CHINESE DECISION-MAKING IN RESPONSE TO FOREIGN POLICY CRISES, 1949-1996: A POLIHEURISTIC ANALYSIS A Dissertation presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School University of Missouri – Columbia In Partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy by ENYU ZHANG Dr. Patrick James and Dr. A. Cooper Drury, Dissertation Co-Supervisors AUGUST 2006 The undersigned, appointed by the Dean of the Graduate School, have examined the dissertation entitled CHINESE DECISION-MAKING IN RESPONSE TO FOREIGN POLICY CRISES, 1949-1996: A POLIHEURISTIC ANALYSIS presented by Enyu Zhang a candidate for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and hereby certify that in their opinion it is worthy of acceptance. Professor A. Cooper Drury Professor Patrick James Professor Xinghe Wang Professor Jonathan T. Krieckhaus Professor L. Marvin Overby To Mom and Dad For their Endless Love and Inspiration 谨以此博士论文献给我最挚爱的父母 衷心感谢他们对我无尽的爱与启迪 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS During the remarkable journey in the past four years at the University of Missouri, Columbia, I am so indebted to my dissertation committee members and other faculty members in the department who have enlightened me and offered their generous advice and help. I greatly appreciate their collective support. In particular, I am deeply grateful for Dr. Patrick James and Dr. A. Cooper Drury, my dissertation co-advisors, for their invaluable advice on my dissertation and their intellectual stimulation and encouragement throughout my doctoral studies. I thank Dr. Xinghe Wang for his important suggestions about the dissertation and academic life in general. I thank Dr. Jonathan T. Krieckhaus for his meticulous comments that helped improve the presentation and contents of the dissertation. I thank Dr. Marvin L. Overby’s encouragement and advice during this process. I am extremely fortunate to have the opportunity to work with Dr. Patrick James, as his student, co-author and friend. It is rare that one finds an advisor who is always patient to discuss about the most trivial problems to the most difficult roadblocks in the course of research. I appreciate his patience and tolerance. Dr. James has taught me innumerable lessons and insights on the workings of academic research in general, and his advice was essential to the completion of this dissertation. Without his intellectual enlightenment, I would not have pursued the doctoral degree up to this stage. Without his mentorship during my master’s and doctoral training and professional development, I ii would not have chosen my professional career in the academia. Without his encouragement and support, I could not have completed this dissertation. I always admire his creativity, academic passion and care for students. I also want to express my gratitude to other distinguished scholars, who have commented on this dissertation at various stages: Alex Mintz at Texas A&M University, Steven B. Redd at University of Wiscosin, Milwaukee, Marijke Breuning at Truman State University, Douglas A. Van Belle at Victoria University of Wellington, Mark Schafer at Louisiana State University, and B. Gregory Marfleet at Carleton College. I also thank Stephen G. Walker at Arizona State University, John T. Ishiyama at Truman State University, Carolyn C. James at University of Southern California, and Dennis V. Hickey at Missouri State University for their important advice on professional development. Finally, I acknowledge and thank Kevin G. Cai, Xiaoting Li, Yitan Li, Shali Luo, Ting Yan and Xi Zhou for their generous help with this project. Last, but not least, I thank my parents who have given me their endless love and dedication, unconditional care and support, and profound inspiration. They have taught me many important things about life, in particular, to be a person of integrity and perseverance. No word can truly convey my deepest gratitude and love for them. Also, I am always grateful for my husband Yitan for his love and understanding. Without his encouragement and full support, I would not have been able to complete this dissertation. To them, I dedicate this dissertation. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................. ii LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... vii LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................... ix ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................... x Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION: A POLIHEURISTIC ANALYSIS OF CHINESE CRISIS DECISION-MAKING ................................................................................................... 1 2. OPENING THE BLACK BOX: CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY-MAKING ...... 