A SYSTEMS ENGINEERING REFERENCE MODEL FOR FUEL CELL POWER SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT T. L. BLANCHARD Bachelor of Arts in Physics Cleveland State University December, 1999 Submitted in Partial Fulfillment for the requirements for the degree MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INDUSTRIAL AND MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING at the CLEVELAND STATE UNIVERSITY November, 2011 © Copyright by T. L. Blanchard 2011 This Thesis has been approved for the Department of Mechanical Engineering And the college of Graduate Studies by Chairperson, Professor L. Kenneth Keys Date Mechanical Engineering Department Professor Paul P. Lin Date Mechanical Engineering Department Professor Walter Kocher Date Civil & Environmental Engineering Department DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to the memory of my mother, who taught me the value of observation, examination and, the appreciation of the quest for answers. She taught me that even the greatest of obstacles could be surmounted and the greatest task could be accomplished if one, fueled by the desire to persevere, used three gifts: the knowledge of knowing what needs to be achieved, the willingness to do the diligence of working hard to accomplish and lastly, the ability to tolerate the (sometimes, painful) discomfort of personal growth. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work would not have been possible without the help of numerous others. I have been blessed with good people who have been with me in good and bad times. They should share the pride I feel because they are a big part of what I have been able to accomplish. It is with immense gratitude that I acknowledge the support and help of my Professor, Dr. L. Kenneth Keys, for his sage advice, insightful criticisms, and patient encouragement in the writing of this thesis in innumerable ways. I would also like to thank Dr. Christopher Milliken, currently the Group Leader and the Production Manager at Technology Management Inc. whose steadfast support of this project was greatly needed and deeply appreciated. Much appreciation and gratitude to Benson Lee and Michael Petrik for giving me the opportunity to work in the fuel cell industry. This achievement would have been impossible to reach without the technical, business and entrepreneurial insights of Benison Lee and Dr. Robert Ruhl. I cannot find words to express my gratitude to Melinda Grigson for her help. Melinda‘s technical writing and computer skills are par excellent. Lastly, but not least, I owe my deepest gratitude to my father and the rest of my family for their undying support and love! A SYSTEMS ENGINEERING REFERENCE MODEL FOR FUEL CELL POWER SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT T. L. BLANCHARD ABSTRACT This research was done because today the Fuel Cell (FC) Industry is still in its infancy in spite over one-hundred years of development has transpired. Although hundreds of fuel cell developers, globally have been spawned, in the last ten to twenty years, only a very few are left struggling with their New Product Development (NPD). The entrepreneurs of this type of disruptive technology, as a whole, do not have a systems engineering ‗roadmap‘, or template, which could guide FC technology based power system development efforts to address a more environmentally friendly power generation. Hence their probability of achieving successful commercialization is generally, quite low. Three major problems plague the fuel cell industry preventing successful commercialization today. Because of the immaturity of FC technology and, the shortage of workers intimately knowledgeable in FC technology, and the lack of FC systems engineering, process developmental knowledge, the necessity for a commercialization process model becomes evident. vi This thesis presents a six-phase systems engineering developmental reference model for new product development of a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) Power System. For this work, a stationary SOFC Power System, the subject of this study, was defined and decomposed into a subsystems hierarchy using a Part Centric Top-Down, integrated approach to give those who are familiar with SOFC Technology a chance to learn systems engineering practices. In turn, the examination of the SOFC mock-up could gave those unfamiliar with SOFC Technology a chance to learn the basic, technical fundamentals of fuel cell development and operations. A detailed description of the first two early phases of the systems engineering approach to design and development provides the baseline system engineering process details to create a template reference model for the remaining four phases. The NPD reference template model‘s systems engineering process, philosophy and design tools are presented in great detail. Lastly, the thesis draws an overall picture of the major commercialization challenges and barriers (both technical and non-technical) that SOFC developers‘ encounter. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………………………….. …vi LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………………… ..vii CHAPTER I THE PURPOSE AND THE OUTLINE OF THE THESIS………………… …….1 1.1 Introduction…….…………………………………………………. 1 1.2 The Thesis‘ Focus and Oranganization….………………………. 2 1.3 The Breakdown of the Thesis……………………………………...3 II INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………... 5 2.1 The History of Energy Sources and Technology Change………… 5 2.2 The Energy Technology S-Curve………………………………….6 2.3 Non-renewable Energy Source – Wood…………………………...8 2.4 Non-renewable Energy Source – Coal as Fuel…………………….8 2.5 Non-renewable Energy Source – Whale Oil…………………….. ..9 1.6 Non-renewable Energy Source - Crude Oil………………………. 9 2.7 Non-renewable Energy Source – Natural Gas…………………... 10 2.8 Non-renewable Energy Source – Nuclear Energy………………. 11 2.9 Renewable Energy Sources are Needed………………………… 12 2.10 Types of Renewable Energy Sources…………………………….13 2.11 Solar Power Systems……………………………………………..13 2.12 Wind Farms……………………………………………………… 14 2.13 Wind and Fuel Cell Technologies Combo………………………. 14 2.14 Biofuels…………………………………………………………. 15 viii 2.15 Algaculture………………………………………………………. 17 2.16 Hydrogen Production on the Spot………………………………. 18 2.17 A Few of the Accelerators of the SOFC Power System…………19 2.18 The Engineering Stages of a System (Product) Lifecycle………. 19 2.19 The Proper Implementation of Systems Engineering…………… 20 2.20 A Total Life-cycle Approach……………………………………. 23 2.21 The Reasons Products Fail and What Can Be Done About It……24 III THE HISTORY OF FUEL CELLS, THEIR MATERIALS, THE GIRD AND THE NEGAWTT…………………………………………………. 31 3.1 Introduction……………………………………………………… 31 3.2 From Davy‘s Experiments………………………………………. 32 3.3 Faraday, Hittorf and Others………………………………………32 3.4 Cavendish……………………………………………………….. 34 3.5 Grove, Mond and Langer……………………………………….. 35 3.6 Ostwald‘s Predictions…………………………………………… 37 3.7 Nernst…………………………………………………………… 38 3.8 What were Helmholtz and Ostwald doing? …………………….. 39 3.9 The Search for the Dry Fuel Cells………………………………. 41 3.10 Temperature Ranges and Materials…………………………….. 41 3.11 The Bacon Cell………………………………………………….. 41 3.12 The Patents Mill…………………………………………………. 42 3.13 Fuel Cells through the 1950s, the 1960s, and the 1970s………… 43 3.14 Almost a Hit in the 1990s……………………………………….. 44 3.15 The Meaning of Success………………………………………… 44 3.16 One in a Million? ……………………………………………….. 45 ix 3.17 Bloom Energy…………………………………………………… 45 3.18 One in a Large, Large Crowd…………………………………… 46 3.19 Meeting the Needs of Power Hungry Cities……………………. 49 3.20 Look there! We are grid locked! ……………………………….. 51 3.21 Improvements coming? ………………………………………… 53 3.22 Enter the Smart Grid…………………………………………….. 54 3.23 The Anatomy of the Grid and the Smart Grid‘s Function………. 54 3.24 Governmental and Customer Support for the Smart Grid - A Future Vision………………………………………………. 56 3.25 Obstacles the Smart Grid………………………………………... 58 3.26 Up in Thin Air – Negawatt……………………………………….58 3.27 Typical Electric Power Supply Systems………………………… 60 3.28 The Cost of Power………………………………………………. 64 3.29 Conclusion………………………………………………………. 67 IV THE INTRODUCTION TO THE SIX PHASE LIFECYCLE REFERENCE MODEL FOR INNOVATIVE/DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES……... 69 4.1 Introduction……………………………………………………… 69 4.2 Key‘s System Life Cycle Approach……………………………...70 4.3 The Learning Curve for SOFCs – Rivera-Tinoco (et al)………... 77 4.4 The General Learning Curve and Rivera-Tinoco‘s Model……… 80 4.5 System Engineering, Cost and Life-Cycle Engineering - Key Approach………………………………………………. 82 4.6 The NIST/NSPE Reference Document Modified by Keys……… 82 4.7 The System View – From Keys‘ and Blanchard‘s Perspectives….83 4.8 Systems Configuration Management – From Keys‘ And Blanchard‘s Perspective………………………………... 85 x 4.9 Quality Systems Engineering Management - From Keys‘ and Blanchard‘s Perspective…………………….85 4.10 Reliability Systems Engineering Management - From Keys‘ and Blanchard‘s Perspective ……………………86 4.11 Systems Testing Engineering - From Keys‘ and Blanchard‘s Perspective …………………….86 4.12 Concurrent Engineering – From Keys‘ and Blanchard‘s Perspective …………………...87 4.13 Conclusion – Playing the Game – The Players…………………. 92 V THE INRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN AND ADVANCE PLANNING PHASE – PHASE ONE……………………………………95 5.1 Introduction……………………………………………………… 95 5.2 The Conceptual Design & Advance Planning Phase……………. 95 5.3 The Major Activities of the Conceptual Design & Advance Planning Phase………………………………………………….96 5.4 In the Early Part of the Phase – The Major Focus………………. 97 5.5 The Middle Part of the Phase – The Major Focus………………. 98 5.6 The End of the Phase – The Major Focus……………………….. 99 5.7 Advance Planning……………………………………………… 100 5.8 The Milestones of the Conceptual Design and Advance Planning Phase consists