Revista Internacional de Sociología RIS vol. 77 (4), e142, octubre-diciembre, 2019, ISSN-L:0034-9712 https://doi.org/10.3989/ris.2019.77.4.19.005 PROTEST CYCLES AND CICLOS DE PROTESTA Y REFERENDUMS FOR REFERÉNDUMS POR LA INDEPENDENCE. CLOSED INDEPENDENCIA. OPORTUNIDADES OPPORTUNITIES AND THE PATH CERRADAS Y EL CAMINO DE LA OF RADICALIZATION IN CATALONIA RADICALIZACIÓN EN CATALUÑA Donatella Della Porta Scuola Normale Superiore (Florence, Italy) [email protected] ORCID iD: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5239-8773 Francis O’Connor Peace Research Institute (Frankfurt, Germany) [email protected] ORCID iD: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6891-770X Martín Portos Scuola Normale Superiore (Florence, Italy) [email protected] ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1714-6383 Cómo citar este artículo / Citation: Della Porta, D., F. Copyright: © 2019 CSIC. This is an open-access article O’Connor and M. Portos. 2019. “Protest cycles and referen- distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons dums for independence. Closed opportunities and the path of Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License. radicalization in Catalonia”. Revista Internacional de Sociología 77(4):e142. https://doi.org/10.3989/ris.2019.77.4.19.005 Received: 10/12/2018. Accepted: 21/10/2019 Published online: 29/11/2019 Abstract Resumen This article seeks to understand the trajectory of radicalization En este artículo desarrollamos un marco interpretativo para in the Catalan ‘procés’. Regardless of their formal legal comprender la trayectoria de radicalización en el “procés” ca- standing, referendum campaigns are distinct political talán. Independientemente del estatus legal del referéndum opportunities which also generate further opportunities. en cuestión, las campañas de referéndum son capaces de Contrary to what some theories of protest would predict, crear, y de hecho son en sí mismas, oportunidades políticas. when political opportunities are closed down at national En contraste con las predicciones desde las teorías de los level, and repression toughens, violent escalation leading ciclos de protesta, cuando se cierran las oportunidades a ni- to fragmentation and ultimately demobilization does not vel nacional y la represión se intensifica, no necesariamente necessarily ensue, at least in the short term. As the Catalan se desarrolla un proceso de radicalización que contribuye al ‘procés’ illustrates between the mid-2000s and late-2018, declive del ciclo, al menos a corto plazo. Como el caso catalán the combination of mechanisms such as appropriation ilustra entre mediados de los años 2000 y finales de 2018, of opportunities, downward scale shift and movement varios mecanismos pueden mediar este proceso, incluyendo convergence can mitigate escalation processes. A dense la apropiación de oportunidades políticas, el cambio de escala network of local and grassroots assemblies displaced the hacia abajo y la convergencia del movimiento. Una densa red previously dominant, major civil society organizations that de asambleas locales de base reemplaza en el a las gran- led mass protests, especially during the 2012-2015 ‘diadas’. des organizaciones de la sociedad civil que hasta entonces, These grassroots actors prioritized the organization of y especialmente durante las diadas entre 2012 y 2015, ha- dissent through more direct, more disruptive, but mostly bían liderado la movilización social. Aunque estas asambleas peaceful forms of action. This in turn facilitated movement ciudadanas han abrazado repertorios de acción más direc- convergence, based upon solidarization, as it opened up local tos y disruptivos, estos han sido mayoritariamente pacíficos. spaces where the activists from across the spectrum could Asimismo, este reemplazo ha favorecido la convergencia del mobilize together, pre-empting a clear violent escalation and movimiento, abriendo espacios donde activistas de un amplio the emergence of violent splinter groups till late 2018. espectro pueden movilizarse conjuntamente, y evitando de este modo una escalada violenta y la emergencia de grupos escindidos violentos (al menos hasta finales de 2018). Keywords Palabras Clave Policing of protest; Secessionism; Referendums; Downward Vigilancia de protestas; Secesionismo; Referéndums; Cambio scale shift; Movement convergence. descendente de escala; Convergencia de movimientos. 