Evaluation of knowledge gained from the National Demonstration Test Catchment Final report WT15115 June 2020 Joint Water Evidence Programme This is a report of research carried out by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH), on behalf of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Authors: Old, G., Hutchins, M., Miller, J., Acreman, M., Bowes, M., Redhead, J., Trill, E., Blackstock, K., and Kuhfuss, L. © Crown copyright 2019 This information is licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. To view this licence, visit www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ This publication is available at www.gov.uk/government/publications Any enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us at [email protected] www.gov.uk/Defra Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... 1 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ 3 Supplementary materials.............................................................................................................. 4 Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... 5 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 6 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 15 1.1 Diffuse pollution from agriculture.............................................................................. 15 1.2 The policy context ..................................................................................................... 15 1.3 The Demonstration Catchment Initiative ................................................................... 16 1.4 The DTC catchments: Ecological status and pressures ................................................ 17 1.5 Aims and objectives of review ................................................................................... 18 1.6 Identifying end-users and the Steering Group ............................................................ 18 2 REA protocol development ................................................................................................. 19 2.1 Conceptual Model..................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Primary and Secondary Questions ............................................................................. 21 2.3 Scope of the work ..................................................................................................... 24 3 Establishing the Evidence Base ............................................................................................ 26 3.1 Screening the Evidence Base ..................................................................................... 27 3.2 Evidence Extraction................................................................................................... 28 3.3 Critical appraisal of Evidence ..................................................................................... 29 3.4 Synthesising information ........................................................................................... 31 3.5 Inclusion of non PICO and non SPICE documents........................................................ 32 3.6 Consulting, confirming and communicating findings .................................................. 32 4 Rapid Evidence Assessment: Intervention Effectiveness ....................................................... 34 4.1 Primary Physical: How effective were DTC agri-environment interventions in DTC catchments for improving and maintaining water quality?....................................................... 35 4.2 SP1: Have DTC monitoring methodologies resulted in robust evidence that enables the effectiveness of a variety of agri-environment interventions (in mitigating rural diffuse pollution) to be assessed at a range of scales from plot to catchment? .................................................... 37 4.3 SP2: Have DTC modelling methodologies resulted in robust evidence that enables the effectiveness of a variety of agri-environment interventions (in mitigating rural diffuse pollution) to be assessed at a range of scales from plot to catchment? .................................................... 39 4.4 SP3: Based on DTC evidence how effective are specific agri-environment interventions and combinations of measures in mitigating diffuse pollution and improving or maintaining ecology? Are these relevant to or assessed against regulatory standards? Does effectiveness change over time? .................................................................................................................. 40 4.5 SP4: What models were applied during the DTC programme? .................................... 43 4.6 SP5: Are models used to represent future scenarios (climatic conditions and landuse change) outside the bounds of the DTC dataset? ..................................................................... 43 4.7 SP6: What evidence is there from the DTC programme that the effectiveness of agri- environment interventions varied between DTC catchments and was this related to differences in the design and/or management of the interventions? ......................................................... 44 4.8 SP7: What evidence is there from DTC data that confounding factors (e.g. climate, non agricultural pollution) may be important in the interpretation of the results? .......................... 45 5 Rapid Evidence Assessment: Farmer engagement and implementation................................ 47 5.1 Primary Social Question: How effective were DTC engagement processes in fostering and retaining uptake of DTC agri-environmental interventions for improving and maintaining water quality? ................................................................................................... 48 5.2 SS1: What evidence is there that the DTC engagement methodologies appropriately informed, consulted and actively involved farmers and other stakeholders to maximise uptake of interventions? .................................................................................................................... 50 5.3 SS2: What evidence does the DTC data provide about non-participants and why they did not engage in the process?................................................................................................ 53 5.4 SS3: What evidence is there that the DTC considered behavioural factors when engaging farmers in implementing interventions? ................................................................... 55 5.5 SS4: What evidence is there of engagement and uptake of DTC interventions varying between catchments? ............................................................................................................ 58 5.6 SS5: What evidence is presented on the cost effectiveness and benefits of DTC interventions, during the initiative and for the five-year period beyond the end of the DTC initiative? ............................................................................................................................... 61 5.7 SS6: What evidence is provided that the confounding factors (e.g. existing non-DTC activities) were accounted for when reporting on engagement and uptake of DTC interventions? 64 6 Monitoring Methodologies ................................................................................................. 68 6.1 The DTC Monitoring network .................................................................................... 68 6.2 The monitoring equipment........................................................................................ 71 6.3 The choice of determinants ....................................................................................... 73 6.4 The sampling frequency ............................................................................................ 75 6.5 The presence of non-agricultural inputs..................................................................... 76 7 Modelling methodologies ................................................................................................... 80 7.1 Named models.......................................................................................................... 80 7.2 Other modelling tools developed in DTC .................................................................... 81 7.3 Summary of capability of model packages ................................................................. 81 8 General Insights regarding farmer engagement methodology .............................................. 83 8.1 Stakeholder analysis.................................................................................................. 84 8.2 Cross-sector networks............................................................................................... 85 8.3 Crafting the message................................................................................................. 85 8.4 Variety of approaches ............................................................................................... 86 8.5 Group Learning ......................................................................................................... 86 8.6 Working with