The perfect political storm? The Tea Party movement, the redefinition of the digital political mediascape, and the birth of online politicking 3.0 by Vincent Raynauld A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy degree in Communication Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario © 2013, Vincent Raynauld i Abstract This doctoral dissertation examines the growing impact of the two converging dynamics that are responsible for the reconfiguration of the online and, to some extent, real-world political communication, mobilization and organizing dynamic in the United States in recent years. These two converging dynamics, which constitute the core of the online politicking 3.0 model, are the grassroots-intensive uncontrolled decentralization and hyper-fragmentation of digital politicking. It is argued in this dissertation that the Tea Party movement is one of the first large scale manifestations of online politicking 3.0 in the United States. In order to illustrate this point, this dissertation offers an extensive quantitative content analysis of slightly more than 1.7 million tweets with at least one #teaparty hashtag that were posted on Twitter’s public timeline between December 9, 2009 and March 19, 2011, a time period roughly coinciding with the 2010 Midterm U.S. election cycle. A heuristic review of some facets of #teaparty tweets is also conducted in order to contextualize some of the quantitative data. This dissertation concludes that the the communication, organizing and organizing impact of the Tea Party is likely to be felt in the future. It is expected to have deep transformational effects on the structure of the political mediascape and, to a broader extent, on participatory engagement patterns in the United States and many other national contexts over the next decade. KEYWORDS: Tea Party movement, Web campaigning, social media, Web 2.0, political movements, online politics, elections, United States, Twitter. ii Résumé Cette thèse doctorale offre une analyse détaillée de deux dynamiques ayant un impact de plus en plus marqué sur la structure du paysage politique américain. Ces deux dynamiques, qui peuvent définies comme étant la base du modèle «online politicking 3.0» sont la décentralisation non contrôlée et l’hyper-fragmentation des processus de communication, mobilisation et d’organisation politiques sur Internet. Cette thèse doctorale s’intéresse plus particulièrement au mouvement Tea Party qui peut être défini comme étant l’une des premières manifestations du modèle «online politicking 3.0» dans le paysage politique aux États-Unis. Afin d’illustrer cet argument, cette thèse doctorale offre une analyse de contenu quantitative de plus de 1,7 millions de gazouillis comprenant le mot-clic #teaparty à au moins une reprise qui ont été mis en ligne entre le début du mois de décembre 2009 et la mi-mars 2011. Elle comprend également une analyse heuristique de certaines facettes des gazouillis avec le mot-clic #teaparty afin de mieux contextualiser les données quantitatives. Les effets des pratiques de communication, mobilisation et d’organisation politique associées au mouvement Tea Party ne sont pas négligeables. Ils auront un impact important sur la structure du paysage politico-médiatique des États-Unis et de plusieurs autres pays. Ils contribueront également à la refonte des processus d’engagement politique citoyens. MOTS-CLÉS: Mouvement Tea Party, communication politique sur Internet, média sociaux, mouvements politiques, élections, États-Unis, Twitter iii Acknowledgements My doctoral studies were not only about completing the required coursework and the dissertation, but also about strengthening my grasp of the intricacies of the English language, learning to manage multiple research projects at the same time, constantly acquiring new analytical skills in order to become a better researcher, forging new research partnerships, and having a great time. First, I want to thank my advisor, Dr. André Turcotte, for his patience, his constant interest in my work, his unwavering support, and his willingness to help me take on challenging projects. This doctoral dissertation and the multiple side projects based on it would not have been possible without him. He was instrumental in my success. I also wish to recognize the invaluable assistance of Dr. Ira Wagman, Dr. Eileen Saunders, Dr. Mary Francoli, and Dr. Chris Waddell who graciously accepted to supervise my work. They forced me to think and constantly challenge myself. Dr. Saunders and Dr. Turcotte also allowed me to be in charge of a political communication class in 2010, which confirmed my passion for teaching. Many people gave me the privilege to participate in their research projects, which turned out to be valuable learning experiences: Dr. Josh Greenberg (#ottvote and #COP15 projects), Dr. Thierry Giasson from Laval University (Quebec political bloggers project), Prof. Allan Thompson (RCDA project), Senator Pierre de Bané (Radio-Canada project), Dr. Colette Brin from Laval University, Prof. Robert Washburn from Loyalist College, Dr. Mike Gasher from Concordia University (hyperlocal journalism project), Dr. André Turcotte (Norwegian politics project), Dr. Mireille Lalancette from the Université du Québec à Trois- Rivières (#ggi project), as well as Ms. Alison Loat and Dr. Heather Bastedo from Samara (Canada democracy index and MP exit interview projects). Dr. Josh Greenberg actually played a crucial role in my first year in the doctoral program. He supervised my work for a directed studies course that allowed me to explore new research methodologies for social iv media (I ultimately published an article on this topic). Dr. Thierry Giasson was also instrumental in my first years as a PhD student. He invited me to join the Groupe de recherche en communication politique (GRCP), a dynamic research group based in Laval University. I wish to acknowledge scholars and other research professionals who gave me the opportunity to lecture in their classes, recommended me to their colleagues, or gave me advice on my research and teaching activities: Dr. Chris Dornan, Prof. Heather Pyman, Dr. Maria-José Ferreira, Mr. Jim Mitchell, Dr. Michael Dorland, Dr. Emmanuelle Richez from Concordia University, Dr. Bernard Gauthier from the Institute of Technology and Advanced Learning at Conestoga College, and late Dr. Paul Attallah. Finally, I want to thank the makers of Google Scholar, Endnote, Songza, Twitter, CloudUp, and Dropbox for making my academic life more enjoyable. Je veux remercier Mme Isabelle Harpin et M. Claude Coulombe de l’Université de Montréal pour leur aide inestimable lorsque je me suis attaqué au débroussaillage et à l’analyse des données à l’aide de logiciels spécialisés que j’ai dû apprendre à utiliser très rapidement. Je tiens aussi à souligner la contribution de M. Matthew Rae, M. Éric Thibault, Mme Susan Hertzberg (éditrice) ainsi que ma mère, Janine Vincent, qui m’ont énormément aidé lors de la dernière ronde de révisions de ma thèse et qui n’ont pas hésité à me faire des recommandations qui m’ont permis d’améliorer grandement certaines sections de ce document. Je veux aussi remercier mon frère Benjamin Raynauld pour m’avoir permis de mieux comprendre les subtilités du logiciel de traitement de données Excel. Finalement, je veux souligner l’aide précieuse de mon père, Dr. Jacques Raynauld, qui m’a donné de précieux conseils lors de l’analyse des données et de la formulation des conclusions. En fait, je n’aurais jamais pu compléter mes études doctorales et les nombreux projets qui m’ont été confiés depuis 2007 sans le soutien inconditionnel de mes parents qui ont été toujours été une source d’inspiration et d’encouragements, même lors des moments plus difficiles. v Table of contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... ii Résumé ...................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... iv List of tables .............................................................................................................................. ix List of graphs .............................................................................................................................. x List of illustrations .................................................................................................................... xi Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 1 Chapter: Origins and specificities of grassroots U.S. political movements ....................... 7 1.1 The 2004 U.S. presidential campaign: Howard Dean ................................................. 8 1.2 The 2006 U.S. midterm campaign: Ned Lamont ...................................................... 13 1.3 The 2008 U.S. presidential campaign: Ron Paul ....................................................... 18 1.4 The 2008 U.S. presidential campaign: Barack Obama .............................................. 22 2 Chapter: Evolution of the mass mediated political communication dynamic ................. 34 2.1 Evolution of the offline mass-mediated politicking dynamic in the United States ..