high- during the 2015 federal election had est amount of content that was either content presented to them in a very repeated frequently across days or direct and repetitive manner com- across multiple categories in the app. pared to those who may have turned When looking at percentage of unique to the other apps. Users of any of the content, The Globe and Mail and The apps had varying degrees of election Toronto Star apps are fairly similar. The coverage delivered to them in a format Star Touch app, however, presented the that they could read virtually anytime least amount of repeated content. anywhere. However, as the findings indicate, those with a desire to be While similar studies would help to most informed should not rely on one verify the findings, this preliminary source, in this case, one app, alone. analysis does signal the importance

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 65 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Thinking Outside the Box: TV News Broadcasting during the 2015 General Election

The signals that the 2015 general elec- est because they began the leaders’ tion would be different for Canadian tour in August and because it encom- broadcasters were transmitted from passed the entire 11 weeks; a per-week the moment that Parliament was dis- rate was proportionately higher. The solved. TV pool members—CBC/Radio Can- Initially, a single camera operator and ada, CTV, Global, TVA and CPAC—de- producer were sent out to cover the cided to cover the Conservatives with Conservative leader’s tour, the tiniest a single camera operator, capturing of technical crews, working for TV the “head on” shot of the leader for the networks that had pooled their scant first few weeks, expanding to include resources. Meanwhile, the Conserva- a second camera and sound operator Jennifer Ditchburn tive Party announced that it would not later. The use of new technology, spe- cifically the portable, Canadian-made Senior Parliamentary participate in “consortium” debates Correspondent traditionally organized and broadcast Dejero transmitter, enabled networks The Canadian Press by the main national TV networks, to further cover the tour without always relying on satellite trucks and Jennifer Ditchburn is the 2015 choosing to negotiate with new play- recipient of the Charles Lynch ers instead. Throughout the cam- their crews. As for journalists, only Award for outstanding coverage paign, the legacy broadcasters contin- the CBC/Radio-Canada and CTV sent a of national affairs and a three- ued experimenting with new ways to national political reporter regularly on time National Newspaper Award the road with the leaders while other winner. She is co-editor (with captivate their fragmented audiences Graham Fox) of the upcoming while facing an ever-widening field of networks sent in regional represen- book The Harper Factor, to be competitors (journalistic and political) tatives when the campaigns swung published by McGill-Queen’s in the digital sphere. within reach of their bureaus. University Press (2016). Her analysis of the coverage of These shifts are all part of an election For decades, media critics have scruti- leaders’ tours during campaigns campaign that saw the broadcast news nized the homogenous coverage of the was recently published: media in a period of transition and leaders’ tour and how it siphons away “Reporting on Elections,” The attention from issues that are impor- Informed Citizens’ Guide to evolution. Innovation is a necessity Elections: Electioneering Based for an industry that is under incred- tant to voters. The Conservative Party’s on the Rule of Law, Special Issue, ible economic pressure with dispersed particular control of where camera Journal of Parliamentary and operators can roam and how many Political Law (2015). publics and declining ad revenues. The industry is also responding to an- questions Stephen Harper would @jenditchburn other kind of pressure linked inextri- answer in a day (four national, one lo- cably to political marketing—a party cal), in the name of political message fixation with news management that discipline, has caused even more soul places stifling limits on journalists. searching. Is this truly the best way to tell the story of an election campaign, The economic reality for broadcasters particularly when parties themselves (for all news media for that matter), are live broadcasting events using manifested itself in how they decided social media? to cover the leaders’ tours, which are normally the centrepiece of the tradi- The skeleton TV crews on the leaders’ tional media’s coverage of an election tour left broadcasters with room to campaign. The total cost of roughly explore other, more citizen-centred $50,000-$70,000 per person per cam- options for covering the election paign (before taxes) to join a leader’s campaign. Some of the broadcasters tour was staggering. The Conservative significantly beefed up their online Party’s rate of $70,000 was the high- offering, with tools and content spe- cifically designed to help voters sort

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 66 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Thinking Outside the Box: TV News Broadcasting during the 2015 General Election

through party policies. Global ran a 2019. Obsessive reporting on public regular “Reality Check” segment to opinion polls sucked up journalistic test out the claims of leaders and also resources and broadcast minutes that sent three national reporters across could have been spent delving deeper the country to do feature stories on into policy issues, informing voters, policy issues and on interesting rid- and holding politicians account- ing battles. CBC’s The National ran a able—important democratic roles nightly feature on individual voters that political journalists fulfil. If the and their preoccupations. CPAC did a broadcasting system is supposed to laudable job talking to candidates and support the “enhancement of national voters in 69 ridings. The Aboriginal identity,” as per the Broadcasting Act, Peoples Television Network (APTN) an assessment is required of whether featured extensive campaign cover- the five national debates held during age, including town halls on First Na- this campaign reached enough Ca- tions issues with the Liberal, NDP, and nadians. Finally, broadcasters should Green party leaders. consider whether they took enough Campaign 2015 also saw the first advantage of the dollars saved by not real forays into election coverage covering the leaders’ tours (or sending by new digital broadcasters. When fewer reporters) and adequately cover the Conservatives pulled out of the critical policy issues that Canadians consortium debates, YouTube/Google keep saying they care about—health Canada stepped into the vacuum by care, for one. Did reporters interact transmitting debates organized by with enough individual citizens, both Maclean’s magazine and The Globe and in person and through social media? Mail. This gradual detaching from The Syrian refugee crisis proved that the tightly scripted and controlled the broadcast news media can focus leaders’ tours (even if it was out of squarely on what audiences care financial necessity), plus the input of about, and force Canadian politicians new broadcast players, is cause for to respond, rather than the other way optimism that campaign coverage is around. breaking out of the old box. Still, there’s plenty to reflect on before the next scheduled federal election in

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 67 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Leaders’ Debates in a Post-Broadcast Democracy

The 2015 federal campaign not only more time for duelling instead of open showed that Canadian television net- debate among all participants. This works are less authoritative than they format differentiated TVA’s debate once were, it also highlighted the lack from the one held by Radio-Canada of balance between the various inter- (September 24). Québecor’s news ests of the media and political par- media heavily promoted it as the most ties on the one hand and the value of revealing format. democratic citizenship on the other. Second, new stakeholders made pro- The leaders’ debates were once unique posals to the parties, in competition moments during which otherwise with those of the English-language competing networks joined forces media of the consortium. Following Frédérick Bastien to hold appealing campaign events. lengthy discussions over these de- Assistant Professor, Département In 2015, these encounters between bates that went public well before the de science politique, and Associate leaders reached fewer citizens. The election call, the Conservative Party Director, Centre for the Study of benefit of leaders’ debates to Canadian announced, in May 2015, its prefer- Democratic Citizenship democracy has declined. Université de Montréal ence for these new proposals. The Aside from minor changes in each parties eventually agreed to take part Frédérick Bastien’s research campaign, Canada’s television net- in debates held by Maclean’s (August focuses on the mediatization of politics, political journalism, work consortium (CBC, CTV, Global, 6), The Globe and Mail (September 17) and online technologies. He Radio-Canada, and TVA) has typically and the (September has published on politics broadcast two televised debates—one 28). Publicity for these debates was in- and infotainment television in each official language—in every creased through online streaming on programs (Tout le monde en regarde!, Presses de l’Université federal campaign since 1984. These these organizations’ websites or mo- Laval, 2013) and he was the were attractive events that had large bile apps, in addition to partnerships lead editor of Les Québécois aux audiences and significant impacts on with certain cable channels, especially urnes: les partis, les médias et les citizens’ assessment of the leaders, CPAC (a channel that focuses mostly citoyens en campagne (Presses de 1 l’Université de Montréal, 2013). vote intention, and vote choice. on parliamentary activities, similar to The 2015 campaign broke with this 30- C-SPAN in the United States). This was @fbastien_compol year tradition. Five leaders’ debates— a striking departure from the tradi- two in English, two in French, and one tional broadcasting strategy. bilingual—were held by separate orga- These English-language debates clear- nizations. These changes occurred be- ly challenged the authoritative voice cause of pressures from corporate and of the largest Canadian television party interests. Furthermore, political networks. More importantly, however, posturing resulted in the leaders of that they were not simultaneously the Green and Bloc Québécois parties broadcast on CBC, CTV, and Global not being invited to most debates, and significantly diminished their appeal. to some other debates not proceeding. For instance, Maclean’s claimed that First, Québecor-owned TVA decided 4.3 million Canadians tuned in for its to leave the consortium and invite the debate, of whom 3.8 million watched party leaders to its own debate (Oc- on the cable networks CPAC, City TV, tober 2), the format of which allowed and OMNI, with an average audience of 1.5 million. By ­comparison, the 2011

1 For instance: Richard Johnston et al., Letting the People Decide: The Dynamics of a Canadian Election, Montréal, McGill-Queen’s University Press, 1992; André Blais and Martin Boyer, “Assessing the Impact of Televised Debates: The Case of the 1988 Canadian Election,” British Journal of Political Science 26, no.2, 1996: 143-164; André Blais et al., “Campaign Dynamics in the 2000 Canadian Election: How the Leader Debates Salvaged the Conservative Party,” PS: Political Science & Politics 36, no.1, 2003: 45-50; André Blais and Andrea M. L. Perrella, “Systemic Effects of Televised Leaders’ Debates,” The International Journal of Press/Politics 13, no.4, 2008: 451-464.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 68 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Leaders’ Debates in a Post-Broadcast Democracy

English-language debate attracted As a consequence, in a high-choice 10.6 million viewers, with an average media environment, a substantial pro- per-minute audience of 3.85 million. portion of citizens have lower political The Globe and Mail and Munk debates knowledge and are less likely to vote were broadcast only on CPAC and on election day than in a low-choice online. one.2 Markus Prior’s award-winning book While the traditional format of the Post-Broadcast Democracy presents leaders’ debates would not have fully evidence that once freed from the counteracted this phenomenon, it is programming schedule of the TV net- conceivable that Canadian democratic works (thanks to cable TV and Inter- citizenship has suffered from the net), citizens are more likely to switch failure of the consortium to gather to programs that more closely match the party leaders for a debate with a their preferences. Political junkies potentially much larger viewership. expose themselves to much more Media stakeholders and political information on public affairs than parties will always fight for their own previously, but most citizens switch to interests, but who will stand up for more entertaining shows. citizenship?

2. Markus Prior, Post-Broadcast Democracy: How Media Choice Increases Inequality in Political Involvement and Polarizes Elections (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2007).

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 69 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The “New Normal” of Mediatization and Narrowcasting

There is a heavily mediatized “new tion 2015 epitomized market logic. normal” of campaign politics in By staging an extra-long campaign, Canada. On September 30, 2015, the avoiding the traditional debate format Conservative Party of Canada issued in favour of a series of narrow-casted a press release pledging to double specialized debates, exercising an ex- Canada’s panda population by 2016. traordinary level of message control, The party offered a photo of leader adapting their messages to social- Stephen Harper and his wife, Laureen, media platforms, and embracing key Shannon Sampert snuggling with one of the cuddly elements of the permanent campaign, mammals. The pledge, complete with the Conservatives’ efforts have come Perspectives and Politics Editor Winnipeg Free Press photo, was delivered straight into the to epitomize a “new normal” for elec- laps of voters by major news organiza- tioneering. Shannon Sampert is the first tions across the country, including The woman in the over 140-year This is problematic for democracy. history of the Free Press to be Globe and Mail, CTV, and the Ottawa The emphasis of political parties and responsible for the opinion Citizen. With the ready-made photo-op the media on simple and narrow con- pages. She was also responsible and sky-high cute factor, how could cepts is a shift away from informing for organizing political coverage the media resist punning about the during this election campaign. and engaging voters at a deeper and She has published extensively “Conservatives playing panda poli- more substantive level. During elec- on media, politics, and gender. tics,” and “pandering to the elector- tion campaigns, parties and news or- She is also an associate ate?” ganizations are more focused on spin- professor of political science at the Then there was an announcement ning and framing than on fostering (currently on leave). from Liberal leader Justin Trudeau democratic dialogue and debate. As that his party was providing tax such, mediatization denudes political @paulysigh breaks for teachers who use their own discourse of substantive attention to money to buy school supplies. Mean- policy ideas and programmatic differ- Linda Trimble while the NDP promised Canadians ences. In its stead, voters are offered Professor, Political Science fifteen-dollar-a-day daycare. All of ephemeral narratives about leader- Department these campaign promises and poli- ship, strength, hope and change. University of Alberta cies are examples of how focused and Consider the campaign slogans of the Linda Trimble has been targeted the messages increasingly opposition parties. While the NDP was analyzing women’s are, all pledged with an eye toward “ready for change,” the Liberals guar- representation in Canadian governments and media re-election, and packaged in a manner anteed “real change.” Both of them representations of women that makes it easy for news organiza- pitched to the mythical middle class, politicians since 1989. She tions to reproduce the material at little a catch-all category constructed to has two major projects in the expense. include most Canadians. At the same works right now. One is a book on news coverage of women That the major political parties some- time, all three major parties presented prime ministers in Australia, times adopted bizarre sales pitches to boutique policy announcements that Canada, and New Zealand, and attract attention during the campaign had little to do with the overall public the other examines The Globe good and everything to do with get- and Mail coverage of Canadian is not surprising. In a mediatized party leadership candidates. political environment, the practice of ting elected. Shannon Sampert and Linda politics is embedded within a media Mediatization in this election cam- Trimble have recently authored, with Angelia Wagner and Bailey frame, shaped by market logic. Market paign was assisted greatly by mi- Gerrits, “Jumping the Shark: logic is all about buying and selling, crotargeting, the use of data mining Mediatization of Canadian Party and in the electoral context, political to determine pockets of support Leadership Contests, 1975— parties are selling products to vot- available for wooing with specific 2012,” Journalism Practice 8, no. 3 (2014). ers. To get their message across they policy announcements. It is why package their policies in the form of service-club memberships became a @trimblePoli information subsidies to the media. tax credit promise from the Conserva- The Conservative strategy for Elec- tives. Who belongs to service clubs?

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 70 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The “New Normal” of Mediatization and Narrowcasting

­Predominantly people over the age Quebec in a move away from the NDP of 45, entrepreneurs, urbanites with while consolidating the Conservative long-term roots in their community— base of support. And when looking at target demographics that turn out to the overall polling numbers, the Con- vote. servative base remained strong. What The Conservatives used microtarget- they did not count on was a coalesc- ing on their way to victory in 2011, ing of support to move from the NDP increasing their number of seats in to the Liberals; an inability to grow vote-rich by Ontario in particular. beyond their core support; and many In 2015, all three parties practiced Canadians’ preference for hope, opti- microtargeting with their own data- mism and compared to the more base systems. Information captured divisive nature of market segmenta- on the ground from volunteers armed tion that casts some aside. with little more than a smartphone The “new normal” is bound to infect and an app was integrated with campaign style from now on, not least intelligence gathered by the central by shifting the emphasis from norma- campaign. This was used to match tive logic (informing and engaging electors with policy promises and to voters) to market logic (selling leaders send targeted messages by email and and shopping for votes). New technol- social media, bypassing the filter of ogy allows parties to target untapped the mainstream media. pockets of support in a bid to get more Mediatization and microtargeting votes. Increasingly the win will go to help explain why Stephen Harper the war room with the best generic and his party pushed the niqab issue. “feel good” message and the strongest It was designed to polarize voters in data set.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 71 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Shopping For Votes: A Sequel?

