The Radical Right in Policy Space: A Comparative Analysis of Radical Right Parties in Eastern and Western Europe by David Pupovac Submitted to Central European University Department of Political Science In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Supervisor: Levente Littvay Budapest, 2015 CEU eTD Collection Declaration I hereby declare that this dissertation contains no materials accepted for any other degrees, in any other institutions. The dissertation contains no materials previously written and/or published by any other person, except where appropriate acknowledgement is made in the form of bibliographical reference. David Pupovac August31, 2015 CEU eTD Collection i Abstract The analyses presented in the dissertation address the functioning of the European radical right in the policy space by comparatively analyzing Eastern and Western European radical right parties. The dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the ideology of the European radical right and the function ideology plays in the radical right’s performance in elections. The research addresses three central problems: the definition and the ideological transformation of the radical right; ideological differences between Eastern and Western European radical right parties; and the effect of ideological shifts and interactions of competitors in the policy space on the variation of radical right’s vote shares. In addition to the central research questions, the dissertation addresses the problem of conceptualization and dimensionality of the policy space and contributes to the literature on measuring ideological positions of parties using hand-coded manifesto data. The analyses provide evidence for these principal conclusions. Firstly, social and political changes forced radical right parties to adapt and to alter some aspects of their ideologies. I argue that authoritarianism, typically associated with the traditional radical right, is neither a sufficient nor a necessary characteristic of the contemporary radical right. I claim that definitional characteristics of radical right parties are to be found in extreme positions considering the “Other”, and this location in the policy space is the quality which distinguishes radical right parties from other party families. To account for these hypotheses, I test contesting definitions of the radical right and provide evidence for the transformation of the radical right’s ideology and the moderation considering the authoritarian policy dimension. Nevertheless, I also demonstrate that, despite these ideological changes, modern radical right parties still share with historical fascist and Nazi parties the same type of extremism with respect to the exclusion on the basis of in-group/out- group distinction. Secondly, although the modern understanding of the radical right rests on an assumed ideological distinctiveness of Eastern (post-communist) and Western European radical right parties, I challenge this assumption and argue that the perceived distinction is a byproduct of different political and historical circumstances characteristic for Eastern and Western European states. In assessing the validity of the ideological difference, I consider both particular issues and the position of parties in the multidimensional policy space. The analysis presents evidence against the assumed ideological differentiation between Eastern and Western European radical right parties and, thus, contests the foundation of the modern understanding of the radical right. Thirdly, I argue that ideological shifts and the location of parties in the policy space have a significant explanatory power in accounting for the variation of vote shares of radical right parties. I demonstrate that, in the presence of relevant social, economic and institutional indicators, the ideological division of party systems with respect to exclusionary and authoritarian issues has a consistent and substantial effect in explaining the variation of radical right vote shares. Consequently, I provide evidence that, while electoral success of the CEU eTD Collection radical right may be aided by socio-economic, cultural and institutional contexts, the lack of a national consensus considering the issues such as national identity, traditionalism or civic liberties contributes to the growth of radical right vote shares. ii Acknowledgments This dissertation has been in process for many years and there is no possible way to thank everyone who had helped me. However, I have to mention some of the people who have been indispensable in getting this project completed. First of all, I want to thank my supervisor, prof. Levente Littvay, whose extraordinary professional and personal support, strong commitment to my academic development and enduring patience were crucial in this long and challenging journey. Having him as my mentor and a friend has been a great honor. I would also like to extend my utmost gratitude to prof. Tamás Rudas and prof. Anton Pelinka for supporting me in the most difficult period of this process and showing me the way forward. I am also deeply indebted to prof. Lawrence LeDuc for helping me to pursue my academic ambitions. Most of all, I would like to thank my friends and colleagues, Elene Jibladze, Elena Stavrevska, and Dane Taleski for their friendship and help. I am also very grateful to the faculty and staff of the Doctoral School of Political Science, Public Policy and International Relations for their professional advice. Especially, I would like to mention Robert Sata for offering his generous help. Special thanks to members of the Political Behavior Research Group (PolBeRG) and particularly to prof. Gábor Tóka, Juraj Medzihorsky, Paul Weith, Sebastian Popa, Martin Mölder, Daniela Širinić and Constantin Bosancianu. Above all, I would like to thank my parents, Radmila and Rajko Pupovac, whose selfless love and endless encouragement made this dissertation possible. I dedicate this work to them. CEU eTD Collection iii Table of Contents DECLARATION .................................................................................................................................................. I ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................................................................... II ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................................. III TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................... IV LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................ VIII LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................................................. IX PART 1: RESEARCH DESIGN, CONCEPTUALIZATION AND MEASUREMENT ..................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION: RESEARCH QUESTIONS, DESIGN OF ANALYSIS AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1. THE PERILS OF THE RADICAL RIGHT AND THE ACADEMIC LITERATURE ................................................... 2 1.2. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE DISSERTATION ............................................................................................ 4 1.2.1. The radical right in the policy space of Eastern and Western Europe ......................................... 4 1.2.2. The research questions ................................................................................................................. 7 1.2.2.1. How to define the radical right? ............................................................................................... 7 1.2.2.2. Is there an ideological difference between the Eastern and the Western European radical right? 9 1.2.2.3. Which factors influence vote share variation of the radical right? ......................................... 11 1.3. THE PROPERTIES OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN ......................................................................................... 12 1.3.1. Terminology and case selection ................................................................................................. 13 1.3.2. Units of analysis ......................................................................................................................... 15 1.3.3. Scope conditions ......................................................................................................................... 15 1.3.3.1. Geographical conditions......................................................................................................... 16 1.3.3.2. Political and historical conditions .......................................................................................... 16 1.3.3.3. Time span ............................................................................................................................... 17 1.3.3.4. Excluded cases ....................................................................................................................... 17 1.4. DATA AND METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................. 18 1.4.1. Expert surveys: limits