Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific STUDY OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSIONS Bonny Lin, Michael S. Chase, Jonah Blank, Cortez A. Cooper III, Derek Grossman, Scott W. Harold, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Lyle J. Morris, Logan Ma, Paul Orner, Alice Shih, Soo Kim C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR4412 For more information on this series, visit www.rand.org/US-PRC-influence Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0518-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: globe: jcrosemann/GettyImages; flags: luzitanija/Adobe Stock Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface What are influence and competition for influence? What are the United States and China competing for in the Indo-Pacific? How can we measure influence? How do countries in the Indo-Pacific view the United States, China, and U.S.-China competition? How could the United States work more effectively with allies and partners? In this report, we attempt to answer these questions as part of a broader study of how U.S. allies and partners are responding to U.S.-China competition. The other reports in this series are available at www.rand.org/US-PRC-influence. The research reported here was sponsored by Brig Gen Michael P. Winkler (PACAF/A5/8) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2019 project titled “Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo- Pacific” that assists the Air Force in evaluating U.S. and Chinese influence and assessing possible Air Force, joint force, and U.S. government options. This report should be of value to the national security community and interested members of the general public, especially those with an interest in U.S.-China competition in the Indo- Pacific. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the project leader, Bonny Lin. Research was completed in September 2019. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Department of the Air Force’s (DAF’s) federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses, supporting both the United States Air Force and the United States Space Force. PAF provides the DAF with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf This report documents work originally shared with the DAF in September 2019. The draft report, issued in January 2020, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and DAF subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xiii Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... xiv 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Research Scope, Design, and Methodology ............................................................................... 4 Focused on Peacetime Competition for Influence in Southeast Asia ....................................................... 4 Research Design and Methodology .......................................................................................................... 5 3. What Are Influence and Competition for Influence? ................................................................. 8 Influence: Ability to Shape the Behavior of Other Actors ....................................................................... 8 Competition for Influence: Competition over Partner Alignment ............................................................ 8 4. What Are the United States and China Competing for in the Indo-Pacific? ............................ 12 Divergent U.S. and Chinese Visions and Objectives for Southeast Asia ............................................... 12 Using Overlapping Priorities to Assess Intensity of U.S.-China Competition ....................................... 27 5. How Can We Measure and Assess Influence? ......................................................................... 29 Framework for Measuring and Assessing Relative Influence ................................................................ 29 “Winning” the Competition for Influence .............................................................................................. 33 6. How Do Regional Countries View U.S. Versus PRC Influence? ............................................. 35 Regional Views of Relative U.S. and Chinese Influence ....................................................................... 35 Chinese Views of Relative U.S. and Chinese Influence ......................................................................... 50 Comparing Regional and PRC Perspectives ........................................................................................... 61 7. How Could the United States Work More Effectively with Allies and Partners? .................... 66 Direct, Bilateral Cooperation .................................................................................................................. 66 Working with Allies and Close Partners in Third Countries .................................................................. 75 8. Conclusions and Recommendations ......................................................................................... 84 What Are Influence and Competition for Influence? ............................................................................. 84 What Are the United States and China Competing for in the Indo-Pacific? .......................................... 85 How Can We Measure and Assess Influence? ....................................................................................... 85 How Do Regional Countries View U.S. Versus PRC Influence? .......................................................... 86 How Could the United States Work More Effectively with Allies and Partners? .................................. 88 Appendix A. Basic Identification of U.S. Objectives ................................................................... 92 Appendix B. Detailed Framework Variable Coding ..................................................................... 93 iv Appendix C. Chinese Views of Current U.S., Allied, and Partner Efforts ................................. 102 Appendix D. Top U.S. Allied and Partner Security Providers for Southeast Asia ..................... 105 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................... 108 v Figures Figure 1.1. The Indo-Pacific Region and Countries Examined in This Study ............................... 2 Figure 4.1. Strategic Chokepoints in Southeast Asia .................................................................... 15 Figure 4.2. Assessing Intensity of U.S.-China Competition (2018) ............................................. 27 Figure 5.1. Notional Ways to Conceptualize Sufficient U.S. Versus Chinese Influence ............. 34 Figure 6.1. PLA Bilateral Service Military Exercises in the Indo-Pacific (2002–2018) .............. 50 Figure 6.2. Perceptions of U.S. and PRC Ability to Incentivize or Coerce Southeast Asia (Notional, 2018) .....................................................................................................................