Net Zero The UK's contribution to stopping global warming Committee on Climate Change May 2019 Net Zero: The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming Committee on Climate Change May 2019 1 © Committee on Climate Change Copyright 2019 The text of this document (this excludes, where present, the Royal Arms and all departmental or agency logos) may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium provided that it is reproduced accurately and not in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Committee on Climate Change copyright and the document title specified. Permission from copyright holders must be sought before any photographs are reproduced. You can download this publication from www.theccc.org.uk/publications All enquiries related to this publication should be sent to: [email protected] 2 Net Zero - The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming | Committee on Climate Change Acknowledgements The Committee would like to thank: The team that prepared this report and its analysis: This was led by Chris Stark and Mike Thompson and included Tom Andrew, Georgina Beasley, Owen Bellamy, Peter Budden, Cloe Cole, James Darke, Ellie Davies, Diana Feliciano, Adrian Gault, Aaron Goater, Rachel Hay, Mike Hemsley, Jenny Hill, David Joffe, Ewa Kmietowicz, Bianca de Farias Letti, Sarah Livermore, Cheryl Mackenzie, Richard Millar, Chloe Nemo, Vivian Scott, Alexandra Scudo, Indra Thillainathan, and Emma Vause. Other members of the Secretariat who contributed to this report: Victoria Abrams, Jo Barrett, Kathryn Brown, Tom Dooks, Cara Labuschagne, Joanna Ptak, Penny Seera, and Sean Taylor. Organisations and individuals that carried out research for the report: ADAS, ATA and Ellondee, Dr Richard Carmichael (Imperial College), Sam Cooper (University of Bath), University of Edinburgh, Element Energy, Energy Systems Catapult, the Grantham Research Institute (Imperial), Imperial College London, University of Leeds, Ricardo Energy & Environment, Scotland’s Rural College, the Sustainable Gas Institute, SYSTRA, University College London, and Vivid Economics. Our three expert Advisory Groups: International Advisory Group: Peter Betts (Chair), Mike Barry (Marks & Spencer), Bernice Lee (Chatham House), Nick Mabey (E3G), Prof Jim Skea (Imperial College London), Prof Julia Steinberger (University of Leeds); Costs and Benefits Advisory Group: Prof Paul Ekins (University College London, Chair), Mallika Ishwaran (Shell), Rain Newton-Smith (CBI), Philip Summerton (Cambridge Econometrics), Prof Karen Turner (University of Strathclyde), Dimitri Zenghelis (London School of Economics); UK Net-Zero Advisory Group: Prof Jim Watson (UK Energy Research Centre and University College London, Chair), George Day (Energy Systems Catapult), Michelle Hubert (independent), Prof Peter Taylor (University of Leeds), Dr Naomi Vaughan (University of East Anglia). Members appeared in their personal capacities. A number of organisations and stakeholders for their input and support: Aldersgate Group; Emma Bulmer, Jenna O’Byrne, James Foster, Kate Hughes, David Hynes, Chris Nicholls, Hugh Salway, Matt Scott, Nat Smith, Steve Smith, Oliver Sutton, and Archie Young (BEIS); the CBI; Sara Celentano; Jonathan Church (ClientEarth); Morna Cannon, James Kopka, Dai Richards, Nathan Warren, and Harriet Willetts (DfT); Dr Charlie Wilson (University of East Anglia); Energy Systems Catapult; Dustin Benton (Green Alliance); Historic England; Historic Environment Scotland; Habiba Daggash, Mathilde Fajardy, Dr Ajay Gambhir, Dr Rob Gross, Dr Phil Heptonstall, Dr Niall MacDowell, Dr Tamaryn Napp, and Dr Joeri Rogelj (Imperial College London); Prof John Barrett and Dr Anne Owen (University of Leeds); Dr Kate Scott (University of Manchester); the Met Office; National Infrastructure Commission; Nick Francis (National Infrastructure Commission); Prof Nick Eyre (Oxford University); Judith Bates (Ricardo Energy & Environment); the Royal Society; the Scottish Government; Greg Archer (Transport & Environment); Tim Page (TUC); Steve Pye (University College London); Alex Kazaglis (Vivid Economics); the Welsh Government; and Rebecca Willis. A wide range of stakeholders who participated in workshops, engaged with us, submitted evidence or met with the Committee bilaterally. Acknowledgements 3 Contents The Committee 5 ________________________________________________________________ Executive summary 10 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 1: Principles and approach in considering the UK’s long-term climate targets 38 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 2: Climate science and international circumstances 54 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 3: An appropriate UK contribution to the