GO-ELS LTD. ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GEOTECHNICAL AND ENGINEERING GEOLOGY Public Disclosure Authorized CONSULTANTS Investigation and Analysis of Natural Hazard Impacts on Linear Infrastructure in Southern Kyrgyzstan Desk and Field Studies Report 68669 Prepared for: World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DRAFT Public Disclosure Authorized GO-ELS Ltd. Rue Marc Brison 10G,Limal, 1300, Belgium Tel: +32 10 419525 ; Mob. :: +32 474 642577 e-mail:1 [email protected] e-mail 2: [email protected] skype: chrisgolightly GO-ELS Ltd. World Bank: Kyrgyzstan – Desk and Field Studies Report Investigation and Analysis of Geohazard Impacts on Major Road Infrastructure in Southern Kyrgyzstan Desk and Field Studies Report Prepared for World Bank DISCLAIMER The opinions and interpretations presented in this report represent our best technical interpretation of the data made available to us. However, due to the uncertainty inherent in the estimation of all sub-surface parameters, we cannot, and do not guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any interpretation and we shall not, except in the case of gross or wilful negligence on our part, be liable or responsible for any loss, cost damages or expenses incurred or sustained by anyone resulting from any interpretation made by any of our officers, agents or employees. Except for the provision of professional services on a fee basis, GO-ELS Ltd. does not have a commercial arrangement with any other person or company involved in the interests that are the subject of this report. COPYRIGHT © GO-ELS Ltd. The material presented in this report is confidential. This report has been prepared for the exclusive use of World Bank and shall not be distributed or made available to any other company or person without the knowledge and written consent of World Bank or GO-ELS Ltd. REPORT NUMBER: REPORT TITLE: DATE 3rd December 2008 PROJECT REFERENCE: WB Kirgysztan_039 PREPARED: CHECKED: APPROVED: NAME C.R. Golightly SENT EDITION DESCRIPTION COMMENT 03.12.2008 REV. 02 Final Inc. Client Comments 29.10.2008 REV. 01 Draft For Client Comment FILE LOCATION: WB Kirgysztan_039/report GO-ELS Ltd. World Bank: Kyrgyzstan – Desk and Field Studies Report Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................... 5 2. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 6 3. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF WORK ................................................................ 7 3.1 Report Structure .................................................................................................................. 7 3.2 Background .......................................................................................................................... 7 3.3 Study Objectives ................................................................................................................. 8 3.4 Scope of Work ..................................................................................................................... 8 3.5 Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................... 9 4. GEOHAZARDS ....................................................................................................10 4.1 Definition of Geohazard .................................................................................................... 10 4.2 Seismicity of Kyrgyzstan .................................................................................................. 10 4.3 Landslide and Mudflow Risk in Kyrgyzstan ................................................................... 10 4.4 Geohazards Relevant to Road Construction .................................................................. 11 4.5 Geohazards Affecting Kyrgyz Road Network ................................................................. 13 4.6 Kyrgyz Annual and Summary Atlases of Natural Hazards ............................................ 13 5. KYRGYZ REPUBLIC ROAD DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ............................15 5.1 General ............................................................................................................................... 15 5.2 National Ministries and Institutes .................................................................................... 16 5.3 Codes and Standards ........................................................................................................ 16 5.4 Maintenance and Repair ................................................................................................... 17 5.5 Current Practice in Identification and Assessment of Geohazards ............................. 17 6. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF MAJOR GEOHAZARDS ..............................................18 7. GEOHAZARD DESIGN, MONITORING AND MITIGATION .................................20 7.1 GIS Based Geohazards Register ..................................................................................... 20 7.2 Design Techniques ............................................................................................................ 20 7.3 Monitoring and Inspection................................................................................................ 21 7.4 Construction Mitigation Techniques ............................................................................... 21 7.4.1 TRL UK Overseas Road Note 16 (Ref. 24) .................................................................................... 22 7.4.2 SEACAP SE Asia Programme 2007 (Refs. 19, 20 and 21) ........................................................... 23 7.4.3 UK DFID Himalayan Landslide Risk Assessment Studies 2003 (Ref. 25) ..................................... 24 8. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................26 8.1 Geohazards in Kyrgyzstan ............................................................................................... 26 8.2 Economic Assessment ..................................................................................................... 27 9. RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................29 10. REFERENCES .....................................................................................................31 GO-ELS Ltd. World Bank: Kyrgyzstan – Desk and Field Studies Report Tables 1. Geohazards Relevant to Pre-Existing Routes 2. Geohazards Relevant to New Routes 3. Prioritised Transport Corridors 4. SEACAP Road Disruption Costs (Ref. 19) 5. Example Geohazard Risk Assessment Figures 1. Kyrgyz Road Rehabilitation Projects (Ref. 3) 2. Kyrgyz Republic and CAREC Corridors (Ref. 8) 3. Kyrgyz Republic; Schematic Map of Seismic Hazard (Ref. 13) 4. Seismic Zonation Map of Kyrgyzstan (Ref. 13) 5. Schematic Map of Landslide Forecasting (Ref. 13) 6. Schematic Map of Mudflow Hazard Forecasting (Ref. 13) 7. Batken Oblast: Schematic Map of Emergencies Forecasting (Ref. 13) 8. Osh Oblast: Schematic Map of Emergencies Forecasting (Ref. 13) 9. Draft Example of Proposed Road Geohazard Register Appendices A Meeting Notes; Bishkek and Osh B Field Reconnaissance Trips C Site Reconnaissance Photographs D Kyrgyz Road Network E Road Investment and Maintenance Costs in Kyrgyzstan F Road Sector Results Matrix (Ref. 15) G Proposed ADB Maintenance Plan Framework (Ref. 3) GO-ELS Ltd. World Bank: Kyrgyzstan – Desk and Field Studies Report 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In Kyrgyzstan [KG], the existence of natural geological hazards (known as “geohazards”), such as landslides, mudflows and large scale river erosion are common in the more mountainous areas and threaten a “core network” of major roads. This report presents the findings of a study of geohazards along 850 km of roads in southern KG and their potential impact on road rehabilitation projects throughout the country. The study is based upon an assessment of 850 km of road visited, interviews with relevant institution and ministry personnel in Bishkek and Osh and research and information gathering on road rehabilitation in general throughout KG. The KG National Environmental Health Action Plan (NEHAP, 1997) includes a chapter on natural and industrial disasters and requires that effective measures are implemented to prevent and mitigate damage caused by natural hazards. There is a perception and understanding of the importance of natural hazards in KG, although overall road and ancillary structure design is not considered adequate in dealing with the risks from geohazards, in particular from river erosion along substantial sections of road in some areas. This study has shown that the locations and extent of geohazards (predominantly landslides, mudflows and river erosion) have been comprehensively mapped along the “core network” of major routes. There appears to be a good understanding of these issues and expertise within the relevant state organisations within KG. An annually upgraded atlas of natural hazards including maps and detailed descriptions of natural hazards is maintained. However, design, monitoring and mitigation measures necessary to ensure the future integrity of a rehabilitated “core network” is inadequate due to lack of resources and funding. The current response to geohazard and other natural hazard disasters is, due to force of circumstance, reactive. The KG Ministry of Transport and Communications (MOTC) states in it’s Road Sector Development Strategy