= 5*7&9.43= 7&6.=7**)42a=97&9*,.*8`= 5574&(-*8`=*8:198`=&3)= 88:*8=+47=43,7*88= &9-*7.3*= &1*= 5*(.&1.89=.3= 39*73&9.43&1=*(:7.9>= 57.1=,`=,**3= 43,7*88.43&1= *8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 18/1**= <<<_(78_,4;= -.-21= =*5479=+47=43,7*88 Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress 5*7&9.43= 7&6.= 7**)42a=97&9*,.*8`=5574&(-*8`=*8:198`=&3)= 88:*8=+47=43,7*88= = :22&7>= Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the U.S.-led coalition military operation in Iraq, was launched on March 20, 2003, with the immediate stated goal of removing Saddam Hussein’s regime and destroying its ability to use weapons of mass destruction or to make them available to terrorists. Over time, the focus of OIF shifted from regime removal to the more open-ended mission of helping the Government of Iraq (GoI) improve security, establish a system of governance, and foster economic development. In 2009, the war in Iraq appears to be winding down, as security gains made since the height of the insurgency in 2006 and 2007 continue to be sustained, and as Iraqis increasingly seek management of their own affairs. A new U.S.-Iraqi security agreement that went into effect on January 1, 2009, which confirmed the Iraqis’ responsibility for their own security, introduced a new era in OIF and in US-Iraqi bilateral relations. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates called the agreement a “watershed, a firm indication that American military involvement in Iraq is winding down.” U.S. military commanders on the ground have indicated that in most parts of Iraq, the focus of U.S. military efforts has shifted from counterinsurgency (COIN) to stability operations, including advising the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and supporting security, economic, and governance capacity-building. On February 27, 2009, at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina, President Obama delivered a speech addressing “how the war in Iraq will end,” in which he announced the drawdown of U.S. combat forces by August 2010 and the transition of the rest of the military mission to training and advising Iraq security forces, conducting counter-terrorism operations, and providing force protection for U.S. personnel. The United States begins this transition from a position of significant commitment – including some 140,000 U.S. troops deployed in Iraq, in addition to civilian experts and U.S. contractors, who provide substantial support to their Iraqi counterparts in the fields of security, governance, and development. Senior U.S. officials, including outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, and Secretary Gates, have suggested that lasting change in Iraq will require substantially more time, and that while the U.S. military presence will diminish, U.S. engagement with Iraq is likely to continue. The Government of Iraq (GoI), for its part, still faces challenges at the operational level, in countering the lingering strands of the insurgency; and at the strategic level, in achieving a single, shared vision of the Iraqi state, and in improving its capacity to provide good governance, ensure security, and foster economic development for the Iraqi people. Key policy issues the Obama Administration may choose to address, with oversight from the 111th Congress, include identifying how U.S. national interests and strategic objectives, in Iraq and the region, should guide further U.S. engagement; monitoring and evaluating the impact of the changes in the U.S. presence and role in Iraq; and laying the groundwork for a future, more traditional bilateral relationship. This report is intended to provide background and analysis of current developments and options, and will be updated as events warrant. 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 5*7&9.43= 7&6.= 7**)42a=97&9*,.*8`=5574&(-*8`=*8:198`=&3)= 88:*8=+47=43,7*88= = 439*398= Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Background ............................................................................................................................... 1 Revised U.S.-Iraqi Strategic Partnership................................................................................... 3 Strategic Framework Agreement and Security Agreement................................................. 3 Security Agreement Provisions........................................................................................... 3 Drawdown and Transition.........................................................................................................4 Current Strategic and Operational Dynamics............................................................................ 8 Current Strategic Dynamics: Tests and “Spoilers” ............................................................ 8 Current Operational Dynamics: Transitions ....................................................................... 9 Diminishing U.S. Leverage................................................................................................11 Future Strategic Considerations ...............................................................................................11 Clarifying and Updating U.S. Interests and Strategic Objectives......................................11 Applying Strategic Leverage ............................................................................................ 12 Shaping a Long-Term U.S. Relationship with Iraq........................................................... 13 Defining U.S. Policy Toward Iranian Intervention in Iraq................................................ 13 Assessing the Implications of OIF Lessons for the Future of the Force........................... 14 Applying OIF Lessons to Interagency Coordination ........................................................ 15 Future Operational Considerations.......................................................................................... 16 How Much Help Is Enough?............................................................................................. 16 Further Troop Drawdowns................................................................................................ 17 Future of the Iraqi Security Forces Training Mission....................................................... 18 Transition Teams......................................................................................................... 18 Unit Partnering ........................................................................................................... 19 Capacity-Building....................................................................................................... 19 ISF Training and Advising Under Transition.............................................................. 20 Future of the U.S. Forces Footprint .................................................................................. 20 Coordination on Operations under the Security Agreement ............................................. 21 Civil-Military Roles and Responsibilities......................................................................... 24 Role of Contractors........................................................................................................... 25 Equipment......................................................................................................................... 26 Options Available to Congress ................................................................................................ 27 Structure and Aim of the Report ............................................................................................. 28 Decision to Go to War in Iraq........................................................................................................ 28 Antecedents in the 1990s ........................................................................................................29 Bush Administration Strategy and Role of the United Nations............................................... 29 Ultimatum to Saddam Hussein................................................................................................ 30 War Planning ................................................................................................................................. 31 Strategic Objectives................................................................................................................. 31 Military Objectives.................................................................................................................. 32 Planning for Major Combat .................................................................................................... 32 Post-War Planning................................................................................................................... 35 Inter-Agency Post-War Planning ...................................................................................... 36 Military Post-War Planning .............................................................................................. 38 Organizational Decisions.................................................................................................. 39 Major Combat Operations ............................................................................................................. 40 Early Infiltration...................................................................................................................... 40 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 5*7&9.43= 7&6.= 7**)42a=97&9*,.*8`=5574&(-*8`=*8:198`=&3)= 88:*8=+47=43,7*88= = The Launch.............................................................................................................................