Proceedings of the 9th U.S.-Japan Natural Resources Panel for Earthquake Research Edited By Shane T. Detweiler and William Ellsworth Open-File Report 2014–1250 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior SALLY JEWELL, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2015 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS (1–888–275–8747) For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. The abstracts by non-U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) authors in this volume are published as they were submitted. Abstracts authored entirely by non-USGS authors do not represent the views or position of the USGS or the U.S. Government and are published solely as part of this volume. Suggested citation: Detweiler, S., and Ellsworth, W., eds., 2015, Proceedings of the 9th U.S.-Japan natural resources panel for earthquake research: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014–1250, 89 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20141250. ISSN 2331-1258 (online) TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction____________________________________________________________1 Agenda________________________________________________________________2 Session I Abstracts______________________________________________________7 Yuki Hatanaka “Interplate coupling on and around the focal area of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Japan”_________________________________________8 Fred Chester “Location and structure of the subduction thrust in the region of maximum slip during the 2011 MW 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake”_____________________________10 Toshiya Fujiwara “Coseismic fault rupture reaching the trench axis during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake”___________________________________________________________12 Mark Simons “The 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) Project for Natural Hazard Monitoring and Response”____________________14 Makoto Matsubara “The 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake related to a strong velocity gradient within the Pacific plate”__________________________________________________16 Shuo Ma “Uncovering the Mysteries of Tsunami Generation and Anomalous Seismic Radiation in the Shallow Subduction Zone”_____________________________________________19 Yasuto Kuwahara “Stress states before and after the 2011 Great Tohoku earthquake in and around the focal region”__________________________________________________21 Eileen L. Evans and Brendan J. Meade “Geodetic imaging of coseismic slip and postseismic afterslip: Sparsitypromoting methods applied to the great Tohoku Earthquake”_____23 Takashi Saito “GSI activities in response to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake”___________________________________________________________24 Session II Abstracts____________________________________________________26 Art Frankel “USGS Seismic Hazard Mapping Efforts: U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps and Urban Seismic Hazard Maps Based on 3D Simulations”_________________________27 Koshun Yamaoka “National Policy and Project on the Earthquake Research after the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake”_____________________________________30 i Margaret Glasscoe “E-DECIDER: Experiences Developing Earthquake Disaster Decision Support and Response Tools”_____________________________________________________32 Hiroyuki Fujiwara “Some considerations for improvement of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan”_____________________________________________________________34 Morgan Moschetti “Time-independent earthquake forecasts for the Intermountain West, United States” ____________________________________________________36 Session III Abstracts____________________________________________________38 Bruce Jaffe “Assessing Tsunami Hazard from Paleotsunami Deposits”____________________39 Masanobu Shishikura “Strategy for evaluating giant earthquake and tsunami by coastal paleoseismology”_______________________________________________________40 Takeshi Koizumi “JMA's response to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake and planned Improvements of Tsunami Warning”_________________________________42 Session IV Abstracts____________________________________________________44 Dominic Asimaki “Nonlinear site and topography effects in ground motion predictions: Observations, Hypotheses and Lessons to be learned”__________________________45 Shin Aoi “Strong motion characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake observed by K-NET and KiK-net”___________________________________________________________47 Lisa Grant-Ludwig “Reconciling precariously balanced rocks with large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault system”____________________________________________________49 Session V Abstracts_____________________________________________________50 Jeremy Zechar “Betting against the house and peer-to-peer gambling: a Monte Carlo view of earthquake forecasting”__________________________________________________51 Kohei Nagata “Information services on earthquake prediction and forecast of JMA”________52 Yasuyuki Yamada “Earthquake Early Warning of JMA- The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake and its aftershocks”____________________________________________54 John Vidale “Early Warning on the US West Coast”___________________________________56 ii Session VI Abstracts____________________________________________________57 David Chadwell “Potential contributions of Seafloor Geodesy to understanding slip behavior along the Cascadia Subduction Zone”_______________________________________58 Sarah Minson “Performance Tests of Real-Time Permanent Displacement Estimates and Rapid Rupture Characterization From Real-Time High-Rate GPS”_______________________60 Andrea Donnellan “Integrating GPS and Radar Geodetic Imaging Observations with Models for Earthquake Response and Planning Additional data Collection”___________________61 Ken Xiaosheng Hao “Rapid assessment of high seismic intensity areas for mega-earthquake using satellite SAR data”__________________________________________________62 Gavin Hayes “Real-Time Monitoring at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center: Past, Present, Future”________________________________________________________64 Charles Estabrook “NSF's EarthScope Program – Introduction and Updates”_______________66 Poster Session (Session VII) Abstracts_____________________________________67 Shin Aoi “Ocean bottom seismic and tsunami network along the Japan Trench”____________68 Satoshi Kawamoto (presented by Dr. Yuki Hatanaka) “Developing a GEONET Real-time Processing System for Rapid Earthquake Modeling”____________________________70 Yasuto Kuwahara “Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project”____________________________________________72 Session VIII Abstracts __________________________________________________74 David Shelly “Dynamics of Migrating Earthquake Swarms at Yellowstone and Mount Rainier Volcanic Areas: Evidence for Fluid Triggering?”________________________________75 Takuya Nishimura “Detection of short-term slow slip events along the Nankai trough, southwest Japan using GNSS data”__________________________________________________76 Yehuda Bock, Brendan Crowell, and Diego Melgar “Mitigation of Earthquake Hazards with a Seismogeodetic Model as Demonstrated for the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki Earthquake”_78 Norio Matsumoto “Short-term slow slip events in the Kii peninsula by joint analysis of the AIST borehole strainmeter array and the NIED Hi-net tiltmeter array”__________________79 iii Bunichiro Shibazaki “3D quasi-dynamic modeling of cycles of megathrust earthquakes along the Japan Trench subduction zone considering high-speed friction”__________________80 Wayne Thatcher “Advantages and Limitations of Cluster Analysis in Interpreting Regional GPS Velocity Fields in California and Elsewhere”__________________________________81 Kazushige Obara “Characteristic activity of tremor as proxy for slow slip in the transition zone along the subducting plate interface”_______________________________________83 Justin Rubinstein “Repeating Earthquakes on the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas: Do They Reload Themselves?”_____________________________________________85 Keynote Talk Abstracts _________________________________________________87 David Wald “Earthquake loss modeling on a global scale: balancing empirical & physics-based approaches”___________________________________________________________ 88 Meghan Miller “UNAVCO: Recent Earthquake Responses, Multi-hazard Networks, and Technology Development” _______________________________________________89 iv Introduction The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced study toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Ninth Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both the U.S. and Japan. The meeting included productive