13 Chinese Foreign Policy – Toward an Integrated Understanding of Macro and Micro Factors Political Transformations and Chinese Foreign Policy Who Decides? – Political Authority, Political Survival and Decision-Making in Chinese Foreign Policy 3. DECISION-MAKING IN FOREIGN POLICY CRISES: POLIHEURISTIC THEORY AND HYPOTHESES ............................................... 44 Levels of Analysis and Foreign Policy Analysis Rationality and Foreign Policy Decision-Making Decision-Making in Foreign Policy Crises Poliheuristic Theory: Bridging the Cognitive-Rational Gap Poliheuristic Hypotheses iv 4. METHOD AND DATA COLLECTION: A STRUCTURED, FOCUSED COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS.................................................................................... 83 Structured, Focused Comparison Designing the Structured, Focused Comparison 5. TESTING THE POLIHEURISTIC THEORY: A STRUCTURED, FOCUSED COMPARISON OF CHINESE CRISIS DECISION-MAKING .......................... 121 Characteristics of the Cases Primary Hypotheses Inter-Coder Reliability and Debriefing Re-Evaluation of the Questionnaire Secondary Hypotheses 6. CONCLUSION: CHINESE DECISION-MAKING IN FOREIGN POLICY CRISES: FINDINGS, REFLECTIONS AND IMPLICATIONS.......................... 190 Key Findings Reflections Major Contributions and Implications APPENDIX.................................................................................................................... 203 4-2-3-1. Questionnaire:............................................................................................. 203 4-2-3-2. Revised Questionnaire:............................................................................... 207 4-2-5-1. Sources Materials on................................................................................... 211 5-2-1. Sample Debriefing Questions Following the Pilot Coding ......................... 217 5-2-2. Sample Debriefing Questions Following the Comprehensive Coding....... 218 v REFERENCES.............................................................................................................. 219 VITA............................................................................................................................... 249 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1-1 Gallup Poll on Americans’ Perceptions of China 12 4-2-2-1 ICB Foreign Policy Crises for the PRC, 1949-1996 118 4-2-5-1 ICB Centrality and Intensity of Violence in Chinese Foreign 119 Policy Crises 5-1-1 Characteristics of Chinese Foreign Policy from the ICB Project, 1950-1996 182-183 5-2-1 Results for the Primary Hypothesis (I) in Chinese Decision- Making in Foreign Policy Crises, 1949-1996 184 5-2-2 Results for the Primary Hypothesis (II) in Chinese Decision- Making in Foreign Policy Crises, 1949-1996 185 5-5-1 Preliminary Results for the Secondary Hypotheses in Chinese Foreign Policy Crises, 1949-1996 187 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 3-4-1 Poliheuristic Decision-Making in Crisis 81 5-3-1-1 Sino-Vietnam War, 1978-1979: A Poliheuristic Model for Chinese Decision-Making 186 viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CCP Chinese Communist Party CMC Central Military Commission COMECON Council for Mutual Economic Assistance CPC Communist Party of China DPRK Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) FALSG Foreign Affairs Leading Small Group FPA Foreign Policy Analysis GMD Guomindang or Nationalist Party KMT Kuomintang or Nationalist Party ICB International Crisis Behavior LEX Lexicographic MFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs MOFTEC Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation NPC National People's Congress PC Protracted Conflict PH Poliheuristic Theory PLA People’s Liberation Army PRC People’s Republic of China PSC Politburo Standing Committee ROK Republic of Korea (South Korea) SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SO Superpower Opponent UN United Nations US United States USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WTO World Trade Organization ix CHINESE DECISION-MAKING IN RESPONSE TO FOREIGN POLICY CRISES, 1949-1996: A POLIHEURISTIC ANALYSIS Enyu Zhang Dr. Patrick James and Dr. A. Cooper Drury, Dissertation Co-Supervisors ABSTRACT China is seen widely as a distinctive power when dealing with international relations in general and foreign policy crises in particular. Given the concerns about whether the rise of China will be peaceful or belligerent, this dissertation aims to illuminate how Chinese decision-makers make key decisions in foreign policy crises and what lead to such decisions in a systematic and theoretically driven way. To achieve this goal, this dissertation tests