Union College Union | Digital Works Honors Theses Student Work 6-2014 The Origins of Wave Elections: Narrative Control Polarization and Turnout in New Hampshire Electoral Politics 2006-2012 Zachary Jonas Union College - Schenectady, NY Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalworks.union.edu/theses Part of the American Politics Commons, and the United States History Commons Recommended Citation Jonas, Zachary, "The Origins of Wave Elections: Narrative Control Polarization and Turnout in New Hampshire Electoral Politics 2006-2012" (2014). Honors Theses. 537. https://digitalworks.union.edu/theses/537 This Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Work at Union | Digital Works. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of Union | Digital Works. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Origins of Wave Elections: Narrative Control, Polarization and Turnout in New Hampshire Electoral Politics, 2006-2012 By Zachary Jonas ************* Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for Honors in the Department of Political Science Union College June, 2014 i ABSTRACT: JONAS, ZACHARY The Origins of Wave Elections: Narrative Control, Polarization and Turnout in New Hampshire Electoral Politics, 2006-2012. Department of Political Science, June 2014. ADVISOR: Clifford Brown This thesis investigates the origin of wave elections in New Hampshire in 2006, 2010 and 2012. It finds that recent demographic shifts in the state laid the groundwork for these dramatic electoral results. This paper also examines the nationalization and polarization that have redefined New Hampshire’s political landscape and contributed to massive partisan shifts in state government. The combination of demographic changes and a polarized political culture have created an electoral environment for both Republicans and Democrats that favors turnout, increasing the importance of agenda setting and narrative control in order to produce high turnout among core constituencies. Chapter 1 discusses the important demographic trends of the past several decades that have pushed New Hampshire leftward politically. Chapters 2 through 5 discuss the 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 elections respectively, with special attention paid to the importance of narrative control and turnout in determining the results of each contest. Finally, the conclusion will tie the recent wave elections in New Hampshire to the national political environment and the general direction of American politics. ii Contents Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………….………………………………………i Contents ............................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. iv Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 Nationalization of State Politics ......................................................................................................3 Agenda Setting and Turnout ...........................................................................................................4 Basic Overview of New Hampshire .................................................................................................6 Chapter 1: Politics in a Migrant State ................................................................................... 10 Recent Demographic Trends in the State of New Hampshire ......................................................... 10 Politics in a Migrant State............................................................................................................. 15 Chapter 2: All Politics is National in 2006 ............................................................................. 20 All Politics are National ................................................................................................................ 21 State Level Rout ........................................................................................................................... 28 Chapter 3: “Hello Blue Hampshire”: The 2008 Election ......................................................... 33 The Presidential Contest .............................................................................................................. 36 Lynch’s Landslide ......................................................................................................................... 42 Keeping the State House .............................................................................................................. 44 Chapter 4: Red Tsunami in the 2010 Election ....................................................................... 48 Republican Voter Turnout and the Tea Party ................................................................................ 49 What Drives Turnout? .................................................................................................................. 52 The Tea Party and Electoral Discourse .......................................................................................... 57 Chapter 5: The 2012 Election: Women Lead the Way ........................................................... 62 Women and the 2012 Election ...................................................................................................... 64 O’Brien’s Legislature .................................................................................................................... 67 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 72 Explanation of Findings ................................................................................................................ 72 What Does This Mean for New Hampshire? .................................................................................. 72 National Trends ........................................................................................................................... 74 Where to go from Here?............................................................................................................... 77 Appendix 1: Nhteapartycoalition.org ................................................................................... 79 Framework and Methods ............................................................................................................. 79 iii Findings: Politics Come First ......................................................................................................... 84 John Birch is Back ......................................................................................................................... 89 Social Issues ................................................................................................................................. 92 Economy, Healthcare and Taxes ................................................................................................... 94 Explanation of Findings ................................................................................................................ 95 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................ 96 iv Acknowledgements This work is the result of my love affair with New Hampshire, which began on a Union College mini-term to the state in December of 2011. My internship during that mini-term turned into a job in Concord that changed the course of my political, academic and personal life. New Hampshire is a beautiful state filled with beautiful people and fascinating politics. Thanks to the generosity of New Hampshire and her people, I know that I will always feel at home in the Granite State. I’d like to thank Deborah “Arnie” Arnesen, the Hattans, and the other people who hosted me in their homes for their generosity and kindness throughout my time living in Concord. I’d also like to thank Zandra Rice-Hawkins, Caitlin Rollo and the rest of the Granite State Progress crew for teaching me the ropes and exposing me to the fascinating world of New Hampshire’s State House. Without Cliff Brown, this paper would have been simply impossible. His insight and advice were invaluable throughout the process. I’d also like to thank Zoe Oxley, who ran the New Hampshire mini-term, and Tom Lobe, who contributed mightily to my development as a political and academic thinker at Union. Additionally, I must thank the New Hampshire-based social scientists that made this paper possible. This project rests on the solid foundation of data collected and presented by Andrew Smith and Dante Scala at the UNH Survey Center, and the work of Kenneth Johnson at the UNH Carsey Institute. Their data, and the reporting of Kevin Landrigan and his colleagues at the Nashua Telegraph, Concord Monitor and New Hampshire Union Leader, laid the foundations of this paper. I am forever in their debt. Finally, I’d like to thank my family, especially my mom and dad, for all their love and support throughout this difficult project. 1 Introduction This paper seeks to identify the root causes of several wave elections in the state of New Hampshire over the past decade. New Hampshire is a small but fascinating state with incredible importance to national politics for a number of reasons. It has become a swing state and presidential bell