In the political marketplace described to wear face coverings at citizenship in my 2013 book Shopping for Votes: ceremonies. Nor were consumer con- How Politicians Choose Us and We cerns top of mind when a young boy’s Choose Them, Canada’s 42nd federal body turned up on a beach halfway election traded in two currencies— around the world and the campaign’s dollars and change. The resounding conversation turned to the subject of majority victory for Justin Trudeau Canada’s policy on Syrian refugees. and the Liberals would seem to be evi- Most importantly, perhaps, the voting dence that change was more power- results were widely interpreted as a ful than dollars, and that voters went demand for a change in tone at the to the ballot box as more than just top of the Canadian government. “I Susan Delacourt wallet-conscious consumers. think our obvious weakness has been Senior Writer Conservative leader Stephen Harper in tone, in the way we’ve often com- The Toronto Star had tried, in the final week of the municated our messages,” outgoing Conservative cabinet minister Jason Susan Delacourt has been campaign, to reframe the election as a covering politics on Parliament consumer choice—notably by punc- Kenney said on election night. Hill since the late 1980s and has tuating his final appearances with the All this said, the latest election in written four books about people and events in Canadian politics. pinging sound of a cash register and Canada did build on many of the mar- Her latest book, Shopping for wads of cash laid on a table. At the ketplace tools and tactics highlighted Votes (Douglas & McIntyre, big Toronto rally on the last Saturday in Shopping for Votes. Conservatives re- 2013), about how marketing has before voting day, featuring former lied heavily on advertising, including changed Canadian political life, was a finalist for the Writers’ mayor and his brother Doug an eleventh-hour purchase of front- Trust/Hilary Weston prize in Ford, the main Conservative message page-wrap ads across the Postmedia Canadian non-fiction. Susan revolved around value for dollars. “I’ll and Sun newspaper chains. Trudeau also teaches political journalism tell ya, Rob came up with this phrase, and the Liberals used advertising in and communication at Carleton University in Ottawa, is a but nothing I can remember in a sometimes novel ways, turning the writer at iPolitics, and appears federal election is any more important Conservatives’ “just not ready” ads regularly on CBC, CTV, and than respect for taxpayers,” into an “I’m ready” rebuttal. The Liber- Global TV. told the crowd before Harper spoke. al campaign was also highly attentive @susandelacourt As it turned out, though, Canadians to imagery. One of the final Liberal did seem to have issues beyond the old campaign ads featured Trudeau on a “pocketbook” or “taxpayer” concerns stage in , rallying support in in this election. a style reminiscent of the Molson’s “I A poll by Abacus Data, conducted for am Canadian” ads of the . Others Macleans magazine, was released on might have been reminded of former the same weekend as the Ford rally. US president Ronald Reagan’s “Morn- It showed that though the economy ing in America” ads of the 1980s. was the top issue for a little more than All of the parties put new digital and one-third of the respondents, a full data management tools to extensive 47% said their vote decision would use, especially in get-out-the-vote be based on “values” or a desire for efforts. The surge in voter turnout at change. advance polls—a 70% rise over 2011— Voters didn’t seem to be thinking may well be traced to the parties’ about themselves as consumers when increased sophistication in identify- the election wandered into the peril- ing and mobilizing support through ous territory of the niqab, and whether those databases well in advance of the Muslim women should be allowed official election day. The nearly 70% figure in overall turnout may also be

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 72 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Shopping For Votes: A Sequel?

an indication that Canadian political parties are putting their data tools to good, democratic use. Everyone looks for value when shop- , even when “shopping for votes.” But Canada’s 42nd election is evidence that voters assess value in many ways; in dollars and change.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 73 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Letting the Press Decide? Party Coverage, Media Tone, and Issue Salience in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election Newsprint

In many ways, election campaigns are eroded through September and struggles by parties to get their mes- October. This advantage is typical for sages across to the electorate through incumbent parties who tend to serve the media. In fact, modern electoral as the reference point for campaigns campaigns are largely media-driven and who also enjoy the prominence affairs with the press serving as a con- associated with being in government. duit for information about everything Mirroring the dynamics seen in daily from polling information to substan- polling data, the Liberal Party trailed tive policy discussions. Especially dur- both the Conservatives and New ing elections perceived to be close, the Democratic Party in news coverage press spends an enormous amount of until the late days of the campaign Denver McNeney time and effort focusing on politics. when the Liberal take-off began. As Canadians, for their part, consume the change vote began to coalesce Ph.D. Candidate, Centre for the this media in large numbers. Study of Democratic Citizenship around the Liberals, they garnered McGill University This is why we decided to quantify and about twice the news coverage in the Denver McNeney’s work focuses explore the nature of newsprint cover- late days of the campaign as they had on political partisanship, age of the 2015 election from the time received weeks earlier. political interest, and the role of of the writ drop through to the end of the media to better understand the campaign. Data for this analysis While the Conservative Party may the processes of democratic comes from an original database of have received the lion’s share of accountability. Recent news coverage, the question remains work includes (with J.Scott 5,078 newsprint articles concerning Matthews), “’We Like This’: the political parties and 6,728 articles whether this coverage was positive or The Impact of News Websites’ about three of the major issues of negative in nature. This question is Consensus Information on the 2015 campaign: the niqab, the answered by examining media tone, Political Attitudes” in Political which is a simple count of the num- Communication in Canada (UBC economy, and the Syrian refugee Press, 2014). crisis. Collected between August 4 and ber of positive words in each article October 18, 2015, these data allow for subtracted by the number of negative @DenverMc an in-depth and granular analysis of words (based on the Lexicoder Senti- www.dmcneney.com the campaign as seen through the lens ment Dictionary) and divided by the of the media.1 total number of words. Figure 1 tracks the percentage of Using this measure, Figure 2 shows articles per day that first mention a the Conservative Party’s advantage in particular party. While simple, the news prominence was largely offset by party first mentioned in each article is the negativity of this coverage. In fact, a powerful proxy for the central focal with the exception of the first days of point of that article. In short, articles the campaign, Conservatives trailed about the Liberals will, more often the Liberals and NDP in average tone than not, begin by mentioning that in every subsequent day of the cam- party. paign. As Figure 1 shows, the Conservative Largely mirroring the trends seen Party enjoyed a substantial advan- in media prominence, the Liberals tage in news coverage to begin the and NDP appear to be fairly indistin- campaign, and that coverage slowly guishable until the late stages of the campaign. However, as Liberal Party

1 Articles sourced from , , Regina Leader-Post, The Globe and Mail, The Toronto Star, and .

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 74 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Letting the Press Decide? Party Coverage, Media Tone, and Issue Salience in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election Newsprint

coverage became more prominent during their take-off, it also became more positive. While some may view these trends in media tone as evidence of or undue influence, it is important to remem- ber that the media react quickly to the shifting moods of the campaigns and to opinion leaders throughout the electorate. In this way, the dynamics seen here may simply be because of journalists effectively sniffing out the underlying trends that were unfolding independent of any media influence. Finally, it is worthwhile to explore the salience of the various issues that sprung up throughout the campaign (Figure 3). Perhaps unsurprising considering Canadi- ans’ focus on the economy throughout the campaign, the economy held the largest share of the media’s attention with the exception of a period in mid-September when a shocking image of a drowned Syr- ian toddler elevated coverage of the Syrian refugee crisis. Interestingly, the Conserva- tive Party’s use of the niqab as a campaign wedge issue is strikingly clear in the data. The niqab received no substantive cover- age until September 10 when it began to steadily rise through to the end of the cam- paign. Of note, comparing Figures 2 and 3 suggests a corresponding decrease in the tone of Conservative coverage as the niqab debate gained prominence. For a campaign that will perhaps best be remembered for a strong change vote that vacillated between opposition parties, the present analysis fits neatly with the post-election narratives offered by pundits and political scientists alike regarding a late-campaign Liberal take-off. Whether this is evidence of a media effect during the campaign or simply an attentive press capturing the natural evolution of the campaign is ultimately up to one’s own interpretation of the role of the media in Canadian democracy.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 75 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Political Science Professor and the Media

The 2015 election was when I truly media commentary we can extend committed to public commentary. For the democratic conversation that is many years the thought of a journalist integral to an engaged and informed calling me for observations on some citizenry. aspect of Canadian politics struck There are obvious challenges to what me with fear. I was worried about I have set out above. The broadcaster’s sounding incompetent by missing a short interview timeframe sets a trap key fact, or saying something offhand for making obvious and banal obser- that would end up in print or on TV. vations. I noted several times during I’m not alone among my academic the campaign that it was a “tight three colleagues reluctant to immerse way race.” I’m not sure a PhD was a Anna Esselment ourselves in public discourse. Where prerequisite for that sort of analysis. we tend to be long winded, providing Assistant Professor, Political Another issue is the time required for Science context and nuance to our thoughts media interviews. I, for one, will not University of Waterloo and arguments, the media require go into an interview unprepared. I re- succinct and snappy analysis. Not the Anna Esselment has published quest questions in advance, consider on issues of federalism and greatest strength of most scholars. them carefully, and set out the points intergovernmental relations, Three factors changed my mind about I want to deliver to Canadians on that political marketing, and engaging with the media this time subject. Relatedly, some interviews permanent campaigning in Canada. Her most recent around. The first is that 75% of com- require that you be in a studio. Thus publications include “The mentary in Canada is from a male per- travel and set-up time must be con- Governing Party and the spective. This is according to Informed sidered. The time requirement has a Permanent Campaign” in Opinions, a non-profit organization third aspect: once you have appeared Political Communication in Canada (UBC Press, 2014) dedicated to encouraging women to on TV or radio, and the producers hap- and “Designing Campaign offer their analysis and views on sub- pen to like you, you can be inundated Platforms,” The Informed jects within their area of expertise. As with requests to appear again. While Citizens’ Guide to Elections: a female scholar, I feel an obligation the opportunities to contribute to the Electioneering Based on the Rule of Law, Special Issue, to help shift this disparity. Second, public debate are frequent, being able Journal of Parliamentary and the advent of digital communication to do so without it having a deleteri- Political Law (2015). technologies and a 24-hour news ous effect on your time with students @alesselm cycle requires thoughtful insight to or on your own scholarship is a signifi- uwaterloo.ca/political-science/ balance what is on offer from politi- cant consideration. We also shouldn’t people-profiles/anna-esselment cians and political insiders who, in my be naïve enough to think that our view, are more than happy to fill the commentary will somehow rise above airwaves and with what the fray and influence public opinion is primarily partisan spin. Persuad- or policy making. With thousands of ing the public in opinion formation is voices, ours is only one of many. But a legitimate endeavour, but one that unlike our books or journal articles, should be countered with objective often read by only a handful of fellow understanding from academics. The academics, media reach is exponen- final factor is my sense of responsibil- tially wider. ity to the wider public. We know that These challenges aside, I have learned many Canadians have little knowledge a few things about the relationship or interest in politics. Part of my job, between the professor and the media. both inside and outside the classroom, I have found that journalists are not is to extend knowledge and spark generally combative or adversarial but interest in Canadian politics, even if it are instead interested in your insight can be a struggle to explain a complex and expertise to help their audi- issue in an accessible way. Through ences understand a political issue or

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 76 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Political Science Professor and the Media

­problem. Print journalists in particu- radio programs and should never feel lar will take time to talk with you, ask pressured to comment on areas out- you questions, and think about your side our expertise. Opinion editorials, explanations on the subject about for example, are often better venues which they are writing, and solid, for scholars to set out an analysis professional connections can result. in a way that allows for nuance and Accommodations regarding the time context. requirement can also be made. Meth- My media experiences during the 2015 ods of communication are such that campaign have shown me that I can giving an interview over FaceTime or simplify, explain, and help Canadians Skype, from the comfort of your own understand issues of politics. I may home or office, is increasingly popu- occasionally miss key facts, and I often lar. At the same time we must remem- wish I could rephrase an answer, but ber that choosing when to engage in the democratic conversation is what public commentary, and how, remains matters. Consequently we should, as our own. We do not owe anything to scholars, be keen contributors. the producers of 24-hour networks or

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 77 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Party Leader’s Image and Brand Management: Party Branding and Negative Ads in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election

The 2015 Canadian federal election the official campaigns) in favour of brought a deluge of visual imagery. focusing on the core visual narrative The main political parties spent presented through the main parties’ millions of dollars producing and attack ads. Volumes could be written disseminating political advertising, on the efficacy of negative advertis- before and during the writ period. The ing, and in this campaign the three campaigns also carefully attempted largest parties (Conservative, Liberal, to stage-manage video clips NDP) all aired ads that assaulted the captured by the media of their leader’s ethical character or competence of tour, while at the same time coping their opponent, although the Liberals with the infusion of visual imagery relied less on this approach and their Jeff MacLeod external to their campaigns. Any attacks were less abrasive. Initially, one of these visual elements has the the most poignant negative ad was the Associate Professor and Chair, Political and Canadian Studies capability to assist or destroy a party’s Conservatives’ “just not ready” missive Mount Saint Vincent University campaign. launched against Liberal leader Justin Trudeau. It featured a group sitting Jeff MacLeod’s scholarship The ability of a visual image to explores arts-based methods evoke a political narrative is hardly around a table conducting a mock of inquiry within the context a contested concept. Noted political performance review of Trudeau’s file. of standard political science. scientist Murray Edelman showed The actors commented that Trudeau Journals in which his work has lacked experience to be prime min- been published include The that visual art does not just describe Canadian Journal of Political political content, it creates it. How- ister but allowed that “he has nice Science, Mythlore (Tolkien ever, as Edelman points out, there is hair”—seemingly a reference to his studies), Healthcare Papers, no “immaculate perception:” visual youthful, handsome appearance. This Canadian Parliamentary Review, ad and other allied framing weakened and International Journal of objects (e.g. campaign advertising, the the Image. His most recent leaders’ tour, etc.) derive their power the image of the Liberal leader in the publication is “Tolkien’s Art from pre-existing narratives. More- early part of the campaign. However, and Politics: Is Middle-earth over, these narratives need refreshed the Liberals were able to counter this Real?” The Artifice (June, 2015). narrative with their own “ready” ads MacLeod is also an active visual visual imagery in order to have a base artist. of cultural support (see MacLeod and as well as an assist from the NDP who Webb 2011; Edelman 1995). offered their version of the perfor- @ highlandheart68 mance review ad which asserted that In the case of the 2015 election, the vi- Stephen Harper too had “nice hair,” sual imagery of the leaders’ tour from but it was “time to let him go.” NDP all of the campaigns pictured the party leader Thomas Mulcair and Prime leader surrounded by supporters. One Minister Stephen Harper sparred CBC article described them as “pot- with each other through their par- ted plants” accented with the party’s ties’ negative ads, but it was Trudeau brand colour (Conservative/blue; Lib- who faced the brunt of the Conserva- eral/red; NDP/orange; Green/green). tive offensive. But, by the end of the In addition, all of the parties framed campaign, Trudeau had effectively the majority of their paid advertising vanquished the notion that he wasn’t with their party hue and the leader’s ready through his performance in the image. From a marketing perspective, televised leaders’ debates, through the parties’ brands and leaders were effective ads which presented a visual fused, at least in visual terms. narrative expressing his readiness, This very brief treatment ignores and through positive news coverage. some potent external imagery (pub- I assert that the failure of the Conser- lished outside the direct control of vative approach was due to a design

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 78 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Party Leader’s Image and Brand Management: Party Branding and Negative Ads in the 2015 Canadian Federal Election

flaw in the initial attack. Visually, an he was competent enough for the job, tends to show the target and in the early days of the campaign leader with their brand colour dark- it was becoming a liability. In the end, ened or removed and an unflattering the Liberal Party was able to produce likeness, often rendered in murky potent visual imagery in their paid ad- grey-tones; yet, the Conservative vertising and during the leader’s tour. ad features a full-colour, flatter- Their campaign effectively neutered ing picture of Trudeau. This picture the opposition attacks and enabled contradicts the text of the commer- Trudeau to forge a narrative that con- cial. Indeed, if you turn the sound off vinced enough Canadians that he was this ad can almost be read as a pro- capable of leading a new government. Trudeau ad. In sum, the visual narrative of this REFERENCE campaign mirrored the textual one: it Edelman, Murray. From Art to Politics: How was largely a referendum on Harper. Artistic Creations Shape Political Conceptions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995. In other aspects it was a referendum on Trudeau’s image and his party’s MacLeod, Jeffrey and Nick Webb. “Imagery as Political Action,” International Journal of the brand, as well as on Mulcair’s image. IMAGE 1, no.2 (2011): 69-82. In part, Trudeau’s physical appear- ance became shorthand for whether

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 79 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Political Advertising in the 2015 Election

The 2015 Canadian election will be While parties spend money on adver- remembered for a number of rea- tising leading up to an election, over sons, not the least of which is the role the four contests prior to 2015, they in- played by advertising. While we won’t creased their advertising buys during know for some time how much the the official campaign period. Chart 2 parties spent on the campaign or ad- shows that there has been an upward vertising, the die was cast well before trend devoting resources to advertis- the election was called. Party elec- ing. The growth was greatest for the tion advertising is a continuation of NDP and the Conservatives. non-election advertising and we can see that the three national political Jonathan Rose parties spent increasing amounts over the last three years (see Chart 1). Associate Professor, Department of Political Studies Queen’s University

