TRENDS TREND: Build-out estimates that by 2020, Park City will have a population of 13,382.4 In 2010, Park City had an average household size of 2.60; if we assume Based on the 2011 City limits, Park City models and equations that are created this household size remains constant, could accommodate approximately for a typical town or city. Park City is an additional 3,444 units (estimated 2,072 additional residential units. atypical, with a high number of second buildout, including the BoPa District SMALL TOWN SMALL Therefore, if this estimate is added to homeowners and seasonal workers, redevelopment) will yield an increase the total number of existing housing which make it difficult to model. For of 5,387 people, for a total of 16,512 units (9,471), the total number of example, while Park City’s population people. However, this assumes that all housing units at build-out should be only grew by 2.5% between 2000 and of the new 3,444 housing units would around 11,700 units. 2010, the number of housing units grew become primary residences, which is by 42%, from 6,661 to 9,471. The vast unlikely given that a large portion of What will this mean in terms of Park majority of this growth was in second the units are planned for areas adjacent City’s population? It is difficult to say. homes (hence, the large difference to the ski resorts. If we assume that In 2000, with 6,661 housing units, in growth rates). Occupied housing the balance of occupied and seasonal Park City had a population of 7,371.1 between 2000 and 2010 increased by housing stays the same throughout Population estimates from the State only 7%, from 2,705 to 2,885, while the next few decades, then we would of Utah’s Governor’s Office of Planning seasonally vacant housing (second expect that 622 of the 3,444 future and Budget suggested that by 2010, homes) increased by 66%, from 3,383 units (or 30%) will be occupied. For Park City would have a population to 5,609. Had the growth in Park City’s purposes of estimating at this time, let’s of 9,185.2 The US Census Bureau housing market added more primary assume that the City’s goals to get more estimated that in 2009, Park City had homes, instead of only 180 in the primary residents is achieved. Let’s a population of 8,127. However, the previous decade, the City’s population assume that 50% of the future residents 2010 Census showed that Park City’s growth could have been more in line will be primary; therefore, 1,722 of the population had only grown to 7,558.3 with the State’s and Census Bureau’s 3,444 units will be occupied year-round. Why was there such a discrepancy estimates. At a constant household size of 2.60, between the estimates and the real Park City would have an additional 4,477 number? Estimating future population growth persons in the City, yielding a build-out depends primarily on the housing population of 12,035 persons. The numbers provided by the US market, and whether the housing units Census Bureau and the State of Utah added are for full-time residents or are estimates which are generated by second homeowners. The State of Utah 274 Park City, the Best Town for the Planet SMALL TOWN SMALL Residential Growth by FUTURE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT Neighborhood Neighborhood Residential Units Old Town 691 Park Meadows 117 Upper Deer Valley 189 Quinn’s Jct. 239 Thaynes 98 Lower Deer Valley 338 Park Meadows 117 Masonic Hill 67 Thaynes 98 Quinn’s Junction 239 Bonanza Park & 33* Bonanza Park & Prospector 33* Prospector Resort Center 300 Resort Center 300 Masonic Hill 67 TOTAL 2,072 *Does not include potential units from the redevelopment of Bonanza Park (est. 1372 units assuming 75% build-out of the 99 acres). Old Town 691 With this redevelopment number included, Lower Deer Valley 338 the full residential build-out would be 3,444 units. How Does the City Calculate Buildout? While it is hard to know exactly when build-out will Future Units occur, it is possible to estimate how many additional (By Neighborhood) units will be built by using geographic information 0 systems (GIS) and data from Summit County. Upper Deer Valley 189 Vacant lots in Park City were identified using data 1-33 from the Summit County Assessor and assigned 34-117 an estimated unit value based on their total area 118 - 200 and the density allowed for each under the Land Management Code (LMC). Also considered were 201-400 current master planned developments (MPDs) and 401-702 the total number of units approved for each. 275 TREND: Build-out (continued) SMALL TOWN SMALL Additional commercial growth the Bonanza Park and Prospector Quinn’s Junction Partnership (QJP) is is expected to support the needs neighborhood as well as Old Town; considering building a 400,000 square