CSIS _______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775 -3270 Access Web: ww.csis.org Contact the Author: [email protected] The Ara b-Israeli States Military Balance: National Force s Developments and Trends Anthony H. Cordesman Center for Strategic and International Studies With the Assistance of Khalid Al -Rodhan and Bobby Roshan Working Draft: Revised March 29, 2005 Ple ase note that this document is a working draft and will be revised regularly. To comment, or to provide suggestions and corrections, please e -mail the author at [email protected] . Cordesman: The Arab -Israeli States Military Balance 3/29/05 Page ii Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 5 II. NATIONAL MILITAR Y FORCES ................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 17 THE MILITARY FORCES OF ISRAEL ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................... 17 Israeli Land Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 19 Israeli Air Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 22 Israeli Land -Based Air Defense s ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 23 Israeli Naval Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 24 Israel’s continuing Strategic Challenges ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 25 THE MILITARY FORCES EGYPT ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .26 Egyptian Land Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 27 Egyptian Air Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 29 Egyptian Land -Based Air Defenses ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 29 Egyptian Naval Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 31 Egyptian Paramilitary Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................. 32 THE MILITARY FORCES OF JORDAN ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 33 Jordanian Army ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 33 Jordanian Air Force ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 35 Jordanian Land -Based Air Defenses ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 35 Jordanian Naval Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 35 THE MILITARY FORCES OF LEBANON ................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 35 The Lebanese Army ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 36 The Lebanese Air Force ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 37 Lebanese Naval Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 37 Lebanese Paramilitary Forces and the Hezbollah ................................ ................................ .............................. 37 THE MILITARY FORCES OF PALESTINE ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 37 THE MILITARY FORCES OF SYRIA ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 38 Syrian Land Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 40 Syrian Air and Air Defense Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 41 Syrian Naval Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 43 III. MAJOR TRENDS IN ARAB -ISRAELI FORCES ................................ ................................ .......................... 60 © Copyright 2005, A nthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Cordesman: The Arab -Israeli States Military Balance 3/29/05 Page iii Table of Figures FIGURE 1.1 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 8 THE ARAB -ISRAELI BALANCE : F ORCES IN THE ARAB -ISRAELI “R ING ” S TATES IN 2005 ................................ ................ 8 FIGURE 1.2 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 10 NATIONAL TRENDS IN ARAB -ISRAELI MILITARY SPENDING IN CONSTANT DOLLARS : T HE DECLINE IN ARAB FORCES AS A SHARE OF TOTAL SPENDING : 1985 -1999 ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 10 FIGURE 1.3 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 11 ARAB -ISRAELI MILITARY EXPENDITURES BY COUNTRY : 1997 -2004 ................................ ................................ ........... 11 FIGURE 1.4 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 12 TREND IN PERCENT OF GNP S PENT ON MILITARY FORCES : 1983 -1999: H ALF THE BURDEN OF THE EARLY 1980 S .... 12 IISS E STIMATE OF MILITARY SPENDING AND MANPOWER TRENDS : 1985 -2000 ................................ ......................... 12 FIGURE 1.5 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 13 NATIONAL TRENDS IN ARAB -ISRAELI ARMS DELIVERIES IN CONSTANT DOLLARS ................................ ...................... 13 FIGURE 1.6 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 14 ARAB -ISRAELI NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS AND DELIVERIES BY COUNTRY : 1987 -2003 ................................ ................ 14 FIGURE 1.7 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 15 ARAB -ISRAELI ARMS ORDERS BY SUPPLIER COUNTRY : 1988 -2003 ................................ ................................ ............ 15 FIGURE 1.8 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 16 THE COMPARATI VE SIZE OF US M ILITARY ASSISTANCE AND COMMERCIAL ARMS SALES TO THE ARAB -ISRAELI RING STATES : 1986 -2001 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 16 FIGURE 2.1 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 44 FORCE TRENDS IN ISRAEL ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 44 FIGURE 2.2 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 46 FORCE TRENDS IN EGYPT ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 46 FIGURE 2.3 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 48 FORCE TRENDS IN JORDAN ................................ ...............................