3 METRICS FOR TECHNOLOGY PERFORMANCE A customer pays for value. We often associate functionality with value and how well the product or service performs that function as performance. Though this is often true, it is always impor- tant to keep in mind that what we think is of value to the customer, may not always be the case. This is illustrated in Figure 3-1. In the context of information handling devices, performance is related to the specific function of the various types of information handling. © 1982 by Sidney Harris – “What’s So Funny About Computers?”, William Kaufmann, Inc./ ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 16065 Figure 3-1. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 3-1 Metrics for Technology Performance INFORMATION HANDLING TECHNOLOGIES Our society has always had a thirst for information, and technology has been fueling the revolu- tion in how we access information since the Gutenberg press first churned out 42 line Bibles in 1454. Information is handled in four basic ways: ¥ processed ¥ transmitted ¥ stored ¥ interfaced with the physical world Every task performed by every electronic device fits into one of these four tasks. Figure 3-2 lists examples of each of these activities. Computers, communications and consumer products are huge markets for information handling. Information Processing Data compression Image morphing Database searching Translation Information Transmission Telephone transmission over twisted pair TV transmission over radio waves PDA to PC over IR link IDE controller to hard drive over SCSI bus Information Storage Floppy drive Hard drive CD Magnetic tape Information Interface CRT monitor Keyboard Mouse Speakers Source: ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 22164 Figure 3-2. Four Information Operations Information processing is the transformation of data into information. This is a pervasive task which happens in virtually all electronic systems from supercomputers to digital watches embed- ded in pens or rings. It only takes a few gates to process information, and when a 4-bit embed- ded microcontroller costs 25¢ in high volume, it is only a matter of time before any device with access to a battery or is plugged in the wall will be capable of information processing. 3-2 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION Metrics for Technology Performance Information transmission is the transport of data from one location to another. Every electronic interconnect interface is devoted to either power or information transmission. This task spans from transistor to transistor on a chip in 2 micron long fine line aluminum wires, to 45 kilometer long fiber-optic cables from repeater to repeater station, two miles deep in the Atlantic Ocean. In a scale appropriate to our human size, we are touched by information transmission on a daily basis over telephone lines, by electromagnetic waves to radios and by infrared links from our remote control to a TV. Information storage is the placement of data in a static media where it can be located and retrieved at a later time. This task spans the scale from on chip registers that may be only 16 bits wide, through optical disk farms that may contain 10,000 CD discs, each with 10Gbits of data. There are three currently used electronic media for information storage: semiconductorÑin various forms of random access memory (RAM), such as dynamic (DRAM), static (SRAM), video (VRAM), flash, etc.; magnetic, such as magnetic tape, floppy disks and hard disks; and optical, such as compact disks (CDs), and digital video disks (DVDs). Information interface refers to the transfer of information from the physical world to the elec- tronic world, either as input or as output. The Man-Machine interface is a specialized case. The most common output interfaces encompass visual display devices such as CRT (cathode ray tube), LCD (liquid crystal display) and printers, or sound generation through speakers. Vibration is also popular as an output for pagers, transmitting one bit of information. The most popular input devices today are keyboards, mice, pen-touch screens and microphones for use with voice recognition software. In addition to the Man-Machine interfaces, there is a whole universe of sen- sors and actuators that are used in monitor and control applications for automotive, home and industrial environments. Though only information processing and transmission are discussed below, the packaging tech- nologies used in all four applications are discussed throughout this book. INFORMATION PROCESSING The Migration from Super Computer to Shirt Pocket There has never been, and will never be, enough processing power available to the individual. The functions performed by super computers today will eventually be performed by personal computers and PDAs tomorrow. Those functions only dreamed of now, will some day be per- formed by the leading-edge super computers. Information processing, or computing power, is an intrinsic feature of every electronic