Buckinghamshire Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessment Update 2016 Report of Findings 05 December 2016 Opinion Research Services | The Strand • Swansea • SA1 1AF | 01792 535300 | www.ors.org.uk | [email protected] Opinion Research Services ▪ Atkins | Buckinghamshire Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessment Update December 2016 Opinion Research Services | The Strand, Swansea SA1 1AF Jonathan Lee | Nigel Moore | Scott Lawrence enquiries: 01792 535300 · [email protected] · www.ors.org.uk Atkins | Euston Tower, 286 Euston Road NW1 3AT Richard Ainsley enquiries: 020 7121 2280 · [email protected] · www.atkinsglobal.com © Copyright December 2016 2 Opinion Research Services ▪ Atkins | Buckinghamshire Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessment Update December 2016 Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................ 6 Summary of Key Findings and Conclusions 6 Household Projections ................................................................................................................................ 7 Affordable Housing Need ............................................................................................................................ 8 Objectively Assessed Housing Need ............................................................................................................ 9 Employment Land Requirements .............................................................................................................. 12 1. Introducing the Study .................................................................................. 14 Background to the project and wider policy context 14 National Planning Policy Framework ........................................................................................................ 14 Planning Practice Guidance ....................................................................................................................... 16 Duty to Co-operate .................................................................................................................................... 17 Overview of the HEDNA ............................................................................................................................ 18 2. Overview of the FEMA ................................................................................. 23 Local policy context and key socio-economic indicators 23 Aylesbury Vale District .............................................................................................................................. 23 Chiltern District ......................................................................................................................................... 26 South Bucks District ................................................................................................................................... 27 Wycombe District ...................................................................................................................................... 30 Other Relevant Cross-District Studies ....................................................................................................... 31 Key Socio-economic Indicators ................................................................................................................. 33 Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 37 3. Demographic Projections ............................................................................ 39 The starting point for Objectively Assessed Housing Need 39 Process for Establishing Objectively Assessed Housing Need ................................................................... 39 Official Household Projections .................................................................................................................. 40 Official Population Projections ............................................................................................................ 41 Population Trends ..................................................................................................................................... 41 Population Trends for Aylesbury Vale ................................................................................................. 42 Population Trends for Chiltern ............................................................................................................ 52 Population Trends for South Bucks ..................................................................................................... 56 Population Trends for Wycombe ........................................................................................................ 60 Population Projections Based on Local Circumstances ............................................................................. 64 Considering Migration Assumptions ................................................................................................... 66 Establishing Population Projections for Buckinghamshire HMA......................................................... 72 Establishing Household Projections for Buckinghamshire ........................................................................ 73 Household Population and Communal Establishment Population ..................................................... 73 Household Representative Rates ........................................................................................................ 74 Household Projections ........................................................................................................................ 75 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................ 76 3 Opinion Research Services ▪ Atkins | Buckinghamshire Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessment Update December 2016 4. Affordable Housing Need ............................................................................ 78 Identifying households who cannot afford market housing 78 Past Trends and Current Estimates of the Need for Affordable Housing ................................................. 79 Local Authority Data: Homeless Households and Temporary Accommodation ................................. 79 Census Data: Concealed Households and Overcrowding ................................................................... 80 English Housing Survey Data ............................................................................................................... 84 Housing Register Data ......................................................................................................................... 87 Households Unable to Afford their Housing Costs ............................................................................. 89 Establishing Affordable Housing Need ...................................................................................................... 91 Current Unmet Need for Affordable Housing ..................................................................................... 91 Projected Future Affordable Housing Need ........................................................................................ 94 Assessing the Overall Need for Affordable Housing ......................................................................... 101 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................. 103 5. Current Economic Market ......................................................................... 106 Analysis of the local property market and existing supply 106 Local Property Market ............................................................................................................................. 106 Offices ............................................................................................................................................... 106 Industrial ........................................................................................................................................... 107 Property Market Indicators ..................................................................................................................... 108 Office Rents ....................................................................................................................................... 108 Industrial Rents ................................................................................................................................. 109 Investment Deals ............................................................................................................................... 110 Leasing Activity .................................................................................................................................. 111 B-Class Commercial Property Market ............................................................................................... 113 Existing Supply ......................................................................................................................................... 115 Vacant Floorspace ............................................................................................................................. 115 Quality of Employment Supply.........................................................................................................