SEDAR Southeast Data, Assessment, and Review SEDAR 69 Benchmark Stock Assessment Report Atlantic Menhaden January 2020 SEDAR 4055 Faber Place Drive, Suite 201 North Charleston, SC 29405 Please cite this document as: SEDAR. 2020. SEDAR 69 – Atlantic Menhaden Benchmark Stock Assessment Report. SEDAR, North Charleston SC. 691 pp. available online at: http://sedarweb.org/sedar-69 Table of Contents Pages of each Section are numbered separately. Section I: Preface Pg. 4 Section II Assessment Process Report Pg. 5 Section III: Review Workshop report Pg. 486 Section IV: Appendices Pg. 504 1. Preface The development and peer review of the 2019 Atlantic Menhaden Stock Assessment occurred through a joint Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) and Southeast Data, Assessment, and Review (SEDAR) process. From April 2018 to June 2019, the ASMFC coordinated a Data Workshop and three Assessment Workshops in Arlington, Virginia, and Raleigh, North Carolina, while SEDAR coordinated the Review Workshop in Charleston, South Carolina. The report is the culmination of a two-year effort to gather and analyze available data for Atlantic menhaden from the fishery-independent sampling programs of the Atlantic States, commercial purse-seine reduction fishery, and commercial bait fishery. ASMFC developed the stock assessment through its Atlantic Menhaden Technical Committee (TC) and Stock Assessment Subcommittee (SAS). The ASMFC facilitated numerous conference calls and webinars in preparation for the Data, Assessment, and Review Workshops. Participants in the stock assessment process included TC and SAS members, as well as representatives from the fishing industry and Non- Governmental Organizations with an interest in menhaden. In addition to the single-species menhaden stock assessment report, an Ecosystem Reference Points (ERP) stock assessment report was developed by the ASMFC Ecosystem Reference Points Work Group, and reviewed by the SEDAR 69 Panel. The ASMFC facilitated several webinars and meetings of the Work Group, coinciding with the Menhaden SAS meetings, to develop the ERP Assessment. The ERP report describes ecosystem monitoring and modeling approaches, and provides reference points designed to address multispecies interactions for a subset of stocks managed by the ASMFC, including management of menhaden for forage services in a broader ecosystem management context. The SEDAR 69 single-species stock assessment report and ERP stock assessment report were generated and provided to three reviewers appointed by the Center for Independent Experts (CIE), as well as a fourth technical reviewer and the review panel chair appointed by ASMFC. The Review Workshop was held in Charleston, South Carolina, from November 4-8, 2019. At the Workshop, reviewers had opportunities to raise questions to the SAS and ERP WG, and provide critiques and constructive comments on the data and models used. A Review Workshop Report (Section III) was generated with comments and overall opinions about the data sources, models, and assessment results. The Review Report, Single-Species Stock Assessment Report, and Ecosystem Reference Points Stock Assessment Report will be provided to the ASMFC Atlantic Menhaden Management Board in February 2020. The ASMFC and its committees thank the independent peer reviewers for their time and expertise in providing a thorough review of the Atlantic menhaden stock assessment and the Ecosystem Reference Points stock assessment. Additionally, ASMFC expresses its gratitude to all of the individuals who contributed to the completion of both stock assessments. Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Atlantic Menhaden 2019 Stock Assessment Report Vision: Sustainable and Cooperative Management of Atlantic Coastal Fisheries i ASMFC Atlantic Menhaden Stock Assessment Subcommittee: Amy Schueller (Chair), National Marine Fisheries Service Kristen Anstead, Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Max Appelman, Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Joseph Ballenger, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources Jeffrey Brust, New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife Matt Cieri, Maine Department of Marine Resources Micah Dean, Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries Katie Drew, Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Robert Latour, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Jason McNamee, Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management Ray Mroch, National Marine Fisheries Service Alexei Sharov, Maryland Department of Natural Resources Chris Swanson, Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute ASMFC Atlantic Menhaden Technical Committee: Joseph Ballenger (Chair), South Carolina Department of Natural Resources Jeffrey Brust, New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife Matt Cieri, Maine Department of Marine Resources Ellen Cosby, Potomac River Fisheries Commission Caitlin Craig, New York Department of Environmental Conservation Micah Dean, Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries Corrin Flora, North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality Kurt Gottschall, Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection Robert Latour, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Eddie Leonard, Georgia Department of Natural Resources Jason McNamee, Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management Ray Mroch, National Marine Fisheries Service Josh Newhard, US Fish and Wildlife Service Derek Orner, National Marine Fisheries Service Amy Schueller, National Marine Fisheries Service Alexei Sharov, Maryland Department of Natural Resources Chris Swanson, Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute Jeff Tinsman, Delaware Division of Fish and Wildlife A publication of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award No. NA15NMF4740069_______ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission thanks all of the individuals who contributed to the development of the Atlantic menhaden stock assessment. The Commission specifically thanks the ASMFC Atlantic Menhaden Technical Committee and Stock Assessment Subcommittee (SAS) members who developed the consensus stock assessment report as well as the Atlantic Coastal Cooperative Statistics Program staff Julie Defilippi Simpson for validating landings. Thank you to Harvey Walsh (NOAA) for his immense help providing data and support for the EcoMon data set, Kevin Friedland and Scott Large (NEFSC) for their work and continued dialogue with the SAS regarding the Ecosystem Context Report for Atlantic Menhaden, James Gartland for contributing to the fecundity analysis, and Jeremy Collie and Rich Bell for discussing and adapting their stock productivity analysis for the SAS. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this assessment was to evaluate the current status of Atlantic menhaden as a single-species along the U.S. Atlantic coast. Landings The Atlantic menhaden commercial fishery has two major components, a purse-seine reduction sector that harvests fish for fish meal and oil and a bait sector that supplies bait to other commercial and recreational fisheries. The first coastwide total allowable catch (TAC) for Atlantic menhaden was implemented in 2013 at 170,800 mt. While the TAC increased to 187,880 mt in 2015, 200,000 mt in 2016, and 216,000 mt in 2017, total coastwide landings have remained under 200,000 mt. Since the implementation of the TAC, reduction landings have ranged from 128,900 mt in 2017 to 143,500 mt in 2015 and the bait landings have ranged from 37,000 mt in 2013 to 45,500 in 2015. In 2017, reduction landings were 128,900 mt and accounted for approximately 74% of coastwide landings. Landings in the reduction fishery are currently at their lowest levels in the time series (1955-2017). In contrast, bait landings have increased in recent years as demand has grown because of recent limitations in other species used as bait (e.g., Atlantic herring), peaking in 2012 at 63,700 mt. In 2017, bait landings were 43,900 mt and comprised 25% of coastwide landings. Recreational landings comprised 1% of the coastwide landings. Indices of Relative Abundance Young of the Year (YOY) Index The YOY index developed from 16 fishery-independent surveys shows the largest YOY abundance occurred during the 1970s and 1980s. Abundance has since been lower with notable year classes in the mid-2000s and in 2016. The terminal year, 2017, had the lowest YOY abundance of the time series (1959-2017). Age-1+ Indices Three coastwide indices of adult abundance were developed from eight fishery independent survey data sets: northern (NAD; age-2+), Mid-Atlantic (MAD; age-1+), and southern (SAD; age- 1) adult indices. The SAD indicated that age-1 abundance was high in 1990 and low in recent years, with a notable increase in the terminal year of 2017. The MAD showed high relative abundance in the late 1980s, with variable abundance and then peaks in 2014 and 2015 followed by low abundance in the terminal year. The NAD indicated that age-2+ relative abundance has been variable, but abundance was high in 2014, 2015, and 2016, followed by a decline in the terminal year. Fishing Mortality Highly variable fishing mortalities were noted throughout the entire time series and appear dependent upon fishing and management policies. Fishing mortality rate over time was reported as the geometric mean fishing mortality rate at ages-2 to -4. The rate was highest in the 1970s and 1980s and has been declining since approximately 1990. Atlantic Menhaden Benchmark Stock Assessment 2019 iv Biomass Biomass has fluctuated over time from an estimated high of greater