Jonathan Rose teaches political communication and Canadian politics at Queen’s. He has written on the role of advertising both in elections by political parties and between elections by government. Since 2004, Jonathan has been a member of the Ontario Auditor General’s Advertising Review It is not just the amount spent that is panel that reviews Ontario government advertising. His noticeable, but the growing impor- recent publications include tance of advertising in the parties’ Political parties begin advertising well “Television Advertising and overall expenditures. In the last three before the election is called. This is its Impact on Campaigning elections, all parties but the NDP de- and Elections” (co-written readily apparent in each of the last voted at least 50% of their campaign with Tim Abray), Journal of three years. (The seemingly anom- Parliamentary and Political Law budget to advertising. If the three alous Liberal and NDP amounts in (Spring 2015) and When Citizens’ parties spent their allowable limit of 2012 can be explained by the fact that Decide: Lessons From Citizens’ $50 million in the 2015 election, and Assemblies, co-written with the Liberals had no money after the they follow the previous pattern of André Blais, R. Kenneth Carty, 2011 election and that the NDP chose Patrick Fournier and Henk van devoting at least 50% to advertising, Thomas Mulcair as leader in 2012 and der Kolk (Oxford University then we can assume that they spent were eager to have him not framed Press, 2011). more than $25 million in this election in the same way as the Conservatives on advertising—a considerable jump @jonathanrose framed Stéphane Dion.) This pre-elec- from the previous campaigns. Jonathanrose.ca tion period is significant as it allows parties to begin priming voters on It’s clear that political parties believe themes that they deem important. in advertising. They use it before an For the Conservatives, the “just not election to prime and during an elec- ready” ads began; for the Liberals, it tion to reinforce their message. Like was about change and hope; and for all campaigns, this one was marked the NDP it was around judgment and by negative advertising as well as experience. Pre-writ tests showed that upbeat, positive ads. Many scholars while the Conservatives spent more believe that negative advertising on advertising in this period, it was works because it motivates voters and the NDP that was more effective. is easily recalled. For these scholars,

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 80 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Political Advertising in the 2015 Election

while advertising may not be good for traditional view is that the Liberals democracy, it is a strong motivator for should have ignored it. The Liberals voting (Geer 2006). Ads are persua- did not and its “ready” ad, which re- sive if they resonate; they resonate if sponded directly to the Conservative’s they make strong emotional appeals, negative ad, was one of the most suc- which are usually negative. Anger cessful and persuasive ads in the elec- and fear are stronger motivators than tion according to Innovative Research. positive emotions, such as enthusi- Another novelty of this campaign was asm, pride, and compassion. The 2015 the reliance on radio by all three par- campaign was notable because most ties in the last week of the campaign. of the negative ads were by the Con- This was done to mobilize their sup- servatives and played on instilling fear porters to vote. The Conservatives did that an untested new leader, Justin something no party has ever done and Trudeau, was not worth the risk. The had a series of new radio ads each day most honest thing one can say about at the end of the campaign. Each one ads of all sorts is that some work, ended with “I’m Stephen Harper. Let’s some of the time, on some people, and talk tomorrow.” This unprecedented that advertising effect is short term if campaign speaks to the importance at all. The Conservative ads this elec- the Conservatives put on mobilizing tion were marked by messages that their vote as well as the resources that resonated with voters as “anxious” or they had devoted for the last week of “angry” over “hopeful” according to the campaign. Innovative Research. The other parties In conclusion, though Canada’s mostly ran positive ads that played on political parties likely spent more on “hopeful” over the negative emotions advertising during this election than of “anxious” or “angry.” any other one in Canadian history, the The advertising legacy of this cam- ad campaign began well before the paign will be not only the amount of election got underway. The election money spent by parties but also some ads tell us much about the triumph of violations of the norms around cam- positive over negative ads, the wisdom paign advertising. One of the cardinal of responding to those attacks, and rules of advertising is not to reply to perhaps, a revival of radio as a persua- negative attacks. So when the Conser- sive medium. vatives ran its “just not ready” ad, the

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 81 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Trudeau as Celebrity Politician: Winning by More than a Hair

Acting simultaneously as Prime gies and experts. His rebellious and Minister of Canada and leader of the young persona fit nicely with his wide Conservative Party, Stephen Harper progressive legislative reforms. By was able to get the jump on framing association, Trudeau Jr. inherits a ce- election themes for voters. This elec- lebrity status that potentially provides tion, he said, would focus on serious the foundation for a political family issues—international threats of eco- dynasty, like the Kennedys in the US. nomic collapse and terror—and not Patricia Cormack As leader of the Liberal Party, Justin be a “popularity contest.” Here Harper Trudeau and his advisers carefully Professor, Sociology was implying that some federal party St. Francis Xavier University crafted his image by using his fame, leaders would be offering more celeb- family, and personal history to fit Patricia Cormack has recently rity than substance. the expectations of mass-mediated published (with James. F. Cosgrave) Desiring Canada: Harper’s assertion set the tone for and entertainment driven politics. CBC Contests, Hockey Violence, what we call the Tory “positive attack” His biography, , like and other Stately Pleasures ads that played on Justin Trudeau’s Obama’s Tales From My Father, candid- (University of Toronto Press, celebrity status. These ads were dif- ly depicts his life, with descriptions of 2013). The book discusses how interests of state in Canada ferent from negative ads against other his childhood at , his are supported by way of the candidates in that they made use of romantic relationship with his wife, cultivation of various pleasures personal themes generated by the and how he became a Liberal candi- on the part of citizens. It asks: Liberal Party’s own campaign. They date. The release of this book was also How do everyday pleasures like Tim Hortons coffee, state- played cleverly with the double-edged the occasion for many interviews in controlled gambling, CBC nature of celebrity. A celebrity is the popular media, like Chatelaine hockey, contests, and humour simultaneously special (above every- magazine, allowing Trudeau to dem- all work to cultivate a desire on day life) and ordinary (someone that onstrate both his mastery of popular the part of Canadians for the state mediation of their lives? supporters identify with at an inti- culture codes and his purported com- mate level). Celebritization is a form mon ground with ordinary people. sites.stfx.ca/sociology/people of political communication where During the electoral campaign, politicians’ lives are used to engage multiple images showed Trudeau re- Mireille Lalancette with citizens and voters in a more enacting his father’s memorable photo Associate Professor, Political personal than ideological mode. It ops. Communication both informs political communication Université du Québec à Trois- This all provided the backdrop for the Rivières strategies and encourages politicians Tory ads and discourses that explicitly to use their personal lives to connect questioned the young Liberal leader’s Mireille Lalancette is a with voters. researcher in the Groupe de competence. One repeated ad depict- recherche en communication Justin Trudeau is the oft-­ ed a number of concerned looking politique (GRCP). She recently photographed first child of the citizens (all seemingly old enough to published (with Marie-Josée Drolet and Marie-Ève Caty) stylish Prime Minister Pierre Elliot remember Trudeau Jr. as a child, and a ABC de l’argumentation pour les Trudeau and his young and beauti- major voting demographic) comment- professionnels de la santé ou toute ful wife, Margaret (“Maggie”). Mar- ing that “Justin” is “just not ready” to autre personne qui veut convaincre garet describes herself as the first become Prime Minister. The coup de (Presses de l’Université du Québec, 2015). Her work has Canadian prime minister’s wife to grace comes when one protagonist appeared in the Canadian Journal be “paparazzied,” noting the privacy concludes that Trudeau offers nothing of Communication as well as in accorded to wives who preceded her. more than “nice hair.” several edited books, among Pierre Trudeau swept to power with a them UBC Press’s Political This ad questions Trudeau’s legiti- Communication in Canada: Meet majority Liberal government in 1968 macy using a style over substance the Press and Tweet the Rest as a then dashing bachelor—what the frame, reviving the never-ending (2015). press dubbed . Trudeau debate about image in politics. In fact, Sr. was also famous for his pioneering @MireilleLalance two thousand years ago Plato warned mireillelalancette.com use of modern marketing technolo-

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 82 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Trudeau as Celebrity Politician: Winning by More than a Hair

Athenians about being seduced by the criticized Trudeau’s father during a crafty sophists who used any means televised debate, Trudeau was able to that would win them support. And point out that it was the anniversary while suspicious of its misuse, both of his father’s death, making the oth- Plato and Aristotle argued that poli- ers look cruel. Trudeau took this op- tics is rooted in rhetoric, or the art of portunity to invoke the larger than life public speech, oriented toward reason legacy of his father, listing the Charter and democracy. Hence, the Tories of Rights and Freedoms, bilingualism, used a kind of anti-rhetoric rhetoric to and multi-culturalism among his appeal to voters who do not consider achievements. Ultimately, Trudeau’s themselves as Trudeau emotional fans personality and positive message and are able to see through political- prevailed by generating themes of op- communication tactics. portunity and renewal. There is little evidence that negative As we have seen in 2015, the use of attack ads gain support for the attack- digital technologies during election ing party, but mid-campaign polls campaigns can facilitate the celeb- indicated that the “just not ready” ritization of politics. From now on, campaign—with its somewhat gentler Canadians will have to be attentive theme of prudent Canadians waiting to the use and misuse of celebrity in for Trudeau to gain experience—did campaigns and note that an accusa- have some effect in eroding support tion of celebritization is just another for the Liberals. Tory strategists seem rhetorical tactic in the ongoing play to have hit just the right note. And yet, between opposing political parties. when Tory and NDP leaders directly

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 83 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Blog Is Dead, Long Live the (Micro)Blog! Unpacking Dynamics in Political Blogging during #elxn42

During the 2006 federal election, and simplified ideas than for engag- blogs emerged as influential com- ing in nuanced deliberation due in ponents of the political media envi- part to the short nature of posts, these ronment in Canada. While political media platforms have nonetheless parties and candidates turned to these enabled users to be active politically social media outlets for voter outreach in ways requiring less time and effort. and mobilization, traditional media This trend is intensifying as Internet- and journalists used them for news- enabled mobile devices (e.g. tablets, gathering, reporting, as well as com- smartphones) become an integral part mentary, and members of the public of the daily life of a large and growing used them for self-expression and number of Canadians. These tech- Vincent Raynauld political engagement. nologies, which are well adapted for short-form politics, could expand uses Assistant Professor, Close to a decade later, the situation Communication Studies is radically different. The 2015 fed- of Twitter and comparable social me- Emerson College eral election has been marked by a dia tools for political communication, mobilization, and engagement, in and Vincent Raynauld serves as generalized slowdown of long-form research associate in the Groupe political blogging, which has mani- outside elections. de recherche en communication fested itself through the shortening of Over the last seven years, several stud- politique (GRCP) at Université blog posts, the reduction of blogging ies have shown that political blogs Laval, as academic adviser for the non-profit research frequency (a phenomenon known as have facilitated the quick diffusion of organization Samara, Canada, “slow blogging”), and high levels of digital material that, in some cases, and as member of the France- inactivity on many political blogs. becomes viral. Microblogs further based research network Réseau Conversely, platforms, accelerated this dynamic in ways par- Démocratie Électronique. His areas of research interest and such as Twitter, have gained traction ticularly noticeable during the 2015 publication include political among the public and become popular elections. On one hand, they provided communication, social media, tools for political communication and an outlet for Internet users to quickly research methods, e-politics, participation. There are three inter- broadcast digital content to a mass and journalism. connected factors that are contribut- audience as well as to engage in real- @VincentR ing to reshaping political blogging in time interactions with other users, www.emerson.edu/academics/ Canada: brevity, instantaneity, and especially during politically sensitive faculty-guide/profile/ connectivity. moments such as leaders’ debates vincent-raynauld/3315 Unlike blogs, which can accom- and on election night. Specifically, a modate longer and more elaborate number of Canadians used Twitter to publications, the format of microb- provide instant commentary during logs has caused their users to express the French- and English-language themselves in a brief and condensed televised debates, a practice known as fashion. This was prevalent during live-tweeting. Even Green Party leader the 2015 Canadian federal campaign. Elizabeth May, who was not invited Formal and informal political play- to the Munk debate, posted a string ers used microblogging channels to of tweets in which she shared her circulate large volumes of short-form views on different policy issues, such political information and opinion as as security, foreign policy, and the well as to engage in various forms of environment, as the debate unfolded political action (e.g., fundraising, pro- on stage. On the other hand, microb- moting mobilization events). While logs enable Canadians to access to a better suited for sharing “one-liners” wealth of election-related information

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 84 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Blog Is Dead, Long Live the (Micro)Blog! Unpacking Dynamics in Political Blogging during #elxn42

and opinion through monitoring live frequently narrow interests or objec- microblogging feeds based on dif- tives. Second, and to a lesser degree, ferent criteria, including keywords, microblogs’ internal social interaction , or accounts of specific functionalities, such as @ mentions ­users. and retweets, and the direct messag- Finally, while political blogs are part of ing tool in the case of Twitter, provid- “discrete [hyperlinked and constant- ed individuals and organizations with ly-evolving] ecosystems, the broad- the opportunity to interact with other est of which is the ‘political blogo- users in the context of the campaign, a sphere,’” the structural and functional dynamic that has the potential to yield properties of microblogging sites have political engagement dividends. further boosted levels of content and The practice of political blogging has social connectivity in digital politics. evolved significantly since first mak- First, hashtags were instrumental in ing its mark on the Canadian electoral organizing flows of information and landscape in 2006. This trend is likely social interactions during the 2015 to continue in the future. More im- election. For example, Canadians used mediately, the rise of image and short hashtags referring to a wide range of video-based social media outlets, election-related matters, including such as Instagram and SnapChat, as policy issues (e.g., #C51, #economy), well as the popularization of more geographical locations (e.g., #yyc, visual forms of digital expression (e.g., #QC), events (e.g., #PeeGate, #Duff- memes, emojis) will further transform yTrial), or emotions often expressed the ways in which formal and infor- in a humorous or sarcastic way (e.g., mal political players take part in dif- #GlibandMale, #sohappy), to tailor ferent facets of the electoral process. their information intake based on

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 85 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Did Election 2015 Prove Kim Campbell Wrong?

Former Prime Minister Kim Campbell ing and costing their platforms, often is commonly believed to have said frustrating efforts by some observers during the 1993 federal election what to do much comparative analysis. For many politicos, pundits, and students voters seeking even ad hoc summaries of modern politics may privately of platform promises, third-party web- believe—that campaigns are rarely, based services hosted by Pollenize and if ever, opportunities to have a seri- VoteCompass by Vox Pop Labs, among ous debate over the policy questions others in the mainstream media, were facing new legislators and the core more plentiful this time than in previ- executive. ous federal elections. It is true that campaign promises are Finally, the longer campaign increased Jennifer Robson not subject to the same scrutiny as the demands on leaders’ tours to offer Assistant Professor, Political policy options for a government in not just 37 days of tightly scripted an- Management power. There is little, if any, public nouncements and messaging, but 78 Carleton University attention to which policy is more ef- days’ worth. This should, mathemati- Jennifer Robson teaches courses ficient, which is more equitable, and cally at least, increase the chances in political management, public what, if any, legal or constitutional of two or more parties speaking on policy, and policy research. constraints may apply. In lieu of dis- comparable policy commitments Her active research projects passionate, objective policy analysis, in a given campaign day and being address tax policy, wealth inequality, financial literacy, it seems that voters must learn and forced, by circumstance, to offer some and political management. make choices instead by looking at response or contrast to one another. She is a periodic contributor to one parties’ promises in relation to But this was also the campaign of over Macleans, Canada2020, and the comparable options from competing Institute for Research on Public two dozen resignations of candidates Policy. Prior to joining Carleton, parties. from all parties for various transgres- Jennifer worked in the federal The marathon length of the 2015 fed- sions. Most were captured on social public service, the voluntary sector, and as a political staffer. eral election might have, if only to fill media and some were bizarre. This the airtime, created more chances to was also the campaign that featured @jenniferrobson8 discuss and debate substantive policy a sitting Prime Minister engaging carleton.ca/ issues. There were far more debates repeatedly in a frolicsome interactive politicalmanagement/people/ jennifer-robson/ organized amongst the leaders, stump speech, which may have made including two single-themed debates him seem more similar to a game on the economy and foreign policy, show host than a candidate for nation- though these often lacked the struc- al office. ture to permit an exchange of substan- It was the campaign that debated the tive points. place of the niqab in Canadian citi- The parties, as is now ritual in cam- zenship ceremonies and in the latter paigns, issued their own election weeks of the campaign, in federal platform documents, replete with institutions like the federal public lists of policies they would enact (or service. It was also the campaign in cancel, or prevent) if elected, along which the scripted leaders’ tours were with favourable estimates of the costs all interrupted, at least briefly, by involved. Many of those commitments the heartbreaking image of the tiny were announced well in advance of remains of Alan Kurdi, lying face- the start of the campaign, offering down on a Turkish beach, lapped by opportunity for supporters and critics the waves of an Aegean sea that was alike to digest and dissect them. But supposed to take him closer to a coun- parties will, as is their prerogative, try like Canada. Were these last two use their own systems for categoriz-

