Bushfires and Knowledge Forest, Fire and Regions Group Science Catalogue 2018-19 Forests, Fire and Regions Group © The State of Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning 2019 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit the State of Victoria as author. The licence does not apply to any images, photographs or branding, including the Victorian Coat of Arms, the Victorian Government logo and the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) logo. 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Bushfires and Knowledge Forests Fire and Regions Group Content Section 1: How DELWP’s science has shaped Victoria’s bushfire management 2 Foreword 2 Introduction 4 The Beginnings of Fire Research in Victoria 6 The 1940s to 1970s: Australia grapples with predicting fire spread and impact 8 The 1980s: Fire ecology not just fire behaviour 10 The 1990s: Fuel load, fire ecology and biodiversity 13 From 2000: Adaptation and improvement 14 From 2010: Cross-sector collaboration and policy imperatives 19 Safer Together 21 Section 2: The Forest, Fire and Regions Group Science Catalogue 2018-19 22 Integrating science with policy and operations 22 Working in partnership with communities 23 Smoke modelling 25 Bushfire Prediction Research 27 Associated fire management, predictive, and behavioural research 30 Ecosystem modelling and resilience 33 Modernising Regional Forests Agreement’s 38 Building our understanding of bushfire, climate and risk 41 Environmental compliance 45 References 48 Appendix 1: Fire and adaptive management research reports 50 Bushfires and Knowledge Forests Fire and Regions Group Section 1: How DELWP’s science has shaped Victoria’s bushfire management Foreword Over the past century, Victoria has amassed a Bushfire science contributes to policy and operations wealth of science based knowledge about bushfire in a multitude of ways and in various time frames. behaviour and management that has fundamentally changed the way bushfire is managed across the By bringing together the most significant historical state. This science is nationally and internationally directions in Victoria’s bushfire management and significant and has led to Victorian communities science in this narrative, we better understand: being safer. • the contribution of science to the development of It has enabled the Department of Environment, Land, fire management policy and operations on public Water and Planning (DELWP) to minimise the impact land in Victoria of bushfire on human lives, communities, • how science-based knowledge is informing infrastructure, industries, the economy and the current approaches environment while maintaining and improving the resilience of natural ecosystems and their ability to • how science will continue to influence future provide services such as biodiversity, water, carbon planning and help protect Victorian communities. storage and forest products to Victoria. Established as a narrative around major bushfire Currently, DELWP invests or leverages more than $5 events as drivers for research, this history is not million a year in forests and emergency management intended as a comprehensive list of all science or research projects through its bushfire science research generated or used by DELWP. It is a program. However, the value of this science, the snapshot of critical events and activities that knowledge it generates, and the capacity it has to demonstrate how scientific endeavours by inform DELWP practices is often obscured by its generations of researchers have answered key subtle and cumulative influence over time. questions about bushfire and its impacts. It shows how far DELWP has come in our understanding of In charting the history of DELWP’s long-term bushfires, the risk they pose, and how we manage commitment to invest and use science-based that risk. It also reminds us that continuing research, we begin to understand its powerful investment in science is needed to ensure we influence on our learning and behaviour. This continue to improve our bushfire management. knowledge is built up over decades, often shaping outcomes unforeseen when the science was None of this would have been possible without the commissioned years before. generous support of the many researchers and DELWP staff, past and present, who gave their time, “There is a 20-year gap between conducting memories and archives to assemble this history. an experiment and the knowledge being Our sincere thanks must go to them. They are the embedded in practice “ Dr Leon Bren and heroes of this history. A/Prof. Kevin Tolhurst, personal communication 2 Section 1: How DELWP’s science has shaped Victoria’s bushfire management Bushfires and Knowledge Forests Fire and Regions Group Figure 1: Field research. Source: Pat Lane. Section 1: How DELWP’s science has shaped Victoria’s bushfire management 3 Bushfires and Knowledge Forests Fire and Regions Group Introduction Bushfire Policy and Science Science underpins all our work, holds us to account, and enables us to connect, involve and inform the community in evidence-based decision making to deliver improved outcomes for all Victorians (DELWP Science Strategy 2017). DELWP has a long history of science investment and Hazard Guide (unpublished 2013) looks back at the its use is now deeply entrenched in every aspect of original science behind what is now an accepted way DELWP’s bushfire management activities - from of looking at fuel hazard and demonstrates how the policy directions and management, to field research developed over two decades. operations and training. In turn, the learning this inspires identifies new avenues of research and Similarly, new research projects draw on knowledge scientific endeavour. This adaptive management gained through previous research, and practical loop underpins the knowledge base of bushfire experience, to fill newly recognised or previously science. This strong commitment to knowledge and unfillable knowledge gaps. learning ensures DELWP continues to improve its This is supported by the Research Monitoring, capacity to deliver critical government policy Evaluation and Reporting Framework developed directions such as Safer Together (2015) and the specifically for DELWP’s Forests, Fire and Regions Code of Practice for Bushfire Management on Public Group by RMIT which clearly showed that Land (2012) (the Code). The DELWP Bushfire Science establishing a causal link between research and a Strategy 2013-2017 describes this relationship specific policy or operations outcome an “impact “ or perfectly “DELWP is a science-dependant “direct attribution” is both rarely possible and organisation: good science provides good evidence, significantly under-recognises the value of research which in turn informs good policy”. evidence in DELWP. Instead we need to focus on Interestingly, DELWP’s application of scientific research ‘contributions’ across time bringing a discovery to better bushfire management is rarely the broader focus which acknowledges the value of result of an outcome from a single research project- research contributions as powerful and long-lived. more often, science outputs interlink and build upon The value of long-term research should never be each other towards a critical outcome or a underestimated. The ability to revisit past research breakthrough improvement. Bushfire management and try new research ideas based on previous decisions and new policy are rarely the results of a findings is invaluable, more so when existing single research project, but more an accumulation of background data is comprehensive. The Wombat scientific evidence, often over time. For example, Fire Effects Study Areas (FESA) research has been DELWP's planned burning program is informed by collecting and analysing data about the impact of decades of research into the effects of bushfire on the repeated planned burning for over 30 years. This environment, and the Review of the Overall Fuel 4 Section 1: How DELWP’s science has shaped Victoria’s bushfire management Bushfires and Knowledge Forests Fire and Regions Group work has informed planned burning practices, and DELWP has been increasingly explicit that research the development of successive iterations of the investment is driven by its potential to improve policy Code. One of the most significant messages flowing and operational performance. In fact, Safer Together from these studies is that short-term fire effects can (2015) highlighted the need for ongoing, applied and be misleading, given the longevity of forest pure research. This contrasts with previous ecosystems (DSE, 1995). It took until 2005 for the investment where