lNFORMATI0N TO USERS This manusuipt has bemn mpmduœd fiom the miaolim master- UMI films the text diredly from the Onphal or copy submii. Thus, smte lhesis and dissertation copies aie in typcrmiter fice, whik c(hers may be fiom any type of cornputer pfinbf. Thequalitydthi.irpPdudknird.p.ndintuponth.quilitydth.copy submitted. Broken or indisünct cokred or poor qualïity illusaatians and photognphs, pnnt b(scidthrwgh, sutstandard margins, and impmper alignment can adversely affect reproductiorr. In the unlikety evmt lhat the author did not send UMI a compkte manuscript and there are rnissing pages, these will be Med. Also, if unauümbd copyright material had do be mmoved, a Mlte will indikate the deleth. Ovenke materials (e-g-. rnaps. drawings, cham) are repIoduC8d by sectiming the original. beginning at the upper leff-hand ooror ar@ conbnuing from len to right in equal sdons Wh small overlaps, - Photographs induded in the original manuscript have kwn reproduœd xemgraphicalfy in this copy. Higher quaiii 6' x W bbck and whiie photographie prints are available for any pimtooraphs or illustrations -ring h mis copy (or an additional charge. Contact UMI di-y to order- Bell & Handl Infomiation and Learning 300 North Zeeb Road, AmArbor, MI 48108-1346 USA THE ~RNATIONALRECOGNmON OF A UNILATERAL SECESSIONOF QUEBEC: The Case of France and the United States Jonathan Paquin Graduate PFogiam in Political Science Submitted in partial fullillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Faculty of Graduate Studies The University of Western Ontario London, Ontario. September, 1999. National Library Bibiiotheque nationale du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliographie Services senrices bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON KtA ON4 OitawaON K1AW Canada Canada The author has granted a non- L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive licence allowing the exclusive permettant a la National Lfifary of Canada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or sell reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies of this thesis in microform, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la forme de microfiche/film, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantial extracts fiom it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or othedse de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisati011, This thesis explores the possible international recognition of a unilateral secession of Quebec by France and the United States. In the event where the federal govenunent of Canada would refuse to recopïze a winning referendum on sovereîgnty or to negotiate the secession of Quebec, the Quebec govenuncnt would certainly be forced to issue a unilateral declaration of independence (UDI), in an attempt to make Quebec intemationdy recognized as a country. The issue then becomes purely political, rather than legai. The success or the failure of a UDI depends rnainly on the reaction of France and the United States. This thesis argues that although a strong iink of fiendship exists between France and Quebec, it is unlikely that France would recognize a Quebec UDI. As for the United States, the author Merdemonstrates that for strategic and, most importantly, economic considerations, it is unlikely that the US. would recognize a unilateral secession of Quebec. The methodological approach used in this thesis incorporates. among other things, case studies. Although it is true that each case is unique, these case studies provide relevant information leading to the conclusion of this research. Finaliy, the author examines the issue of a hypothetical secession of Quebec through a realist theory of secession. Considerations such as national interests and power are taken into account. Since the basic principle of international recognition is essentially political, realpolitik rather than law and moral rights guides this research. This thesis is dedicated to my parents. Claude and hcef'e Puquin, for ail the interest they have show in what 1am doing. and for their constant encouragement. Avec toute mon Mection et ma gratitude. Acknowledgements are for me a very fun thing to write. They allow me to put aside the inteiiectuai ngour necessary for the Wfiting of this thesis by giving me the chance to thank aii the people who were then for me during this "obstacle race". First and foremost, I would me to thank my advisor, Professor Robert Young, who is the initial reason for starting rny adventure in London. Man of sound advice and, what's more, Que%écophiCe, Professor Young assisted me during my research, and ofien shared with me his opinions regarding the political future of Quebec. He also taught me one of the most important qualities of political science... doubt. Professeur Young je vous suis redevable de tout cela et d'encore plus. .. je vous suis également redevable d'une ouverture sur de nouveaux horizons. Avec tout mon respecr et mon admiration je vous remercie. 