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 86 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Did Election 2015 Prove Kim Campbell Wrong?

examples mere “distractions” from The debate over the limits to a wom- serious issues? an’s right to religious expression There is a lens through which the and to reasonable accommodation social media gaffes, the niqab, and is a question of the limits of the state even a wrenching image of a Syrian over individual rights. Likewise the youngster would appear to have been competing ideas on the resettlement distractions from more substantive of Syrian refugees revealed different “issues” of the campaign. By this preferences in prioritizing security, frame of reference, observable com- humanitarian goals, and different munications or issues management conceptions of the public interest in is used to explain party behaviour Canada. Even more, the Syrian refugee as purely self-interested during a debate was one example where public permanent campaign. These shocks engagement, perhaps accelerated by (whether exogenous or created by a the election campaign, appears to campaign itself) to the campaign mes- have had a measurable impact on the sage are seen as distractions from real policy direction of the caretaker gov- substantive policy debates. Further- ernment. These were, in truth, debates more, their very occurrence is used to of substantive policy questions, not justify the proposition advanced at the mere distractions. start of this entry—that, in campaigns, These are questions of the values that platforms matter little to outcomes underlie and motivate choices among and are never properly debated. But policy options and choices about there is a selective and possibly circu- which policy problems to prioritize. lar quality to that logic. All parties should take heed.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 87 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Missing in Action: Disability Policy and Persons with Disabilities

Why such a lack of media coverage Liberal MLA, the focus was on trying and interest in disability candidates to become the first Calgary Liberal MP and issues in the 2015 election? Surely elected in over four decades. His cam- disability is a significant issue. Dis- paign centred on normative issues ability’s absence was interesting given such as job creation. The plan worked attention to questions of gender parity as Hehr won by less than 1,000 votes. among candidates both pre-election For Qualtrough, a high profile human and post-election. A similar situation rights lawyer and disability activist, unfolded in regards to visible minority her successful campaign also followed candidates, again both pre-campaign a similar pattern of focusing narrowly and post-campaign. But where was on economic issues. Mario Levesque disability? What can be seen is that candidates Assistant Professor, Department To be sure, there were few candidates with disabilities themselves minimize of Politics and International Relations with disabilities: just 14 out of a pos- disability issues so as not to be defined Mount Allison University sible 1,430 candidates. That is about by them, a point that Fletcher readily 1% of the total number of candidates, admits. Fair enough. But it also points Mario Levesque researches a gross underrepresentation, given to persistent issues of stigma and dis- disability policy in Canada including political participation, that up to 14% of the Canadian popu- crimination in society against persons labour market programming, lation identifies as having a disability. with disabilities. and transit issues for persons Certainly, if we are concerned about From a democratic perspective, the with disabilities. He has the state of our democracy and that published widely on the subject limited media coverage on the few including, with Peter Graefe, ensuring different voices are heard, candidates with disabilities is trou- “‘Not Good Enough’: Canada’s the lack of candidates with disabilities bling given the relative indifference Stalled Disability Policy,” in How is of concern and is itself worthy of in media attention to disability issues. Ottawa Spends, 2013-14, Bruce media coverage. Yet, why the silence Doern and Chris Stoney, eds. Where was the media coverage on the (2013) and “Assessing the Ability on the lack of candidates? lack of Conservative action on their of Disability Organizations: An It was not for a lack of quality candi- proposed 2006 National Disability Interprovincial Comparative Perspective,” Canadian Journal dates or competitive races. For ex- Act? The same can be said to the lim- of Nonprofit and Social Economy ample, Steven Fletcher, the long-time ited mediatization of the Liberal, NDP Research 3, no. 2 (2012). His Conservative MP (since 2004) and and Green party commitments to en- most recent article “Searching former cabinet minister, was defeated act a Canadians with Disabilities Act. for Persons with Disabilities in Canadian Provincial Office,” in a tight race in Charleswood-St. The NDP went the furthest in pub- Canadian Journal of Disability James-Assiniboia-Headingley. While lishing a four page open letter from Studies, is forthcoming. progressive as an MP on disability is- their leader, Tom Mulcair, on their sues when in office, such issues never positions and support for Canadians www.mta.ca/Community/ Bios/Mario_Levesque/Mario_ formed a big part of his re-election bid living with disabilities. Yet again, the Levesque/ which instead broadly focused on the silence from the media was deafening economy. This was significant given on this major policy stand. Only one the mid-campaign release of his new media article by Andre Picard exists book, Master of My Fate, detailing his on the subject, a fact which led CBC efforts to legalize physician assisted radio’s Michael Enright to conclude suicide in Canada, which was well that disabled Canadians were invisible covered by the media. in the 2015 election. Two other campaigns that received To be fair, media coverage of disabil- notable media attention were for ity did exist but it was limited to the Liberal candidates Kent Hehr (Calgary (in)accessibility of polling stations. Centre) and (Del- On this, the media had plenty to say ta). For Hehr, the two-term Alberta revealing partially or fully inaccessible

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 88 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Missing in Action: Disability Policy and Persons with Disabilities

polling stations, as well as the voting Simply put, the media lacks an un- accommodations provided for those derstanding of disability issues and in need. The quantity and depth of appear scared to venture out to report this coverage was interesting given on them or to provide informed com- that the media sought out disability ments. This suggests that if progress organizations such as the Council of on disability issues is to be made, Canadians with Disabilities for com- disability organizations need to focus ments. Yet the campaigns for a Cana- efforts on educating the media and dians with Disabilities Act by these policy makers alike. Perhaps then the same organizations were ignored by disability voice will be able to contrib- the media, thus revealing a media ute to building a healthy democracy. bias for a charity or medical model of disability.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 89 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Syrian Refugee Crisis and the Salience of International Issues

The stirring photograph of three- indifferent about a child who washed year-old Alan Kurdi face-down on a up dead on a beach. beach made the Syrian refugee crisis Although the intrinsic features of the an election issue almost as soon as it Kurdi photo explain why it changed emerged on September 2. Why did a perceptions of the refugees world- single image from halfway across the wide, they only partly explain why world have such a profound effect on the crisis became an election issue in an election campaign? The fallout Canada. Research from other coun- from this unsettling visual provides tries indicates that international is- insights about why certain images sues are most likely to become salient inspire political action and when in- when they have domestic connections ternational issues are likely to become and when they divide political elites. Sean Fleming salient. PhD candidate, Politics and The Syrian refugee crisis probably International Studies The Kurdi photo made the refugee would not have become an election University of Cambridge crisis salient primarily because it issue in Canada if not for the Kurdi individualized or humanized the family’s Canadian connection and the Sean Fleming researches the role of collective and crisis. International issues are usually disagreement among the three major state responsibility in framed in terms of groups—states, parties about Canada’s policies toward international relations. His organizations, alliances, rebels, terror- Syria. other research interests include ists, migrants, and refugees. Collec- political analogies, political The Kurdi family’s Canadian connec- representation, and Thomas tive language and collective images tion increased initial media coverage Hobbes’ political thought. obscure human stories and dull our of the photo and reinforced the view empathy. News stories about the 71 that Canada could have done some- refugees who suffocated in a truck thing to help. Alan Kurdi’s aunt, Tima in Austria, the 200 who drowned off Kurdi, lives in British Columbia, and the coast of Libya, and the 2,636 or early statements from NDP candidate more who died from January to Au- indicated that Citizen- gust failed to make the crisis salient ship and Immigration Canada had because the victims got lost in the rejected her application to sponsor crowd. Particular people, not groups her nephew’s family into Canada. or numbers, trigger empathy. Although it was later revealed that By focusing on a single victim, the she had instead submitted an applica- photo of a dead, innocent toddler tion for the family of Alan’s uncle, the highlighted the vulnerability of the misinformation had already spread, refugees and downplayed the threat and Citizenship and Immigration that they pose. Crowds of nameless, Minister Chris Alexander had already faceless migrants may provoke suspi- been drawn away from his campaign cions of terrorism and opportunism, and into a media frenzy. To add to the but it is unthinkable not to grieve for confusion, Kurdi’s father later blamed a three-year-old boy. Three-year-olds Canadian authorities for the deaths of cannot be dismissed as jihadists or his wife and two sons. The Canadian economic migrants. Suspicion and backstory of the photo, though very indifference about the refugees gave muddled, created a campaign issue way to the thought that Alan Kurdi out of what otherwise would have could have been anyone’s child, which been a tragedy in a faraway land. was quickly followed by the thought The refugee crisis kept the attention of that Canada ought to have helped the media because it provoked a seem- somehow. We cannot be suspicious or ingly endless series of disagreements

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 90 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Syrian Refugee Crisis and the Salience of International Issues

among Canada’s three major parties. the campaign if it had not led to many The Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP smaller debates and controversies. A sparred about how many refugees to tragedy without controversy can- resettle, how quickly to resettle them, not remain a leading news story and how to fund the resettlement, how become an election issue. to screen refugees, and whether the International issues seldom become military campaign against ISIS is a election issues in Canada because necessary part of the humanitarian they are, by definition, collective effort. In early October, just when the and distant: they are about groups salience of the refugee crisis started beyond our borders. The images of to dwindle, The Globe and Mail re- the lifeless body of a Syrian boy made ported that the Prime Minister’s Office the refugee crisis an election issue interfered with the processing of because it humanized the crisis, had UN-referred Syrian refugee claims in a Canadian connection, and divided the months before the photo of Alan Canada’s political elites. The fallout Kurdi surfaced. The refugee crisis suggests that international issues are would not have become a prominent most likely to become salient when election issue had the three parties their international characteristics are agreed about how Canada should stripped away—when they are framed respond, and it would not have re- in terms of innocent individuals and mained salient for the remainder of are brought close to home.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 91 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE We’ve Got Some Catching Up to Do: The Public Service and the 2015 Federal Election

The past ten years were a fascinating have provided occasion to discuss im- time to be a public servant—unless portant public service issues, the latter you were in Ottawa. not so much. Regardless, neither issue Since the mid-2000s, governments flourished into a story with much around the world have experimented staying power on the electoral agenda. with agile service design, new forms Where we did see the public service of data-driven decision-making, come to the fore was in hotly contest- unique collaborations with tech firms, ed Ottawa ridings. Here we received and open policy development. But promises on the long-form census, outside a few pockets of innovation, muzzled scientists, collective bargain- our federal bureaucrats have been ing, and public service cuts. Stephen Amanda Clarke mere bystanders to these develop- Harper and Justin Trudeau offered Assistant Professor, School of ments. Held back by a dearth of competing open letters to the public ­Public Policy and Administration leadership, administrative barriers, service, and the NDP announced its Carleton University and haphazard cuts, we face a federal own take at a gathering of Ottawa Amanda Clarke teaches bureaucracy whose policy capacity is candidates. The unions got in on the graduate courses on public almost a decade out of date. As one debate. But these discussions were management, digital talented, cutting-edge—but ultimately decidedly Ottawa-centric, focused on government, and policy frustrated—public servant told me, winning federal public servants’ votes, advocacy. Currently she leads a SSHRC funded project on civic working for the federal government not inviting the broader citizenry to technologies and serves on the “is like stepping into a time warp.” consider the public service as a gov- Mowat Centre’s Expert Advisory In an election centred on “change,” erning institution of national import. Panel on Civil Service Reform. Unless you were debating between a Her recent research explores the and, in particular, an election in which impact of social media, big data, the two dominant parties promising vote for Conservative incumbent Royal and open data on policymaking, that change have a healthy respect for Galipeau or Liberal challenger An- public management and the institution of the public service, drew Leslie, the parties’ stances on the government-citizen relations. In public service probably didn’t cross 2014 she completed a doctoral we might have hoped to hear more thesis at the University of about how our electoral contenders your radar during the election. Oxford as a Trudeau Scholar, would invest in the public service in Of course, this is where you ask: Wait where she examined the tension between bureaucracy and digital the years ahead. But looking back over a second, is the public service an issue era policy processes in Canada the election, we didn’t hear much. of national import? Maybe the public and the UK. Yes, the parties discussed their ap- service was absent from the election because Canadians outside Ottawa are @ae_clarke proach to the public service in their of- www.aclarke.ca ficial platforms, but I doubt that many little concerned with the public ser- Canadians perused the depths of the vice and how it is run. As one journal- party websites to find these platforms. ist put it when describing an Ottawa In the debates and nationally broad- crowd’s giddy reaction to Trudeau’s cast interviews we received only pass- support for the long-form census and ing references to the public service, if government scientists: “there’s no any at all. nerd like an Ottawa nerd.” Public servants’ open challenges to And this is precisely the problem. the government—and subsequent In this election, and in recent years, controversial punishments—entered the public service has primarily been the national conversation, as did a an Ottawa issue. Sure, when asked brief discussion of whether or not directly whether they worry about the public servants should be allowed to quality of public services, Canadians wear niqabs. The former issue could say they care. But in general, outside

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 92 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE We’ve Got Some Catching Up to Do: The Public Service and the 2015 Federal Election

academia and the public service itself, aspects of Canadian society in which we lack a fulsome national conversa- the federal government is implicated. tion on, and appreciation for, the role Oh, and remember all those election that the public service plays in our promises? Well it is the public ser- democracy. vice that must make them happen in This role should not be discounted. practice. As users of public services, most The takeaway from the 2015 Canadian Canadians interact far more with the federal election is that even though public service than they ever will with the public service is an institution of elected officials. national import, the nation (and the Through consultations and stakehold- parties seeking its votes) does not er outreach, federal bureaucrats act seem terribly interested in discussing as gatekeepers to the policy process, it. With a new government in power, deciding who gets the ear of decision- academics, media, the public service, makers. And in the advice they give and citizens now need to engage in ministers, public servants can serve as honest discussion about how our pub- a valuable source of non-partisan ex- lic service works, where it does not pertise to enrich the decision-making work so well, and why this matters. processes affecting citizens. These conversations will kick start much-needed updates to a federal bu- How the federal public service re- reaucracy that some believe is stuck in sponds to Access to Information a time warp. In short, when it comes requests, media enquiries, and re- to the public service, this election sug- searchers directly impacts our collec- gests that we’ve all got some catching tive ability to hold the government to up to do. account, and to understand the many

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 93 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Constitutional Issues in the 2015 Federal Election

Thomas M.J. Bateman Constitutional questions have not may secede from the country. The Associate Professor, Political dominated recent Canadian federal 2000 federal , putting in Science elections, but they are never far from legislative form the principles of the St. Thomas University the surface. In 2015, four issues of Supreme Court’s 1998 opinion on the Thomas Bateman specializes constitutional importance stood matter, declares that voters must vote in Canadian politics and out: conven- with a clear majority on a clear ques- government and Canadian tions, Quebec secession rules, senate tion. The adjective for most people constitutional politics. His most reform, and the “niqab issue.” means a super-majority; otherwise, recent publications include “The Other Shoe to Drop: Marc Nadon The parties were, early on, in a tight why have the adjective at all? But the and Judicial Appointment three-way race. Pundits wasted no NDP, insisting on a clear question, Politics in Post-Charter Canada,” time in generating post-election holds that a bare majority would suf- Journal of Parliamentary and fice to trigger negotiations. Political Law 9, no. 1 (March, government-formation scenarios. 2015) and “Prime Ministers Here, constitutional conventions loom Justin Trudeau takes “clear majority” and Presidents: Institutional large. Canadians vote to elect local to mean something more than 50%+1. Differences and Political MPs; government formation follows. When asked by Thomas Mulcair what Convergence” in David Thomas and David Biette, eds., Canada After an election, if no party has a ma- number he would accept to start and the United States: Differences jority of seats, the incumbent prime negotiation, Trudeau responded, “9,” a that Count (University of Toronto minister, whatever his or her party’s clever piece of political evasion. Nine Press, 2014). seat count, may remain in office, meet is the number of seats on the Supreme w3.stu.ca/stu/sites/faculty/ Parliament, and try to maintain the Court, and the number of Justices who bateman/index.aspx confidence of the House. penned the 1998 Secession opinion. In But parties and the media speak as one stroke he wriggled from Mulcair’s though voters directly elect or defeat hold, showed a rhetorical deftness, Andrea Lawlor governments, which breeds confu- and affirmed the authority of the Assistant Professor, Political sion. Mr. Harper said in the campaign Supreme Court, a point not lost on Science critics of the Conservatives’ chronic King’s University College, that the party with a plurality gets to Western University form a government. The other lead- court-bashing. ers, with exception of Elizabeth May, Whatever its value as a chamber of Andrea Lawlor’s research focuses on the impact of found it hard to differ with him, even legislative review, the Senate’s reputa- media on politics and public though there are precedents to the tion remains that of a haven for party policy. Her most recent contrary. patrons, rather than a centre for ac- publications include (with countability. Recent RCMP investiga- Erin Crandall) “Third Party Changes in government can, however, Election Spending in Canada occur without an election—especially tions into senators’ expenses do little and the United Kingdom: A if a government is defeated in its to undo this. Comparative Analysis,” Election Law Journal 13, no. 4, and early days. Consider the events in the In response, all political parties have “Local and National Accounts aftermath of Ontario’s 1985 election. articulated plans for senate reform— of Immigration Framing in a But emerging notions of “democracy” or for no senate at all. Yet, practically Cross-National Perspective,” render this problematic. Mr. Harper all proposed reforms to the senate Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 41, no. 3 (2015). argued that people choose govern- must navigate Canada’s complex con- ments, implying that changes in for- stitutional amending formulae. Mul- www.kings.uwo.ca/academics/ mation require elections. Many would cair would abolish the Senate, which political-science/people/dr-an- agree, suggesting that the conven- requires unanimous agreement of the drea-lawlor/ tions of responsible government may, provinces and Parliament (a titanic for better or worse, be changing. challenge). Outgoing Prime Minister Every party seeking to do well in Que- Harper tried to institute provincial bec must make its peace with Quebec consultative elections for senators and nationalism. For the NDP this meant to limit senator terms to nine years. revisiting the terms on which Quebec The 2014 Supreme Court reference

