The Korean Military Balance Military Korean The The Korean Military Balance comparative korean forces and the forces of key neighboring states 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org Author Anthony H. Cordesman Cordesman With Andrew Gagel, Varun Vira, Alex Wilner, and Robert Hammond July 2011 ISBN 978-0-89206-632-2 Ë|xHSKITCy066322zv*:+:!:+:! CSIS The Korean Military Balance comparative korean forces and the forces of key neighboring states Anthony H. Cordesman With Andrew Gagel, Varun Vira, Alex Wilner, and Robert Hammond July 2011 About CSIS At a time of new global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to decisionmakers in government, international institutions, the private sector, and civil society. A bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways for America to sustain its prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent international policy institutions, with more than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focused on defense and security, regional stability, and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global development and economic integration. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). Cover photo: South China Sea—Republic of Korea marines assault a landing zone from the United States Marine Corps CH-46E Sea Knights, assigned to Marine Medium Helicopter Squadron (HMM) 265 (Reinforced), in the rice fields east of Manripo Beach, ROK, for Exercise Foal Eagle. U.S. Navy photo. © 2011 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN 978-0-89206-632-2 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Cordesman, Anthony H. The Korean military balance : comparative Korean forces and the forces of key neighboring states / Anthony H. Cordesman ; with the assistance of Andrew Gagel ... [et al.]. p. cm. “Revised: April 30, 2011.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-89206-632-2 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Korea (South)--Military policy. 2. Korea (North)-- Military policy. 3. Korea (South)--Armed Forces. 4. Korea (North)--Armed Forces. 5. East Asia-- Military policy. 6. East Asia--Armed Forces. 7. Balance of power--Case studies. 8. Escalation (Military science)--Case studies. 9. Korea (South)--Military relations--Korea (North) 10. Korea (North)--Military relations--Korea (South) I. Gagel, Andrew. II. Title. UA853.K6C67 2011 355'.0330519--dc23 2011019947 Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 887-0200 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org contents List of Figures vi Acknowledgments ix Executive Summary x Key Limits to the Data x The Resource, Arms Import, and Military Spending Balance xi The “Conventional” Warfare Balance xi The Asymmetric or Irregular Warfare Balance xiii The Nuclear and CBRN Warfare Balance xiv The Balance of Weapons of Mass Effectiveness and “Offensive” vs. “Defensive” Weapons xviii The Balance of Different Perceptions xviii 1. Korean and Northeast Asia Military Expenditures and Comparative Resources 1 East Asian Military Spending 1 DPRK Military Spending 1 DPRK and ROK Military Modernization 2 DPRK and ROK Capacity for Military Efforts 2 2. The Conventional Military Balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia 19 Uncertain Patterns of Conflict and Escalation 20 Looking at Key Trends 22 Western Data from International Institute of Strategic Studies 22 Data from Korean Defense White Papers 24 Data from the Japanese White Paper for 2010 25 International Institute of Strategic Studies Conventional Force Estimates 26 Republic of Korea (ROK) Conventional Force Estimates 49 Government of Japan Conventional Force Estimates 64 3. US Forces in Korea and the Pacific 67 US Forces in Korea 67 US Forces in Japan and USPACOM 71 | iii 4. Special, Asymmetric, and Paramilitary Forces 81 Special and Asymmetric Forces 83 Paramilitary, Police, and Internal Security Forces 83 5. Counterterrorism, Terrorism, and Low-Level Asymmetric Warfare 100 6. Korean Missile and WMD Forces 103 DPRK Nuclear Developments 104 Weaponization 107 The Early Program 107 Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the 1993–1994 Crisis 108 The Collapse of the Agreed Framework (1994–2003) 109 Uranium Enrichment and Renewed Crisis 110 The October 2006 Test and 2007 Accords 112 The May 2009 Test 113 Facilities 114 Recent Developments 119 Probable Weaponization 120 DPRK Missile Developments 121 The Hwasŏng and Toksa Programs 125 The Nodong 125 The Taepogong Program 126 The Musudan 129 Facilities 130 