THE POWER SYSTEM IN THE EYE OF THE STORM The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize 25years THE POWER SYSTEM IN THE EYE OF THE STORM The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize Migara S. Jayawardena Borja Garcia Serna Jace Jeesun Han Migara S. Jayawardena is a Senior Energy Specialist in the Energy and Extractives Global Practice at the World Bank and the Task Team Leader of the Energy Resilience for Climate Adaptation Project (ERCAP) Borja Garcia Serna is a former Energy Specialist Consultant at the World Bank Jace Jeesun Han is an Energy Specialist Consultant at the World Bank TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD v MESSAGE FROM THE WORLD BANK COUNTRY DIRECTOR vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xi 1. BELIZE AT HIGH RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE 1 2. INCREASED RESILIENCE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL 3 3. THE POWER SYSTEM IN BELIZE 5 4. VULNERABILITIES OF THE POWER SECTOR TO EXTREME WEATHER 9 Tropical Storm Alex 9 Hurricane Dean 13 Hurricane Richard 17 5. BUILDING RESILIENCE FOR ENHANCED CLIMATE ADAPTATION 23 ILLUSTRATION 1: Segmentation of the Transmission Network 24 ILLUSTRATION 2: Strengthening of Transmission Network Structures 27 ILLUSTRATION 3: Improved Vegetation Management 30 ILLUSTRATION 4: Distribution System Infrastructure Strengthening 32 ILLUSTRATION 5: Emergency Response and Recovery Planning 33 6. THE ENERGY RESILIENCE FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION PROJECT 35 BIBLIOGRAPHY 39 The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize iii FOREWORD Honorable Minister Frank Mena Minister of State for Ministry of Finance, Public Service, Energy & Public Utilities Belize is a country that is blessed with history and of energy infrastructure, storm surges along the beauty. It has unrivaled marine life in the Caribbean extensive coastal areas damaging electrical Sea along the longest barrier reef in the Northern equipment, electrical faults from fallen trees, and Hemisphere. Our lush tropical forests not only serve increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns causing as a habitat to an array of wild life, but also conceal volatility in hydropower availability—these are all ruins from ancient Mayan civilizations that thrived realities that we live with in Belize. While we have centuries ago. The true beauty of Belize, of course, little control over the weather and the climate, we is its people—a multi-ethnic community at a cultural do have the power to take action to better adapt cross road living in peace and harmony. A large and to such adversity. growing number of tourists visit Belize to experience these wonders, which has become a key economic I welcome this paper and its accompanying analyses driver. Bountiful resources contribute to agricultural that served as a basis for the interventions planned industries, fisheries and logging that play an impor- under the Energy Resilience for Climate Adaptation tant role in economic growth. The relatively recent Project with support from the World Bank through discovery of oil is further exemplifying the importance the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and techni- of the energy sector in Belize. These developments cal assistance from the Energy Sector Management have helped our economy grow with prosperity Assistance Program (ESMAP). The authors apply a shared among many. However, these hard earned novel approach evaluating the impact of several gains are fragile, and could easily face set-backs. past storms and hurricanes on the power system by identifying specific “events” that led to a variety of One major concern we often grapple with is infrastructure damage and electricity service disrup- extreme weather, which is likely to get worse in tions. Such an analysis lends valuable insights into the future because of climate change. As the title not only the resulting financial losses to the power of this paper indicates, Belize is often in the Eye company, but even more significantly, the broader of the Storm. Our geographical location makes economic impact due to the unserved electricity. It Belize highly susceptible to hurricanes and tropi- highlights the need to harden energy infrastructure cal storms that frequent the Caribbean. They often and strengthen the institutional capabilities so as to lead to significant damages and economic losses, enhance the resilience of the power system in order which serve as major set-backs to our development to minimize damages and service disruptions from progress. Belize’s infrastructure is particularly vul- future storms and hurricanes. The paper also illus- nerable, and the power sector is no exception. trates a set of scenarios that is particularly important High winds knocking down power lines, flooding in identifying and justifying various actions Belize The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize v Electricity Limited (BEL) plans to take in order to identify its vulnerabilities, the analytical approach improve system reliability in the face of extreme applied by the authors is certainly applicable to weather. We are grateful to the World Bank and GEF other countries facing similar concerns, both in the for helping us implement these reforms. region and globally. Therefore, I am pleased that this work is being more broadly disseminated to While the analysis in this paper was carried out inform a wider audience with interest in energy resil- specifically for the power system in Belize to help ience and climate adaption. Minister Frank Mena Minister of State for Ministry of Finance, Public Service, Energy & Public Utilities vi The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize MESSAGE FROM THE WORLD BANK COUNTRY DIRECTOR Addressing the impacts of climate change is a In response, the World Bank is assisting the development imperative. Therefore, the World Bank Government of Belize (GoB) to enhance its resil- places great importance in supporting countries ience against extreme weather by building climate that take actions in reducing the harmful impacts resilient roads and making the power system bet- of climate change. This is the case of Belize, where ter prepared and resilient to storms, hurricanes and the World Bank in recent years has strategically natural hazards. bolstered its effort to enhance resilience in order to reduce vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate This report presents an innovative approach to change and natural hazards. identify and analyze particular vulnerabilities in the power sector in Belize; and helps formulate and val- Belize is often affected by extreme weather events, idate potential solutions. Evaluating past extreme frequently facing hurricanes and tropical storms. weather events helped us better understand future The impacts of these storms can be devastating, risks and potential disruptions to electricity services. causing casualties, damaging property, and leading The World Bank team benefitted greatly from the to disruptions in services that are vital to a thriv- close collaboration with officials from Government ing economy. Steady development progress can and the national electricity utility (BEL) as well as suddenly be set back. The impact on infrastructure other partners. The financial support of the Energy services can have particular significance because of Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) its permeating role throughout the economy facili- and the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) was tating productive activity and the provision of social also critical. Ultimately, the analysis helped shape services; and the substantial costs associated with the design of the Energy Resilience for Climate infrastructure damage recovery. The urgency and Adaptation project in Belize. need to address these issues is perfectly exempli- fied by Hurricane Earl that made landfall in Belize I am pleased to share this analysis which I think is on August 4, 2016. The high winds and heavy flood- very relevant for countries across the Caribbean that ing that resulted reportedly made key roads and face similar challenges, but can also be applied in bridges impassable, water services inoperable in other countries where power sectors are vulnerable directly impacted areas, and caused major disrup- to extreme weather and climate change. tions to electricity services. Sophie Sirtaine Country Director for the Caribbean The World Bank The Power System in the Eye of the Storm: The Call for Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in Belize vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Migara S. Jayawardena, Borja Garcia Serna and Jace Jeesun Han This paper analyzes the impact of two hurricanes and Design), Guadalupe Rosado (Superintendent, and a tropical storm that affected Belize in order Northern Operations), Rodney Baird (Superintendent, to identify some key vulnerabilities in the power Central Operations), and Khadija Usher (Trainee system to extreme weather, which is likely to be Engineer, Power Generation Planning). A number of exacerbated due to climate change. By addressing other BEL personnel also provided comments during these weaknesses, Belize can significantly enhance the various discussions and presentations around dif- its energy resilience and adaptive capacity. The ferent versions of the paper. Additional guidance was authors carried out the analyses and wrote the paper provided by officials from the GoB including Colin during the preparation of the Energy Resilience for Young (former CEO of Ministry of Energy, Science & Climate