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 94 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Constitutional Issues in the 2015 Federal Election

opinion requires the consent of the weeks of the campaign. This debate provinces for this. Harper’s reforms swirled around in the language of are a dead letter. Trudeau released all Charter values, including fundamen- sitting Liberal senators from the party tal freedoms (section 2) and equal- caucus (even if some still chose to ity (section 15). Despite a loss at the self-identify as Liberal), the only suc- Federal Court of Appeal on their 2011 cessful “reform” of the bunch. While niqab ban, where the courts explic- the act may be small, the impact of his itly refrained from evoking Charter proposal to strike a non-partisan advi- language, the Conservatives sought sory committee on appointments may to push ahead with a Supreme Court go further than formal constitutional challenge and to reintroduce the reforms. legislation within the first 100 days Perhaps the most controversial event of governing. With a Liberal majority of the campaign is one that barely government taking power, the issue mentioned the constitution at all. It is may now be closed. safe to say that choice of attire during Many pundits have argued that Ca- citizenship ceremonies was not on nadians lack an appetite for another the public’s issue radar when the writ round of mega-constitutional politics. was dropped in August. However, the Nonetheless, constitutional politics Conservative party’s tying of wearing remain embedded into some of the a niqab during the citizenship oath- core contemporary debates in Canadi- swearing to an infraction of Canadian an politics, and will continue to unfold values nearly dominated the final now that the campaign is done.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 95 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Election 2015 and Canada’s Public Services

Bryan Evans In 2014, former Parliamentary Budget on professional services purchased Officer Kevin Page stated: “The public from external contractors at the same Associate Professor, Department of Politics and Public Administration service of Canada is struggling … Trust time as it cut nearly 20,000 jobs. The Ryerson University has been diminished.” The existential better-known cuts to scientific func- crisis within the federal public service tions as well as the limitations on the Bryan Evans’ recent publications include, Shrinking the State, that Page notes was precipitated by ability of government scientists to co-authored with Dr. John Prime Minister Harper’s efforts to re- communicate their research findings Shields; Transforming Provincial construct the federal administrative are yet another part of the story of de- Politics: The Political Economy of state. Consequently, the 2015 election professionalization. Canada’s Provinces and Territories in the Neoliberal Era, edited with was marked by a subtext respect- Public service unions have responded Charles W. Smith (University of ing the nature and substance of the with uncharacteristic public opposi- Toronto Press, 2015); and Social relationship between the professional tion to the Conservative government. Democracy after the Cold War, public service and the political execu- edited with Ingo Schmidt. Prior The Public Service Alliance of Canada to his academic appointment he tive. rolled out a $2.7 million ad campaign worked as a policy advisor in the The Harper government has been called “Vote to Stop the Cuts” in the Ontario Public Service. defined by policy decisions affecting summer of 2015 and expanded this www.ryerson.ca/politics/ public services and public servants— during the election campaign. The about-us/personnel/faculty/ the ending of the long-form census; Professional Institute of the Public evans-bryan.html the “muzzling” of government scien- Service of Canada, which represents tists; budget cuts generally, but spe- government scientists, decided to cifically to , the Canadian move to active opposition in 2014 Broadcasting Corporation, and Via when scientists proposed that the Rail; privatizations; closing scientific union abandon its tradition of neu- research centres; contracting out pub- trality and campaign openly against lic-service work; termination of senior the Harper government. PIPSC target- public executives; and de-regulation. ed “priority” electoral ridings where a All are coherently linked to a political majority of public servants live in an project not to simply shrink govern- effort to defeat Conservative MPs. 1 ment but to redefine its role. Consequently, during the 2015 cam- Labour relations have become particu- paign, both of the main opposition larly confrontational as a combination parties made commitments to repair of budget cuts and strategies to create the broken relationship with the a more politically responsive and flex- public service. The Liberals promised ible public service has met with op- to bargain in good faith and to restore position from public service unions. many of the cuts, to end the muzzling The 2013 Budget Bill empowered the of scientists, and to repeal anti-public government as employer to unilater- service legislation. And both opposi- ally designate certain parts of the pub- tion parties’ platforms contained com- lic service as essential services, thus mitments to open the policy process eliminating the right to strike from a and ensure that evidence and science majority of the public service. In addi- were at the foundation of policy-mak- tion, the growth in the contracting out ing. The Liberals further pledged to es- of public-sector work has been an im- tablish new performance standard for portant part of de-­professionalization. Veterans Affairs services, immigration By 2014, more than $10 billion a year processing, and appeals at the social was spent by the federal government security tribunal. The NDP committed

1 Donald Gutstein. Harperism: How Stephen Harper and His Think Tank Colleagues Have Transformed Canada. (Toronto: James Lorimer and Co.), 188.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 96 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Election 2015 and Canada’s Public Services

to restoring respect and the notion of What the 2015 election tells us is that a professional public service, reduc- the integrity and capacity of the public ing the outsourcing of public service service to do their work is understood, work, and planning to create a Pub- no matter how subtly, as giving voice lic Appointments Commissioner to to our collective needs and wants as ensure government appointments are a nation, decided through free and not politicized. regular elections. Public services and Political parties are elected to create, public servants are, in this sense, the reform, or withdraw public goods and products and agents giving expression services. The public servants who de- to our democratic will. The 2015 elec- sign and deliver these services are the tion was one of two competing visions connective tissue between Parliament of the role of the public service in that and the point of public consumption. endeavour.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 97 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Regional Sensibilities and Regional Voting

It was a national election but there sensibilities. Consider where and was little national about the vote. As what the party leaders said the day in most Canadian elections, strik- before the above-cited Nanos poll ap- ing regional variations appeared on peared. Justin Trudeau was in Atlantic election night: the Conservatives, who Canada, the region with the highest received 60% of the vote in Alberta, rate of unemployment, pledging to re- garnered no more than 18% in Que- duce the waiting time for employment bec or ; the NDP, who won insurance applicants from two weeks 25% of the vote in Saskatchewan, to one week; Tom Mulcair toured a received less than 14% in neighbour- Montreal Bombardier facility promis- ing Manitoba where the party governs ing to boost the aerospace industry Nelson Wiseman provincially; and the Liberals who in the province where it is concen- won a majority of the votes in each trated; and Stephen Harper stopped in Professor, Political Science, and Director, Canadian Studies of the Atlantic provinces, including , a city with many young Program a remarkable 65% in Newfoundland families and two large post-secondary University of Toronto and Labrador and 62% in Nova Scotia, campuses, to offer increased federal Nelson Wiseman is a professor mustered no more than a quarter of contributions to education savings and a for The Hill the votes in Alberta. plans. Times, Canada’s politics and At exactly the mid-point of the cam- With the rise of broadcast media, government newsweekly. His recent publications include paign, on day 39 of the 78-day battle particularly television in the 1960s, it “Reading Prairie Politics: for power, the nightly tracking poll by became more difficult for leaders and Morton, Lipset, Macpherson” Nanos Research, which proved to be parties to say one thing in one re- International Journal of Canadian the most accurate, put the Liberals in gion and something contradictory in Studies (2015), “Ethnicity, Religion, and Socialism in first place. It was the first poll to do so another region. Nevertheless, parties Canada: The Twenties through in months. The election turned and may accomplish the same thing with the War,” Canadian Ethnic the die was cast. Although the NDP regionally tailored ads. For example, Studies (2015), and The Public was trailing the Liberals nationally once the Conservatives and the Bloc Intellectual in Canada (University of Toronto Press, 2013). by only a percentage point, the NDP’s Québécois ran niqab-focussed ads in inefficiently concentrated support Quebec, three in ten self-identified in Quebec and B.C. at the time fore- NDP supporters reported that they shadowed further Liberal gains at the were less likely to vote for that party. NDP’s expense. From then on, Liberal In contrast, only one in twenty NDP prospects brightened and the NDP’s supporters in the rest of Canada said chances dimmed in a context where the niqab issue would affect their vote. the major driver of the vote in the On the issue of the pipe- election was the question of which line, the Liberal and NDP leaders were party had the best prospect of defeat- equally evasive in the two solitudes. ing the Conservative government. The The niqab issue seriously weakened other issues proved to be ephemeral the New Democrats in Quebec. Since flavours of the week—the Mike Duffy Quebec accounts for 23% of Canada’s trial, a technical recession, a budget ridings, the NDP’s decline in the surplus, proposed deficit spending, province lowered its national poll migrants/refugees, the niqab, the numbers. This clarified for voters Trans Pacific Partnership. in the rest of Canada that the NDP If Canadian elections often appear was unlikely to win. The diminished more like contests among regions popularity of the NDP reported in the than among parties, it is partly be- ubiquitous and closely monitored cause parties contribute to this state of polls accelerated the consolidation of affairs by catering to distinct regional

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 98 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Regional Sensibilities and Regional Voting

the anti-government voters around double the percentage of the vote they the Liberals. gained nationally, leader Elizabeth Party leaders also moved about May spent all but 13 days in the first strategically in different regions. The two months of the campaign, and held received partic- her Saanich–Gulf Islands seat. Tell- ular attention because it often deter- ingly, she failed to appear in any of the mines, as it did in the four elections prairie provinces. In Newfoundland, between 2004 and 2011, whether the another province she skipped, her par- complexion of the regime would be ty attracted no more than one percent Liberal or Conservative and whether of the vote. the outcome would be a majority or a Canadians may rightly be proud of minority government. For the Greens, their democracy. However, the con- who ran candidates in every prov- duct of Canadian campaigns, as the ince, it was British Columbia rather 2015 campaign demonstrated, suggest than the GTA that merited special a regionally fragmented polity. ’Twas attention. In that province, where always thus. the Greens captured well more than

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 99 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Le NPD au Québec : doublé sur sa gauche

Tant à l’échelle canadienne que deux scrutins consécutifs. Or, même Eric Montigny québécoise, les résultats du Nouveau avec un recul important auprès de Directeur exécutif, Chaire de Parti démocratique (NPD) en 2015 l’électorat québécois, en passant de recherche sur la démocratie et les institutions parlementaires furent bien en deçà des attentes. En 43% à 25% des appuis, l’enracinement Université Laval tête dans les sondages au moment du du NPD au Québec peut se poursuivre. déclenchement de l’élection, il pouvait Relégué au statut de troisième parti Eric Montigny researches parties, political leadership, de façon réaliste aspirer à prendre le en Chambre, la tâche sera certes plus governance, and Canadian and pouvoir pour la première fois de son difficile, mais il dispose du deuxième Quebec politics. He is also the histoire. Au Québec, une vague encore plus important nombre de députés au author of an essay on leadership plus importante qu’en 2011 était envi- Québec, dont plusieurs de ses têtes and involvement in the Parti québécois and the co-editor sageable. d’affiches. Derrière le Parti libéral, of a book published in 2013, En 2011, le NPD avait créé la surprise. mais devant le Parti conservateur et le Parlementarisme francophone. Avec 58 députés sur 75 et plus de 43% Bloc québécois, il demeure une force He is recently co-author, with politique réelle. Rebecca Morency, of « Le député des voix, 60% de sa députation était québécois en circonscription : alors issue du Québec. Conservant 16 Malgré la défaite, l’élection de 2015 évolution, rôle et réalités » députés et l’appui d’un électeur sur aura permis au NPD de fidéliser son Canadian Journal of Political quatre, cette vague orange ne s’est propre électorat. Il peut maintenant Science 47, no. 1 (2014). pas reproduite en 2015. C’est le Parti revendiquer une base électorale réelle, @ermon4 libéral du Canada de Justin Trudeau mieux définie. En 2011, le NPD avait www.pol.ulaval.ca/?pid=243 qui, contre toute attente, a remporté la réussi à fédérer plusieurs catégories majorité des sièges en sol québécois. d’électeurs. Il est difficile de mainte- François Gélineau À la mi-campagne, un glissement nir un niveau d’appuis élevé auprès Titulaire de la Chaire de est apparu. Que ce soit en raison des de clientèles aussi diversifiées. Les recherche sur la démocratie et les hésitations de Thomas Mulcair sur résultats électoraux de 2015 lui per- institutions parlementaires mettront de poursuivre le développe- Université Laval la question du niqab ou d’un plan de campagne trop prudent en com- ment de son organisation militante et François Gélineau’s research paraison avec l’audace du PLC sur la l’établissement de liens plus soutenus focuses on the study of political question de l’équilibre budgétaire, auprès de certains segments plus cir- participation and electoral conscrits de l’électorat québécois. Ce behaviour in Quebec and the plusieurs facteurs peuvent expliquer developing world. His work has cette glissade. Avec une mauvaise sont des conditions essentielles pour been published in many peer- campagne, le NPD n’a clairement pas y assurer son institutionnalisation. reviewed journals including the été en mesure de se transformer en La performance du NPD au cours des British Journal of Political Science, deux dernières élections fédérales au Political Research Quarterly, champion du changement. Québec nous permet donc de croire Electoral Studies, Comparative À la lumière des résultats de 2015, Political Studies, The Journal qu’il y a bel et bien eu réalignement au of Elections, PublicOpinion & nous tenterons donc de répondre à sein de son système partisan. Parties, and the Canadian Journal deux questions. Avec la chute du NPD of Political Science. He recently et la remontée du PLC, l’élection de Dans le même ordre d’idées, les authored « Poids électoral : la 2015 représente-t-elle un retour à la résultats de 2015 nous permettent revanche de la Génération X », donc d’écarter l’hypothèse suggérant dans: Institut du Nouveau normale? Deuxièmement, alors que Monde. L’État du Québec 2015 : plus de 80% des électeurs québé- que 2011 ne fut qu’un accident de 20 clés pour comprendre les enjeux cois ont choisi des partis politiques parcours. Ce ne fut pas une élection de actuels (Del Busso, 2015) opposés à l’indépendance, peut-on déviation, mais bel et bien de réali- gnement faisant du Bloc québécois la @fgelineau conclure à un réel déclin du clivage www.democratie.chaire.ulaval. indépendance-fédéralisme? principale victime de la transforma- ca/index.php? tion. En 2015, le Bloc n’a recueilli que Pour parler d’une élection de réali- 19,3% des voix. Sept de ses dix dépu- gnement, il importe d’observer des tés n’ont été élus qu’avec l’appui d’un changements significatifs quant aux électeur sur trois ou moins. partis dominants pendant au moins

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 100 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Le NPD au Québec : doublé sur sa gauche