of primary residents and second however, Park City Mountain Resort foot entertainment, movie studio, homeowners in these regions. Though and Lower Deer Valley are likely to hotel, and commercial project. no commercial development is experience greater growth as the expected in Park Meadows; Thaynes; resorts expand and increase retail It is worth noting that redevelopment Masonic Hill; and Upper Deer Valley opportunities for visitors. The greatest opportunities in the BoPa District could neighborhoods, other areas will see growth, however, is likely to occur at lead to as many as 1910 additional substantial commercial development. Quinn’s Junction as 250 commercial unit equivalents of commercial Limited development will occur in units remain unbuilt. In addition, the development. 276 Park City, the Best Town for the Planet SMALL TOWN SMALL Commercial Growth by FUTURE COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT Neighborhood Neighborhood Commercial Units Quinn’s Jct. 250 Old Town 31 Park Meadows 0 Park Meadows 0 Upper Deer Valley 0 Thaynes 0 Thaynes 0 Lower Deer Valley 52 Masonic Hill 0 Bonanza Park & Prospector 22 Quinn’s Junction 250 Bonanza Park & 22* Resort Center 92 Masonic Hill 0 Prospector PCMR 92 TOTAL 447 *Does not include potential units from the Old Town 31 redevelopment of Bonanza Park (1910 units Lower Deer Valley 52 assuming 75% build-out of the 99 acres, less the existing commercial SF on the ground). Open Space 0 With this redevelopment number included, the full commercial build-out would be 2,357 units. Future Units (By Neighborhood) Upper Deer Valley 0 0 1-33 34-117 118 - 200 201-400 277 TREND: Regional Growth The Balanced Growth Strategy Outline identified the impacts baseline growth (status quo no additional planning) REGIONAL GROWTH TRENDS IDENTIFIED IN BALANCED GROWTH STUDY would have on Park City’s economy, environment, equity, and quality of life, Over the next 20 years, the Wasatch Back area will change dramatically. Baseline as follows: regional growth trends were projected within the 2012 Balanced Growth Strategy SMALL TOWN SMALL Outline by czbLLC and the Planning Center DC&E.6 The baseline projections Economic Impacts (+++) included Park City and Snyderville Basin within Summit County, as follows: • Population growth will increase 1. The Wasatch Back will grow substantially in the next 20 years. the region’s economic prosperity, putting greater demand on goods 2. Summit County in particular will grow by nearly 30,000 people between and services, increasing the tax base 2012 - 2030. and property values. 3. Summit County will grow from a current population of about 36,000 to nearly • Growth will create additional jobs 70,000 in 30 years, a 90 percent increase. Every month until 2040 roughly 90 to keep up with demand and trend more people will move into Summit County than will move out or pass into the with stable/rising wages. ether. The demand for housing and jobs will be substantial. Where housing is developed in relationship to where the jobs are, and where families settle in relation to the amenities they seek and what they can afford will be largely a function of what kinds of agreements are in place now that shape land use and development. 4. Park City will grow to nearly 10,000 by 2030. a. Deer Valley and Old Town will become even more dominated by seasonal owners. b. Bonanza Park and Lower Park Avenue will probably become denser, more heavily populated districts with the base of PCMR receiving a large number of seasonal buyers. c. It will likely remain one of the most expensive housing markets in the US. d. Demand from the region to “spend” tourist and related dollars in Park City will continue to grow. 278 Park City, the Best Town for the Planet SMALL TOWN SMALL Environmental Impacts (- - -) 120,000 • Significant amounts of undeveloped 100,000 land will be developed as new residential and commercial units. 80,000 Morgan County • Increased demand for scarce water 60,000 resources. Summit County 40,000 Wasatch County • Commuter traffic will increase along with vehicle miles travelled due to 20,000 the expensive cost of housing. 0 • Carbon footprint will increase due to 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 sprawling development. Population projections for Morgan, Summit, and Wasatch County from the Governor's Office of • Loss of wildlife habitat and wildlife Planning and Budget 2012 Baseline Projections corridors. Equity Impacts (- - -) Quality of Life (+ + + - - -) • Housing affordability will be a major • The loss of open space and view • Additional demand for more pressure point, with substantial corridors will influence the region’s seasonal homes will further cement implications for the region directly sense of place.