Author: Willem Verdaasdonk Co-Authors: Wessel van Beelen and Ricardo Neefjes S1223194 Alister Reed Wednesday 24th August 2016 Total Word Count: 50025 Page Count: 152 Joint work Pages: 1-43, 112-152 Masters Thesis conflict Analysis Thesis capstone project-conflict dynamics 1 Abstract This capstone thesis aims to study what factors play a role before and during a conflict and how conflicts move from one conflict phase to the next. This particular thesis uses the case study of the Rhodesian Bush War a conflict waged from 1965 to 1980 in the now know republic of Zimbabwe. This thesis starts by giving a general overview of the entire conflict by looking at the role of the Rhodesian government, military as well as the political and military developments of both guerrilla movements (ZAPU/ZANU). After which an analysis will be done based on the criteria of the capstone project (context, state, and non-state) focusing on the factors that influenced the conflict, and coming to a general conclusion. After which a joint analysis and conclusion will be presented to see the similarities in two other case studies conducted for this capstone project, these being the Troubles in Northern Ireland and the Sendero in Peru. 2 Content 1. Joint introduction……………………………….……5 2. Literature review……………………………….…….7 • 2.1 Underlying theories……………………….…….7 • 2.2 General definitions…………………….………..8 • 2.3 Latent conflict…………………………………..12 • 2.4 Conflict emergence……………………….…….14 • 2.5 Conflict escalation……………………….……..19 • 2.6 Stalemate………………………………….…….20 • 2.7 Conflict De-escalation……………………….….22 • 2.8 Dispute settlement………………………………25 • 2.9 Peace building…………………………………..28 3. Research methodology……………………………….….31 • 3.1 Central research question……………………….31 • 3.2 Quantiative vs qualitative……………………….31 • 3.3 Historical research analysis……………………..32 • 3.4 Analytical Framework………………………..…33 • 3.5 Method of Data-gathering………………………40 4. Individual master thesis case study Rhodesia…………....43 • 4.1 Introduction……………………………….…,,,..44 • 4.2 Background to the conflict……………………...45 • 4.3 The honeymoon period 1965-1970………..........47 • 4.4 The republic of Rhodesia and the struggle for independence 1970-mid- 1974…………………………………………….…..56 • 4.5 The uneasy stalemate and resumption of hostilities mid-1974- 1976…………………………………………………………….…...69 • 4.6 When the guerillas came march in 1977-1979..…78 • 4.7 Analysis…………………………………………..90 o Context…………………………………...90 o State .……………………………………..96 o Non-state………………………………….103 • 4.8 Analysis conclusion…………………….….…110 5. Joint Analysis ………………………………………….112 3 • 5.1 Context……………………………………..…..112 • 5.2 State…………………………………………….121 • 5.3 Non-state………………………………………...130 6. Joint conclusion………………………………………..…135 7. Methodology reflection …………………………….....….139 8. Policy recommendations……………………………….…142 9. Bibliography…………………………………………....…144 List of illustrations Conflict phases graph…………………………………………….7 Conflict resolution framework…………………………………,,,12 Basic classification graph of political violence ……………….…14 Peace progress graph …………………………………………….26 Factors of actors………………………………………………….34 Geopolitical situation Rhodesia 1965…………………………….47 Immigration and Emigration of white Rhodesians………………..49 Geopolitical situation Rhodesia 1970+altena farm attack………..56 Map of Northern Rhodesia………………………………………..60 (96) Number of people in the Rhodesian armed forces………………...62 Map show areas of operation for Rhodesian armed forces………..63 (105) Geopolitical situation 1974……………………………………..….69 Map showing areas of guerilla activity in Rhodesia mid 1979…78 Estimated number of guerillas operating inside Rhodesia …….82 ZANLA combatants killed during the Rhodesian bush war ………98 Black population vs white population……………………………..100 Map showing areas of operation ZANLA (ZANU) and ZIRPA (ZAPU)…..104 Casualties per area of operation……………………………………105 Fractionalization map of guerilla forces……………………………107 Casualty rates 1972-1976…………………………………………...108 4 1. Joint Introduction “So why do we study war? I think most obviously, simply to survive. In the 20th century, a hundred and fifty million people, a hundred and fifty million people died as a result of war. Hundreds, millions, were disfigured, wounded or had their homes destroyed. War, has this horrific capacity. War is something that when it comes to us, we might not survive it, and as our capacity to impose violence on each other we had better understand exactly what it is” – Miguel Centeno (Coursera, 2016). As Miguel Centeno argues in the above quote, it is extremely important to study war, not only to understand it, but also to prevent it from happening. This paper will contribute to this effort by not only focusing on why a war starts or ends, but also by focusing on what happens during the war. What actions and decision by which