Pour les Québécois, l’échec de l’Accord au Québec. À bien des égards, le PLC a du Lac Meech en 1990, jumelé à la d’ailleurs réussi à dépasser le NPD sur création du Bloc, a marqué la nais- sa gauche. Ce fut notamment le cas sance d’un nouveau cycle politique sur l’enjeu des dépenses budgétaires plaçant le clivage Oui-Non lié au pour lequel les libéraux sont apparus projet d’indépendance du Québec au plus interventionnistes. cœur de la scène politique fédérale. Ce nouveau cycle politique n’est pas Jusqu’en 2011, cela eu pour effet de sans conséquence. Rares sont les polariser le débat politique entre le élections fédérales qui se traduisent Bloc, représentant l’option souverai- par un réel morcellement de l’élec- niste au Québec, et le PLC, la figure de torat québécois. Le clivage souverai- proue de l’option fédéraliste. En 2015, neté-fédéralisme avait pour effet de même avec un discours du Bloc plus cimenter les options en deux camps. affirmé sur la question, l’indépen- Son déclin observé en 2011 et en 2015 dance du Québec ne fut pas un enjeu se traduit par une volatilité certaine. électoral déterminant. Au contraire, S’il conditionne toujours le vote de le retrait de l’appui traditionnel de certains électeurs, il n’est plus domi- grandes centrales syndicales québé- nant auprès d’une partie importante coises au Bloc québécois a marqué de l’électorat. Au Québec, cela consti- une véritable rupture. Ce phénomène tue probablement le principal effet pourrait marquer la montée en force du NPD. Même s’il est encore tôt pour d’un clivage gauche-droite au détri- confirmer le caractère durable de cette ment du clivage indépendance-fédé- nouvelle réalité, il pourrait s’agir d’un ralisme comme déterminant du vote changement structurel profond.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 101 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Provincial Premiers and the 2015 Federal Election Campaign

Provincial premiers can be significant during federal election campaigns. political players in federal election Partisan stripes were not predictive campaigns. Premiers can act as of where the antagonism came from, regional campaigners, focusing the considering that the Conservative national message through a more lo- Party of Canada has no formal associa- cal lens. As well, supportive premiers tion with provincial parties. In 2008, can be reflective of a deep coopera- Newfoundland and Labrador Progres- tion between the federal party and its sive Conservative Premier Danny provincial counterparts, providing Williams launched a very aggressive organizational and strategic support. public campaign against the federal However, antagonistic premiers can Conservatives over disagreements J.P. Lewis be just as impactful, acting as oppos- concerning equalization payments ing voices, and amplifying critiques of under the moniker of “ABC: Anything Assistant Professor, History and Politics national party leaders. Adversarial re- But Conservative.” More predictably, University of New Brunswick lationships between premiers and the provincial Liberal premiers in both prime minister are as old as Canada the 2008 and 2011 federal elections J.P. Lewis has published on cabinet government and itself: one of John A. Macdonald’s con- openly campaigned against Harper. political elites in Canada. stant thorns was his former Kingston Quebec Liberal Premier His most recent publications law partner, Ontario Liberal Premier pushed the incumbent party on a include “A Consideration . number of policy areas including rail of Cabinet Size,” Canadian Parliamentary Review and, with Adversarial relationships between transit and the gun registry (2008) Andrea Lawlor, “‘Expansion Canada’s premiers and Stephen and federal-provincial fiscal arrange- in Progress’: Understanding Harper were noteworthy because of ments (2011). Ontario Liberal Premier Portfolio Adoption in the Dalton McGuinty campaigned pub- Canadian Provinces, 1982-2012” his laissez-faire approach to federal- Canadian Journal of Political provincial politics. For decades, for- licly against the Conservative party Science 48, no. 1 (2015). mal institutions (e.g., first ministers’ with focuses on federal-provincial conferences) provided an arena for fiscal arrangements (2008) and health @jplewis14 care (2011). www.unb.ca/saintjohn/arts/ the relationships between premiers depts/historypolitics/politics/ and prime ministers to play a role in During the 2015 federal election people/lewis.html the Canadian political landscape. But campaign, there were four different soon after the Conservative Party’s approaches among the premiers of victory in the 2006 election campaign, Canada’s four most-populous prov- Prime Minister Harper stopped the inces. In British Columbia, Liberal practice of first ministers’ conferences Premier remained on and led the federal government to play the sidelines, noting she was ready to less of a role in provincial jurisdiction. work with whoever formed govern- The act of publicly rebuking a sitting ment. This is indicative of a neutral prime minister is risky for premiers, approach and the unique brand of given that it poisons a relationship “Liberal” that the B.C. Liberal Party with someone they need to work with. is—an informal coalition of Liberals Yet within the vacuum created by and Conservatives. In Quebec, Liberal Harper’s disengagement from these Premier was quiet institutions, premiers have largely outside of public comments about been left to determine what kind of Quebec accepting hundreds of thou- political relationships they want to sands of refugees from Syria. have with their federal counterpart. The most attention was paid to pre- Heading into the 2015 election, mier activity during the campaign Harper had experience dealing with in Alberta and Ontario. Fresh off her opposition from sitting premiers surprising provincial election victory,

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 102 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Provincial Premiers and the 2015 Federal Election Campaign

Alberta NDP Premier involvement seemed risky while Not- initially played it safe, not making any ley’s seemed to be a curiosity. public partisan comments, even when For the federal Liberals, a premier’s Stephen Harper called the Alberta involvement or lack thereof did not NDP government a disaster. But with appear to make a difference. With the federal NDP falling in the polls premiers in each province playing a late in the campaign, Notley publically different role, the results were posi- endorsed federal NDP leader Tom tive across the board. In terms of seat Mulcair and the party while arguing count, the Liberals went from third that Harper was out of touch with place in Ontario and British Columbia Albertan values. In the waning days and second place in Quebec to first of the campaign, she then appeared place in all three (11 seats to 80 in on stage with Mulcair at an Edmonton Ontario, 7 to 40 in Quebec and two to rally. Meanwhile, in Ontario, Liberal 17 in British Columbia). On the other Premier campaigned hand, while at this early stage it is dif- with Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and ficult to tell whether Notley’s endorse- was very clear in her opposition to the ment hurt Mulcair, it seemingly did incumbent Conservatives. Early on in not help, with the NDP holding on the campaign, Wynne was aggressive to one Alberta seat but seeing their with her critique, tweeting, “Harper’s popular vote decrease in the province attack on retirement security can only from 16.8% to 11.6%. The results sug- be described as a blatant attack on the gest that while premiers may decide to people of Ontario.” Observers watched play a role in federal campaigns, their these premiers’ actions with intrigue. impact is anything but predictable. Wynne had an approval rating of only 31%, Notley was at 50%; Wynne’s

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 103 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE All Politics is Local: The Campaign to Put Urban Issues on the Election Agenda

Municipal leaders routinely seek ties today: infrastructure, transit, and election goodies from political parties affordable housing. A focused mes- eager for local votes. But the country’s sage no doubt made it easier for jour- big-city mayors took these lobby- nalists to cover municipal issues, vot- ing efforts a step further in the 2015 ers to understand them, and political federal election with a coordinated parties to respond to them. Municipal campaign to convince Canadians leaders who present a long wishlist to keep urban issues in mind when tend to get ignored, argued Montreal voting. Their goal was to make urban councillor Guillaume Lavoie: “By platforms central to parties’ elec- demanding everything, you get noth- toral fortunes. Calgary Mayor Naheed ing.” The Conservatives, Liberals, and Angelia Wagner Nenshi boldly asserted that “whoever NDP vowed to address the three priori- gets the cities right gets to be prime ties in their own way, though the suc- SSHRC Postdoctoral Fellow, Centre for the Study of Democratic minister.” cess of the mayors’ communication Citizenship Launching their campaign last Feb- strategy will depend upon the extent McGill University ruary, the mayors used a number of to which the victorious Liberals keep Angelia Wagner researches communication tactics to put urban their campaign promises. women in politics, political issues on the election agenda. The A second strength of the municipal communication, and municipal pre-writ period saw them target mov- campaign was the fact that the mayors politics. She has authored and co-authored articles ers and shakers in Ottawa, including appeared to present a united front on in International Journal of through a cover story in Power & these issues. Their coordinated calls Press/Politics, Journalism Influence magazine. The mayors took a for action on infrastructure, transit, Practice, Women Studies in broader approach during the election and housing made it harder for parties Communication, and Canadian Political Science Review. itself. Individual efforts to draw public to avoid addressing these expensive and media attention to urban issues policy issues. And while municipali- @Angelia_Wagner ranged from Ottawa’s Jim Watson ties vary in their specific needs, the organizing an election debate at city mayors’ consistent messaging meant hall to Calgary’s Nenshi posting the their communication efforts were parties’ responses to a series of ques- more likely to be effective in putting tions to a special website. Joint actions these concerns on the federal election included mayors touring Toronto’s agenda. The mayors should consider YWCA Elm Centre in late Septem- extending this high-level campaign ber to draw attention to affordable into the post-election period and re- housing and staging a series of press maining united in pushing for federal conferences, media statements, and attention to infrastructure, transit, social media postings just days before and affordable housing. the election to urge Canadians to “vote A third strength of the municipal for cities.” The Federation of Canadian campaign was its digital-media com- Municipalities (FCM) supported these ponent. The large number of issues efforts by creating election websites raised by different political actors (such as www.citiescan.ca) that pro- during the 11-week federal election vided visitors with information on key meant that getting municipal perspec- municipal issues, tips on how to pro- tives into the news on a consistent mote these issues, and tools to directly basis was going to be a challenge. The lobby candidates. FCM’s election website provided voters These communication efforts had a not only with important information number of strengths. First, the mayors about municipal issues and why the concentrated on three key issues organization believes they need to be among the many affecting municipali- addressed but also side-by-side com-

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 104 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE All Politics is Local: The Campaign to Put Urban Issues on the Election Agenda

parisons of the major parties’ plat- versation about urban affairs going, forms on each of the identified issues. ensuring that the time, money, and By clicking on a button, visitors could effort expended on this communica- also send a tweet or email to a local tion effort has ramifications long after candidate urging them to make a com- the election. mitment to Canadian municipalities. The most important strength of the One drawback of the digital cam- municipal campaign, however, was paign, though, was the call to use its contribution to fostering political the #cdnmuni and #elxn42 hashtags participation among Canadians. By for election tweets about munici- providing voters with information pal issues. The #cdnmuni and opinions about municipal issues, included non-election tweets about questions to pose to candidates at local governance, while the #elxn42 the door, and advice on how to stage hashtag incorporated tweets of vary- all-candidate debates, the mayors and ing election topics. Nor did Twitter FCM encouraged citizens to become users always use both hashtags when more actively informed about and tweeting about municipal election involved in politics. In short, they did issues. A single hashtag would have not treat voters as spectators to the po- been more successful in creating and litical game but as key political actors sustaining an online election conver- in the Canadian democratic process. sation about urban issues. The mayors and FCM might consider creating such a hashtag to keep the national con-

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 105 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Horserace Journalism under Stress?

J. Scott Matthews A series of prominent “poll failures” Success in predicting election-day Associate Professor, Department have captured the headlines in recent voting, furthermore, is only indirectly of Political Science years. The surprise return to power of relevant to judging the quality of the Memorial University governments in Alberta and British polls during the campaign. Given the Director, Canadian Opinion Columbia in 2012 and 2013, respec- seeming importance of the horser- Research Archive tively, are salient Canadian examples; ace—especially the relative perfor- Queen’s University in spring 2015, political observers mances of the Liberals and NDP—to Scott Matthews specializes in globally were stunned by the Con- voters’ decisions in this election, the study of elections, voting, servatives’ majority victory in what whether pollsters and the media sup- and public opinion in Canada and the United States. He has the polls had suggested was a hotly plied voters with a proper rendering of published broadly on elections, contested British general election. the electoral landscape before election particularly on the psychology These events have not gone unnoticed day is just as important as judging the of political learning and attitude success of pollsters on election day. change in diverse domains in the Canadian press, and stories of political behaviour. Most about “the trouble with polling these To offer a preliminary assessment of pertinent here, in 2012 he co- days” featured in the 2015 campaign. how polls were reported in 2015, I col- authored, with Mark Pickup and Fred Cutler, “The Mediated Prior to the election, professional poll- lected and analyzed online stories re- Horserace: Campaign Polls sters were sufficiently worried about porting the horserace over the last 15 and Poll Reporting” Canadian the state of their industry to organize days of the campaign (October 4-18).1 Journal of Political Science 45, no. a new standard-setting body. Pollsters The Google News search tool was used 2 (2012). have good reason to be worried. In ad- to identify unique stories from Cana- www.mun.ca/posc/people/ dition to the proliferation of modes of dian websites mentioning 1.) the word matthews.php survey research not based on tradi- “poll” (or its derivatives) and 2.) either tional, probabilistic sampling meth- two or more of the major parties (Lib- ods, pollsters relying on conventional eral, Conservative, NDP) or the words methodologies have suffered a steep “Canada” and “election.” The search decline in response rates. Reflecting was limited to 14 national and regional on the phenomenon, one prominent news organizations, including both Canadian pollster noted that response print and broadcast sources (e.g., The rates to live-interview telephone polls Globe and Mail, Global TV, Saskatoon had fallen from a high of nearly 80% Star-Phoenix). Stories focusing on sub- thirty years ago to a low of 10 percent, national (e.g., provincial) horseraces or even less, today. were excluded. The final set of 57 sto- Did this context influence the report- ries was then analyzed by an experi- ing of the horserace in this election? enced coder. The coding protocol was More precisely, did any of the new designed to capture content implying uncertainty about poll results con- that polls were an uncertain indicator dition how journalists reported the of the state of the national horserace. polls? While some analysts have The protocol aimed to identify both suggested pollsters actually did rather manifest and latent content. Mundane well this year, particularly in forecast- references to statistical concepts that ing the final result in the last days of capture uncertainty (e.g., margins of the campaign, reporters, nonetheless, error) were not coded. arguably had good reason to be cir- In short, only a small fraction of the cumspect in their treatment of polls. stories suggested, in some way, that

1  would like to acknowledge the superb research assistance of Joshua Smee, who worked uncommonly quickly—but also carefully—in compiling and coding the database of stories on which this analysis relies.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 106 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE TITLEHorserace Journalism under Stress?

the results of polls were an uncertain results: around 19% of such stories indicator of the horserace. Just 14% of explicitly referred to a reason for stories explicitly referred to method- uncertainty about polls, while rough- ological challenges facing pollsters. ly 13% of horserace-focused stories Fewer than one in 10 stories men- implied more generally that polls may tioned pollsters’ prediction failures be unreliable. in previous elections (in Canada or These findings suggest that al- elsewhere). Only one of the 57 stories though many commentators have in the sample referred to controver- acknowledged the challenges faced sy regarding the polling industry’s by pollsters in recent years, jour- methods or the reporting of results. nalists reporting the polls in 2015 All told, under 16% of stories referred experienced little of this stress. Poll explicitly to at least one of these three reporting, at least over the campaign’s reasons that an informed voter might final weeks, conveyed little of the be uncertain about the reported polls. uncertainty informed observers have An indicator designed to capture expressed about the quality of polls. latent uncertainty about the polls For voters, the effect may have been conveys a similar impression: roughly an unjustified level of confidence in 11% of stories implied, in some way, poll information circulated during the that poll results may not be a highly campaign. Given the widely presumed reliable indicator of how the public significance of strategic voting in this will vote. Confining the analysis to election, such over-confidence may stories where the central topic was have had real consequences for elec- a horserace poll produces similar toral choice.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 107 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Canadian Pollsters and the 2015 Canadian Election: Did They Get It Right?