device we use. We call some of these devices computers, such as a mainframe, server, personal computer or laptop. And some we do not recognize as computers, yet have information processing as their INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 3-3 Metrics for Technology Performance foundation, such as digital cell phones, cameras, personal digital assistants, TVs, washing machines, and sewing machines. Computers have become embedded into virtually every elec- tronic device that plugs into the wall or is powered by a battery. The performance of a computer is not the factor that classifies it as a mainframe or a microcom- puter. Any table that listed the MIPS (millions of instructions per second) or FLOPS (Floating Point Operations Per Second) rating of a ÒtypicalÓ super computer would be out of date within a few years of its introduction. For example, in 1982, a super computer was defined as a computer of about 20MegaFLOPS or higher. In 1989, the Intel 33MHz 486DX had a peak speed of 27MIPS, roughly equivalent to 20MegaFLOPS, the threshold for super computer speed. Also in 1989, NEC introduced the SX-X, at 22GigaFLOPS, three orders of magnitude higher than the super computer threshold. This ever increasing trend in performance is shown in Figure 3-3. The performance of any computer family is a constantly increasing quantity. $12M 105 Cray T90 Cray C90 Cray T3E Cray Y-MP 4 Cray T3D 10 Cray 2 Cyber 205 er Second) Cray X-MP 103 Cray 1 Intel iPSC TMC CM-1 102 CDC 7600 IBM 360/90 (DEC VAX 780) 10 CDC 6600 IBM 7094 Illiac IV IBM Stretch (DEC PDP11) IBM 7090 (IBM 360) IBM (PDP6) 1 704 eak Speed (Millions of Operations P (DEC PDP1) P $5M 0.1 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Source: Physics Today/ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 21981 Figure 3-3. Leading Edge Growth of Computer Technologies Since 1955 Rather than performance capability, a computer or information appliance is defined by its form factor. The form factor reflects the physical size of the product, the number of people it can serve and its shape. These factors also define general price ranges for each form factor. A variety of 3-4 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION Metrics for Technology Performance form factors have emerged for computer systems and information appliances over the last few decades (Figure 3-4). As electronics technology evolves, these form factors and market prices stay relatively the same. What changes is the performance capability of each product. Super Computer 100 Inches $10M Mainframe Computer Server Workstation PC HDTV Laptop Fax Notebook Camera Telephone Calculator Watch 1 Inch $1 Size Price Relative Performance Source: ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 15778A Figure 3-4. Form Factors for Electronic Systems The real revolutions in new products are occurring in the large form factors and in the smallest form factors. At the high end, the total processing capability available to run an individual pro- gram opens up new problems to simulation, in a reasonable time period. For example, to simu- late and predict the local weather for the next day, in less than one dayÕs worth of computation time, requires an estimated performance of 100GigaFLOPS. Higher levels of chip integration have allowed what was PC performance to migrate into the shirt pocket. This is seen in the new generation of Òpersonal information managersÓ such as the Zaurus, the Pilot and the Wizard, as well as the Notebooks, such as from Toshiba, Compaq, and IBM. This evolution of microprocessor performance is illustrated in Figure 3-5. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 3-5 Metrics for Technology Performance 3 10 Pentium Pro PC er Second) Pentium PC $5K 2 10 Macintosh Sun WS PC IBM PC Apollo WS 10 Apple II Altair 8800 1 Intel 4004 DEC PDPS $30K 0.1 eak Speed (Millions of Operations P P 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Source: Physics Today/ICE, "Roadmaps of Packaging Technology" 21980 Figure 3-5. Functional/Affordable Growth of Computer Technology Since 1955 In between these two extreme form factors there is a steady migration of features and performance from the large systems into the smaller ones. Patrick Gelsinger, who led IntelÕs 80486 design team, has proposed a new law of computing, ÒEvery concept proven useful in mainframes or minicomputers has migrated onto the microprocessor.Ó We might even generalize this more and propose that, ÒAny function performed by a large size computer will eventually be offered in the smallest computers.Ó Driving Forces on Computing Devices The universal driving force for all these devices is more processing power, in a smaller volume, at lower price. This has often been summarized with the phrase, ÒFaster, smaller, cheaper.Ó This march of ever increasing performance density per unit cost is propelled by finding engineering solutions that allow packing into each form factor more gates, able to switch at higher speeds, at a lower manufacturing cost.