specific actor escalated or de-escalated the war? Or why does one group suddenly decide to kill another group it lived with peacefully for years? This paper will especially focus on these questions in the following conflicts: 1) the Rhodesian Bush War, 2) the Internal Conflict in Peru and 3) The Troubles in Ireland. The Rhodesian Bush War was a civil war which lasted from July 4, 1964 to December 12, 1979 which led to universal suffrage, the end of the white minority-rule in Rhodesia and the creation of the Republic of Zimbabwe. The main actors during this war were the white- government under the leadership of Ian Smith who fought against Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) and against Joshua Nkomo’s Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU). The war which would last more than fifteen years, would cost more than 30.000 lives (New World Encoclopedia, 2016). The Internal Conflict in Peru began in 1980, on the eve of the first election Peru after more than seventeen years of military rule. After the Maoist organization, Sendero Luminoso, was led by a charismatic leader called Abimael Guzmán, burned the ballot papers in a small town in Peru’s countryside. What followed was a twenty-year internal conflict which would cost between the 30.000 to 70.000 lives (Peru Support Group, 2016) The Troubles was a violent thirty-year conflict that was framed by a civil rights march in Londonderry on 5 October 1968 and later the Good Friday Agreement on 10 April 1998. At the heart of this conflict lay the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. It was a war characterized by many actors who all engaged in killings. Eventually the death toll exceeded 3.600 people, and 50.000 more were wounded (BBC History, 2016). This thesis will have a slightly different structure than a “normal” thesis. The first part is a joint literature review and methodology which is the foundation of this paper. The second part contains the three internal conflicts, each researched and analyzed individually. The third 5 part of this paper will contain the joint analysis where the main differences and similarities between these three conflicts will be highlighted. Finally, the last section of this paper contains the main findings and conclusions on the basis of which policy advise is suggested. 6 2. Literature review 2.1 Underlying theories of conflict In this literary review we will explore the various theories and concepts surrounding conflict studies following the various stages as outlined by the graph below. We begin with latent conflict where the conflict has not yet began but underlying tension are beginning to be shown. This is then followed by conflict emergence where these tensions are now openly shown in the wider public space and some small acts of violence begin to occur, this in turn results in conflict escalation where violence and war occurs. However, as the conflict drags on a stalemate or a hurting stalemate occurs where none of the parties involved benefit anymore from the conflict and seek for a way out. This eventually leads to a de-escalation of the conflict and a start of negotiations in the hope of creating a settlement, which would result in a dispute settlement, which should end the conflict. The final phase of the conflict then transpires where peace building is conducted so that underlying tensions are resolved and stability can return to a country. It must however be noted that while we use this model to outline the various theories and concepts throughout a conflict, the conflict itself can vary where after a hurting stalemate instead of de-escalation occurring, conflict escalation re- occurs again. With that noted we begin with the latent conflict. By splitting up the concepts and theories in the literature review by each phase it allows us to adequately use the concepts in the relevant phase during our own conflict analysis and thus give deeper insights. Additionally, by doing so in the literary review there will not be any future confusion where each theory and concept belongs as opposed to debating it in our conflict analysis. Conflict phases model (Eric Brahm, http://www.beyondintractability.org) 7 2.2 General definitions and terms Irregular warfare Irregular warfare also known by various other degree of names (such asymmetric, guerrilla, unconventional warfare etc) is often referred to when mentioning a conflict where conventional military force is not used or irregular forces are used against a conventional military force. While the term is hard to define as it encompasses many various things the US Department of Defence has used two main forms of defining irregular warfare the first is “A form of warfare that has as its objective the credibility and/or legitimacy of the relevant political