RESULTS FROM WAVE XIV OF TRACKING SURVEYS 1 July 2004 Methodology • Waves I, II, IX, and X surveys were conducted using face-to-face interviews with 1250 respondents (each wave), selected by multi-stage random sampling of eligible voters throughout each of the 32 provinces of Indonesia. The Wave III survey was conducted in half the sampled locations throughout the country in 16 provinces with 1000 respondents, and the Wave IV survey was conducted in the rest of the sampled locations, in the other 16 provinces, with 1000 respondents. Each of the Waves V to VIII surveys were conducted in 8 different provinces with 1000 respondents in each Wave, for a national total of 4000 respondents covering all provinces. The Wave XI survey was conducted in half the sampled locations throughout the country in 16 provinces with 1000 respondents, and the Wave XII survey was conducted in the rest of the sampled locations, in 15 provinces, with 1000 respondents. The Wave XIII survey was conducted in 31 provinces with 1250 respondents. The province of Maluku was omitted from the Wave XII and Wave XIII surveys due to security problems. The Wave XIV survey was conducted in 32 provinces with 2000 respondents. • The composition of the data in Wave I, Wave II, Waves III and IV combined, Waves V through VIII combined, Wave IX, Wave X, Waves XI and XII combined, Wave XIII, and Wave XIV reflects the rural/urban, men/women and inter-provincial proportions of the Indonesian population. • The margin of error for the national data for each wave in Waves I, II, IX, X, and XIII is +/- 2.8% at a 95% confidence level. The margin of error for each of the combined Waves III/IV, Wave XI/XII, and Wave XIV data is +/- 2.2% at a 95% confidence level. The margin of error for the combined Waves V through VIII data is +/-1.55% at a 95% confidence level. • For Wave I, the face-to-face interviews were conducted between 13 and 18 December 2003. For Wave II, the interviews were conducted betwe26en 12 and 15 January 2004. For Wave III, the interviews were conducted between January 26 and February 1. For Wave IV, the interviews were conducted between February 1 and 6. For Wave V, the dates of interviews were February 15-19; for Wave VI, February 21-25; for Wave VII, February 27-March 2; for Wave VIII, March 6-10 (the day before the commencement of the election campaign). For Wave IX, face-to-face interviews were conducted between March 21 and 28, 2004. For Wave X, face-to-face interviews were conducted between April 7 and 14, 2004. For Wave XI, face-to-face interviews were conducted between April 20 and 27. For Wave XII, face-to-face interviews were conducted between May 1 and 8. For Wave XIII, face-to-face interviews were conducted between June 4 and 9. For Wave XIV, face-to-face interviews were conducted between June 17 and 26. • In this report, any data from the Wave I, Wave II, Waves III/IV, Waves V through VIII surveys, Wave IX, Wave X, Waves XI/XII, and Wave XIII is specifically cited in the charts and text. All other data points are from Wave XIV survey. Regional breakdowns reflect data from the Wave XIV survey. This survey was made possible with support from USAID and UNDP Fieldwork for these surveys was managed and conducted by Polling Center 1. Likelihood of Voting in Presidential Election If in First Round… If in Second Round… No Presidential No Presidential or No Presidential No Presidential or Candidate from Vice-Presidential Candidate from Vice-Presidential Party that Candidate from Party that Candidate from Represents Party that Represents Party that OVERALL Aspiration Represents Aspiration Represents Aspiration Aspiration Very High/High 91% 82% 81% 80% 79% Probably 7% 14% 15% 16% 16% Very Little/Little/ 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% Will Not Vote • Ninety three percent of Indonesians are now aware that there will be presidential elections in July. More than ninety percent of Indonesians in the late June survey express a high willingness to vote in this election, the highest percentage recorded to date in the IFES surveys. Seven percent say that they will probably vote in the election, and 2% say there is little or no chance of them voting. The percentage of Indonesians indicating a high likelihood of voting has also gone up significantly in cases where a respondent’s favored party may not have a presidential or vice-presidential candidate in the elections. Close to 80% or more say there is a high likelihood of them voting even in the case of their party not being represented through a candidate in the election, compared to 75% or fewer in the early June survey. Respondents in Kalimantan continue to lag those in other regions of the country in