1.011 PROJECT EVALUATION OCEANSIDE-ESCONDIDO RAIL PROJECT NORTH SAN DIEGO COUNTY TRANSIT DISTRICT Above: Rendering of Example Station Right: DMU Train Bottom: Cal-State San Marcos Station JOHN R. VELASCO UNDERGRADUATE SPRING 2003 1.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 Executive Summary A Brief Project History State Route (SR) 78 is one of the most heavily traveled freeways in San Diego County. Despite recent improvements, it exceeded capacity by the year 2000 and will continue to experience significant increases in traffic demand in the coming decades. For a period of 15 years, there have been a number of transportation studies specifically to identity feasible and cost-effective solutions to the growing transportation needs of northern San Diego County along the SR-78 corridor. Participants in these studies have included SANDAG (San Diego Association of Governments), Caltrans, NCTC (North County Transit District), and the jurisdictions of Oceanside, Carlsbad, Vista, San Marcos, Escondido, and the County of San Diego. The study recommended a multimodal approach which includes the provision of passenger rail service over the existing railway right-of-way (ROW), highway improvements, and subregional arterial network improvements. A 1987 study conducted by SANDAG that included a detailed analysis of transit alternatives recommended DMU (diesel multiple-unit) as the preferred rail technology for the SR-78 corridor. In 1987, Proposition A was passed by San Diego voters authorizing the establishment of TRANSNET Funds for local transportation projects which included the Oceanside-Escondido Rail Project. The Oceanside-Escondido Rail Project has a number of objectives it aims to fulfill: - provide an alternative mode of transportation to the automobile in the SR-78 corridor; - alleviate the traffic along this crucial corridor between the coastal and inland North County; - satisfy the public mandate, expressed in voter approval of proposition A in 1987 to finance significant transportation improvements; - provide an efficient non-automobile linkage to some of the area’s key destinations and employment centers; - reduce auto-related air emissions, thereby contributing to the improvement of regional air quality; and - support local land use efforts to revitalize underutilized areas and to assist in the growth of targeted development areas. Source: Environmental Assessment/Subsequent Environmental Impact Report for the Oceanside--Escondido Rail Project, NCTD, 1996. -1- 1.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 To meet these goals, the proposed project consists of improving 22 miles of existing railroad ROW between the Oceanside and Escondido Transit Centers and adding 1.7 miles of new rail to Cal-State University San Marcos thereby establishing a complete new passenger rail system including new vehicles, stations, a maintenance facility, and ROW improvements. Analysis In analyzing the Oceanside-Escondido Rail Project, I reviewed the major issues of transit congestion that plague the region, as well as several alternatives to solving the problems of congestion and continuing growth. In analyzing each alternative, I briefly examine the costs and benefits. In covering these different alternatives I will approach the discussion in a qualitative manner, as specific numbers for the alternatives (in terms of costs and benefits) were difficult to obtain. I have also covered the proposed alternative with more in depth discussion, with financial analyses, the costs and benefits both in qualitative and as well as quantitative terms. Additionally, the uncertainties of the project will be considered and a scenarios dealing with uncertainty will be presented. Analysis of how the projects costs and benefits might change given this scenario will also be conducted. Recommendation My recommendation to the parties involved (NCTD, Caltrans, SANDAG, and local governments) will be to proceed with the project as planned. The current proposal, as it stands, is the most economically feasible and sustainable alternative. The costs of the No-Action Alternative are too high—as the population of North San Diego County is expected to grow 74.5 % from 1990 (447,048) to 2015 (780,082)—based on current projections (US Census 2000). As population grows, the demand for housing, jobs, and alternative modes of transportation will continue to grow. SR-78 has reached full-capacity and it is neither financially nor physically possible to expand it from 6 to 8 lanes as it would require the reconstruction of numerous bridges and the displacement of a large number of North County residents and businesses. Therefore I recommend the project based not only on the demonstrated need, but also on the low costs (per mile of construction) and the numerous benefits such as decreased congestion and emissions, that it will bring to the region in the years to come. -2- 1.