Readers might recall the iconic 1948 So, how did pollsters perform in the photograph of newly elected US final days of the 2015 federal elec- President Harry Truman holding tion? The election began with the above his head the Chicago Tribune NDP slightly in the lead, the Conserva- with the erroneous headline “Dewey tives in a close second position, and Wins!” Like the airline industry, for the Liberals placing third. Within a pollsters it sometimes seems that it few weeks it was shaping up to be a is only the crashes people remember three-way battle. After the Labour (Moore, 1992: 313). More recently, Day weekend, the NDP began to wane public confidence in the Canadian while the Liberals began moving into polling industry was shaken by both second and then first place. the 2012 Alberta and 2013 BC provin- The table below provides an overview Christopher Adams cial elections during which the polls of results based on press releases put Chair of the Arthur V. Mauro consistently and incorrectly foretold forward by each of the major national Centre for Peace and Justice and a change in government. However, to polling firms in the final days of the Rector of St. Paul’s College some extent confidence was regained campaign. The second column on the University of Manitoba when the polls correctly gauged out- left provides the dates in which surveys Christopher Adams worked comes for the 2014 Quebec and 2015 were conducted, with the third col- in the polling industry from Alberta elections. 1995 to 2012 for Goldfarb umn providing the methodology used Consultants, the Angus Reid Looking back at the Canadian federal by each firm. When comparing the Group, and Probe Research. He elections of 2006, 2008, and 2011, results with the polling results, Nanos is a writer and frequent media pollsters provided generally reliable Research with telephone surveys and commentator on issues relating to politics and polling. He is measures of voter intentions in the Forum with IVR interviewing were the recently the author of “Polling final days of the federal campaign, closest in predicting the massive shift and Canadian Elections,” in with most being within a few points in support to the Liberal Party. The “The Informed Citizens’ Guide of the actual vote for each of the major right hand column provides the total to Elections,” special issue, The Journal of Parliamentary and parties. Furthermore, during the 2011 difference for each firm when compar- Political Law (2015). federal election in which pollsters ing their polling results with the actual used various survey methods, includ- vote percentages for each party. In all @Bullmoose54321 ing surveys based on Interactive Voice cases, with one exception, the closer Response (IVR) technologies, online to the October 19 date that the surveys surveys, and the traditional live tele- were fielded, the smaller the total dif- phone interview, most firms captured ference was between a pollster’s num- shifts in the final week towards Jack bers and the actual outcome. But even Layton’s NDP (Adams, 2015: 365). for those firms with relatively higher figures of difference, the differences

Final Pre-election polls, 2015 Polling Firm and Media Outlet Fielding Dates Method CPC Liberal NDP Bloc Grn Difference Actual Vote October 19, 2015 Vote 31.9% 39.5% 19.7% 4.7% 3.4% - Nanos/Globe&Mail-CTV Oct 16-18 N=2,400 Telephone 30.5 39.1 19.7 5.5 4.6 3.8 Forum/Toronto Star Oct 16-18 N=1,373 IVR 30 40 20 6 3 5.2 EKOS/iPolitics Oct 16-18 N= 2,122 IVR/Telephone 31.9 35.8 20.4 4.9 5.6 6.8 Ipsos-Reid/Global News Oct 15-17 N=2,503 Online/ 31 38 22 4 4 6.0 Telephone Léger/-Journal de Oct 13-16 N=2,086 Online 30 38 22 6 4 7.6 Montréal Angus Reid Institute Oct 13-16 N=2,022 Online 31 35 22 5 5 9.6 Mainstreet/Postmedia Oct 14-15 N=5,546 IVR 33 38 21 5 4 4.8

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 108 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Canadian Pollsters and the 2015 Canadian Election: Did They Get It Right?

are mostly quite small within each of ber of summed differences between the columns for each party. the outcomes and what the firm It is one thing to gauge popular support projected for each party (66), followed for each national party. It is another by Eric Grenier’s website (82), and the thing to predict electoral outcomes. Laurier Institute (102). In the case of This is in large part due to the electoral Grenier’s projection, a margin of error system using the first-past-the-post for the number of expected seats was system by which 338 ridings serve as also provided, with a range of 124 to a the basis by which parties are elected to 161 seats. Such margins were neither the House of Commons. One might say, provided by EKOS nor the Laurier therefore, that polls are at best “a rudi- Institute. Regardless of whether or not mentary way for assessing how many margins were calculated, none of the seats each party will win” (Adams, three predicted a Liberal majority. 2015: 365). To address this deficiency, This brief overview of the results from many now turn to seat projections pollsters and those providing seat pro- based on polling data and discernible jections shows that each firm was able swings in the results to determine to show the direction in which the probable outcomes (for a detailed ac- October electoral winds were blowing. count of these models see Kay, 2009). Those who followed the polls, includ- While the seat-projection models ing this writer, were not surprised to might have worked for some elections, witness the victory of Justin Trudeau’s this was not the case in the Canadian Liberal Party, yet from this summary federal election of 2011 in that they all were undoubtedly surprised at the failed to foretell the Conservative size of the majority win. majority victory (Turcotte, 2011: 210). For 2015, Table 2 provides results from REFERENCES three sets of projections provided Adams, Christopher. “Polling and Canadian just prior to the end of the national Elections,” in “The Informed Citizens’ Guide to Elections,” special issue, The Journal of campaign, with the right hand col- Parliamentary and Political Law(1995). umn showing the summed difference Kay, Barry. “A Regional Swing Model for between projections provided by EKOS, Converting Canadian Popular Vote Into the Laurier Institute, and the Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008.” Paper threehundredandeight.com website presented to the Canadian Political Science operated by Eric Grenier and released Association annual meeting, 2009. through the CBC. They demonstrate Moore, David. The Super Pollsters: How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in that while predicting the popular vote America. Four Walls Eight Windows, 1992. is increasingly an exact science, it is far Turcotte, André. “Polls: Seeing Through the more difficult to project seat counts. Glass Darkly,” in Jon Pammett and Christopher For all three sites, the 2015 projections Dornan, eds., The Canadian Federal Election of 2011. Dundurn Press, 2011. provided by EKOS had the least num- Seat projections Date of Projection CPC LPC NDP BQ Grn Differences in Seats Actual Seats 338 Seats 99 184 44 10 1 EKOS Oct 19 338 Seats 116 151 54 16 1 66 Eric Grenier Oct 18 338 Seats 118 146 66 7 1 82 Laurier Institute Oct 18 338 Seats 115 140 79 3 1 102

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 109 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Better Together? Poll Aggregation and Canadian Election Forecasting

Do polls affect electoral fortunes in A method to estimate and correct for Canada? Evidence of a bandwagon these problems among individual effect is inconclusive, but recent em- polling firms is poll aggregation. The pirical evidence suggests that many basic premise of poll aggregation is Canadians do indeed use polls as polit- simple: information from multiple ical information to inform their vote.1 polls is systematically combined to in- The emergence of strategic voting as crease the precision of a forecast when a dominant theme during the 2015 compared to the use of a single poll. federal election campaign brings poll- Canada is no stranger to the phenom- Gregory Eady ing into sharp focus as an influential enon of poll aggregation, with Éric Senior Data Scientist source of information for voters. To Grenier’s threehundredeight.com being Vox Pop Labs the extent that voters rely on election the most well-known of a handful of ag- forecasts to make voting decisions, the Gregory Eady is a doctoral gregators. During the 2015 campaign, candidate in the Department accuracy of these forecasts could have threehundredeight.com registered of Political Science at the significant repercussions. 7.1 million hits, which, according to University of Toronto. His Canadian polling firms have a mixed Grenier, “smashed the site’s previous research focuses on the development of statistical record when it comes to predicting records set during the 2011 federal methods for public opinion election outcomes. Although a num- election campaign.” The performance research and their application ber of pollsters’ forecasts of the 2015 of the site is an indication of the grow- to questions related to electoral federal election were within reason- ing popularity of poll aggregation as behaviour. able proximity to the actual results, a source of political information in @GregoryEady few if any were unscathed in previous Canada. www.voxpoplabs.com elections where polls deviated sub- The accuracy of Canadian poll ag- stantially from the final outcome. gregators in forecasting election Clifton van der Linden Many pollsters tacitly if not explicitly outcomes, however, has not kept Founder and Director acknowledge that simple random apace with the performance of their Vox Pop Labs samples are no longer achievable for American counterparts, which have the most part. The consequence is that Clifton van der Linden is consistently produced reliable fore- the creator of Vote Compass much more emphasis is placed on sta- casts despite systematic variation in and a doctoral candidate in tistical adjustment for data after they vote intention. For example, Simon the Department of Political have been collected; these practices Jackman and Drew Lizner’s use of Science at the University of differ by polling firm. These differ- Toronto. He is a frequent media dynamic linear models, which pro- commentator on elections, ences can lead to systematic variation vide a systematic way to incorporate politics, and public opinion. His in vote intention estimates among information from multiple polls, have academic work has appeared in 2 polling firms. Conceptually, this vari- proven highly successful in the Amer- Political Science, The Canadian ation can be distinguished by “house Journal of Opinion, and the ican case. effects,” the degree to which each Journal of International Law and To test whether this approach would International Relations. pollster’s vote intention estimates systematically deviate from the in- increase the accuracy of forecasting @CliffvdLinden dustry average unique; and by “bias,” Canadian election outcomes, Vox www.voxpoplabs.com which can be defined as the difference Pop Labs developed a poll aggregator between where each pollster estimates called The Signal, which applies such the result to be in expectation and a model to campaign polls as they where it ends up in reality. were released throughout the 2015

1 André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, and Neil Nevitte, “Do Polls Influence the vote?” inCapturing Campaign Effects, ed. H.E. Brady and R. Johnston (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2006), 263-279. Yannick Dufresne, Gregory Eady, Jennifer Hove, Peter Loewen, and Clifton van der Linden, “Media Campaign Events during the 2011 Canadian Federal Election: Examining Campaign Effects with Big Data,” working paper available online at: http://voxpoplabs.com/ papers/pollEffects2011.pdf. 2 Mark Pickup and Richard Johnston, “Campaign Trial Heats as Electoral Information: Evidence from the 2004 and 2006 Canadian Federal Elections,” Electoral Studies 26 (2007): 460-76.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 110 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Better Together? Poll Aggregation and Canadian Election Forecasting

Canadian federal election campaign. Canadian federal election campaign, Given the apparent public appetite for The Signal offered the most robust election forecasts and the increasing if result. On average, its final vote share anecdotal sense that the information forecast was 0.9 percentage points they contain may influence strategic from the resulting vote share for each voting decisions, testing new methods party, and 9 seats, on average, from to increase the accuracy of poll aggre- the seat share. It ranked second on gators in Canada is not only a matter both measures, but was more consis- of intellectual curiosity but also a tently accurate across the two. question of enhancing the diversity One cannot, of course, compare model and quality of voter information. performance using the results of a sin- These methods can also provide an gle election. Indeed, one election is ef- accurate rendering of how vote share fectively a single data point. Although changed during the campaign, as we have compared the model to other displayed in the graph below. well-known forecasters for past feder- This graph shows vote share for each al and provincial elections, for which party across time during the 2015 the model performs exceptionally Canadian federal election campaign. well, it is only with more data—more Daily vote share estimates were calcu- elections—that its performance will lated using a dynamic linear model, and should be judged. adjusting for pollster house effects, as Despite the use of a simple propor- estimated using polls from 2011 until tional swing model, the seat share election day and using the election model proved highly successful.3 Were result itself as additional data with a the vote share for each region known house effect of zero. in advance, the result would have been Ultimately, of the dozen poll aggrega- very close to the actual ­election result. tors that provided forecasts of the 2015 (see Table 2)

This graph shows vote share for each party across time during the 2015 Canadian federal election campaign. Daily vote share estimates were calculated using a dynamic linear model, adjusting for pollster house effects, as estimated using polls from 2011 until election day and using the election result itself as additional data with a house effect of zero.

3 The model works by adjusting each riding’s 2011 federal election vote share up or down by a constant so that the average vote share for a party across ridings in a given region is equal to the vote share forecast for that region as a whole. More technically, the proportional swing model adjusted riding-level vote share proportionally on the logistic scale using a multinominal function such that the parties’ vote share at the riding level summed to one. Average party vote share in each region was weighted by voter turnout in the 2011 federal election.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 111 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Better Together? Poll Aggregation and Canadian Election Forecasting

Ultimately, poll aggregation provides warrants careful scrutiny, with a view important and potentially influen- toward providing Canadians with tial information to voters during consistently accurate information election campaigns, particularly in upon which to base their decisions. In cases where voters are compelled to the future, we hope that these meth- vote strategically. One can speculate ods will continue to be refined, and that certain poll aggregators com- their benefits and drawbacks fleshed mand more public credibility than do out using appropriate measures of individual polls. The methodology success. employed by poll aggregators thus

Table 1

SEAT SHARE LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC Other MAE CVM Election Model (CVM Marketing Inc.) 178 115 44 1 0 0 5.3 The Signal (Vox Pop Labs) 160 120 50 7 1 0 9 The Globe’s Election Forecast (Paul Fairie) 149 115 62 11 1 0 11.6 Prediction Markets (Sauder School of Business) 147 115 67 7 2 0 13.3 CBC Poll Tracker/308 (Éric Grenier) 146 118 66 7 1 0 13.7 Predictionator (David Akin) 149 105 81 2 1 0 14.3 CDN Election Watch 142 119 66 10 1 0 14 Election Atlas (J.P. Kirby) 142 116 68 11 1 0 14 Too Close to Call (Bryan Breguet) 137 120 72 8 1 0 16.3 Le calcul électoral (Pierre Martin) 137 117 76 6 1 0 16.8 LISPOP ( University) 140 115 79 3 1 0 17 Election Almanac (David MacDonald) 138 120 78 1 1 0 18.3

VOTE SHARE LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC Other MAE CDN Election Watch 37.3 32.4 20.1 4.9 4.3 — 0.8 The Signal 36.7 32 20.4 5.2 4 1.5 0.9 Too Close to Call 36.8 32.5 21.4 4.6 4.1 — 1.1 CBC Poll Tracker/308 37.2 30.9 21.7 4.9 4.4 0.9 1.3 CVM Election Model 37 31 22 4 4 — 1.4 Le calcul électoral 36.8 31.8 22.7 4.2 4.5 — 1.5 The Globe’s Election Forecast — — — — — — — Predictionator — — — — — — — Prediction Markets — — — — — — — Election Atlas — — — — — — — LISPOP — — — — — — — Election Almanac — — — — — — —

This table shows the mean absolute error (MAE) for both seat share and vote share for each of the poll aggregators during the 2015 Canadian federal election. Because only The Signal and ThreeHundredEight provided vote share estimates for “Other” parties/candidates, only vote share for the major parties are used in the calculation of MAE.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 112 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Better Together? Poll Aggregation and Canadian Election Forecasting

Table 2

Party Estimated seat share Actual seat share Liberal 178 184 Conservative 112 99 NDP 42 44 Bloc Québécois 5 10 Green 1 1 Other 0 0

This table shows seat shares estimates from the Signal’s proportional swing model in which each region’s actual election vote share is used to adjust each riding. In other words, if regional vote share had been estimated perfectly, this table shows what the seat share estimates would have been.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 113 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Digital Technology and Civic Engagement: The Case of Vote Compass

Elections are increasingly contested ment. Enthusiasm about the prospects online, with digital emerging as a of digital technology for enhancing third front in the so-called air and public participation in the mechan- ground offensives of campaign ics of government has even resulted strategy. But digital technologies also in the emergence of a new class of enable new modes of citizenship and technology known as civic tech. It is serve as platforms for democratic difficult, however, to gauge the impact participation. that Canadian civic tech has had on The grassroots digital initiatives that participation. In very few cases do we Yannick Dufresne rose to prominence during the 2015 have sufficient empirical evidence to Senior Analyst Canadian federal election campaign determine whether Canadian initia- Vox Pop Labs were largely focused on one of three tives have contributed to their desired Yannick Dufresne is a strategic aims. The first was to in- outcomes. postdoctoral fellow in the crease voter turnout, with specific em- One of those few cases where suffi- Department of Political Science at Laval University. His work phases on new voters and the youth cient data exists to offer preliminary has appeared in the Canadian vote. The second was to encourage insight into the effects of civic tech is Journal of Political Science, strategic voting, largely in an effort to that of Vote Compass, a civic engage- Journal of Behavioral and Social unseat Conservative incumbents in ment application run during election Science, Parliamentary Affairs and Political Marketing in Canada ridings where a Liberal or New Demo- campaigns. The premise of the appli- (UBC Press, 2012). cratic Party candidate had a reason- cation is simple: users are surveyed on able chance of success. The third was a range of topics germane to a par- @YannickDufresne to increase political knowledge among ticular campaign and, on the basis of www.voxpoplabs.com the electorate by presenting informa- their responses, are provided with an tion about the political parties in an assessment of their proximity to the Clifton van der Linden engaging and accessible format. political parties running for election.1 Founder and Director The outcome of the federal election Vote Compass is a non-partisan Vox Pop Labs campaign offers anecdotal support initiative developed and operated by Clifton van der Linden is for the efficacy of digital initiatives. independent research organization the creator of Vote Compass Voter turnout campaigns such as Vote Vox Pop Labs in consultation with and a doctoral candidate in Nation and established youth-engage- some of Canada’s more distinguished the Department of Political ment organizations such as Apathy political scientists. Its Canadian itera- Science at the University of Toronto. He is a frequent media is Boring likely enjoy a measure of tions—of which there have been ten commentator on elections, satisfaction at the spike in eligible vot- to date—are sponsored and promoted politics, and public opinion. His ers who cast a ballot in Canada’s 42nd by CBC-Radio Canada. Vote Compass academic work has appeared in general election. Similarly, strategic registered upwards of 1.9 million Political Science, The Canadian Journal of Opinion, and the voting initiatives such as Leadnow’s unique users during the 2011 Cana- Journal of International Law and Vote Together campaign arguably take dian federal election and 1.8 million International Relations. it as validation of their efforts that during the 2015 federal election. many of the ridings they targeted saw @CliffvdLinden The Vote Compass initiative has www.voxpoplabs.com their recommended candidate emerge three primary aims: first, to increase victorious. electoral literacy by making available Evidence from American studies information regarding the policy pro- suggests that there is good reason to posals of the various political parties suspect that online initiatives such as and helping users situate themselves these do tend to boost civic engage- in the political landscape; second,

