Institute for the Study of Social Change Insight Nine Regional population trends in Tasmania: Issues and options Lisa Denny and Nyree Pisanu Institute for the Study of Social Change University of Tasmania Contents Overview 1 Key findings 1 Policy recommendations 2 Introduction 3 Section 1: Population change at a sub-state level: Tasmania’s LGAs 4 Section 2: Explaining sub-state depopulation 5 Section 3: The demographic profile of Tasmania’s LGAs 6 Section 4: Population projections for Tasmania’s LGAs 8 Section 5: Policy implications 9 Case studies 12 Acknowledgements 13 Approach This report provides new insights into regional population trends in Tasmania through the creation of demographic profiles for each of the 29 LGAs in Tasmania. The analysis focuses on both the five-year period from 2013 to 2018 and the two-year period from 2016 to 2018, using several population datasets from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). These profiles are defined according to factors that contribute to demographic development – natural change, the difference between births and deaths and net migration due to internal migration1 (within Australia) and overseas migration. This framework yields nine distinct demographic profiles that allows analysis of change in any local area resulting from the recent acceleration in state level population growth. The analysis reveals areas of concentrated growth or decline, the drivers of change and how they differ between and across spatial and administrative boundaries. These profiles provide significant insights into demographic change being experienced in each LGA. They can be used to develop appropriate policy responses for the needs of an area. 1 Internal migration is migration within a country. It is the movement of people from one region to another within Australia (both interstate and intrastate). Net regional internal migration is the net gain or loss of population through this movement. ii Overview Government and the wider • Over the next 25 years to 2042, Key findings it is projected that the populations community assume that • Tasmania is experiencing its strongest for 14 LGAs will grow, while the Tasmania’s population will rate of population growth in almost remaining 15 LGAs will experience a decade. Despite this growth, the population decline. continue to increase. population is projected to enter decline — Only four LGAs are projected by mid-century due to the ageing of the to experience natural increase There is an obvious reason for this: the population. by 2042, all others are expected State’s population has risen more rapidly • Population ageing heralds the end of to experience ongoing natural than expected in recent years and the population growth and the start of decline. Tasmanian Government has set a target depopulation. • Structural population ageing within for further increases out to 2050. • Depopulation occurs first at a sub-state Tasmania’s LGAs is being caused by age But the often-overlooked reality is that the level before becoming a statewide issue. selective migration, that is, the loss of best population projections suggest the • The nature of aggregated statewide younger people and gain of older people number of people living in Tasmania will data masks the true picture of how to an area. start to decline by mid-century. the population is changing within the • While population ageing and Population change is already uneven across state. The situation differs substantially eventual decline is an unprecedented the State. between the 29 LGAs, the designated phenomenon, it is occurring on a global planning authorities in the State. scale, as such, the experience is not Migration from interstate and overseas has • Prolonged economic restructuring unique to Tasmania. helped drive an overall increase in recent has manifested in uneven patterns • The complexity of depopulation years, but this has overwhelmingly favoured of regional development and thus defies generic or ‘best practice’ policy the major cities. More than half of the demographic development – the size responses and systematic evidence State’s 29 local government areas (LGAs) and structure of a population – leading in relation to the effectiveness of are already losing population and decline to large-scale, differential population policy interventions has not yet been is projected for most of the remaining change within Tasmania. established. areas over the next 25 years. — 20 LGAs have a median age older • However, there are three broad types This report provides a detailed analysis of that the State’s median age of of policy responses to population ageing regional population trends across Tasmania. 42.3 years. and decline: It analyses the factors driving different Of the 29 LGAs in Tasmania, since 2016: — strategic intervention to mitigate population patterns across Tasmania’s depopulation (known as regions and considers the implications — 12 are experiencing growth, 10 of countering strategies) for population policy and future regional them driven by migration from development. Our aim is to provide an interstate or overseas. — acceptance strategies to manage evidence base for regional population — 8 are on the cusp of decline. decline and its consequences; or, 2 policy and planning in Tasmania. — 9 are in decline. — doing nothing (non-intervention) . — 28 increased their median age. • There is a consensus that any intervention policy responses need to • 16 of Tasmania’s LGAs are experiencing be place-based and driven by ‘hyper-ageing’, whereby more than community needs and aspirations. 20 per cent of the population is aged over 65 years, indicating imminent natural decline. — 3 LGAs experiencing migration- led growth are also experiencing hyper-ageing. • A new type of depopulation has emerged, one whereby natural decline (more deaths than births) prevents an area from achieving longer-term population growth. 2 For a full explanation and assessment of types of policy responses to depopulation, see commissioned report by Rachel McMillan “Strategic Interventions to Population Decline” for the Local Government Shared Services, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand. 1 Critically, policy measures attempting to Policy increase the share of growth in regional recommendations areas will struggle against natural demographic headwinds. One specific risk Population ageing and eventual is that regions will compete to retain or depopulation is a reality facing all but attract people to the detriment of other a handful of developing countries. As regions and the State as a whole. migration and population growth are increasingly concentrated in cities, There is an opportunity to address the depopulation usually occurs in regional implications of population decline through communities first. However, the causes policy intervention. An appropriate starting of depopulation are complex and vary point would be a collaborative effort considerably across regions. Managing between state and local government, population ageing and projected decline is regional bodies and planning authorities to an increasingly common policy challenge develop an agreed strategic framework and for governments, but it is also without coordinated policy response. precedent. The complex and contingent causes of depopulation mean that there is no one best approach to addressing the Specific recommendations include: problem. The most appropriate response 1. The establishment of a formal advisory to population ageing will depend on local or working group to direct and context, governance frameworks and the oversee research and policy advice on community and political will to respond. population change across Tasmania and its implications. It would be similar to While the current policy response from the the now defunct Demographic Change State Government to projected population Advisory Council (DCAC). decline is to grow Tasmania’s population, there appears a reluctance to accept 2. The development of a collaborative the nature of population change and its framework between and within tiers of consequences. government to address the challenges and opportunities associated with The Tasmanian Government has developed population change including the a state-level population strategy in provision of infrastructure and services response to the demographic challenges at a local area level. facing the State. This report argues that we 3. The development of an appropriate need to build on this foundation by: planning framework and settlement 1. Acknowledging that even during plan, to account for population change periods of strong population growth, and movement at a sub-state level to demographic development profiles at inform planning of local settlements, a local government area level will vary services and infrastructure. significantly; and 4. Committing to collecting, analysing 2. Accepting and planning for the fact and sharing data and undertaking that many regions within Tasmania will scenario modelling to inform effective experience population decline in the decision making, including policy short-to-medium term and, based on development, infrastructure investment projections prepared by both the ABS and service provision, particularly at a and the Tasmanian Treasury, the State is community level. likely to enter population decline from around mid-century. Failure to plan for this demographic shift poses serious long-term risks. 2 Introduction In 2013 the ABS projected that Tasmania’s While this has been the objective of the change. The distinct