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 Background History The Oceanside-Escondido Rail Project includes approximately 15 stations serving the 22-mile alignment along existing right-of-way that NCTD purchased in 1990 for $43.4 million dollars. According to a survey conducted by NCTD, 78% of North County residents believe that traffic on SR-78 is a major issue. SR-78 is a heavily-traveled corridor with moderate to severe congestion with 145,000 vehicle trips/day. With the estimated 74% increase in population from 1990 to 2015, it is likely that traffic will continue to be a major issue along the corridor (US Census, 2000). A thorough listing of the reasons behind the need for the project is provided below, divided by the major project components: the main line and the Cal-State San Marcos Loop. Below: Map of the Proposed Oceanside-Escondido Rail Line (Source: North County Transit District) -3- 1.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 MAIN LINE This portion of the project is along the existing NCTD owned ROW from Oceanside to Escondido. Traffic Conditions SR-78 serves as the main east-west route in North San Diego County between Interstate 15 (I-15) and Interstate 5 (I-5). It is anchored by the two largest cities in the North County—Oceanside and Escondido. The nearest expressways that run parallel to SR-78 are SR-76, 15 miles to the north, and SR-56, yet to be completed, 15 miles to the south. The SR-78 corridor contains a mixture of different zones ranging from residential to commercial, industrial, and educational with Cal-State San Marcos and Palomar College. Despite the widening of the corridor from 4 to 6 lanes nearly a decade ago, it reached capacity by the year 2000; congestion continues to occur on a daily basis. The California Department of Transportation (CalTrans) has said in its evaluation of the corridor that it may be economically infeasible to expand the highway to 8-lanes due to ROW (right-of-way) constraints. Although Caltrans has plans to improve SR-78 that including upgrading interchanges, ramp metering, and adding auxiliary lanes, forecasts still indicate increases in traffic in the years to come. These increases are attributed to the local street networks which are inadequate for short intraregional trips, forcing those who might usually take surface streets to have to use the freeway for shorter trips. Growth SANDAG currently identifies northern San Diego County as one of the fastest growing areas in California as families are flocking to Southern California for its beautiful year-round weather and job opportunities. The population along the SR-78 corridor alone is expected to grow by 74.5% from 1990 to 2015—an increase of over 300,000 people, which greatly exceeds the current projections for the rest of San Diego county at 45% (Census 2000). -4- 1.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 This large increase in population creates a demand for additional housing. The number of housing units along the SR-78 corridor is expected to grow from 175,781 units in 1990 to 293,060 units in 2015—growing 40%. Despite slow economic growth in San Diego, the employment growth in the cities along the corridor is expected to increase by a total of 58.6% from 165,725 jobs in 1990 to a total of 262, 869 jobs by 2015. The employment growth rate in this corridor is over twice that of the San Diego region (SANDAG). Increasing Demand The strongest trip demand from the communities of the North County is for coastal and inland access, which SR-78 provides. Travel along the SR-78/Palomar Airport Road (which runs parallel to SR-78) corridor between the coastal and inland areas produces the second largest travel corridor in the region, and according to SANDAG, it will host 93,359 “person-trip travel movements” between corridor jurisdictions per day—an increase of nearly 84% from 1990. (Note: A person-trip movement is defined as a trip in which a person moves over 2 miles along this corridor). CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY SAN MARCOS LOOP Cal State San Marcos is in desperate need of an alternate mode of transportation to the campus due to projected enrollment growth and limited arterial access. Currently at 8,000 students, faculty and staff, it is expected to grow to around 18,000 (based on full-time enrollment even though some students attend part-time) by 2020 (Cal-State San Marcos). The actual number of persons going to and from campus on a daily basis is likely to be 45,000-50,000, according to university projections. CSU San Marcos included in their EIR (Environmental Impact Report) a mandate requiring some form of nonautomobile transportation to mitigate the intense traffic impact that will be placed on the surrounding area. -5- 1.011 Project Evaluation John R. Velasco Professor Carl Martland Spring, 2003 Alternatives In the transit studies that were conducted by SANDAG in collaboration with NCTD and other local and federal agencies, there were a number of alternatives considered.