DDeeffeennssee,, DDeeffiicciittss,, aanndd DDeeppllooyymmeennttss:: TThhee FFuuttuurree ooff UUSS MMiilliittaarryy PPoolliiccyy Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies University of Washington, Seattle ▪ Winter, 2012 ii Defense, Deficits, and Deployments Defense, Deficits, and Deployments: The Future of U.S. Military Policy Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Report 2012 Task Force Advisor: The Honorable Congressman Adam Smith Task Force Evaluator: Under Secretary of the Air Force Ms. Erin C. Conaton Task Force Members: Mike Beckett Jessica Beers Tyler Emsky Dan Hollenbeck Gregory Johnsen (editor) Stefan Kaehler Jennifer Kang Jordan Laramie Erika Nicks Marc Quint Marcus Sweetser Zhenni Thomas (editor) Andrew White Meagan Winnie Cover photos courtesy of: US Department of Defense [http://www.defense.gov/multimedia/] US Army [http://www.army.mil/yearinphotos/2011/] US Navy [http://www.navy.mil/view_photos_top.asp] ii Defense, Deficits, and Deployments A special thanks must be given to The Honorable Adam Smith, Professor Wolfram Latsch, and Under Secretary of the Air Force Ms. Erin C. Conaton for making this task force report possible. iii Defense, Deficits, and Deployments Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................. 1 Section I: Strategy .................................................................................................... 3 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................3 Chapter 1: Asymmetric Threats .....................................................................................................10 Chapter 2: Cyber Warfare ..............................................................................................................15 Chapter 3: Afghanistan and Pakistan .............................................................................................25 Chapter 4: Iran ...............................................................................................................................43 Chapter 5: China ............................................................................................................................55 Chapter 6: North Korea ..................................................................................................................66 Chapter 7: Alliances .......................................................................................................................79 Chapter 8: Base Realignment and Closure ....................................................................................88 Notes ..............................................................................................................................................90 Section II: Budget................................................................................................. 102 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................102 Chapter 9: US Federal Debt .........................................................................................................104 Chapter 10: The Defense Budget, In Perspective ........................................................................119 Chapter 11: Auditing the Department of Defense .......................................................................133 Chapter 12: Acquisition and Procurement ...................................................................................143 Notes ............................................................................................................................................162 Section III: Force Structure ................................................................................ 168 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................168 Chapter 13: The Strategic Nuclear Forces ...................................................................................170 Chapter 14: Department of the Air Force ....................................................................................189 Chapter 15: Department of the Navy ...........................................................................................208 Chapter 16: Department of the Army ..........................................................................................226 Chapter 17: USSOCOM ..............................................................................................................242 Chapter 18: Military Personnel ....................................................................................................249 Chapter 19: Operations and Maintenance ....................................................................................263 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 271 Notes ............................................................................................................................................273 Bibliography ......................................................................................................... 292 iv Defense, Deficits, and Deployments Executive Summary | By Gregory Johnsen and Zhenni Thomas America’s economic strength and military might go hand in hand. Each is indispensable to the other. Thus, in times such as the present when America’s deteriorating fiscal position requires swift and reasoned attention, it becomes incumbent on the Department of Defense to evaluate how its own operations help or hinder the situation. Deliberate decisions by Congress have further entrenched this relationship vis-à-vis the Budget Control Act of 2011 which directly imposes cuts to DoD spending as part of a larger effort to bring the federal budget toward balance. Even if not for the fiscal circumstances, the present moment is a good one for reevaluating the trajectory of US military strategy. Now that Operation Iraqi Freedom has ended and activities in Afghanistan are waning, DoD will face very different demands on its resources than it has over the past ten years. Asymmetric threats to national security such as terror cells and cyber warfare also continue to pose novel challenges, requiring adaptation by the department. This task force report begins at a sensible point, by conducting a comprehensive evaluation of the present and projected threats to US national security. Only with an understanding of the threats faced can we begin to talk about the forces necessary to repel them. We examine asymmetric threats including terror cells, WMD, and cyber warfare. Next we examine unstable regimes such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea. We also consider the growing military and economic power of China, which should not be viewed as an immediate threat, but must be taken into consideration. Finally, our review of strategy conducts an analysis of the role that basing and alliances have in US military policy. The second major section of this report is a careful evaluation of the budgetary matters at hand. We begin with a critical examination of the overall federal budget and projected trends. This includes thoughtful discussion of the interplay between economic and military might. A comprehensive review of our defense spending is then in order, to consider whether our present level of DoD funding is high or low. We conclude neither— that in truth, the appropriate way to judge a defense budget is by its ability to counter threats as efficiently but effectively as possible. Toward that end, we propose that two key actions DoD must take are ensuring auditability and reforming procurement practices. The third and final section of our report lays out a comprehensive vision for the future structure of our military forces. We cover the strategic nuclear arsenal, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps, Army, and Special Operations. Our findings indicate that there are certainly efficiencies to be found, which can reduce DoD expenditures without gravely jeopardizing national security. We structure these proposals into three tiers, each suitable to different defense budget scenarios. Lastly we examine department-wide reforms to personnel and operations and maintenance. These expenditures continue to consume an increasing share of our national defense budget and cannot be ignored. In all of this, our effort is to show that cautious and prudent examination of American defense spending can find room for efficiencies without sacrificing national security. Indeed, in some ways it may improve it, as a strategic restructuring of the forces brings them closer into line with the contemporary threats of the world we face. Our approach is in contrast to the blunt instrument of across-the-board budget sequesters which loom as a result of the Budget Control Act. We hope that it inspires those in positions of 1 Defense, Deficits, and Deployments power to step back from their own narrow areas of interest and examine a greater picture— one of a twenty-first century American defense that is capable, accountable, and efficient. 2 Defense, Deficits, and Deployments SECTION I: STRATEGY Introduction | By Stefan Kaehler The United States Armed Forces are currently undergoing a dramatic paradigm shift in their approach to the mission of global security. Previous strategies, such as the “Two