indicating a high likelihood of voting in the presidential election (78%). • There continues to be a need for voter education that emphasizes the proper method for punching the ballot in the presidential election. One-third of those aware of the presidential election (33%) do not know how to correctly punch the ballot in the election (one punch for the preferred presidential/vice-presidential pair). This is a slight improvement over the 39% who were unaware of the correct way to punch the ballot in the early June survey. Among those highly likely to vote, 32% are not aware of the proper way to punch the ballot. Given the limited amount of time remaining for voter education efforts, this findings may necessitate polling station officials being diligent about informing a voter of the correct way to vote. Respondents in Kalimantan are least likely to know how to punch the ballot (47%). There has been an increase since the early June survey in the percentage of respondents who know how to punch the ballot in Sumatra (excluding Aceh, 64% versus 48% in early June) and Sulawesi (67% versus 52%). • Of those aware of the presidential elections, a majority (63%) are unaware of the correct method by which a presidential/vice-presidential pair could win the election in the first round. This percentage has not changed significantly from the early June survey. Only 5% of respondents in Kalimantan are aware of the correct method for election in the first round and 13.3% are aware in the conflict areas of Aceh, Maluku and Papua. • Thirty five percent of those aware of the presidential elections incorrectly expect that whichever candidate pair wins the most votes at the July election is automatically elected President/Vice President. This includes 41% of those who state they intend to vote for Wiranto/Wahid, 43% of those who intend to vote for Megawati/Hasyim, and 37% of those who intend to vote for SBY/Kalla. On the other hand, only 18% of those intending to vote for Amien Rais/Yudohusono have this incorrect expectation, whilst 57% of intending voters for this ticket are aware of the correct framework for a first round win. • Among those aware that a candidate pair has to win more than 50% of the national vote and more than 20% in at least half the provinces, to win the presidency in the first round, over three quarters (79%) are aware that the top two vote-getting pairs in the first round move on to a second round in September. • Ninety-one percent of Indonesians report that they have received their voters card for the presidential election. This percentage is much higher than the percentage that reported receiving their voter cards in the last IFES survey before the parliamentary elections in April (40%). Currently, respondents in the conflict areas of Aceh, Maluku and Papua are least likely to have received their voter cards (81%). • Eighty-four percent of Indonesians believe that the presidential election will, at the very least, probably be free and fair. Ten percent do not think the election will be free and fair. 2. Presidential Candidate Preference 43.5% 17.4% 14.2% 11.7% 10.9% 2.4% Susilo Bambang Wiranto Megawati Amien Rais Hamzah Haz DK/NR Yudhoyono Soekarnoputri • The data from this late June survey shows that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) is thought to be the best president for Indonesia by far more Indonesians than any other candidate and looks certain to finish with the most votes in the July election. There is, however, a close contest between former General Wiranto, President Megawati, and Amien Rais for the critical second position in the election. SBY continues to be favored by more Indonesians than the other four candidates combined (43.5% versus 39.2%). • Those who name SBY as their candidate of choice do so because of his personal characteristics and reputation. When asked to give multiple reasons why they prefer a particular candidate, 39% of SBY supporters prefer him because he is respectable, 37% because he has a good personality, 31% because he is firm, and 22% because he is honest. Wiranto supporters are more likely to cite factors emblematic of his experience as a general: firm (34%), military background (30%), good personality (22%), can provide security (17%), and respectable (12%). President Megawati is primarily preferred because of her experience in government (32%),her good personality (20%), the fact that she is a woman (14%), and because she can solve economic problems (13%). Amien Rais’ supporters look to his reputation as a democratic reformer. Forty-four percent of his supporters cite the fact that he is honest, has a good personality (30%), professional (20%), and is democratic (19%).