global effort 82 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 4: Supporting increased global ambition 112 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 5: Reaching net-zero emissions in the UK 136 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 6: Delivering a net-zero emissions target for the UK 174 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 7: Costs and benefits of a net-zero target for the UK 212 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 8: Recommendations 256 4 Net Zero - The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming | Committee on Climate Change The Committee The Rt. Hon John Gummer, Lord Deben, Chairman Lord Deben was the UK’s longest-serving Secretary of State for the Environment (1993 to 1997). He has held several other high-level ministerial posts, including Secretary of State for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (1989 to 1993). He has consistently championed the strong links between environmental concerns and business interests. Lord Deben also runs Sancroft, a corporate responsibility consultancy working with blue-chip companies around the world on environmental, social and ethical issues. He is Chairman of Valpak Limited and the Personal Investment Management and Financial Advice Association. Baroness Brown of Cambridge FRS Baroness Brown of Cambridge DBE FREng FRS (Julia King) is an engineer, with a career spanning senior engineering and leadership roles in industry and academia. She currently serves as Chair of the CCC’s Adaptation Committee; non-executive director of the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult; and Chair of the Carbon Trust. She was non-executive director of the Green Investment Bank, she led the King Review on decarbonising transport (2008). She is a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering and of the Royal Society, and was awarded DBE for services to higher education and technology. She is a crossbench Peer and a member of the House of Lords European Union Select Committee. Professor Keith Bell Keith Bell is a co-Director of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) and a Chartered Engineer. In addition to teaching and being involved with energy system research in collaboration with academic and industrial partners, he has a number of additional roles including with the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, The IET Power Academy, the Conseil International des Grands Réseaux Electriques (CIGRE), the European Energy Research Alliance and as ScottishPower Chair in Smart Grids at the University of Strathclyde. Keith has also advised the Scottish Government, Ofgem, BEIS and the Government of Ireland on electricity system issues. The Committee 5 Professor Nick Chater Nick Chater is Professor of Behavioural Science at Warwick Business School. He has particular interests in the cognitive and social foundations of rationality, and applying behavioural insights to public policy and business. Nick is Co-founder and Director of Decision Technology Ltd, a research consultancy. He has previously held the posts of Professor of Psychology at both Warwick University and University College London (UCL), and Associate Editor for the journals Cognitive Science, Psychological Review, Psychological Science and Management Science. Professor Piers Forster Professor Forster is Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate and Professor of Physical Climate Change at the University of Leeds. He has played a significant role authoring Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, and is a coordinating lead author role for the IPCC’s sixth assessment report. Professor Forster established the forest protection and research charity, the United Bank of Carbon, and has a number of roles advising industry, including membership of the Rolls Royce Environment Advisory Board. Dr Rebecca Heaton Rebecca Heaton is Head of Sustainability and Policy at Drax Group. She is responsible for the sustainability of the global forest supply chains used to produce biomass for its power station, and for research and policy work. She has extensive experience working for a number of energy businesses on a range of topics, including: biofuels, land-use and forestry and climate change adaptation. Paul Johnson Paul Johnson is Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and a visiting professor at University College London (UCL). He is widely published on the economics of public policy and is a columnist for The Times. He was previously director of public spending at HM Treasury and Chief Economist at the Department for Education. He was awarded a CBE for services to economics and social science in 2018. 6 Net Zero - The UK’s contribution to stopping global