1 would also Wre to thank Winnie King, Dave MacDonald, Jeff MacLeod and George Wootten, as weii as a special thank you to Chris Dwomüuewicz and Michael Southern for having given me assistance to correct mistakes of aii kinds during the writing of this thesis. Without them, this thesis wodd probably have been written in French. Moreover, I wouid iike to give my regards to Chris Dwomikiewicz, Winnie King, Michael Southem and George Wootten for their fnendship, and Manuela Oiivo for her kllidness, her friendship and her good food. And, I cannot forget Professor Martin Westmacott for his kindness and his help. Thauks to ali of you for having made my Me so enjoyable at Western. Finaliy and most importantly, 1 would like to thank my parents. Plus précisément, j'aimerais remercier mon père pour sa générosité et suHout su complicité ainsi que ma mère pour son écoute, su compréhension et ses bons petits plats. Jonathan Paquin London, Ontario August, 1999 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Certificate of Examination Abstract AcknowIedgements Table of Contents List of Figures CHAPTER ONE - Theories of Secession Liberal Theories of Secession A Realist Theory of Secession neInternai Merits of Secessionist Claims The Factors of Disruption . Buchheit's Calcuhtiun of Legitimacy The Statist Calculation of Legitimacy CHAPTER TWO - The Leveis ofhternational Recognition Express Recognition Implied Recognition De facto and de jure Recognition CHAPTER THREE - The Seeession of Quebec: An Anaiyücd Background The 1980 Referendum on Sovereignty4ssociation From the Patriation to the Chat1ottetown Accord The 1995 Referendum on Sovereignty-Partnership The Supreme Court Reference Case on Quebec Secession Why is the Study of the Quebec UDI Crucial? CHAPTER FOUR - The French Recognition of P Quebec UDI ?: Deconstructing the "Grand Game" of Mr Parizeau Franco-Québécoises Relations The "Grand Game" of Premier Parizeau The European Common Foreign Poiicy The German Unilateral Recognition of Slovenia and Croatia Why a German Unilateral Recognition? The Cost of the Unilateml Recognition The French Recognition of a Quebec UDI: An Unlikely Prospect The French National Interefis Conclusions on Parïzau's "Grand Game" CEAPTER FIVE - American Recognition of a Uniiaterai Secession of Quebec? The Stnrcti~~and Mechanisms of the U.S. Recognition Power U.S. Recogniîion Power: A Historical Reminder The Sole EiecurrYe Agreement The U.S. Practice Regarding UDI: The Recognition of Bangladesh The U.S. Reaction towardr the Bangladesh UDX The U.S. Practice Regarding UDI: The Recognition of Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina me US.Reaction towards Sloveniù and Croatia U. UDI Case Studies: Observations and Discussion The American Perception of Quebec in the 1990's The U.S. National Interests mid the 1995 Quebec Referendum American National hterests and Quebec UDI: The Unlikely U.S. Recognition of Quebec The Sofl Lake The Nard Line A Quebec UDI and the Monroe Doctrine CONCLUSION BIBLIOGRAPHY VITA LIST OF FIGURES Page The Calculation of Legitimacy .................................................................... 16 The Statis t Calcutation of Legitimacy ........................................................... -21 Levels of International Recognition .............................................................. 29 Introduction Recognition is a matter of power adrealplitik rather than iaw. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether France and the United States would recognize a unilaterai secession of Quebec. Although several sovereignists in Quebec assume that France would quickly recognize Quebec. foliowing a unilateral declaration of independence VI), this prospect appears onlikely. hdeed, as this thesis will demonstrate. because France is a member of the European Union (EU), it must take into account the general interest of the EU, which does not lie in the recognition of a Quebec UDI. Moreover. considering the number of separatist movements in Europe. the recognition of a unilateral secession of Quebec by France could be extremely damaging to French national interests as well as the EU interests. This thesis wiii also show that the United States would be the most important actor, and probably the fkst country to react towards a Quebec UDr. It will be demonstrated that, because the United States national interests lie in a stable