DPRK Chemical/Biological Developments 133 Chemical 133 Biological 141 ROK Nuclear Developments 146 Initial Weapons Research 146 Reprocessing and Enrichment Activities 147 ROK Missile Developments 148 The Early Program—The NHK Program 149 The Hyunmu-3 Cruise Missile 149 ROK Space Programs 151 iv | the korean military balance ROK’s Chemical and Biological Developments 151 Chemical 151 Biological 152 7. The Broader Balance of WMD, Missile, and Strategic Forces 153 The Balance of Weapons of Mass Effectiveness 158 China and Strategic Asymmetric Warfare 158 The US and Extended Regional Deterrence 163 The Strategic “Offensive” Character of “Defensive” Weapons 164 anthony h. cordesman | v List of Figures Figure 1.1: Military Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP, 2000–2009 (SIPRI) 5 Figure 1.2: Defense Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP, 2006–2010 (IISS) 6 Figure 1.3: Military Expenditures by the Major Asian Powers, 2000–2010 (SIPRI) 7 Figure 1.4: Northeast Asian Defense Expenditures, 2000–2010 (IISS) 8 Figure 1.5: Northeast Asian Per Capita Defense Expenditures: 2007–2010 (IISS) 9 Figure 1.6: The DPRK Defense Budget 10 Figure 1.7: Military Modernization Trends on Korean Peninsula 11 Figure 1.8: Defense Reform 2020 (2005) Plans for ROK Modernization 14 Figure 1.9: ROK Mid-term Force Improvement Plan 17 Figure 1.10: Relocation of ROK Forces 18 Figure 2.1: Northeast Asian Military Manpower in 2011 26 Figure 2.2a: Army Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia 27 Figure 2.2b: Northeast Asian Modern Main Battle Tanks versus Total Holdings, 2011 29 Figure 2.2c: Northeast Asian Armored Fighting Vehicles, 2011 30 Figure 2.2d: Northeast Asian Modern AFVs (MBTs, APCs, AAVs, AIFVs) versus Total Holdings of Other Armored Vehicles, 2011 31 Figure 2.2e: Northeast Asian Artillery Strength, 2011 32 Figure 2.3a: Navy Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia 33 Figure 2.3b: Northeast Asian Naval Combat Ships, 2011 37 Figure 2.3c: Northeast Asian Naval Combat Ships by Category, 2011 38 Figure 2.3d: Northeast Asian Submarines by Type, 2011 39 Figure 2.4a: Air Force Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia 40 Figure 2.4b: Northeast Asian Fixed Wing Combat Aircraft by Branch, 2011 41 Figure 2.4c: Northeast Asian Fixed Wing Combat Aircraft by Type, 2011 42 Figure 2.4d: Northeast Asian Rotary Wing Combat Aircraft by Branch, 2011 43 Figure 2.4e: Northeast Asian Rotary Wing Aircraft by Type, 2011 44 Figure 2.4f: Northeast Asian Modern Air Force Combat Aircraft versus Total Combat Aircraft, 2011 45 Figure 2.5a: Korean and Northeast Asian Air/Missile Defenses 46 Figure 2.5b: Korean and Northeast Asian Air/Missile Defenses, 2011 47 Figure 2.5c: Northeast Asian Air Force Air Defenses, 2010 48 Figure 2.6a: ROK Estimate of Korean Force Balance in 2010: Manpower 49 Figure 2.6b: ROK Estimate of Korean Force Balance in 2010: Army 50 vi | the korean military balance Figure 2.6c: ROK Estimate of Korean Force Balance in 2010: Navy 51 Figure 2.6d: ROK Estimate of Korean Force Balance in 2010: Air Force 52 Figure 2.6e: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Balance in 2010: Manpower 53 Figure 2.6f: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Balance in 2010: Army 54 Figure 2.6g: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Balance in 2010: Navy 55 Figure 2.6h: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Balance in 2010: Air Force 56 Figure 2.6i: ROK Estimates of DPRK Military Manpower, 2010 57 Figure 2.6j: ROK Estimates of DPRK Army Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 57 Figure 2.6k: ROK Estimates of DPRK Navy Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 58 Figure 2.6l: ROK Estimates of DPRK Air Force Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 58 Figure 2.6m: ROK Estimates of ROK Army Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 59 Figure 2.6n: ROK Estimates of ROK Navy Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 59 Figure 2.6o: ROK Estimates of ROK Air Force Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 60 Figure 2.6p: ROK Diagram of DPRK Force Organization 61 Figure 2.6q: ROK Army Organization 62 Figure 2.6r: ROK Naval Organization 62 Figure 2.6s: ROK Air Force Organization 63 Figure 2.7a: Japanese Summary Estimates of Forces on the Korean Peninsula in 2010 64 Figure 2.7b: Japanese Estimates of Japanese Self-Defense Forces 65 Figure 2.7c: Japanese Estimates of Chinese Armed Forces in 2010 66 Figure 3.1: Japanese Estimates of US, ROK, and