1 For information on the Vote Compass methodology for determining user and party positions see http://voxpoplabs.com/votecompass/methodology.pdf.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 114 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Digital Technology and Civic Engagement: The Case of Vote Compass

to hold parties accountable to their from the CES, however, concerns publicly-stated policy positions; and the relationship between the use of third, to compel parties to be respon- Vote Compass and voter turnout. sive to the citizens they are serving Vote Compass was not designed as a by acting as a unique source of public get-out-the-vote initiative. Its oper- opinion data. Of these, only the first is ators are committed to promoting currently empirically verifiable. an informed vote above all else. But The 2011 Canadian Election Study regression analyses show that the use (CES), which asked respondents of Vote Compass has a statistically sig- whether or not they used Vote Com- nificant effect on its users’ propensity pass during the course of the election to vote. That effect remains significant campaign, demonstrates a positive when controlling for conventional correlation between political knowl- socio-demographics, political aware- edge and Vote Compass use. While ness, political interest, and partisan- this is a promising preliminary ship. The effect on turnout is even finding, CES data do not permit closer stronger when analyzed by age group. examination into the causal direction The younger users are, the stronger between the two variables. Respon- the effect of using Vote Compass on dents were asked political knowl- their propensity to vote. For instance, edge questions in the same wave as voters aged 18 to 24 are estimated to Vote Compass use, which prevents be 10% more likely to vote after using us from stating conclusively as to Vote Compass than voters in the same whether Vote Compass use increases age category that did not use the knowledge or—conversely—whether application. knowledgeable users have a higher The findings from the Vote Compass propensity to use Vote Compass. Of case are promising for proponents course, these effects are not mutually of civic tech in Canadian elections. exclusive. Using statistical matching While further research into the ef- methods to disentangle the causal fects of Vote Compass and other civic relationship produces results that engagement initiatives for electoral indicate a positive effect of Vote Com- literacy and voter turnout is warrant- pass use on political knowledge, but ed, preliminary findings indicate that more research is required to validate it had a meaningful and substantial these preliminary findings. effect on civic engagement in Canada The more noteworthy observation in 2015.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 115 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Change above All Else: The Public Opinion Dynamics That Led to the Liberal Majority

David Coletto, PhD A desire for change is a powerful force weekend, 60% of eligible voters said CEO in an election campaign and, more it was definitely time for a change of Abacus Data than anything else, it came to domi- government compared to only 20% David Coletto is founding nate voting behaviour and campaign who felt that the Conservative Party partner and CEO of public strategy in the 2015 Canadian general should definitely be re-elected. opinion research firm Abacus election. When the campaign began, Second, the Conservatives’ efforts Data. He is the author (with the three parties were separated by Bryan Breguet) of “The Accuracy to stoke fears about the alternatives of Public Polls in Provincial no more than seven points in most were unsuccessful. Most voters were Elections,” Canadian Political publicly released polling. The Liberals, not afraid of either an NDP or Liberal Science Review 9, no. 4 (2015). a party that started the campaign in government. third, ended up winning. How did this @ColettoD happen? Lastly, efforts to discredit Liberal Lead- www.abacusdata.ca er Justin Trudeau stopped working. In Data collected by Abacus Data the months prior to the campaign, the Maciej Czop through six waves of survey research Conservative ads arguing that he was demonstrates that there was not a Analyst “just not ready” were effective. Posi- Abacus Data single campaign, but two campaigns tive impressions of Trudeau declined focused on two separate ballot ques- from a high of 35% in February 2015 to Maciej Czop is a market research tions. The first campaign focused on analyst at Abacus Data. He holds a low of 30% in July 2015, just before an undergraduate degree in whether the Conservative Party and, the election was called. By the end of Communications and Political more importantly, its leader, Stephen the campaign, Trudeau’s favourables Science, and a post-graduate Harper, deserved to be re-elected reached their highest point (44%), certificate in Market Research and whether a credible alternative and Business Intelligence. nine points higher than NDP Leader was available to voters who desired Tom Mulcair and 17 points higher www.abacusdata.ca change. The second campaign, operat- than Harper. ing in parallel, was about which op- position party was best able to defeat At the same time as the Conservatives the Conservatives. were attempting to improve their own opinion environment, the opposition In power for almost a decade, Harper parties were campaigning to define and the Conservative Party faced an the choices available to those who electorate that craved change. At the wanted change. start of the campaign, 50% of eligible voters had a negative impression of Support for the federal NDP rose the prime minister, and three in four sharply in the months following the believed it was time for a change, most surprise win of its provincial coun- of whom felt it very strongly about it. terpart in Alberta. But this newfound support—most polls had the NDP Facing such an environment, the only leading in vote intention and Mulcair way that the Conservative Party could was the most popular leader in the hope to be re-elected was by softening country—was likely soft, as many the desire for change, raising doubts voters also admitted to knowing little about the alternatives, and ensuring about the NDP leader. that “change” voters did not consoli- date behind one of the primary alter- In an effort to position the party as a natives. In the end, the Conservative safe alternative to the Conservatives, campaign was unable to achieve any the NDP promised to balance the of these objectives. federal budget if it won. Mulcair was positioned as an experienced leader First, the desire for change held steady who Canadians could trust to deliver throughout the campaign. In the final

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 116 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE Change above All Else: The Public Opinion Dynamics That Led to the Liberal Majority

the change they were looking for. This and leader were most compelling. strategy was dependent on the desire What started out as a 16 point lead for for change sustaining itself but also the NDP among those who definitely on a weak performance by Trudeau. wanted change became a 16 point lead In contrast, the Liberals offered for the Liberals at the end of the cam- “change voters” a more ambitious paign, leading to the surprise majority and urgent version of change than win for the Liberals on election day. the NDP. Promising to run deficits to The 2015 Canadian general election pay for investments in infrastructure was about change and there was little and committing to raise taxes on the incumbent Conservatives could higher income Canadians to pay for do to reverse it. The Liberal campaign a “middle-class tax cut,” the Liberals offered a more appealing choice to were more successful at positioning those who craved a new government themselves as the anti-Conservative, and when it became clear that Justin anti-Harper party. Furthermore, Trudeau was best positioned to defeat Trudeau’s performance relieved those the Harper Conservatives, change vot- worried about his suitability to be ers flocked to the Liberal side. prime minister. To review all the data cited in this ar- By offering a more compelling choice, ticle, please visit http://abacusdata.ca/ the Liberals persuaded those voters wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Data- whose primary objective was to defeat from-UBC-Press_Samara-Paper.pdf. the Conservatives that the Liberal plan

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 117 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Youth Vote in the 2015 Election

Allison Harell Young people in Canada have been the impression that their vote is more notoriously absent from the ballot likely to matter, which can be particu- Associate Professor, Department of Political Science box in recent Canadian elections. larly important for those who have not Université du Québec à Falling overall turnout in Canada has yet established a long-term pattern of Montréal (UQAM) largely been attributed to the failure of voting. Allison Harell is a collaborator younger generations to participate in If we consider the major political par- on the Canadian Election Study elections. One of the primary factors ties’ platforms (see the table below), and co-investigator of the behind this is young people’s lack of the parties varied in the amount and Canadian Youth Study. She is co- interest and knowledge about elec- founder and co-director of the tone of their focus on youth. The Laboratoire de communication toral politics. Unlike past elections, Liberals and the NDP had 66 and 61 politique et d’opinion publique. there is reason to believe that the 2015 mentions respectively. In the Lib- She recently authored, with Canadian federal election garnered eral platform, mentions of youth are Stuart Soroka and Kiera Ladner, more interest and excitement among “Public Opinion, Prejudice and frequently linked to job training and the Racialization of Welfare young people. opportunities, as well as to enhancing in Canada,” Ethnic and Racial Overall turnout suggests that this engagement in public life. Other key Studies 37, no. 14 (2014). election was far more likely to mo- messages directed towards the young, politique.uqam.ca/corps- bilize voters than recent past elec- refer to increasing student grants, professoral/profes- tions have. Elections Canada initially as well as allowing the repayment of seurs/167-harell-allison.html reported that 68.5% of eligible voters student loans only once a minimum participated in this election, up from yearly income of $25,000 is attained. Tania Gosselin 58% and 61% in the previous two elec- The NDP program also emphasizes job Associate Professor, Department of tions. opportunities, adding that it would Political Science While numbers specific to youth are ensure fairer treatment of young Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM) not yet available, uncertainty about workers, notably though access to the outcome likely drew their interest. employment insurance and better Tania Gosselin is co-founder and People tend to vote more often when protection by modifying the Labour co-director of the Laboratoire de communication politique et elections are competitive, and this Code. The Green Party featured overall d’opinion publique (LACPOP) at election was particularly exciting on the smallest number of mentions UQAM. She is a co-investigator that front. The election began with a about young people. of the European Media Systems tight three-way race. This gives voters Survey and the author of « Le soutien à l’intégration européenne dans les nouveaux États membres, » Politique 1 européenne 38, no. 3 (2012), National party platform mentions targeting young people where she was also guest editor of this special issue. “young” (voters / Canadians / people / politique.uqam.ca/corps- Party person / farmers / workers) “students” “youth” Total Platform Length (pages) professoral/profes- seurs/165-gosselin-tania.html Conservative 9 22 18 49 159 Green 5 12 7 24 44 Liberal 20 38 8 66 88 NDP 20 14 27 61 81

1 The table excludes mentions appearing in budget sections and tables. One mention of “young British Columbians” was also counted in the first column. The Bloc Québécois was excluded because their platform was not available in a format that could be easily coded.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 118 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE The Youth Vote in the 2015 Election

Given its relative length (almost twice This had the dual effect of associating as many pages as the Liberal plat- him with young voters while poten- form) and its relatively low number tially turning these same voters away of mentions (49), the Conservative from the Conservatives. The tendency campaign manifesto was arguably of youth to shy away from right-wing the least youth-oriented. Among the parties means that this election more nine mentions of young Canadians, generally, combined with the CPC’s three related to young people who join failure to speak much to this constitu- street gangs or terrorist organizations. ency, made the often-heard expression Similarly, out of 18 mentions of youth, of “ABC: Anything But Conserva- 10 related to gangs or radicalization. tive”—particularly salient among “Student(s)” appeared 22 times, often youth. in connection with indirect support The mobilization effort by parties measures such as increases for the may have been helped as well by new Registered Education Savings Plan efforts by Elections Canada to reach (RESP) and tax credits for scholar- young voters. In particular, Elections ships. Canada ran a unique pilot project that The difference in party platforms par- set up 72 temporary returning offices allels the tendency of young people to where people could vote by special prefer centre and left-leaning parties. ballot ahead of election day. Primarily, This likely benefited the Liberals in these were placed on 39 university an election in which, reports suggest, campuses. Over 70,000, primarily it ran a particularly effective ground young, voters took advantage of these campaign. The Liberal Party also at- temporary polling stations. tracted young people because of the In the end, the 2015 Canadian federal relative youth of its leader, combined election provided good conditions with its message of change. Polling for increasing turnout among young data suggests that Justin Trudeau and electors: a competitive election that the Liberal Party “brand” were both included mobilization efforts aimed most appreciated by those under 30. at youth and a centrist party led by In contrast, the Conservative Party’s a young leader with a message of “Just Not Ready” criticism of Trudeau change. called into question his relative youth.

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 119 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE A Branding (and Rebranding) Reality

Alex Marland Academic analysis is penetrating will be its projection as the party of Associate Professor, Political when it is provocative. This is espe- national unity and of Canadian fed- Science, and Associate Dean of cially important where communica- eralism. It is no coincidence the Lib- Arts tion, strategy, and democracy are con- eral Party’s electoral fortunes suffered Memorial University of cerned. Some matters emerging from with the diminished threat of Que- Newfoundland Election 2015 that warrant deeper bec nationalism. The 2015 election Alex Marland researches the consideration include the following. presented an opening for the Trudeau use of political marketing and Liberals to propel national unity to strategic communication by 1. The election was foremost about Canadian political parties. He is leaders’ personal brands. In cam- the forefront on another dimension: the author of the forthcoming paign 2015, all parties and the media uniting the country in the face of an book Brand Command: Canadian were squarely focused on leadership, acerbic Conservative government and Politics and Democracy in the Age prime minister. An image of unity, of Message Control (UBC Press, to the detriment of the countless indi- 2016) and is co-editor, with viduals who are involved in a delib- patriotism, and Canadian values cuts Thierry Giasson, of the UBC erative and pluralistic democracy. So to the core of the Liberal brand. Press series Communication, much energy was invested in discuss- Strategy, and Politics. 4. The Conservative Party handed a ing personalities that many Canadians majority government to the Liber- www.mun.ca/posc/people/ likely employed valence politics: their als by failing to launch provocative Marland.php vote was predicated on little more negative television advertising in than whether or not they liked and the campaign’s final hours. The trusted a leader, in the expectation Liberal Party ran negative ads suc- that person was leading a party whose cessfully in the final days of Election policies were in line with the elector’s 2004, invoking fear about the Harper values. If it is a problem that commu- Conservatives’ policy stances. Perhaps nication trends are contributing to the Canadians’ celebrity-style attach- centralization of authority then we ment to Justin Trudeau is why the must assume this trend will not van- Conservatives got uncharacteristically ish because a new head of government weak-kneed when so much was on the happens to be charismatic. line. Understanding why Conservative 2. The news media and social me- strategists chose not to deploy hard- dia are like a swarm of bees, buzz- hitting negative advertising using ing from the latest opinion survey sinister tones and horror-style images to the newest pseudo-scandal to would be helpful for political market- celebrity-style diversions to real ing scholarship. news. In campaign 2015, media 5. There was insufficient public swarming ranged from the serious scrutiny of the platform of the (the Duffy trail, Syrian refugee crisis) party that now controls the House to the semi-serious (candidates’ dis- of Commons and the executive missals for past comments posted on branch of government. Despite the social media) to the ridiculous (discus- extraordinarily long campaign, there sion about Stephen Harper’s reference was little discussion about the finer to “old stock Canadians” during one of points of the Liberal platform. For the leaders’ debates). In the moment, instance, in Parliament, the Liberal dramatic media coverage seems all- Party has plans for more free votes, a enveloping and urgent. Phenomenal non-partisan process for appointing resolve is required by political parties senators, the creation of a prime min- to stick to a core brand message. ister’s Question Period, reduced use 3. The Liberal Party brand’s prima- of omnibus bills, and legislation by ry selling point was, is, and always mid-2017 to enact electoral reform. In government, the PMO and ministers’

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 120 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE A Branding (and Rebranding) Reality

offices are to be subject to access to nadian Alliance. An image of intoler- information requests, an advertising ance caused a brand rethink among commissioner will provide oversight the many Canadians who demand of government ads, there will be gen- greater compassion. Promoting a po- der balance in cabinet, and scientists litical agenda of low taxes need not be will face few restrictions on speaking confused with matters that invoke the out publicly. Political parties will be Charter of Rights and Freedoms. limited in how much they can spend 7. Tom Mulcair ought to launch the between elections and an independent New Democratic Party into a major commission will organize leaders’ rebranding exercise. Social demo- election debates. Such procedural crats should engage in deep pan-Cana- matters are understandably “inside dian consultation about what today’s baseball” to most Canadians. The NDP is. This should culminate with a point is that on these and other poli- new party name, symbols and mar- cies the Liberals will be able to use ket positioning. The “new” in New their majority to push things through. Democratic Party is meaningless. An 6. The Conservative Party must un- acronym is difficult to form an emo- derstand that its brand’s kryptonite tional connection with, and it causes is the propensity of conservatives brand incongruity in French Canada and libertarians in its caucus to be (NDP versus NPD). The colour orange seen as mean and uncaring, espe- deserves a rethink, given that purple cially towards politically vulnerable now seems fashionable among pro- populations. During the campaign, gressives. If the NDP is indeed as ready the Conservative Party was tone deaf for change as it professed during the to public sympathy for the plight campaign, then change should begin of Syrian refugees, and the party’s with the party brand. gambit to provoke controversy about These are just some of the angles that women wearing niqabs bordered on party analysts and democratic theo- racism. These issues congealed to rists conducting campaign post-mor- reignite the politically incorrect image tems ought to consider. of its legacy parties, Reform and Ca-

CANADIAN ELECTION ANALYSIS 2015: COMMUNICATION, STRATEGY, AND DEMOCRACY 121 POINTS DE VUE SUR L’ÉLECTION CANADIENNE DE 2015. COMMUNICATION, STRATÉGIE ET DÉMOCRATIE