2009 National Security and Nonproliferation Briefing Book PREPARED BY THE Peace and Security Initiative NOVEMBER 2008 Table of Contents Preface iii Introduction 1 Rebalancing and Reorganizing the Government to Better Address National Security Challenges 3 Moving to a World Free of Nuclear Weapons 7 Taking Nuclear Forces Off Day-to-Day Alert 13 START I and Future Nuclear Weapons Reductions 17 The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty 21 Building a New Generation of Nuclear Weapons and Rebuilding the Nuclear Weapons Production Complex 25 Preventing Nuclear Terrorism 29 U.S. Homeland Security 33 The Iraq War 37 U.S. Iran Relations: The Nuclear Program, Iraq, and the Region 41 U.S.-Russian Relations and Nuclear Nonproliferation 45 U.S.-China Relations 49 The North Korean Nuclear Challenge 53 Reducing the Risks from Pakistan’s Nuclear Complex 57 U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation Agreement 61 Commercial Nuclear Spent Fuel Reprocessing and the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership 65 Missile Defense 69 Weapons in Space 73 Biological and Chemical Weapons 77 Small Arms/Light Weapons and Arms Export Controls 81 Arms Transfers and Security Assistance 85 Appendix A—Arms Control Agreements and Issues 89 Preface The 2009 National Security and Nonproliferation Briefing Book is a project coordinated by the Peace and Secu- rity Initiative (PSI), and generously supported by the Connect US Fund. PSI is a coalition of over 250 advocacy organizations, grassroots groups, think tanks, academics, and funders working together to increase their capacity to influence U.S. policy to promote a more secure, peaceful, and just world. More information about PSI can be found at www.peaceandsecurityinitiative.org. We are grateful to all the authors and reviewers who have contributed their time and expertise to this publication. Please note that not every organization or author endorses or necessarily works on every issue area addressed in this briefing book. The opinions and recommendations in this book are those of the individual authors alone and should not be attributed to PSI. Finally, we wish to thank Alexandra Toma, John Isaacs, Stephen Schwartz, and Sally James for their particular investment of time with this project. The PSI Implementation Team November 2008 2009 National Security and Nonproliferation Briefing Book iii Introduction The presidential election of 2008 and the forthcoming Executive Orders, the initiatives that get launched in inauguration of Barack Obama as the forty-fourth the first one hundred days are limited in number, while president of the United States in 2009 represent more Cabinet secretaries and agency heads and their subor- than a simple change in leadership. We are at war in dinates are being confirmed by the Senate and settle Iraq and Afghanistan and in a long-term struggle with into their new jobs. For issues without pressing urgency Al Qaeda and its affiliates, while facing the possibil- or high candidate commitment, the competition for ity of another nuclear weapons state in Iran and the attention can be overwhelming. approach of a potential global warming catastrophe. At the same time, Russia has challenged the existing The proliferation of nuclear weapons and the attendant order with its intervention in Georgia, and China has possibility of catastrophic nuclear events rank among become a world economic power, with India moving the most serious and potentially existential threats to forward as well. the United States and the world. During the first 2004 presidential debate, both major candidates declared the American resources to deal with these problems are nexus of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction constrained, and our ability to persuade others to work the greatest national security threat; that threat has not with us is at its lowest point in memory. To offer the diminished with time. This year, both presidential can- next president and his administration a guide in this didates spoke often of proliferation, a further indica- uncertain terrain, the Peace and Security Initiative has tion of the importance of the issue and the candidates’ prepared this National Security and Nonproliferation commitment. Briefing Book for the Presidential Transition Teams. But the proliferation issue set is complicated, involves Each new administration has to confront a compressed numerous elements, and each component may re- timeframe between its election in November and quire a lengthy time period and constant attention taking up the reins of government in January. Each to complete. The issues generally reside in no single administration appoints transition teams for the Execu- department or agency and require an often extensive tive Office of the President and the various depart- interagency process for resolution. The general public ments and agencies of the federal government to gather has only a vague notion of the seriousness of the issues; issues and information from the career bureaucracy, to and, despite the great and growing risk of catastrophe develop and flesh out the new administration’s agenda, resulting from inaction, the sense of urgency has only and to prepare for confirmation hearings for political limited public resonance. As a result, without a con- appointees. sistent senior level champion and a strategic plan with clear priorities and sequencing, there is a danger that These teams generally have steep learning curves and the agenda will fall back in the queue for attention. the issue focus tends more in the direction of near- term policy formulation and new initiatives and less on In the current environment—in addition to the domes- process and implementation requirements. Except for tic issues like the economy, housing foreclosures and health care demanding attention—the urgent national security agenda will include Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, By Rand Beers, President and Founder, National Pakistan, terrorism, and relations with China and, Security Network. Reviewed by John Isaacs, especially, with Russia. While several of these issues Executive Director, Council for a Livable World. encompass proliferation and nuclear weapons, they are 2009 National Security and Nonproliferation Briefing Book 1 not of singular importance in any of them. Thus, for Each briefing paper includes background material, the ability to ensure a presidential-level focus on non- talking points, the present state of play, and recom- proliferation faces a further “crowding out” challenge. mendations and policy options for the next president. This briefing book is an effort to address the prolifera- While the principal focus of the book is nonprolifera- tion issue and other national security challenges and tion and nuclear weapons, these issues do not exist in these constraints head on. Each paper is written by one a vacuum. Consequently, there are also sections on or more distinguished experts. The book is organized related regional issues, such as Iraq, Iran, North Korea into sections ranging from weapons reduction and and Pakistan, Russia, and China, and other substantive control of fissile materials to reducing the dangers issues, including government organization for national of nuclear terrorism and the challenges of Iran’s and security, missile defense, weapons in space, biological North Korea’s nuclear aspirations. and chemical weapons, conventional weapons, and homeland security. In short, this briefing book is a primer and guide for the next presidency. 2 Peace and Security Initiative Rebalancing and Reorganizing the Government to Better Address National Security Challenges BACKGROUND and programs. There are now over 20 different federal The new president will face a number of critical foreign institutions and departments involved in international policy and national security challenges. While Iraq and activity and foreign assistance; support for post-conflict Afghanistan may continue to dominate the national intervention and reconstruction is provided through debate, the next administration will need to deal with at least seven different funding channels; and support at least five fundamental issues and underlying trends: for governance and democracy through at least ten programs. Overall, funding and staffing for our civilian ➤ Globalization and the international economy (rising global engagement—traditional diplomacy, public di- energy demand and declining supply, rising food plomacy, and foreign assistance—is inadequate. Where prices, a weakening global economy, and persistent foreign assistance funding has grown—the Millennium poverty in critical regions); Challenge Account and the HIV/AIDS program—it ➤ Governance (failed, fragile and weak states, political has led to the creation of even more new institutions, instability, and the need for effective, efficient and rather than better strategic integration. responsive governance); As a consequence, in part, of civilian institutional weak- ➤ Identity conflicts (religion, ethnicity and nationality); nesses, we have asked our military organizations to per- ➤ Transnational challenges (terrorist organizations, form an expanding range of foreign assistance missions disease, global warming, drugs, and crime); and normally overseen by the civilian institutions. New programs and directives have expanded the military’s ➤ Changing power relations (emerging regional and mission to include reconstruction and stabilization, international powers like China, Russia, Brazil, humanitarian assistance, foreign security force train- India, and Iran; proliferation of nuclear weapons to ing, and