GLOBAL EagleLyonPope MARITIME PORT & MARINE CONSULTANTS GROUP COMHAIRLE NAN EILEAN SIAR AND HIGHLANDS COUNCIL Traffic Routeing in the Minches and West of Hebrides Project No: ELP - J55188 Project No: SaS – CEMT01 Project No.: CEMT01/J55188 Reference No.: CEMT01-RE-001-LG Report Date: 26 May 2005 Report Type: FINAL Report Status: CONFIDENTIAL abcdef GLOBAL EagleLyonPope MARITIME PORT & MARINE CONSULTANTS GROUP Title: Traffic Routeing in the Minches and West of Hebrides Summary: Eagle Lyon Pope Ltd (ELP) and Safety at Sea Ltd (SaS) were commissioned by Comhairle Nan Eilean Siar (CNES) and The Highland Council to undertake a study into traffic routeing through the Minches and the Deep Water Route west of the Hebrides. The objective was to establish the effectiveness of current maritime legislation and procedures with regard to these two areas and to identify/recommend further measures to reduce the risk of a significant pollution incident in the study area. This report presents the findings and results of the study derived under a Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) framework – a format recognised by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) as a rational and systematic process for assessing the risks related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine environment. The report is structured in 7 Sections. The definition of the problem and method of work is provided in Section 2 and 3, respectively. The hazard identification (Step 1 of the FSA format) is included in Section 4. Risk analysis (step 2) and evaluation of risk control options (Step 3) are presented in Section 5 and 6, respectively. Recommendations for decision-making are presented in Section 7. The study was undertaken between November 2004 and April 2005 by suitably qualified and experienced consultants from the Glasgow based company Safety at Sea Ltd and the London based Eagle Lyon Pope Ltd. Comhairle nan Eilean Siar Client: Report No.: CEMT01-REP-001-LG and Highland Council Project No.: CEMT01 Date: 2005-05-24 Author(s): Luis Guarin (SaS) Checked by: Kieran Dodworth (SaS) ______________________ ______________________ Tom Drennan (ELP) Approved by: Chris Collings (ELP) ______________________ ______________________ Type: Draft Status: Open ■ Final Internal ■ Confidential OIL TANKERS, RISK ASSESSMENT, TRAFFIC ROUTEING, Keywords: GROUNDING, COLLISION, OIL POLLUTION i GLOBAL EagleLyonPope MARITIME PORT & MARINE CONSULTANTS GROUP Revision History Date Description 2005-03-04 Initial version of draft document (incomplete) 2005-03-14 Revised version of first draft 2005-05-25 Final report ii ELP/SaS Final Report 1 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................3 1.1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................3 1.2. STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT.........................................................................................6 2 DEFINITION OF THE PROBLEM...............................................................................7 2.1. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY........................................................................7 2.2. STUDY AREA ................................................................................................................7 3 METHOD OF WORK......................................................................................................9 4 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION......................................................................................10 4.1. PRESENT MARINE ACTIVITIES ...................................................................................11 4.2. TRAFFIC DATA...........................................................................................................24 4.3. ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITY OF THE STUDY AREA ................................................34 4.4. OIL SPILLS HISTORICAL STATISTICS ...........................................................................38 4.5. COUNTER POLLUTION RESPONSE...............................................................................46 4.6. IDENTIFICATION OF MAJOR FACTORS IN SHIP CASUALTIES .......................................48 4.7. IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS RELATED TO THE STUDY AREA ..................................50 4.8. IDENTIFICATION OF RISK-CONTRIBUTING FACTORS....................................................58 4.9. DISCRETISATION OF ROUTES FOR RISK ANALYSIS.......................................................59 5 RISK ANALYSIS ...........................................................................................................64 5.1. APPROACH .................................................................................................................65 5.2. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF HAZARDOUS SITUATIONS......................................68 5.3. OOW MODEL.............................................................................................................74 5.4. ACCIDENT MODEL......................................................................................................90 5.5. SHIP MODEL ...............................................................................................................95 5.6. RISK ESTIMATION ......................................................................................................97 6 RISK CONTROL OPTIONS ......................................................................................104 6.1. IMPROVED ROUTEING (RCO-01) .............................................................................106 6.2. IMPROVED NAVIGATION AIDS (RCO-02) ................................................................108 6.3. IMPROVED REPORTING (RCO-03) ...........................................................................109 6.4. PILOTAGE (RCO-04) ...............................................................................................111 6.5. TUG ESCORTING AND INTERVENTION (RCO-05) .....................................................112 6.6. SAFE HAVENS (RCO-06).........................................................................................115 6.7. AUTOMATIC IDENTIFICATION SYSTEMS (AIS, RCO-07)..........................................116 6.8. VESSEL TRAFFIC SERVICES (VTS, RCO-08) ...........................................................118 6.9. IMPROVED CHART COVERAGE (RCO-09)................................................................121 6.10. DENIAL OF RIGHT OF INNOCENT PASSAGE (ROIP, RCO-10)...............................123 6.11. RECONFIGURING THE EXISTING DWR (RCO-11)................................................125 6.12. SUMMARY OF RISK CONTROL OPTIONS ...............................................................128 6.13. RANKING OF RISK CONTROL OPTIONS.................................................................132 7 CONCLUSIONS AND PRELIMINARY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR DECISION-MAKING..........................................................................................................137 8 REFERENCES..............................................................................................................140 Traffic Routeing in the Minches and West of Hebrides 1/150 ELP/SaS Final Report List of Appendices Appendix 1 Consultant Brief Appendix 2 List of Assumptions for the Bayesian Network Model Appendix 3 Bayesian Network Model Appendix 4 Incidents attended by the ETV in the Minches during 1997-2000 Appendix 5 MCA Emergency Towing Vessel – Anglian Prince – The Minch / Tasking 1999-2000 Traffic Routeing in the Minches and West of Hebrides 2/150 ELP/SaS Final Report 1 Summary 1.1. Executive summary i. Acting on concerns about the impact that a serious pollution incident could have on the local environment and environment-based economies such as tourism and aquaculture, the Western Isles Council (Comhairle Nan Eilean Siar, CNES) and Highlands Council have jointly commissioned this study. ii. The study was undertaken between November 2004 and April 2005 by suitably qualified and experienced consultants from the Glasgow based company Safety at Sea Ltd and the London based Eagle Lyon Pope Ltd. iii. To meet the study objectives as outlined in the consultants brief, a Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) format has been followed1. The FSA format is recognised by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) as a rational and systematic process for assessing the risks related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine environment; iv. In the present study, the hazards that may lead to a ship accident, hence to oil pollution in the study area, have been identified (Step 1). The risk analysis process (Step 2) incorporated a probabilistic model of ships grounding and collision based on Bayesian Network modelling, an approach that is widely accepted as a sound and intuitive formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. Risk-Conrol Options were evaluated (Step 3) from the point of view of risk- reduction effectiveness. Cost-Benefit analysis (Step 4) was not undertaken in the present study; only an indication of the feasibility of implementing the evaluated risk control options was provided. Hence, the recommendations provided in this report (Step 5) should be interpreted accordingly. v. Risk reduction assessments were made of the existing two Minches recommended routes and the existing Deep Water Route (DWR) west of Hebrides. Additionally, as a RCO, consideration was also given to a revised DWR configured to the west of St. Kilda and Flannan Isles ie further off the west coasts