FloodEvac- Uncertainty of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Precipitation and its Impact on Flood Wave Generation in Mesoscale Catchements Name: Kanwal Amin E-Mail: [email protected] Supervisor: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Markus Disse Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management Started: 07/2016 ongoing finished Research Objectives Evaluation of past extreme rainfall events The core aim of the study will be to evaluate the via different simulation and interpolation uncertainty involved in different spatial interpolation techniques in the catchment Upper Main. techniques for the flood inducing precipitation such Determination of differences between the as Turning bands method (TBM), Copulas and spatial interpolation sets for measured Random mixing. The mentioned geo-statistical rainfall, radar data and forecasted spatial interpolation techniques will then further be precipitation (German Weather Service). compared with remote sensing precipitation Comparison of the defined interpolation sets datasets (radar data) obtained from the German and determination of the best interpolation Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst - DWD). method. The main hypothesis of the dissertation states that Validation of the dataset in a second appropriate spatial and temporal interpolation catchment (e.g. Mangfall catchment). techniques of rainfall gauges can significantly Application of different spatially interpolated reduce flood forecast uncertainty. This will be precipitation data sets in the hydrological proved by evaluating many rainfall – flood events in model LARSIM to generate the resulted two different catchments. discharge. Determination of uncertainty percentiles for In order to achieve the required results, following the peak discharge and the duration of the objectives will be considered: flood wave. Kanwal Amin Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management Study Area the simulation results of hourly precipitation dataset The projected study will focus on the area of the from these interpolation methods will be compared Upper Main Catchment which is a part of the Rhine with the German Radar data (RADOLAN) provided basin and is situated in the North-Eastern side of the by the German Weather Service (DWD) (Houdayer Bavarian state in Germany. The catchment covers 2016). an area of about 4646 km2. The Upper Main river is fed by the Red and White Main rivers, flows about Afterwards, the analysis will be done to compare the 70km before finishing its course near Kemmern, at simulation results obtained from the above the confluence with the Regnitz river. The springs of mentioned techniques with the remote sensing the White and the Red Main are located in the low dataset. In order to reduce the uncertainty involved mountain range of the Fichtelgebirge in the South- in the interpolation, analysis will be performed for East, where the highest annual precipitation of the multiple number of realizations. This will help to catchment occurs. About 75 % of the area has an understand the spatial and time scale variability of elevation between 200 and 500 m.a.s.l. and about precipitation. 25 % of the area is comprised of a low mountain region with a height between 500 to 850 m.a.s.l. Lastly, the analysis will be performed to spatially (Houdayer 2016). interpolate the forecasted point data set while using a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. Which will allow us to closely inspect the performance of each interpolation technique for the present and forecasted precipitation data on a basin scale during the occurrence of extreme events. The performance criteria are the main properties (peak discharge, time to peak, volume and shape) of the measured flood wave at all available gauging stations. This study will also assist to prioritize these interpolation techniques based on the need and properties of the input rain-gauge dataset. References Houdayer, M., 2016, Stochastic Simulation of Rainfall Fields Using the Turning Bands Method -A Case Study for the White Main Catchment. M.Sc. Thesis, Universität Bayreuth, Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Geosciences. Methodology A component of the hydrologic uncertainty usually Pakosch, S., 2011, Development of a Fuzzy Rule Based arises from the full-field interpolation of precipitation Expert System for Flood Forecasts Within the Meso-Scale information, that are sparsely available in the entire Upper Main Basin. Ph.D. Thesis, Universität der catchment. The spatial interpolation of the point Bundeswhr München, Institut für Wasserwesen, measurements will be done via different spatial Wasserwirtschaft und Ressourcenschutz. interpolation techniques e.g. Turning bands method (TBM), Copulas and Random mixing. Subsequently, Stand: 01.04.2018 .