2 . DONATELLA DELLA PORTA, FRANCIS O’CONNOR AND MARTÍN PORTOS 1. Introduction movement’s surprisingly constrained repertoire with limited violence— at least until late 2018— can be Although the waves of new states emergent af- explained by three mechanisms: the appropriation of ter World War I, the de-colonization period and the local opportunities, the downward scale shift of mobi- breakdown of the Soviet Union, have declined in in- lization and movement convergence as produced by tensity (Haklai 2015, 462), a steady trickle of non- solidarization processes. state nations continue to assert demands for col- lective self-determination in vastly differing political We develop our argument by looking at the tra- contexts, from Scotland and Catalonia to New Cale- jectory of radicalization during the Catalan procés. donia and Bougainville (della Porta, O’Connor and Empirical data from semi-structured interviews and Portos 2019). Referendums have been increasingly descriptive statistics will be used throughout for il- 1 used to put forward and validate such claims to self- lustrative purposes. First we summarize the liter- determination. Recent research has demonstrated ature on cycles of contention in social movement that referendums are not simply an elite-designed, studies, singling out expectations about the radical- technical procedure involving one single act of mass ization of forms of action. The article proceeds to engagement on the day of the actual vote (della Por- provide a contextual background of the case, ad- ta, O’Connor, Portos and Subirats 2017a). Rather, dressing the onset and consolidation of the cycle of several referendums have been induced and/or ap- protest for independence in Catalonia, and outlining propriated by social movements in many heterog- the limited violent escalation throughout the cycle of enous contexts, beyond states with constitutionally contention. In the subsequent section, we introduce enshrined rights for citizen-initiated referendums, like and illustrate how the identified mechanisms inter- Italy, or states with deep rooted traditions of direct play and have contributed to the patterns of radical- democracy such as Switzerland. ization observed in Catalonia. Irrespective of their legal status (institutionally en- dorsed, legally binding or symbolic), referendums 2. Radicalization and cycles of have become epicentres of contestation in broader protest cycles of contention. Instead of mere devices that institutional actors use to retrospectively legitimize Social movement studies have suggested that technocratic decisions, “referendums from below” forms of protest tend to change during periods of build upon the participatory and grassroots process- intense contention, as protest events cluster in time es that foster— and conversely, are fostered by— and space; cycle, waves, campaigns and tides are years of civil society mobilization that pre-date the ac- concepts developed in order to define “a punctu- tual vote (della Porta et al. 2017a, 2017b; della Porta ated history of heightened challenges and relative et al. 2019). As instances of heightened contention, stability” (Beissinger 2002, 16). Protest includes referendums from below can provoke repression by non-routinized, unconventional ways of affecting incumbent powerholders, triggering processes of political, social, and cultural processes. They can radicalization, understood as escalation via an inter- be more or less radical in nature, ranging from more active process from nonviolent to increasingly violent conventional petitioning to more conflictual block- repertoires of action over time (Bosi and Malthaner ades, and potentially, episodes of violence (della 2015; della Porta 2018; Malthaner 2018). Violent Porta 2018). A protest cycle is characterized as “a tactics— defined as physical damage to people and phase of heightened conflict and contention across property— are more likely to be deployed by actors the social system that includes: a rapid diffusion of in cases where claims for self-determination are collective action from more mobilised to less mo- blocked by the prohibition of institutionally binding bilised sectors; a quickened pace of innovation in referendums. Catalonia presents some of the con- the forms of contention; new or transformed col- ditions often considered as propitious for a violent lective action frames; a combination of organized escalation. With the crucial support of regional and and unorganised participation; and sequences of local-level institutional allies, a prolonged cycle of intensified inter-actions between challengers and contention beginning in the early 2000s, developed authorities which can end in reform, repression and into a mass movement. During the process, claims sometimes revolution” (Tarrow 1994, 153). Cycles escalated towards increasing support for indepen- have been assumed to develop through some spe- dence; and as political opportunities at the national cific sequences in their rise, peak and decline as level closed down, repression and political polariza- mobilization unfolds “from institutional conflict to en- tion intensified. While there was an increase in the thusiastic peak to ultimate